Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 5:13 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Why I think quick picks suck

Topic closed. 70 replies. Last post 8 years ago by jarasan.

Page 5 of 5
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7322 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 24, 2008, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

I Agree!TSC,

I used to get angry with those QP that come out like that, then some of those weird ones win like the 33 22 41 25 45.  But it won.  I too would never play 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and mega number 6.  If that draw ever came out, Lady Luck would get a serious beat down from me personally.

A good example of that is last night's Rolling Cash 5 drawing; 7-33-35-37-39. The jackpot was hit and the winner was probably in the lottery office early this morning collecting the winnings and telling them they thought the numbers were crappy when bought their ticket.

They randomly choose a QP number, sell it to a player and have a random drawing so 1-2-3-4-5+6 has the same chance of being drawn as any other combination. If many people play that combination the winnings will be smaller but if a player believes it will be drawn, they are going to win something. Playing in a pool with 29 others trying to win a $12 million jackpot is about the same.

    justxploring's avatar - villiarna
    Wandering Aimlessly
    United States
    Member #25360
    November 5, 2005
    4461 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 24, 2008, 3:51 pm - IP Logged

    I agree, except that I've seen very tiny pick-5 prizes in FL when lots of people win playing low numbers.  Still, I wouldn't mind winning $20,000 although $250,000 would be much nicer.  I suppose as long as it's not your "one chance in a lifetime" then any win would be just fine.  I think most people assume that the one time they finally hit a jackpot, it's going to be the one & only time (which might be true!) 

      numbergirly's avatar - 0002009C
      Dover, Delaware
      United States
      Member #26979
      November 25, 2005
      178 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 24, 2008, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

      Just bought a quick pick for the Texas Two Step drawing tonight.  Here's what the computer spit out at me: 1-3-4-5+10.  NICE!  I know, I know, quick picks win a majority of jackpots, but give me a break.  I think that's probably the last quick pick I will ever buy.........EVER. 

      Hey Texas MadMan.... I would play those numbers at least three times. Never underestimate the power of numbers. We can't predict what numbers are good or bad until we play them. You never know...Maybe the machine spit out the correct numbers for another date.  GOOD LUCK TO YOUBig Smile

      WHEN LIFE GIVES YOU LEMONS   Ice Water 





        numbergirly's avatar - 0002009C
        Dover, Delaware
        United States
        Member #26979
        November 25, 2005
        178 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: June 24, 2008, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

        Just bought a quick pick for the Texas Two Step drawing tonight.  Here's what the computer spit out at me: 1-3-4-5+10.  NICE!  I know, I know, quick picks win a majority of jackpots, but give me a break.  I think that's probably the last quick pick I will ever buy.........EVER. 

        I would play those numbers at least three times because, numbers are very unpredictable...That's the whole point to the lottery game you never know. Maybe the machine spit out the correct numbers for another date. Don't give up on E-Z Picks so quickly because, most jacpots are won by quick picks.

        GOOD LUCKBig Smile

        WHEN LIFE GIVES YOU LEMONS   Ice Water 





          reddog's avatar - patch
          Greensboro, North Carolina
          United States
          Member #1616
          June 5, 2003
          1287 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: June 24, 2008, 4:49 pm - IP Logged

          Yeah, that's probably the way to go.  I used to play only quick picks, but nowadays I write spreadsheets to pick random numbers for me, but I set filters to prevent crap like 1-3-4-5-10 from being selected.  The only reason I bought a quick pick tonight is because I'm out of town with only my laptop and I didn't remember to transfer all my spreadsheets over from my desktop.  Oh well, I guess I'll fell like an idiot for posting this thread if that number is drawn tonight, huh? Bang Head

          I feel your pain. When I get crappy QP's I just compare them to my life,,,, they both suck. Wink

          US Flag

            jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
            Harbinger
            D.C./MD.
            United States
            Member #44103
            July 30, 2006
            5583 Posts
            Online
            Posted: June 24, 2008, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

            jarasan

            You're assuming that all quick pick players have less involvement or understanding of the game. 

            What you said holds true for some quick pick players, but there are others that have been playing for many, many years and after having seen jackpot after jackpot go to a quick pick, they start playing them.

            QP converts brothers and sisters!

            I know people who pick their own nunbers and don't even check their tickets until they have a stack of them. Then they go down to a place that sells lotto tickets and bogart the ticket scanner. So much for involvement and staying on top of things.

            Lottery retailers, by the nature of the game, are "picking the pockets" of anyone who plays, regardless of how they picjkthe numbers.

            The lotto makes millons of off quick picks, yes, but the average sale is $1.

            On an individual basis, $1 isn't going to bankrupty most people.

            But people with a system that they just "know" is going to hit go way, way more than a dollar. So on an individual basis, who do you think the lotto makes more off of?

