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Why I think quick picks suck

Topic closed. 70 replies. Last post 9 years ago by jarasan.

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Posted: June 23, 2008, 1:31 am - IP Logged

Okay, last time I'm going to post on this topic.  It's time for this topic to die.  Anyway, if you like quick picks then, by all means, keep buying them.  It just seems to me that when I buy quick picks I get an unusually high ratio of low percentage combinations therefore I don't like buying quick picks.  It's just my opinion.  Like I said, if you like 'em then keep buying them 'cause I like seeing the jackpots go up and up and UP. 

There are no good or bad combos. It's merely an illusion when most of the combos seem nicely spaced apart. Those rosy peachy looking combos have just as much chance as strange and seemingly low possibility types.

The brain is always looking for patterns from chaotic forms. And we all know the weather isn't always peachy keen. So maybe a little turbulence doesen't hurt.

 

Nevertheless, your interpretation of what an ideal combo is, can be debatable, and interpreted many ways.

Bottom line....No such animal... 

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    Long Island, NY
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    Posted: June 23, 2008, 1:40 am - IP Logged

    I played an elaborate quick pick strategy (which I have discussed on other posts) for a few years and now; I  use quick picks as  a method of narrowing down my own number picks.

    You see, unless you are "lucky" most quick picks usually are worthless and suck beyond belief.  Your lucky if one number is right with a quick pick.  This helps me to eliminate numbers.  Makes a good filter.

    Yeah they suck...but if used effectively; you can get some other  knowledge/ benefits from them. 

    But ya know...if you earnestly don't have the time (or are plain lazy...can't be bothered) to pick your own numbers; quick picks are a "quick" way to at least get in the game..you have a chance.

    I don't have time to analyze the Mega for example;  so I buy them occasionaly.   Total suckiness in most cases.

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: June 23, 2008, 1:55 am - IP Logged

      Considering 70 to 70 % of ticket sales, and 70 to 80% of jackpot winners are quick picks, I guess there's a lot of "lucky" people- a lot more than those who pick their own numbers, evidently.

      The develper of Nautilus fitness machines, Arthur Jones, once told this story.

      A guy is at the beach trying to dog a hole with his hands.

      Another guy comes along, sees what he's doing, and offers him a shovel, telling him it would really help him with what he's trying to do.

      The first fellow looks at the guy with the shovel with hate in his eyes, and digs harder and faster with his hands.

      In Jones' story, the guy's hands were conventional weight training equipment, an the shovel was Nautilus machines.

      For this thread, let's modify the story and say the shovel is quick picks.

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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        Kentucky
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        Posted: June 23, 2008, 3:55 am - IP Logged

        Okay, Stack, let's look at it this way.  I have a barrel with 100 balls in it.  90 of them are black and 10 of them are white.  Each ball has an equal chance of being drawn, correct? (Assuming they are of equal size and shape and equally mixed).  Now, if I had to bet on whether or not a black or a white ball was going to be drawn, what would the smart bet be?  Obviously the smart bet would be on black because 90% of the balls are black.  When we buy a lottery ticket we are placing a bet on an outcome so the same should apply.  Sure every combo has an equal chance of being drawn, but put your money on the smart picks.  And, by the way, never did I suggest anyone hold up a check out line.  As far as I know, you can't give a lottery ticket back and "cancel" it anyway.  Using the quick pick generator on this site (or hundreds of other sites) and deciding which ones to play is exactly what I was suggesting in the first place.

        "Now, if I had to bet on whether or not a black or a white ball was going to be drawn, what would the smart bet be?"

        The odds of grabbing a black ball are better, but the numbers on your quick pick were in the 90% range and you still said they were crappy.

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          New Mexico
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          Posted: June 23, 2008, 9:06 am - IP Logged

          "Now, if I had to bet on whether or not a black or a white ball was going to be drawn, what would the smart bet be?"

          The odds of grabbing a black ball are better, but the numbers on your quick pick were in the 90% range and you still said they were crappy.

          That's incorrect, Stack.  That quick pick was certainly not a 90% combination.  What percentage of combos of the total possible in Texas Two Step do ya think have a total line sum below 30?  I'm not just talking about odd/even combinations.  I also look at decade patterns, high/low, etc.  For those of you who think this is crazy, I'm not sure I follow your logic.  There are more combinations possible for Texas Two Step with a decade pattern of 1-2-1-1 or 1-1-2-1 then there are of ANY other pattern.  Well, those two decade patterns get drawn the most.  It's just stats people.  Look, we'll just have to agree to disagree I guess.  You guys can play your 1-2-3-4-5-6 combos all you want.  I'll stick to high percentage combinations.

