Changes to coincide with addition of Florida in January; Jackpots to start at $20 million
Powerball, arguably the world's best known jackpot lottery game, will be making changes to the game with the addition of Florida in January.
The multi-state game will add some white ball numbers and will remove some red ball numbers, to accomodate the increase in number of players once Florida joins the game. If the number matrix is not changed, the jackpot would be hit too often, and it would not reach the levels that are important to the game's popularity.
The number of white balls will increase from 55 to 59 while the number of red balls will decrease from 42 to 39. The odds of winning the jackpot will be increased to one in 195.2 million while the overall odds of winning any prize will be dropped to one in 35.1.
"The net effect is that we are adding one more ball to the drums," said Ernie Passailaigue, the Powerball Group Chairman and the Executive Director of the South Carolina Lottery. "With the addition of Florida, Powerball has the chance to become even more exciting by keeping the jackpot levels up where players like to see them, but we also want to do some special things with the game. Even though many players focus on large Powerball jackpots, we still want to create lots of millionaires and we also want to create more winners with better overall odds."
Here are some of the key improvements planned for the game:
- The starting jackpot will increase from $15 million to $20 million, the world's largest starting lotto game jackpot.
- The average jackpot will increase from an expected average of $95.5 million to $141 million.
- The jackpot pool percentage is being increased from (30.3% to 32.5%) to make the jackpot grow faster and larger.
- The Match 5 prize with the Power Play option now has a guaranteed 5X multiplier, pushing the second prize to $1 million — to be paid in one lump sum cash payment. (Power Play is only guaranteed to be 5X for the second prize tier; for all other prizes it continues to be a random number between 2X and 5X.)
- The overall odds of the game have been reduced to add more than 3 million extra prizes won per year.
"The price of a Powerball ticket remains unchanged at $1. Even though our players know that the cost of everything else has gone up since Powerball sales commenced over 16 years ago, we didn't want to raise Powerball's price in our current economy. Powerball players will continue to have the option to play the game for $1 or to play the game with enhanced prizes for $2 by using Power Play," said Passailaigue. "We wanted to give our players the power to choose and with many of our newer member lotteries, more than half of our players have chosen the benefits of the $2 Power Play option."
Powerball will continue to offer the Power Play option for an extra $1 per play, offering a random multiplier of 2X, 3X, 4X or 5X for all cash prizes won (except the Jackpot). However, in the new game, the Match 5 prize is guaranteed to always draw the 5X multiplier, turning the $200,000 cash prize into a $1 million cash prize.
The unique Match 5 BONUS option, which increases the Match 5 prize pool when the game reaches record jackpots, will also continue as a popular feature of the game.
"The Match 5 BONUS feature allows us to occasionally create a rolling Match 5 pool that should offer even more fun and greater prizes for our players," said Passailaigue.
This is the fifth redesign for the best-known multi-state jackpot game since it was created in 1992. The last change was in August 2005. Changes to the current game are expected to be in place by January 2009.
Powerball was launched in April 1992. The 32 lotteries offering the new game are: Arizona Lottery, Colorado Lottery, Connecticut Lottery Corporation, D.C. Lottery (District of Columbia), Delaware Lottery, Idaho Lottery, Hoosier Lottery (Indiana), Iowa Lottery, Kansas Lottery, Kentucky Lottery Corporation, Louisiana Lottery Corporation, Maine Lottery, Minnesota State Lottery, Missouri Lottery, Montana Lottery, Nebraska Lottery, New Hampshire Lottery Commission, New Mexico Lottery, North Carolina Education Lottery, North Dakota Lottery, Oklahoma Lottery, Oregon Lottery, Pennsylvania Lottery, Rhode Island Lottery, South Carolina Education Lottery, South Dakota Lottery, Tennessee Education Lottery, Virgin Islands Lottery, Vermont Lottery, Wisconsin Lottery, and West Virginia Lottery. The Florida Lottery expects to begin selling the game in January, 2009.
A full list of starting dates for each individual jurisdiction, including start dates for Lotto America (the former name of Powerball) are available at USA Mega: http://www.usamega.com/powerball-wheretoplay.htm.
