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New PA Game - Mix And Match

Topic closed. 49 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Lotto Czar.

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United States
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January 23, 2005
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Posted: October 31, 2006, 10:15 pm - IP Logged

I liked the MATCH 6 game when it first came out and I sometimes play it if the Powerball jackpot is "low"... I like that it's a cash-only payout so you know what the "actual" jackpot is.

What I don't understand (and my one turn-off) is, how are the 2nd and 3rd lines really generated, being they are QP, but that it could put out a set of numbers where it's impossible to match more than 6 numbers on the entire ticket. Like if they were all different numbers! Only 6 balls are drawn but you can match 10 numbers to win so some numbers MUST repeat on line 2 and/or 3 to be ABLE TO match such a prize. I notice on most or all of my MATCH 6 plays there are many repeats. I'm just concerned that the stated odds of some prizes may not account for the use of these repeat numbers. I'd rather a game like the PICK 10 in NY where there are more balls drawn than on one ticket (20 to 10 vs. 6 to 10.)

    Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
    Harrisburg, Pa.
    United States
    Member #3093
    December 23, 2003
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    Posted: November 1, 2006, 8:37 am - IP Logged

    Not confusing for me.  That's exactly how I would mark my tickets, also; maybe using a star (though a square would work for me). 


      United States
      Member #379
      June 5, 2002
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      Posted: November 1, 2006, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

      Does anybody know what the payout percentage in Mix & Match will be? It's 53% in Match 6.

        Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
        Harrisburg, Pa.
        United States
        Member #3093
        December 23, 2003
        233 Posts
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        Posted: November 1, 2006, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

        According to my comps, 65%.  Seems sort of high for a draw game, but the hit rate is 1 in 3.57, about the same for instant tickets.  (Actually the instants have been creeping up in odds, now most over 4.) so maybe the state is weighing this against the average 35% or so of the average draw game.

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          United States
          Member #1826
          July 11, 2003
          2645 Posts
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          Posted: November 1, 2006, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

          According to my comps, 65%.  Seems sort of high for a draw game, but the hit rate is 1 in 3.57, about the same for instant tickets.  (Actually the instants have been creeping up in odds, now most over 4.) so maybe the state is weighing this against the average 35% or so of the average draw game.

          How exactly did you make your calculation?

          (insert signature here)

            Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
            Harrisburg, Pa.
            United States
            Member #3093
            December 23, 2003
            233 Posts
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            Posted: November 2, 2006, 8:39 am - IP Logged

            First, a few assumptions, that Jackpot is minimum of $50,000, and a free ticket is a $2 value.  Then taking the odds furnished by the Lottery Bureau for each prize, I calculated total number of winners per prize, which I divided by number of possible tickets.  That gave me the hit rate.  I multiplied number of winners times prize for each winning combination, totaled and divided by total cost of all tickets which is $2 by total number of tickets.

            Odds and totals are based on the PERMUTATION  of 19 numbers taken 5 at a time [Order matters],  of course 1 in 1,395,360 for the Jackpot Prize.  Matches in order are by permutation, and matches in any order drawn are by combination [order does not matter] in other words the difference between straight and boxed reuslts.

            I can try to copy my spread sheet that i composed.

             

             

            Way No.Same orderPlus anyany orderMatch PrizeMix PrizeTotal*ODDS (1 in -)#WinnersPayout
            15N/A(5 of 5)$50,000 $2,000 $52,000       1,395,360 1$52,000
            241(5 of 5)$1,000 $2,000 $3,000         139,536 10$30,000
            332(5 of 5)$100 $2,000 $2,100           69,768 20$42,000
            423(5 of 5)4$2,000 $2,004           31,008 45$90,180
            514(5 of 5)Free Ticket$2,000 $2,002           31,713 44$88,087
            640(4 of 5) $  1,000  $        20 $1,020           19,934 70$71,399
            731(4 of 5) $    100  $        20 $120           4,983 280$33,603
            822(4 of 5) $      4  $        20 $24           1,102 1,266$30,389
            913(4 of 5)Free Ticket $        20 $22             453 3,080$67,766
            1004(4 of 5) $      20  $20             376 3,711$74,221
            1130(3 of 5) $    100  $          2 $102             767 1,819$185,563
            1221(3 of 5) $      4  $          2 $6             128 10,901$65,408
            1312(3 of 5)Free Ticket $          2 $4           36.51 38,219$152,874
            1403(3 of 5) $      4  $        -  $4           23.96 58,237$232,948
            1520(2 of 5) $      4  $        -  $4           63.89 21,840$87,360
            1611(2 of 5)Free Ticket $        -  $2           10.65 131,020$262,039
            1710(1 of 5)Free Ticket $        -  $2           11.62 120,083$240,165
                *Value of Free Ticket = $2  TOTAL390,646$1,806,003
            AVERAGE3.57PAYOUT65%