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            Posted: June 23, 2008, 9:18 am - IP Logged

            Considering 70 to 70 % of ticket sales, and 70 to 80% of jackpot winners are quick picks, I guess there's a lot of "lucky" people- a lot more than those who pick their own numbers, evidently.

            The develper of Nautilus fitness machines, Arthur Jones, once told this story.

            A guy is at the beach trying to dog a hole with his hands.

            Another guy comes along, sees what he's doing, and offers him a shovel, telling him it would really help him with what he's trying to do.

            The first fellow looks at the guy with the shovel with hate in his eyes, and digs harder and faster with his hands.

            In Jones' story, the guy's hands were conventional weight training equipment, an the shovel was Nautilus machines.

            For this thread, let's modify the story and say the shovel is quick picks.

            Coin Toss, you just seem to be missing my point.  Let me state it a little differently.  When I go spend money on quick picks, I notice that I get an UNUSUALLY high ratio of lower percentage combinations.  Using Texas Two Step for example, if 90% of the possible combos have an odd and an even number then I should get pretty close to that percentage on my quick picks, right?  Well, I don't.  Out of $10 I may get 2 or 3 that are all odd or all even or have some other low percentage type of combination.  That is the reason I don't like quick picks.  Could one of those combos hit?  Sure it could and sometimes does.  I would rather pick combinations in the 90% range, wouldn't you?  Geez, I would LOVE to play some of you guys in poker! 

            Now the random number generator/combo picker that I use on Microsoft Excel will produce combinations along the percentages one would expect if I don't filter it at all.  About 9 out of 10 will have at least one odd and one even number.  Now why is it that I can produce random numbers that way, but the lottery computers that make quick picks cannot?  Can anyone prove that they are TOTALLY random numbers?  Is it in the Lottery's best interest for jackpots to grow to a high level?  Yes.  If 70% to 80% of ticket sales are quick picks and 70% to 80% of winners are quick picks then that's what you would expect I guess.  Think about this though: the 30% of sales that are not quick picks, I'm guessing a big percentage of those are birthdays, anniversaries, perceived lucky numbers, etc. 

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              New Mexico
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              Posted: June 23, 2008, 9:21 am - IP Logged

              If you won for guessing whether the winner would be a black ball or a white ball that would make sense, but that's not how the lottery works. See if you can get the right answer to this: You have a barrel with 100 balls in it, 90 are white and 10 are black. If you pick one of the balls at random, what are the chances that it will be number 7?

              Wow you must think I'm an idiot.  In your example it would depend on how many number 7's are in the 100 possible numbers.  Assuming it's only one number 7 then you would have a 1/100 chance of getting a 7.  That being said, that's not at all what I'm talking about.

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                New Mexico
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                Posted: June 23, 2008, 9:42 am - IP Logged

                Another way of looking at it:

                For pick 3 games, 72% of possible combos are singles, 27% are doubles, and 1% are triples.  Now, I'm not saying you shouldn't play doubles or triples.  If I'm going to buy 10  lines I will have 7 singles, 2 or 3 doubles, and maybe I'll throw in one triple.  This is just my strategy.  Now, when I buy quick picks for the TX pick 3 game, I will get just about 50% singles and 50% doubles.  That doesn't fit my playing strategy so I tend to pick my own numbers rather than buy quick picks.

                  ebearam's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg
                  new york
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                  Posted: June 23, 2008, 9:52 am - IP Logged

                  In the New York Take Five Drawing look at the Odd vs. Even numbers drawn.

                  As of 9/13/07 these were the Odd vs. Even stats:
                  5749 Odd numbers drawn.
                  5566 Even number drawn.
                  5 Even / 0 Odd Drawings: 59
                  4 Even / 1 Odd Drawings: 299
                  3 Even / 2 Odd Drawings: 751
                  2 Even / 3 Odd Drawings: 736
                  1 Even / 4 Odd Drawings: 350
                  0 Even / 5 Odd Drawings: 68

                  The important statistic is the 3 Even / 2 Odd: 751 and 2 Even / 3 Odd: 736 stat. Telling you that you should be playing a 5 number set that has either 3 Even / 2 Odd, or 2 Even / 3 Odd.