The multi-state web site USA Mega also includes an extensive FAQ section providing other important details of the Powerball (and Mega Millions) game.
This is going to make the game very interesting, but at the same time, less profitable for the lotteries, especially since a match 5 winner with Power Play will automatically win $1 million. I might actually take Power Play once this starts.
This:
The number of white balls will increase from 55 to 59 while the numberof red balls will decrease from 42 to 39. The odds of winning thejackpot will be increased to one in 195.2 million while the overallodds of winning any prize will be dropped to one in 35.1.
is insanity.
We have a friend who just couldn't wait for California to join Mega Millions. He bought all the news hype about potential $500,000,000 jackpots. So California joined in, the matrix expanded, and now the same guy is livid when someone from California wins the jackpot. Go figure!
"If the number matrix is not changed, the jackpot would be hit too often" (but)
"we still want to create lots of millionaires."
They tell us what we want to hear.
They tend to screw us like this when a new state is joinning. Meanwhile they are making the game more impossible.
I don't buy that crap that if Florida joins, the jackpot would be won more often.
It is the same crap, there would be more losers - which by the way is what we do more often.
Arguably?
You don't get that, with FL, the jackpot would be won more often; that with more players, the jackpot would be won more often? Really?
With more population comes the opportunity to make the game better. Bump the jackpot higher - yes with odds that are tougher, but these big games are really a question of fate before and before and before that. Nearly everyone plays for the big jackpot, but the new game will create more millionaires. A GUARANTEED 5X for the Match 5 Power Play. What do you want? A guaranteed 10X? Tough, I know, but folks will just have to learn to be happy with a million in cash. Also 3.5 million more winners at the same sales level (of course, more than that with FL playing). Also, wait until the Match 5 BONUS starts kicking in more often. The big dream is still there, but it is time to spread the wealth a little more.
Well, I am done with Powerball. Going up to 59 white balls???
Insane. I guess my focus will be on Hot Lotto now.
I agree it's insane, but it was at 1 in 147M. I mean, how many times has anyone here won a pick-5 game with odds of 1 in 377k?
Can someone please tell me what the odds of getting the 5 balls will be? Should be around 1 in 5.1M, right? If that's the case, the MM game in FL has a lot better odds. It's a 4 of 44 and 1 of 22 (MB) game.
Think PB is shooting itself in the foot. When people can't even come close to winning the FL Lotto with odds of "only" 1 in 23M, I don't see how they can expect to win PB. I think increasing the 5/5 prize is a good idea...but 59 numbers? Yikes! I just don't see this game being a big hit here in FL, but we can only wait & see.
+1
Looks like the number of games I play per drawing will be about half of what they currently are.
But folks, you see: MOST folks that play the game do NOT know the true odds, so those types will continue to play it as they always have.
I will say I am going from $10 per drawing to $5, MAYBE to $3.
They are taking away 3 red balls - BIG DEAL - those number rarely hit now as it is. (just watch - NOW they will catch on fire)
Did some calculations, and I've estimated that the lower tier payouts (save for the $1,000,000 match 5 w/PP) will remain the same, as well as the odds for each of the Powerplay numbers.
As for the jackpot odds, I think 1 in 200,000,000 is a bit too much, though I suppose it was inevitable, with or without Florida.
MATCH ODDS
5/5+B 1 : 195249054
5/5 1 : 5138133
4/5+B 1 : 723145
4/5 1 : 19030
3/5+B 1 : 13644
3/5 1 : 359
2/5+B 1 : 787
1/5+B 1 : 123
0/5+B 1 : 62
___________________________
overall odds are 1 : 35.1
"But folks, you see: MOST folks that play the game do NOT know the true odds, so those types will continue to play it as they always have."
True. In fact, the more 'clever' players get fed up and quit the game, the better profits for the game.
The more people got good at 'card counting', the more decks were added.
it says guranteed power play of 5x, does that mean you have to pay the $2 a game to get the guarnteed 5x? seems an awful lot of
$1 extra fees to fund this generous bonus? but what everyone already plays the power play?
