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New PA Game - Mix And Match

Topic closed. 49 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Lotto Czar.

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United States
Member #1826
July 11, 2003
2645 Posts
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Posted: November 2, 2006, 7:48 pm - IP Logged

I found a couple of flaws with the calculation. One was the actual value of the free ticket, the other is with the jackpot. If the top prize was a flat $50,000, then the payout would only be about 48%. But of course the jackpot gets a little more than that. 

So with the average jackpot in mind ($122,605), I calculated the average payout at 50%, slightly down from LFL's 51.5%.

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    Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
    Harrisburg, Pa.
    United States
    Member #3093
    December 23, 2003
    233 Posts
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    Posted: November 3, 2006, 8:22 am - IP Logged

    True, the value of the free ticket probably could be counted as a win, but maybe should not be figured in cash payout.  As was pointed out, the ticket isn't worth the $2 payout.

     

    Also the State's retailer info page says that the jackpot should roll over every 5 draws on the average (please verify), so maybe $52,000 x 1/1,395,360 isn't a true % payout for that teir; 50% give or a take a little sounds more realistic.  But still great for a draw game.  It is well known that if all games, scratch and draw were added up together, total payout would be about 50%; I,m not sure about how the other 50% is distributed; I'm sure its documented somewheres, but something like 15% tor Operations and 35% for [Senior Citizen] programs.  Speakking of payouts, anyone notice the payouts for the $10 and $20 Christmas scratch tickets?  Over 70%.  Of course, the $1 ticket is clsoe to 60 at around 59.8%

     

    Play responsibly.

      Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
      Harrisburg, Pa.
      United States
      Member #3093
      December 23, 2003
      233 Posts
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      Posted: November 3, 2006, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

      I found a couple of flaws with the calculation. One was the actual value of the free ticket, the other is with the jackpot. If the top prize was a flat $50,000, then the payout would only be about 48%. But of course the jackpot gets a little more than that. 

      So with the average jackpot in mind ($122,605), I calculated the average payout at 50%, slightly down from LFL's 51.5%.

      Agree 

      I went back and subtracted the $2 winning from the free ticket prize, and lo and behold: Payout does go to around 48%.  Still not bad for a draw game.  Has potential.

      State tends to change lotto type games every 2 years or so on the average, need it or not.  So who knows what's in store?

      Thanks to everyone who checked.  That spreadsheet was thrown together rather hastily.  Now I know.

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        United States
        Member #1826
        July 11, 2003
        2645 Posts
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        Posted: November 3, 2006, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

        I got an e-mail from the lottery, they say the estimated payout should be 52.15%, and in my book their word has a little more weight than mine.

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          Lotto Czar's avatar - sam
          Harrisburg, Pa.
          United States
          Member #3093
          December 23, 2003
          233 Posts
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          Posted: November 6, 2006, 8:13 am - IP Logged

          I got an e-mail from the lottery, they say the estimated payout should be 52.15%, and in my book their word has a little more weight than mine.

          Sounds good.  thanks.