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                    Posted: June 23, 2008, 12:26 pm - IP Logged

                    Coin Toss, you just seem to be missing my point.  Let me state it a little differently.  When I go spend money on quick picks, I notice that I get an UNUSUALLY high ratio of lower percentage combinations.  Using Texas Two Step for example, if 90% of the possible combos have an odd and an even number then I should get pretty close to that percentage on my quick picks, right?  Well, I don't.  Out of $10 I may get 2 or 3 that are all odd or all even or have some other low percentage type of combination.  That is the reason I don't like quick picks.  Could one of those combos hit?  Sure it could and sometimes does.  I would rather pick combinations in the 90% range, wouldn't you?  Geez, I would LOVE to play some of you guys in poker! 

                    Now the random number generator/combo picker that I use on Microsoft Excel will produce combinations along the percentages one would expect if I don't filter it at all.  About 9 out of 10 will have at least one odd and one even number.  Now why is it that I can produce random numbers that way, but the lottery computers that make quick picks cannot?  Can anyone prove that they are TOTALLY random numbers?  Is it in the Lottery's best interest for jackpots to grow to a high level?  Yes.  If 70% to 80% of ticket sales are quick picks and 70% to 80% of winners are quick picks then that's what you would expect I guess.  Think about this though: the 30% of sales that are not quick picks, I'm guessing a big percentage of those are birthdays, anniversaries, perceived lucky numbers, etc. 

                    Texas MadMan

                    Sorry, but I don't think I'm missing your point at all.

                    The premise of your thread is "Why I think quick picks suck".

                    The facts are quick picks win most of the jackpots, it's that simple.

                    Replying to that, I said that most jackpot winning tickets are quick picks, which they are.

                    Perhaps what you're really saying without realizing it is the fact that quick picks hit jackpots way more often than non-quick picks is what sucks. If you think that sucks, you've got a lot of company, but it wont change the facts at all.

                    You posted in the Illinois Little Lotto 2008 results thread, where thus far of 65 jackpots paid 55 of the winners were quick picks (includes jackpots with multiple winners).

                    The Powerball webiste FAQ page tells us that 70 to 80% of ticket sales are quick picks and the same percetnage carries over to winners - you had asked for such stats and said you hadn't seen any.

                    We can do all the plotting and tracking and scheming we want and follow all the never play all evens, odds, etc...only to see a jackpot go to a quick pick, time and time again.

                     

                    MAVEN U.

                    OPINION OVER KNOWLEDGE

                    MAVEN U. COLLEGE OF LOTTOLOGY

                    OPINION OVER RESULTS

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                      Wandering Aimlessly
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                      Posted: June 23, 2008, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

                      "If you believe that the results are completely random, how can any set of numbers be bad?"

                      Darn!  You took the words right out of my mouth.  On the other hand, I admit that I might have the same reaction to that combination.  Still, here's an example from the other night which proves there's no such thing as a "bad" combination.  I have several examples, many with 3 consecutive numbers.  This was last Sat. From the FL Lottery media center:

                      The Florida Lottery announced today that no ticket matched the six-of-six winning numbers in the Saturday, June 21, FLORIDA LOTTO™ drawing, resulting in a rollover that produced a LOTTO base jackpot of $12 million, a $2 LOTTO PLUS jackpot of $22 million and a $3 LOTTO PLUS jackpot of $37 million for the next drawing

                      The winning FLORIDA LOTTO numbers were:

                      08 - 29 - 40 - 42 - 43 - 45

                       

                      I bet that a lot of people on LP would be posting "I got a QP and look here..4 numbers in the 40s.  I hate QPs." 

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                        Posted: June 23, 2008, 2:09 pm - IP Logged

                        Yup. Same thing with NY lotto on Saturday night: 7, 24, 36, 52, 54, 55. Plenty of people would look at those numbers and ask about the odds of the winning combination having 3 numbers in the 50's. Sure, that's less likely than other distributions, but the odds of that specific combination coming up, like any other combination, are about 1 in 22 million.

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                          Posted: June 23, 2008, 2:34 pm - IP Logged

                          Wow you must think I'm an idiot.  In your example it would depend on how many number 7's are in the 100 possible numbers.  Assuming it's only one number 7 then you would have a 1/100 chance of getting a 7.  That being said, that's not at all what I'm talking about.