Yes, but by doing this, they will probably market it as getting 2 games in one. You are now paying $1 for a shot at the PB jackpot and another $1 for a shot at $1 million. Otherwise, you will only get $200,000 if you get 5 numbers. However, if the odds of getting the 5 numbers are 1 in 5.1M then they're not very good IMO but it's a way to generate more money.
Any other comments on this? I might be wrong, but the way I read it, $1 buys one PB ticket and a chance to win the lower prizes, but not with the powerplay. $2 gets you one PB ticket with a chance to win a million if you get the 5 white balls.
Does Powerplay have any effect on the other prizes, like 4 of 5 or 3 of 5, etc.? If so, will there still be a Powerplay spin for those prizes or will they also be multiplied by 5?
EDIT: Just read the article again. Got my answer.
(Power Play is only guaranteed to be 5X for the second prize tier; for all other prizes it continues to be a random number between 2X and 5X.)
Ouch, I knew they were going to mess with the matrices with the addition of Florida, but I didn't think they'd go that nuts with making the odds of winning the jackpot that much worse. That's over a 33% increase which is no way reflective of how many additional players they'll be getting in Florida.
It's kind of messed up that Mega Millions will have better odds when these changes go into effect (if MM doesn't change theirs) and still will have a much larger total population to work with even with Florida joining Powerball. Though it'll still be bringing in much larger jackpots, that's for sure.
Sounds to me like a mining truck or "road-pan" overflowing with it.
Lotteries becoming more like banks and government ..... take everything ..... toss out a crumb or two.
I get why they can technically say they are only adding one more ball to the drum, but they are adding 4 more balls to the drum for the white balls. I don't care that they reduce the red balls. Like guesser said, those balls hardly ever come out anyway. It's the four other balls in the white ball drum I am hating. That vented, I am excited to hear about the change with the 5x for the second tier prize. Makes buying the powerplay option a little more tempting to me. Okay, very tempting. I also like that they up'd the jackpot size increase percentages. And the minimum jackpot to 20 million is a great idea., considering the economy.
On a positive note, We'll get some Brand New Play-slips, wi th new ink, rather than those faded old playslips I've been seeing lately.
I wonder if they'l get all new Ball Sets ...or add brand new balls to the slightly used balls?
Also, I wonder if the Jan. 3rd drawing will be in Fla.?
I guess after the Dec. 31st drawing, I'll be ripping down some wall charts, and getting a new start.
I hope the stores get the right stuff to be in time for the first draw.
I'm just bummed I have to erase all of my drawing history in January.
I agree. I am not impressed. Whoopie they took away three red balls.
Is that suppose to make most players happy and make them not see that they added 4 white balls? It will make getting 5 out of 5 even more hard to get, and the other prizes as well. I have a hard enough time with 55 numbers.
Now would be the time to start writing and asking whether they intend to add 4 new balls to the 55 old balls or add 59 new balls. This would determine whether we keep working old records making allowances for the change or start fresh record keeping as we would for a new game.
Anyone who gets a solid answer please post it or supply it to Todd as news. Don't be surprised to get an ambiguous reply, like they don't understand the question, LOL.
BobP
New ball sets.
How many ball sets will there be in total, and how will they be selected? Will there be pre- and/or post-draws, and if so, is there any chance that those results would be posted or available in some way?
It doesn't really matter to me. It just means bigger jackpots and the jackpot will grow faster. Powerball is a game of fate even with its current odds.
All as before. Four white; four red; two sets of draw machines (four machines). The same pre- and post-test draws. Likely new machines along with the ball sets. Just look for the little red ball.
Well, I hope Floridians are happy that they ruined their in-state game for this!
I bet they will be even happier when they realize that getting a powerball jackpot win will probably come once a year to Florida.
I am not going to go out of my way to play Powerball unless they have a 10x powerplay promotion at the same time they are rolling the jackpot down to the second prize level.....then maybe I'll bother.
I can only describe the new odds a depressing.
However, at $500,000,000 I'll probably buy a ticket but not below that!