             

            Looks like it came out OK.  Feel free to check the math,  But it does look like a winner.  Odds were copied from Pa.Lottery web site, although I did spot check a few.

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              Delaware
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              January 14, 2006
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              Posted: November 2, 2006, 9:54 am - IP Logged

              The best thing to do is for you to save your money right now and let UNlucky for Life die. Instead of buying 10 UNlucky for Life tickets, use it to buy a raffle ticket when they become available.

              You sound like a broken record. You only encourage me to buy more tickets to keep it going.

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                Delaware
                United States
                Member #30273
                January 14, 2006
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                Posted: November 2, 2006, 9:56 am - IP Logged

                By default, Mix & Match will be a HUGE inprovement over UNlucky for Life. However, I think the game will be more confusing than Match 6, and eventually be replaced by a "classic" lotto game.

                No it won't.

                This new game doesn't look appealing to me. If it uses computerized numbers, then I won't be buying it, and thus probably will drop buying PA games outright (the drive to play Cash 5 alone isn't worth it to me).


                  United States
                  Member #379
                  June 5, 2002
                  11296 Posts
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                  Posted: November 2, 2006, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

                  First, a few assumptions, that Jackpot is minimum of $50,000, and a free ticket is a $2 value.  Then taking the odds furnished by the Lottery Bureau for each prize, I calculated total number of winners per prize, which I divided by number of possible tickets.  That gave me the hit rate.  I multiplied number of winners times prize for each winning combination, totaled and divided by total cost of all tickets which is $2 by total number of tickets.

                  Odds and totals are based on the PERMUTATION  of 19 numbers taken 5 at a time [Order matters],  of course 1 in 1,395,360 for the Jackpot Prize.  Matches in order are by permutation, and matches in any order drawn are by combination [order does not matter] in other words the difference between straight and boxed reuslts.

                  I can try to copy my spread sheet that i composed.

                   

                   

                  Way No.Same orderPlus anyany orderMatch PrizeMix PrizeTotal*ODDS (1 in -)#WinnersPayout
                  15N/A(5 of 5)$50,000 $2,000 $52,000       1,395,360 1$52,000
                  241(5 of 5)$1,000 $2,000 $3,000         139,536 10$30,000
                  332(5 of 5)$100 $2,000 $2,100           69,768 20$42,000
                  423(5 of 5)4$2,000 $2,004           31,008 45$90,180
                  514(5 of 5)Free Ticket$2,000 $2,002           31,713 44$88,087
                  640(4 of 5) $  1,000  $        20 $1,020           19,934 70$71,399
                  731(4 of 5) $    100  $        20 $120           4,983 280$33,603
                  822(4 of 5) $      4  $        20 $24           1,102 1,266$30,389
                  913(4 of 5)Free Ticket $        20 $22             453 3,080$67,766
                  1004(4 of 5) $      20  $20             376 3,711$74,221
                  1130(3 of 5) $    100  $          2 $102             767 1,819$185,563
                  1221(3 of 5) $      4  $          2 $6             128 10,901$65,408
                  1312(3 of 5)Free Ticket $          2 $4           36.51 38,219$152,874
                  1403(3 of 5) $      4  $        -  $4           23.96 58,237$232,948
                  1520(2 of 5) $      4  $        -  $4           63.89 21,840$87,360
                  1611(2 of 5)Free Ticket $        -  $2           10.65 131,020$262,039
                  1710(1 of 5)Free Ticket $        -  $2           11.62 120,083$240,165
                      *Value of Free Ticket = $2  TOTAL390,646$1,806,003
                  AVERAGE3.57PAYOUT65%

                   

                  Looks like it came out OK.  Feel free to check the math,  But it does look like a winner.  Odds were copied from Pa.Lottery web site, although I did spot check a few.

