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Why I think quick picks suck

Topic closed. 70 replies. Last post 8 years ago by jarasan.

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Posted: June 20, 2008, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

No matter what your QP is try to be happy..You only get once chance at life,some others die early..Enjoy life......

    hearsetrax's avatar - 0118

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    Posted: June 20, 2008, 3:25 pm - IP Logged

    No matter what your QP is try to be happy..You only get once chance at life,some others die early..Enjoy life......

    I Agree!

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: June 20, 2008, 7:11 pm - IP Logged

      Just bought a quick pick for the Texas Two Step drawing tonight.  Here's what the computer spit out at me: 1-3-4-5+10.  NICE!  I know, I know, quick picks win a majority of jackpots, but give me a break.  I think that's probably the last quick pick I will ever buy.........EVER. 

      I've played abbreviated wheels where I have included four numbers like that and they have ended up in the same combo. The difference is, I can place those numbers in another order before filling out a play slip and without handing the ticket back to the clerk. But since I believe all the numbers I'm using have an equal chance of being drawn and that combination would be used if I was playing a full wheel, I play it.

      If all the numbers and all the combinations in the Texas Two Step have an equal chance of being drawn, then any QP should have that same chance. Whether we're picking the numbers or letting the lottery terminal pick them for us, it's all the same because in the end, any combination of numbers can be drawn.

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        NY
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        Posted: June 20, 2008, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

        Okay, the post by Coin Toss, got me thinking a little bit.........I'm not trying to bash anyone that likes quick picks.  If you play alot of quick picks then good luck to you.  I'm just simply saying this........if I wanted to get hit by lightning I wouldn't just go stand outside.  I would probably do some things to increase my chances.  I would go outside in a thunderstorm, stand under the tallest tree, wrap myself in tin foil........well you get the point.  I like to use the same approach when playing the lottery.  I believe that lottery drawings (at least mechanical ball drawings) are COMPLETELY random.  I quit trying to guess exactly which balls would be drawn next because I feel like that's a waste of time.  Instead, I look at things that are statistacally trackable.  The quick pick that I used as an example tonight had a total line sum of 23.  The lowest sum EVER drawn for Texas Two Step (740 draws so far) was 28 on 4/9/2007.  So, in essence, I still believe in using random numbers (like a quick pick), but why walk into a store and flop down money for something that you have absolutely no control over?  It's not like I could of handed that ticket back to the clerk and said, "Nah, I don't like that one........give me another".  So I encourage the players that read this post to track their game and use a random number generator to pick numbers that fall within ranges that are drawn most frequently.  Will it guarantee you to win a jackpot?  Heck no.  Does it increase your odds?  Well, I think so.  It's a simple matter of math and statistics.  If you want to win the lottery do everything in your power to help yourself win. 

        Anyway, I will get off my soapbox now. 

        If you believe that the results are completely random, how can any set of numbers be bad? Every combination has exactly the same chance as every other. The problem with playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 isn't that it's less likely to win than other combinations. The problem is that you'd be playing for a much smaller jackpot because a lot of people play that combination, and if it does win the jackpot will be split many ways.

        As far as what you refer to as "statistically trackable"  that's an illusion.  For every drawing there is exactly one combination that wins, regardless of how many combinations are "similar." If the winning combination has a pattern with many similar combinations you'll have a better chance of having one of those similar combinations, but you'll still lose if you don't have the exact combination. The winning combination is never just 2 odd and 3 even numbers or 2 low numbers and 3 high numbers. It's always 5 or 6 *specific* numbers, that might be odd, even, high or low.

          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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          Posted: June 21, 2008, 12:40 am - IP Logged

          There have been times that I have gotten combinations that I thought were "bad" and it used to annoy me. But now, I realize that any combination can come out and those picks that I thought were weird/bad could one day turn out to be a winner.

          "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

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            New Mexico
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            Posted: June 21, 2008, 1:37 am - IP Logged

            Thanks for your input KY Floyd.  Statistically trackable is certainly NOT an illusion.  You are absolutely right that every draw is specific numbers.  What I mean is that over the "long run", you will tend to see balance.  I'm not coming up with any kind of "weird science" here.  Texas Two Step drawings are 4 balls from a pool of 35 plus one bonus ball from another pool of 35.  A HUGE majority of the 741 total drawings for that game have either 2 odd/2 even, 3 odd/1 even, 1 odd/3 even.  90% of the 741 draws to be exact.  Again, this isn't any revelation or "weird science".  There are simply just more possible combinations that have at least one odd and one even then there are combinations with all odd or all even.  So it makes complete sense that over the "long run" that you will tend to see more of those combinations drawn.  I agree with you that on any given drawing, any combination stands as good as a chance of being drawn as any other combination.  What I'm trying to get across is simply this:  if you want to win then the smart thing to do is to play combinations that get drawn more often.  This whole thread started because of the crappy quick pick I got.  Sure, it had the same chance of being drawn that night as any other combination, but it didn't get drawn.  And chances are, you could play that combination for a VERY long time and probably (at best) match 2 or 3 numbers.  That's all I'm saying folks.  Use random numbers, but just weed out the unlikely combos. 