Oh and BTW if you check out the new MegaMillions page you will see that some states average about one MM JP per year. I bet with PB some states don't get a JP for years and It will be even longer with the new odds.
There are 12 MM states, all close to the same population. There are 31 PB jurisdictions of wildly different popualtion sizes. What you see is exactly what you should statistically be expected. You can't complain about an orderly universe. Both games should get about 12-15 jackpot hits per year.
I don't see where I was complaining. My point, which I did not make clear, is that these games are jackpot vampires (sucking all the decent sized in-state jackpots up and giving players a jackpot drought in their place).
I'm not much of a mind reader. "Jackpot vampires" is a fun term. My experience is that people pretty quickly move to a state jackpot game of any size because it has better odds. If I'm in a state where I can play, I certainly drop my dollar on MM (for the fickle finger of fate) and on the state game too (with better odds). Probably not so much the fault of the multi-state games as the fault of players if they walk away from a good state game. FL has a great state game. It will see a 30% cut (common in both PB and MM states) but the FL game is big enough that it will do fine; and PB will much more than make up the difference. Not that it makes a big difference to FL. Their profit will be slightly better on a multi-state game (shared costs of production, uplink, and everything else - and in PB's case, a state is paid to join the game) but it is a strong game that deserves the attention of local players.
This should save me money because I play based solely on expectation value, the jackpot divided by the odds.
I don't play when the expectation value is below a certain level, but as it rises, I play more and more.
I have a choice of whether to play Powerball and Mega since I live in a border area between states.
Because Powerball's odds were better, I tended to end up playing powerball more often. That's likely to change now.
I'm not sure when MM makes its game change.
MM is making game changes too?
I don't recall reading or hearing anything about it though they seem to be doing well enough as it is now. I doubt they'd change it in response to Powerball's changes unless MM adds another good size (at least similar to MM's current average state population) state though I don't think there are many, if any left, I'd have too look since I don't know all the states are that are already involved with either game. If Florida had joined Mega Millions they probably would have changed their odds to something like 1 in well over 200,000,000.
Florida is the last U.S. Lottery state to go multi-state. There may be some new lotteries coming, but not anytime soon. Arkansas may be next - in 2010 or so. A few other states flirt with lotteries from time-to-time -- WY, NV, AK, HI have all had bills proposed, but failed.
I think Powerball will reclaim the jackpot record. There's 49 million more combinations, which is a 33% increase. That's huge. Hell, 1 in 1 million is a shot in the dark; much less 1 in 195 million. It's insane. Powerball will start seeing super big jackpots a lot more often now.
But remember that Powerball limits its jackpot growth at the record levels - dumping the money into a Match 5 BONUS pool. That will slow the growth to the world record; spreading the wealth instead.
I think it will get quick tie at $390M when the matrix changes. A few months later, $415M.
From your keyboard to the odds gods . . . .
I think if MM sees that Powerball is getting higher jackpots like 300 million plus, they will have a matrix change as well.
I am holding out for better odds and a $2 ticket price on powerball.
I hope MegaMillions skips the matrix change and just goes to the $2 ticket price and maybe Megaplier, smallaplier(higher prizes at $2 thru $150 level), and bigaplier (higher 2nd 250k level prize and higher 3rd 10k level Prize). I'd get the ticket with bigaplier.
You're in luck. I talked to the managers at Powerball, and they've made special arrangements for you. When you buy your tickets, pay $2 and they'll let you pick 2 sets of numbers, so your odds will be "only" 1 in 97.5 million.
Your wish is granted for MM.
But Powerball is already a $2 game, if you want that. It is just optional. Once, in a candle store, I saw a sign on a giant candle that said "$1 a pull". I talked to the manager and he said that he wanted to stop people from trying to lift the candel by the wick. He had posted a "Don't Lift Candle" sign but found that you can't tell Americans "NO". So, he put up a sign charging $1 to lift the candle by the wick. Americans demand a choice. You can still play Powerball for $1 or for $2 (which redesigns the game to put more money into the lower prize tiers).