            To win a jackpot and go broke is tragic. To go broke trying to win a jackpot is tragic and ridiculous, and there are indeed people who have done that, and they weren't playing quick picks.

            In the tickdets you scanned in previously yoiu had four of the five numbers in the top matrix, but yet nothing that paid, right? The most was two on different lines.

            So even if someone can make a pretty good stab at what numbers will hit, they still have to line up as people pick them. But they don't most often.

            As far as people playing having nary a clue, I know people who love to pick their own numbers on Mega Millions, they do it as a small group, and having playing it for a long time.

            Then when it comes to the Mega number, if someone suggests a number that was picked in the top matrix, most of them say, "We already played that number."

            I think we can say that if lack of knowledge of the game generates a lot of quick pick plays, lust for the jackpot generates belief in "my numbers have got to hit."

            As some sage has said, doing the same thing over and over expecting different results is one form of insanity.

            True, that goes for both quick picks and player picks, but sticking with a set of numbers that hasn't hit since Hannibal crossed the Alps might be a bit much.

            Good Luck all!

            CT,

            We both assume many things, you say some uncollected jackpots are QP played, I say most uncollected jackpots are QP's, the only way to prove this is with actual statistics.

            The lottery retailers don't make the rules the Lottery boards do that.

            I've seen people spend $2000 on Qp's.  I've heard of even more being spent on QP's at one time.

            As far as the scanned tickets goes, you forgot to state: How many of the 5 digits matrix were on the QP?

            answer: zero.

            3 QP lines 15 numbers zero hits zero ratio

            5 Self Pick lines 16 numbers 4 numbers hit: 1/4 ratio better than zero. And I had at least 1 on every line. 

            That was my point, I had 4 of the 5, that is all.

            You also make the assumption we play the same numbers over and over, wrong assumption.

            I said a lot of people have nary a clue, not all people that play QP's.

            I don't play in a group, although I've been asked many times, here and there.

            You also assume I lust for the jackpot, you assume wrong again.  This is a challenge to defy the odds.

            And as far as doing the same thing over and over again, look in the mirror, you Quickie Pickies promoters are never going to convince us Selfie Pickies that QP's are the way of anything.

            Ever since I got on this site and started CHOOSING my own sets on the jackpot games I've done a whole lot better than QP's ever did.

            Oh yeah, people that give up on playing their own numbers and go to QP's, are now part of the QP masses.

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
              United States
              Member #30470
              January 17, 2006
              10354 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: June 25, 2008, 1:27 am - IP Logged

              jaraan

              From your post above

              "As far as the scanned tickets goes, you forgot to state: How many of the 5 digits matrix were on the QP?

              answer: zero.

              3 QP lines 15 numbers zero hits zero ratio

              5 Self Pick lines 16 numbers 4 numbers hit: 1/4 ratio better than zero. And I had at least 1 on every line. 

              That was my point, I had 4 of the 5, that is all."

              And both your selections and the QPs paid the same, no? Zilch.

              As for quick picks, assumptions, etc...

              Drawing after drawing we see a lot of people assuming they are going to hit, they just know they picked the right numbers, they just know their system will work this time- and if there is a winner, it's usually a quick pick.

              So I'll tell you to prove me wrong - you track the game you're playing, and post the results for the jackpot winners, whether they are QPs or not. Do it for three monthe and then we'll see what it tells us.

              Until then, cheers and good luck.

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                ebearam's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg
                new york
                United States
                Member #60690
                April 28, 2008
                190 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: June 25, 2008, 4:38 am - IP Logged

                jaraan

                From your post above

                "As far as the scanned tickets goes, you forgot to state: How many of the 5 digits matrix were on the QP?

                answer: zero.

                3 QP lines 15 numbers zero hits zero ratio

                5 Self Pick lines 16 numbers 4 numbers hit: 1/4 ratio better than zero. And I had at least 1 on every line. 

                That was my point, I had 4 of the 5, that is all."

                And both your selections and the QPs paid the same, no? Zilch.

                As for quick picks, assumptions, etc...

                Drawing after drawing we see a lot of people assuming they are going to hit, they just know they picked the right numbers, they just know their system will work this time- and if there is a winner, it's usually a quick pick.

                So I'll tell you to prove me wrong - you track the game you're playing, and post the results for the jackpot winners, whether they are QPs or not. Do it for three monthe and then we'll see what it tells us.

                Until then, cheers and good luck.

                Majority of jackpots are won with Qp's, but thats because 95 percent of people dont select there own numbers. So any results page you look at will have a higher ratio for Qp's over personal picks. There would definitely be a larger percentage of jackpot winners on personal picks if it was 50 % each way. Those bad picks aren't going to win majority of the time. My suggestion is to stick with the stats that will give you the best chances to win..I'll post the last 20 days of ny's take 5- and you'll notice that the 3/2 and 2/3 only missed 4 times.. And it stay consistent in this pattern all year round..