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              Posted: June 21, 2008, 1:45 am - IP Logged

              One other thing:

              If you still think I'm out in left field check this out, click on predictions, then top predictors and notice that I am 10th for all time hit percentage.  Sure, there are 9 people with a better percentage but notice that they don't post that many predictions.  As a matter of fact the next closest individual has only posted 1/6 as many as I have.  How do I manage to keep a hit percentage in the top 10 all time for this site?  I do it by using random number generators and then filtering the least likely combinations out.  Simple as that.  I'm not trying to brag about a crappy 1.54% hit percentage, I'm just trying to help people out on this site by stating what I think the key to being a winning lottery player is.

                Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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                Posted: June 21, 2008, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

                Just bought a quick pick for the Texas Two Step drawing tonight.  Here's what the computer spit out at me: 1-3-4-5+10.  NICE!  I know, I know, quick picks win a majority of jackpots, but give me a break.  I think that's probably the last quick pick I will ever buy.........EVER. 

                Within the last month I had something similar on a Powerball ticket.  Three numbers consecutively.

                All three dropped that night for a 7 buck win.

                I've had similar on the local 6/39 game and they've hit.

                The numbers often do not follow the "script" on any one draw in jackpot games. There is no "bad" ticket. It all depends on what drops.

                ============

                How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                Answer: His lips are moving.

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: June 21, 2008, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

                  One other thing:

                  If you still think I'm out in left field check this out, click on predictions, then top predictors and notice that I am 10th for all time hit percentage.  Sure, there are 9 people with a better percentage but notice that they don't post that many predictions.  As a matter of fact the next closest individual has only posted 1/6 as many as I have.  How do I manage to keep a hit percentage in the top 10 all time for this site?  I do it by using random number generators and then filtering the least likely combinations out.  Simple as that.  I'm not trying to brag about a crappy 1.54% hit percentage, I'm just trying to help people out on this site by stating what I think the key to being a winning lottery player is.

                  Just my $.02 here.

                  Predictions are fine and if done for recreation, no problem.

                  Personally I don't put any up because I only track two games and I know that I can't pick my nose, let alone numbers!

                  But I would be far more impressed by seeing one, two, or three pick 3's "predicted" and hit and collected on than seeing 45 or more possible plays and something hits- kind of like shooting at an archery bullseye with a shotgun.

                  I'm pretty sure abolutely no one on the predictions page is playing all of even their own predictions.

                  Call me silly but I'd be way more impressed with what people actually played and collected on than by "look what I did "paper-trading" (as in stock portfolios "on paper").

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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                    Posted: June 22, 2008, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

                    Just bought a quick pick for the Texas Two Step drawing tonight.  Here's what the computer spit out at me: 1-3-4-5+10.  NICE!  I know, I know, quick picks win a majority of jackpots, but give me a break.  I think that's probably the last quick pick I will ever buy.........EVER. 

                    Yesterdays Powerball numbers were : 7-8-9-31-50 + 31. If I had gotten those numbers, I would have been like "ewww", but that just goes to show any set of numbers can come out.

                    "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: June 22, 2008, 7:14 pm - IP Logged

                      Thanks for your input KY Floyd.  Statistically trackable is certainly NOT an illusion.  You are absolutely right that every draw is specific numbers.  What I mean is that over the "long run", you will tend to see balance.  I'm not coming up with any kind of "weird science" here.  Texas Two Step drawings are 4 balls from a pool of 35 plus one bonus ball from another pool of 35.  A HUGE majority of the 741 total drawings for that game have either 2 odd/2 even, 3 odd/1 even, 1 odd/3 even.  90% of the 741 draws to be exact.  Again, this isn't any revelation or "weird science".  There are simply just more possible combinations that have at least one odd and one even then there are combinations with all odd or all even.  So it makes complete sense that over the "long run" that you will tend to see more of those combinations drawn.  I agree with you that on any given drawing, any combination stands as good as a chance of being drawn as any other combination.  What I'm trying to get across is simply this:  if you want to win then the smart thing to do is to play combinations that get drawn more often.  This whole thread started because of the crappy quick pick I got.  Sure, it had the same chance of being drawn that night as any other combination, but it didn't get drawn.  And chances are, you could play that combination for a VERY long time and probably (at best) match 2 or 3 numbers.  That's all I'm saying folks.  Use random numbers, but just weed out the unlikely combos. 

                      "A HUGE majority of the 741 total drawings for that game have either 2 odd/2 even, 3 odd/1 even, 1 odd/3 even.  90% of the 741 draws to be exact."