Nope, doesn't work that way. That would be 2 in 195 Million.
Ha! It certainly does work that way. 2:195 million is exactly the same thing as 1:97.5 million. Just as buying 195 million tickets is 195M:195M for a 1:1 chance - a guaranteed win.
I understand what you are saying about the smaller prizes but if I want $50 or $100 I will just stop buying tickets. On the same point, if I ever beat Fantasy 5 odds I want more than $10K for it and if I ever beat 6/40 odds I want more than $250k for it and I am willing to kick in the extra buck for bigger prizes at those levels.
I am also willing to pay $2 for a base ticket because I understand the concept of inflation.
Chuck32, yes overall from the point of view of the lottery it does work that way but from the point of view of the player it does not! For the player it IS 2 in 195 million. For any small number of tickets it is Small_Number in 195Million from the point of view of the player.
From the players viewpoint 2 in 195Million is NOT the same as 1 in 97.5Million!
Well, at better than 6/42 odds, you kick in the extra buck for $1 million CASH (don't be fooled by $1 million annuity).
I have no idea where you are coming from. Math is math. 2+2=4. 2:4 is exactly the same as 1:2.
Another way to look at it is to follow it down. 2:195m = 1:97.5M;
97.7M:195M=1:2;
195M:195M=1:1
If you buy 97.5 million tickets, your chances of winning are exactly 1 out of 2. If you buy 195 million tickets your chances of winning are 1 in 1.
Math is not subject to a "different view".
The jackpot only rains on one place and is alot easier to miss with 2 in 195 million odds then it is with genuine 1 in 97.5 million odds. Keep in mind we are talking about buying a small number of tickets. I agree that if you buy a very large number of tickets then your odds do approach that but with a small number of tickets it is small-number in 195million
If you pick numbers that are close to each other then you may have better or worse chances actually...it all depends on where it "rains" the jackpot .
Well, if you buy 2, it is a small number (the number "1) in 97.5. If you buy 4, it is a small number (the number "1") in 48.75.
It is NOT a lot easier to miss with 2:195 million than with a "genuine" 1:97.5 million. It is EXACTLY the same. EXACTLY. People can have their own opinions about subjective things, but not math.
Ok, after this I am going to logoff. Consider this- If I buy two tickets and they both have the same powerball and that powerball does not come up then I cant win the jackpot. If i buy two tickets with different powerballs then my odds change. If I buy two tickets with the same powerball and that powerball comes up then my odds are not 1 in 97.5 Million...it does all depend on where the jackpot "rains"
The odds from the lotterys point of view are different than from the players viewpoint.
Since nobody knows where it will rain the odds from the players viewpoint are 2 in 195million
No. You are incorrect. But I see where your view has gone awry. You are moving into a realm of a "partial drawing" when playing the game. Such a thing does not exist. Before the drawing, any number can come up. The chance of any number coming up, including a set of numbers with or without the same red ball number is the same. 2 in 195 million is always exactly the same as 1 in 97.5.
Chuck32
Powerball and games of that ilk are different beasts. There is no fictional "realm of partial drawings" needed to explain it.
You know going into the game that you need the powerball to win the jackpot.
Here-
Say I buy 39 tickets all covering each powerball. Then my odds are 5 million to 1 (5/59) to win the jackpot because I know I have the powerball *BEFORE* the drawing.
Ok now instead of buying tickets that way I buy 39 easy picks and I look at them and I see that some powerballs are not covered, some powerballs are covered once, and some powerballs are covered more than once. Now what are my odds of winning the Jackpot?
Well let me see, *BEFORE* any drawing takes place I know that there are 3 possible outcomes.
My chance of winning the jackpot could be Zilch cause I missed the powerball.
My chance of winning the jackpot could be 5 million to 1 because the powerball hit where I had it covered once.
My chance of winning the jackpot could be better then 5 million to 1 because the powerball hit where I had it covered more than once.