                  Isn't there also a $2000 prize for picking all five numbers without an exact match? I don't see that in the chart.

                    Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
                    Harrisburg, Pa.
                    United States
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                    December 23, 2003
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                    Posted: November 2, 2006, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

                    Yes there is.  My ommission.  The odds of this would be the combinations of 5 taken 5 at a time [1], times 34 taken 0 at a time {1} divided by the combinations of 19 taken 5 at a time [11,628].  Total payout would then be those winners divided into the total nuber of tickets printed, (a permutation of 19 taken 5 at a time) [1,395,360]  which equals [120].  Then   times $2000. or $240,000 added to the totals.  I'll go back and revise my spreadsheet. 

                     

                    Thank you.

                      Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
                      Harrisburg, Pa.
                      United States
                      Member #3093
                      December 23, 2003
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                      Posted: November 2, 2006, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

                      Another thing.  Yeah, I am.  The only thing going for LFL was the chance of an instant prize.  Given all that, the one in 12 hit rate wasn't so bad compared to powerball, but worse than the Win 4 Life scratch ticket at the same price.  I think if the jackpot were progressive, and it rolled down when not hit, the State may have had a good game.  Mix and Match has potential.  Just like Match 6 was a big improvement over Super 6.  Beleive it or not, Pa. had way worse games way back in the 70's  when than now.  Like the very first 50-cent game.  It's replacement was an improvement although I could never win.  Best was the Old Cash 50.  That would make a good on line game.  Keystone Jackpot wouldn't have been too bad, except the payouts were too low.  First lotto with the alternate (if no jackpot was hit) wasn't the best either.  This was replaced by Wildcard lotto (3 matches gets a free ticket or a dollar, not sure which) was good.  I lked the card game (Hearts and Diamonds) yet  I can see Animated drawing game was a turnoff.  I think 52 Pingpong balls can be painted up to resemble a deck of cards and a game like Delaware's Winning hand game would work.  Played it liked it.

                        Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
                        Harrisburg, Pa.
                        United States
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                        Posted: November 2, 2006, 1:16 pm - IP Logged

                        Yeah, I noticed that woo, Lucky Larry.  Not to worry if those repeated numbers (the game within the game) are drawn, then your chances of winningsw gets better.  I'bve actually won with just 2 numbers  with the repeats.  I guy I used to work with, claimed he had 9 matches 2 on 1 line, 3 on another and 4 on another.  Look at the payouts.  People actually win with 7 or more matches.  I once had 8, 4 on a lne; $70..  Best I ever did.so far on Match 6.  The game of choice for me over Cash 5.  I only play cash 5 under certain circumstances anymore.  If the Jackpot exceeds $500,000 or a free ticket coupon, or for the office pool, when I need a $1 ticket.  Or if I win enough on Match 6 to cover a couple of cash 5 tickets and still make money.  ($8 or better winnings, since I always buy two match 6 for each drawing).  And I pick my own numbers, so I know what hits.

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                          United States
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                          Posted: November 2, 2006, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

                          A free ticket is NOT worth a whole $2. A free ticket is really valued at 42 cents. Think about it.

                          (insert signature here)

                            Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
                            Harrisburg, Pa.
                            United States
                            Member #3093
                            December 23, 2003
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                            Posted: November 2, 2006, 4:02 pm - IP Logged

                            That makes sense.  I was figuring on retail value to the consumer, in other words, $2 one would NOT spend, and remain in pocket.  For what it cost the state to produce a ticket, and deliver to the consumer, 42 cents sounds right.  It would have to be cheaper for the state to make money, and of course, the State would. 

                             

                            Another thing.  Whenever you hear how the State loses money on the lottery, it's only because of the overhead involved.  (Advertising, Retailer Perks, Perks for the Bureau employees etc-- next time, notice the ring and the manicure on the hand of the lady that draws the number, and those spiffy green blazers.  Plus the Witnesses are taken out to dinner for the two nights that they work.  I'm old enough  to do that, I'm going to have to put in for it.

                              sirbrad's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                              PA
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                              October 6, 2005
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                              Posted: November 2, 2006, 7:46 pm - IP Logged

                              I am still trying to figure out the illogical assumption that a lifetime of checks is UNlucky.