                      That's because almost 90% of all the possible combinations have that odd to even ratio. In every drawing there is 10% chance that 4 odd or 4 even numbers will be drawn but that doesn't prove the combination 2-4-7-9 has a 90% chance of being drawn or a even a better chance than the combination 2-4-6-8. The odds of either combination being drawn is 1 out of the total possible combinations.

                      "What I'm trying to get across is simply this:  if you want to win then the smart thing to do is to play combinations that get drawn more often. This whole thread started because of the crappy quick pick I got."

                      I can understand your logic if you were playing 100 combinations and wanted to maintain the 9 to 1 ratio and half the tickets had 4 even or 4 odd numbers, but you're talking about one quick pick (1-3-4-5 + 10) that was in the 90 percentile.

                      I've never looked at a losing ticket and thought it was shame to throw it away because it had pretty numbers. I can say for a fact that everyone of my losing tickets were crappy.

                      "That's all I'm saying folks.  Use random numbers, but just weed out the unlikely combos."

                      Oh great, now you're suggesting we should hold up the check out line while we decide whether the numbers are crappy or not and ask the clerk to cancel it and give us another one.

                      Why not just click on "Systems" on the blue bar and "Quick Pick Generator" then "Tx Two Step" under "choose game". You can generate 1 to 50 quick picks so you can decide in the privacy of your home whether they are crappy or not.

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                        Posted: June 22, 2008, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

                        Okay, Stack, let's look at it this way.  I have a barrel with 100 balls in it.  90 of them are black and 10 of them are white.  Each ball has an equal chance of being drawn, correct? (Assuming they are of equal size and shape and equally mixed).  Now, if I had to bet on whether or not a black or a white ball was going to be drawn, what would the smart bet be?  Obviously the smart bet would be on black because 90% of the balls are black.  When we buy a lottery ticket we are placing a bet on an outcome so the same should apply.  Sure every combo has an equal chance of being drawn, but put your money on the smart picks.  And, by the way, never did I suggest anyone hold up a check out line.  As far as I know, you can't give a lottery ticket back and "cancel" it anyway.  Using the quick pick generator on this site (or hundreds of other sites) and deciding which ones to play is exactly what I was suggesting in the first place.

                          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                          Posted: June 23, 2008, 12:00 am - IP Logged

                          If there are "smart picks" no one has broken the code yet.

                          There's no such thing as a consistent jackpot winner, there's no such things as a consistent 5 + 0 winner. No one has any lottery offering a jackpot game sweating their play.

                          As has been said by many many times on this board, one and only one set of numbers is drawn.

                          The lotteries love it when people think they have a system or way of doping out the numbers that will be drawn because they know that kind of player is going to play a lot more.

                          The ony person I can think of who won a jackpot twice is an elderly lady in New Jersey who blew them both and now lives on social security.

                          I'm sure there may be others but it's pretty rare.

                          Speculation for the purpose of fun and games is one thing, but when it comes down to it, one ounce of "did" (in this case having hit one jackpot) beats two tons of "gonna."

                          I'd love to see somone here at LP hit the MM or the PB - with a quick pick!

                          My oh my would that be interesting!

                          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                          Lep

                          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                            New Mexico
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                            Posted: June 23, 2008, 12:09 am - IP Logged

                            Okay, last time I'm going to post on this topic.  It's time for this topic to die.  Anyway, if you like quick picks then, by all means, keep buying them.  It just seems to me that when I buy quick picks I get an unusually high ratio of low percentage combinations therefore I don't like buying quick picks.  It's just my opinion.  Like I said, if you like 'em then keep buying them 'cause I like seeing the jackpots go up and up and UP. 

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                              NY
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                              Posted: June 23, 2008, 1:04 am - IP Logged

                              Okay, Stack, let's look at it this way.  I have a barrel with 100 balls in it.  90 of them are black and 10 of them are white.  Each ball has an equal chance of being drawn, correct? (Assuming they are of equal size and shape and equally mixed).  Now, if I had to bet on whether or not a black or a white ball was going to be drawn, what would the smart bet be?  Obviously the smart bet would be on black because 90% of the balls are black.  When we buy a lottery ticket we are placing a bet on an outcome so the same should apply.  Sure every combo has an equal chance of being drawn, but put your money on the smart picks.  And, by the way, never did I suggest anyone hold up a check out line.  As far as I know, you can't give a lottery ticket back and "cancel" it anyway.  Using the quick pick generator on this site (or hundreds of other sites) and deciding which ones to play is exactly what I was suggesting in the first place.

                              If you won for guessing whether the winner would be a black ball or a white ball that would make sense, but that's not how the lottery works. See if you can get the right answer to this: You have a barrel with 100 balls in it, 90 are white and 10 are black. If you pick one of the balls at random, what are the chances that it will be number 7?