Now what are my odds *BEFORE* the drawing? knowing that I need the powerball are they 5 Milllion to 1? Well, it could be but I don't know that. All I know *BEFORE* the drawing is that my odds of getting the jackpot are 39 in 195 Million and now you can see why I don't need a fictional realm of partial drawings to describe it that way.
that sucks... looks like i will be back to 1 qp for all of 2009 until there are 100+ draws of history.
thanks MUSL for once again screwing with the "historians"
either that or I now have a goal of winning by december...
Mr. Think,
But you have stepped into that realm of partial draws. Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning. It makes no difference if you some sets of numbers with the same red ball. Every set of numbers has an equal chance on winning the jackpot - I think you will agree with that. You claim not be into the realm of partial draws, but then you begin to break down the time of the drawing into some kind of time when the five numbers have been draw - or even into some realm when the red ball numbers are drawn first outside of the Arrow of Time - and then the you do some more math. Even in a "regular" lotto game, you can do the same thing. Say that one number is drawn and you don't have it, now your odds of winning the jackpot go down (to zero). You can start recalculating again, but that is just not the way lottery odds work. I know that you have to reason to trust my view, but you might swing by your local university to chat your friendly stats professor.
When playing games like PowerBall, you're playing two lotteries, one of 5/55 and another of 1/42. The odds of winning the jackpot are the odds of winning both. If you pick the same PB for each of your combinations of five then your odds of matching the PB remains the same, however if you match it you're match it more than once.
chuck32 writes "Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning."
Yes you are correct but in one case you can simplify the odds before the drawing and in the other case you cant!!!
In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2. Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection. You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations. No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes. Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million.
I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is not correct when considering odds. Each ticket has the same chance of winning, no matter how many you hold - 1 in 197 million.
Look. If I buy 2 Powerball tickets, MY odds are going to be 1 in 97.5 million. I own both tickets. I'm not making millions of combinations disappear either. There is still 195 million possible outcomes, 2 of which I have. I'm just simplifying a fraction.
If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however). You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.
The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets. You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.
You should assume that when discussing combinations, that the person is talking about unique combinations unless they specifically say they aren't. I don't know why people come into a thread saying "But it has to be UNIQUE!". Yes, we already know that.
Discussions about how to express odds, how to best claim a jackpot once it's won and who should share it will alway be around as long as posters have nothing to add to an intelligent discussion about how to win a jackpot. Such discussions don't enlighten anyone about winning a lottery which is why most people read these threads.
This is the fifth redesign for the best-known multi-state jackpot game since it was created in 1992. The last change was in August 2005. Changes to the current game are expected to be in place by January 2009.
Does anyone know what the exact date will be of the first drawing with the matrix change?
I think it still has to go through some approval process. The release says it has a target date of "January."
I hope you win it...
Really, I do.
I won Pick 5 a few years ago (Matrix 38 or 39 I think) playing 2 boards. I don't like matrix changes because not only increasing the odds again but wrecking my best algorithms and having to start a new draw history. After I won the 5 the matrix changed I never got above 3 numbers. By the time my prg. gets a grab on it they change it again! I would rather see more 20M winners than a few per year 200M winners. More people would play if there were more winners at least close to where they live sometimes.
Hopefully at some point, every State will be either PB or MM so there will be no more of this lame excuse when adding a new State to make the game more difficult. I think Florida is the last one of that size that didn't belong to anything.
PS: Warning- in case you are unaware, HOT Lotto is COMPUTERIZED.
Just play the first 55 numbers. the other 4 numbers won't be out very often maybe 6.9362% of the time.
Well you could say any 4 numbers won't come out (on average) more than 6.7797% of the time. But by that logic, playing the first 51 would give you an advantage as well since the last 8 should only show 13.559% of the time :)
Good Point!
Here is the 2008 Powerball Results _ 36 of 89 Drawing had a number draw 50 or above,
53 drawing had no numbers above 50
Jan - 3 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Feb - 2 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Mar - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Apr - 4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
May - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Jun - 5 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Jul - 7 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Aug - 4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Sep - 5 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Oct - 4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
Nov - 0 of the 2 Drawing had a number 50 or higher
710 total number only 45 numbers were 50 and above and this counts multi 50+ number in each drawing