                          You've chosen the right answer, but you're certainly giving me plenty of evidence that you don't actually understand the signifigance of it. I won't argue with the basic premise that QPs are flawed. Anecdotal evidence suggests that  they aren't completely random selections  made from all of the available numbers.  I don't care one way or the other, and won't argue that point.

                          The relevant question is whether or not that affects their chances of winning. Previously you said that you believe that lottery results are random. If that's the case, all combinations have an equal chance of being drawn, and there are no bad (or unlikely) combinations, at least as far as odds of winning are concerned. That you then say you eliminate "unlikely" combinations indicates that you don't really understand how it all works. You're not playing horseshoes, and you don't win anything for being "close". As near as I can tell you think that 7,18,23,34,42 is a sensible combination, but 7,19,23,35,43 isn't because all of the numbers are odd. Yes, there are more combinations that can be made with 2 odd and 3 even numbers, but you aren't trying to match the pattern of the winning combination. You're trying to match the actual combination. There's only one of those, and the odds are 1  against all of the other possible combinations, not 1 against only the other combinations with the same pattern.

                          That's the point about your 100 black and white balls. Each of them has a 1 in 100 chance of being drawn regardless of color. If you won something for guessing the right color but getting the number wrong you'd have better odds by choosing a number with the more common color.  Since you'd only win for playsing the actual number that is drawn your odds are exactly the same whether you choose the  more common color or the less common color. If 99 balls are white and only 7 is black, your chances of winning are 1 in 100 with 7 and 1 in 100 with any one of the 99 white numbers.

                            jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                            Harbinger
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                            Posted: June 23, 2008, 3:47 pm - IP Logged

                            pb0614QP's also blow.  I always buy Qp's for grins but this is typical.

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: June 23, 2008, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

                              That's incorrect, Stack.  That quick pick was certainly not a 90% combination.  What percentage of combos of the total possible in Texas Two Step do ya think have a total line sum below 30?  I'm not just talking about odd/even combinations.  I also look at decade patterns, high/low, etc.  For those of you who think this is crazy, I'm not sure I follow your logic.  There are more combinations possible for Texas Two Step with a decade pattern of 1-2-1-1 or 1-1-2-1 then there are of ANY other pattern.  Well, those two decade patterns get drawn the most.  It's just stats people.  Look, we'll just have to agree to disagree I guess.  You guys can play your 1-2-3-4-5-6 combos all you want.  I'll stick to high percentage combinations.

                              There are only 837 combinations with a sum under 31 so if I bought 5 QPs and all were under 31, I would say they are crappy too. But you only bought one quick that happened to be under 31 and are comparing it to any of the 51,523 other combinations and saying the percentages are in your favor. The rest of us are comparing your one QP to one QP from that group and saying compared together, the odds of either combination being drawn are exactly the same.

                              The 90% was from excluding 4 even numbers and 4 odd numbers but if a QP with 4 even numbers looks crappy, a ticket with 4 low or 4 high numbers should too. If you don't want any of the 837 combinations under 31, you probably don't want one of the 837 combinations over 113 either. And having a ticket with 4 consecutive numbers or 3 numbers with the same last digit would be bad too.

                              When you put all these high percentage filters together, the 90% becomes 78.78% which is still pretty high, but compare your QP to a QP from that group, the odds of either combination being drawn are still exactly the same.

                              "Look, we'll just have to agree to disagree I guess."

                              If we were talking about buying 100 QPs, I wouldn't want more than 4 of them to be under the sum of 31 or over 113 and I wouldn't want more than 10 combos with all even or odd numbers or more than 10 combos with all low or high numbers. It's possible the store where you bought that QP sold 100 tickets with the ideal ratio, but happened to sell that one ticket to the only player that knew percentages.

                              "I'll stick to high percentage combinations."

                              Texas Two Step has 35 bonus balls and if you pick the correct number, you'll win $5, $7 if you match one of the other balls, or an average of $20 by matching two of the other numbers. A roulette wheel has 37 numbers and if you pick the correct number you win $35 and have the option of removing the dollar you bet and keeping it.

                              The overall odds of winning anything of 1:32 are only slightly better than Powerballs' 1:36 and Mega Millions' 1:40. So even if you just play the high percentage combinations by reducing the field by 22%, only 1 out of every 44,670 combinations will win something.