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IL Hawthorne racing meet-Exactas

Topic closed. 83 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Rick G.

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FEMA Region V Camp #21
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Posted: April 4, 2004, 7:52 am - IP Logged

Thanks Laverne...fancy meeting you in here!

For races 6 through 10 yesterday, the 2-5 exacta hit in the 7th for $20.20 and the 1-3 hit in the 10th for $178.

Sunday's exactas are 1-3, 2-5, 3-5, 4-5, 5-1, 6-1, 7-1, 8-4

Best to play if the probable payoff is at least $50.00.

Good luck horseplayers!

Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


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    Posted: April 5, 2004, 7:29 am - IP Logged

    WTG Rick.  You really are onto something here!  I'm going to look over Sundays races, and will update you.  Later...

      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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      Posted: April 5, 2004, 8:56 am - IP Logged

      Brdman,  I didn't too well on Sunday's card which I suppose can be expected after Saturday's results.  But I'm still working with it...it'll take awhile to figure out the betting strategy for max. profit, but there is so much more bias in horseracing pairs as compared to lottery pairs that it's worth the effort.

      Here are my exactas for Mon. listed in order of favoritism.

      3-5, 1-3, 1-4, 2-5, 6-1, 4-5, 4-3, 5-1, 5-4

      If I was actually betting, I would do one of two things; play the exactas from left to right according to my budget, or monitor them all and play only those going off at 50 bucks or more.  Because of the short fields and inner post natural bias, again I'm looking for the winner to come from 1 through 6.  Also, these are program number picks as I mentioned before...but it's working.  The program numbers are usually the same as the post numbers so I don't think it makes too much difference.  But I appreciate your dilligence in tracking the post positions because that would be more accurate.

      Good luck in the ponies and pick-3!!!

      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


        Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
        FEMA Region V Camp #21
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        Posted: April 6, 2004, 8:47 am - IP Logged

        It "seems" to be getting better as the meet progresses.  Yesterday we had 4-3 in the first for 34.40, 1-3 in the third for 10.60, 1-4 in the fourth for 77.40, and 6-1 in the eighth for 49.20.

        Tues. 4/6 exactas for all races, listed in order of preference:

        1-3, 1-4, 3-5, 6-1, 2-5, 4-3, 5-1, 5-4

        Good luck!

        Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


          LAVERNE MALONEY's avatar - smallgirl

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          Posted: April 6, 2004, 9:45 am - IP Logged

          Hello Rick G, I'm glad to see that you are forging ahead with your method. I was thinking, you said that the field was short. If you can see any background on any of the horses whether they have recently ran in short races or perhaps just coming off of a long field, that may have a bearing on who will be the winner. Horses have a keen sense, when they are racing they have their own built in striding patterns, they pace themselves according to what stretch they are use to running. It's almost like they are following a script, they have a starting speed, an intermediate speed and then the type of speed that allows them to sprint passed all other horses. If you could find out what horses usually run short fields that may narrow it down for you. This is just a sequence of thoughts that ran through my mind. I've been to the races & it was fun. 

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            Posted: April 6, 2004, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

            Well another one who likes the horses.  Been hectic this weekend around here Rick..but will post tomorrow.

              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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              Posted: April 7, 2004, 7:36 am - IP Logged

              Laverne, sorry I wasn't clearer when I referred to small fields...I meant the number of entries in the races.  While a "full field" would mean 12 entries, a short one would be like Hawthorne is averaging per race, in the 7-8 range.  That's not good for the track or the payoffs, but it makes picking a little easier.

              Tues. we had a 2-5 winner in the 6th for 36.20 and in the 8th the 5-4 hit for 140.20.  As I mentioned before you could cut way back on the amount of bets you make by concentrating on the higher probable payoffs, and thus, increase your profit.

              Here's what I have for Fri., again listed in order of favoritism.

              Program numbers:  3-5, 1-3, 1-4, 2-5, 6-1, 4-3, 4-5, 5-4, 5-1

              Good luck and good racing.....as Phil Georgeff used to say.