                 

                Complete Take Five Results
                Drawing Date#1#2#3#4#5ODDEVENSUM
                2008-06-23681530381497
                2008-06-223101617393285
                2008-06-21131922283423116
                2008-06-2031831343932125
                2008-06-19251317283265
                2008-06-1891415303932107
                2008-06-178141719333291
                2008-06-162567282348
                2008-06-152101922332386
                2008-06-1452223272941106
                2008-06-13112831333432137
                2008-06-12671017222362
                2008-06-114730373823116
                2008-06-10561129314182
                2008-06-095131826293291
                2008-06-08102130373932137
                2008-06-078141723373299
                2008-06-061112130314194
                2008-06-0551518303332101
                2008-06-04142829342396

                 

                Good Luck...

                  jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                  Harbinger
                  D.C./MD.
                  United States
                  Member #44103
                  July 30, 2006
                  5583 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: June 25, 2008, 9:46 am - IP Logged

                  jaraan

                  From your post above

                  "As far as the scanned tickets goes, you forgot to state: How many of the 5 digits matrix were on the QP?

                  answer: zero.

                  3 QP lines 15 numbers zero hits zero ratio

                  5 Self Pick lines 16 numbers 4 numbers hit: 1/4 ratio better than zero. And I had at least 1 on every line. 

                  That was my point, I had 4 of the 5, that is all."

                  And both your selections and the QPs paid the same, no? Zilch.

                  As for quick picks, assumptions, etc...

                  Drawing after drawing we see a lot of people assuming they are going to hit, they just know they picked the right numbers, they just know their system will work this time- and if there is a winner, it's usually a quick pick.

                  So I'll tell you to prove me wrong - you track the game you're playing, and post the results for the jackpot winners, whether they are QPs or not. Do it for three monthe and then we'll see what it tells us.

                  Until then, cheers and good luck.

                  CT,

                  I wish I had time to waste.  I'd rather spend it choosing my own numbers.  Nobody is saying you are wrong, it is a fact more QP's hit the jackpot because as we all know the masses play QP's.

                  I prefer choose MY own numbers and I think QP's are a waste of  MY MONEY,  I do better with MY picks than with QP's. 

                  I constantly prove this to myself everytime I spend a couple of bucks on them. 

                  Why don't you get on one of MADDOGS challenges and post some QP'S and see how they do?

                  Good luck with QP's.

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
                    Member #30470
                    January 17, 2006
                    10354 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 25, 2008, 10:15 am - IP Logged

                    jarasan

                    Thanks for the invite to the MADDOG challenge but I'm striclty a $1 or $2 a draw player and I know I can't pick my nose.

                    I think thus far for the year I"ve spent about $416 in tickets and had $76 in winners (all games). That's probably right around what the lottery would expect as its "hold".

                    I know it's fun working numbers out, I do quite a few of the paper and pencil workouts that have been posted here at LP for Pick 3.

                    But it's just my observation that in jackpot games nothing can match QPs for the percentage of winners.

                    whether I pick the numbers or play a qP, on losing tickets I do a "shot group variance" - see how much I missed by, number by number. I've had toickets that were off by 1, off by 2, hit, hit, off by one, off by 3. I'm sure we all have.

                    But that's why "Close doesn't count" is part of my sig.

                    Wink

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                      Harbinger
                      D.C./MD.
                      United States
                      Member #44103
                      July 30, 2006
                      5583 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: June 25, 2008, 11:14 am - IP Logged

                      jarasan

                      Thanks for the invite to the MADDOG challenge but I'm striclty a $1 or $2 a draw player and I know I can't pick my nose.

                      I think thus far for the year I"ve spent about $416 in tickets and had $76 in winners (all games). That's probably right around what the lottery would expect as its "hold".

                      I know it's fun working numbers out, I do quite a few of the paper and pencil workouts that have been posted here at LP for Pick 3.

                      But it's just my observation that in jackpot games nothing can match QPs for the percentage of winners.

                      whether I pick the numbers or play a qP, on losing tickets I do a "shot group variance" - see how much I missed by, number by number. I've had toickets that were off by 1, off by 2, hit, hit, off by one, off by 3. I'm sure we all have.

                      But that's why "Close doesn't count" is part of my sig.

                      Wink

                      Yes, close doesn't count if you are going for the jackpot, that is an absolute.

                      Searching for the cures of diseases is similar to trying to smack a jackpot, scientists get close all the time, but they don't give up (unless they run out of funding), there are setbacks and advancements, and sometimes they find a cure by research or luck.  I don't give up and throw the towel in and leave it to fate, and most of all, I don't let loses and small wins deter me from finding my way to a jackpot.

                      P.S. You don't need any money for MADDOGS challenge, also you don't have to pick anything, just use the RNG, see how you do, "The QP Way".