              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                LAVERNE MALONEY's avatar - smallgirl

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                Posted: April 7, 2004, 8:11 am - IP Logged

                That's ok Rick G, I'm sure it made for a good hearty laugh. :-)

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                  Posted: April 7, 2004, 8:37 am - IP Logged

                  No laughing here Laverne.  Anyone interested in the horses, and knowing the difficulty has my respect.  Rick is getting very close to something almost impossible.  Way to go Rick, your picks are looking good.  Here's my picks for Fridays races.  $1 tri box...146

                                                         $1 tri key..1/346

                  Boxing 4 horses is too expensive.  Good luck!

                    LAVERNE MALONEY's avatar - smallgirl

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                    Posted: April 7, 2004, 8:46 am - IP Logged

                    I'm not laughing at Rick G brdman12, I'm laughing at ME. Taking the phrase "short field" and "long field" to mean distance and length of a course. Rick G is on the cutting edge of a very promising winning $trategy.  :-)

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                      Posted: April 7, 2004, 8:58 am - IP Logged

                      Of course Laverne...sorry.  Don't mind me...lol

                      If we can find a way to predict a certain pattern with these horseracing fields the profits could be quite nice.  Because you don't have to go to 10..but only 6 or 7...your patterns should be easier.  But racing is not quite as random because of the horses talent or the trainers intent.  They say only 5% of horse players make a profit.  Lets be in that 5%!

                        Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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                        Posted: April 8, 2004, 10:52 am - IP Logged

                        You go Brdman...I like your attitude!  Hey Laverne, what you were saying about the racing distances was correct.  Trainers play the distance game all the time getting their horses in shape for a win, and you have to watch what distance the horse likes to win at.  Thanks for mentioning that because there might be some new horseplayers who can benefit from it.

                        Having spent thousands of hours poring over the Daily Racing Form each day for 20 some years and not winning much, I think the random way is the way to go.  Plus it's a hell of a lot easier and takes much less time.  My wife used to tell me that if I spent that much time studying college courses I'd have a Doctorate's degree right now...lol.

                        Anyhow, like Brdman said there is a whole lot more bias with regard to post position in horse racing making the job of picking a pair tons easier than the pick 3; and the track has only about a 17% take while the lottery is hitting you up for 50%.

                        Brdman I checked your tri's the other day and you were all over them....2 out of 3 in most races.  And I like your plays for tomorrow.

                        Let's keep at it and see if we can be part of that 5%.  I think I'm going to the track on Sat. with my sons to test out my picks and check out probable payoffs so I can get a better idea of the actual amount of bets I'd have to make.  Judging from some of the cheap exacta payoffs, I'm thinking I can limit my bets quite a bit.

                        Thanks for participating Brdman and Laverne...this is fun!

                        Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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                          Posted: April 8, 2004, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

                          Sorry to keep posting, but the way I'm going to play it at the track on Sat. is to jot down the combos with probable payoffs of $50 or more at the beginning of the probable payoffs monitoring, not at the end.  That way we can take advantage of an exacta underlay that has a good chance with some money being bet on it, and it won't be a $10.00 payoff.  Make sense?

                          From my experience underlays win 2/3 of the time and overlays 1/3.  I wouldn't want to base my betting strategy on underlays but sometimes you have to go where the money is going.

                          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


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                            Posted: April 9, 2004, 9:54 am - IP Logged

                            We have a lot in common when it comes to the Daily Racing Form ..And racing books.  But as you say, this concept of picking horses is very difficult.  Good luck this weekend!..I saw my family last weekend so am free this weekend...I might go to the otb on Sunday (if they are running).  Later...

                            Will post something for Saturday after Fridays races...

                              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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                              Posted: April 9, 2004, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

                              Brdman, what OTB do you go to?  I go to Oak Brook when I go, but I like Aurora's better.

                              Totally lost any profit today...only had the 21.60 3-5 in the third.  Outside posts were killing it!

                              Going with the following for Sat. in order of favoritsm,

                              4-5, 1-3, 1-4, 6-1, 5-1, 2-5, 3-5, 4-3

                              Good luck to all...Theresa I hope this helps you in MI.  I will update this thread after tomorrow's races.

                              Good luck tomorrow!

                              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).