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How to Prove Your Lottery IS Fixed?

Topic closed. 49 replies. Last post 8 years ago by CurtisC.

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February 19, 2002
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Posted: August 29, 2008, 12:30 am - IP Logged

Instead of trying to prove that your computerized lottery IS fixed, first try to prove it is NOT fixed!

The answer is simple: from what we know today, in 2008 (not 1988) about computers and software, there is no valid way to prove it is NOT fixed.

How do we arrive at this conclusion?

The purpose of software is to control outcomes through inputted and/or selected variables by who "operates" or "controls" or "directs" that software.

If computerized lottery software packages did not have the end result of being profitable for the purchaser (= your state!), then no state would purchase it from those vendors who sell it!  Obviously, the vendor demonstrates to the state how outcomes can be selected, in other words, how lottery profitability can be increased.  Thus, the state now has a motivation or reason to purchase it: to increase lottery revenues at the expense of the unsuspecting player.

Therefore, because no rational or valid reasons exist to replace the ping pong ball process of selecting numbers, any computerized lottery is not purely random.

Another way of saying that is this: only ONE way exists to increase lottery revenues more than marketing and gimmicks could ever do and that is by interfering or disrupting or REPLACING the method used since lotteries began: the ping pong ball selection method, the only true, genuinely authentic random number selection process.

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"Facts are the enemy of truth."  - Don Quixote (Miguel de Cervantes)

"Always tell the truth.  That will astonish some and gratify the rest." - Pres. Harry S. Truman

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    NY
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    Posted: August 29, 2008, 1:51 am - IP Logged

    "Therefore, because no rational or valid reasons exist to replace theping pong ball process of selecting numbers, any computerized lotteryis not purely random."

    Unlike some, the lotteries are smart enough to understand that saving money on the cost of drawings is a rational and valid reason to replace the more expensive process of drawing balls.

    "Obviously, the vendor demonstrates to the state how outcomes can be selected"

    Obviously. The vendor demonstrates to the state that the cost of computerized drawings is less than the cost of ball drawings, while offering the same degree of randomness.

    Lotteries, like casino gambling, are a great business to be in. The laws of probability guarantee that  you will make a nice profit, as long as your overhead is reasonable.

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: August 29, 2008, 2:28 am - IP Logged

      Lotteries don't need to be fixed.

      They don't even need the players that believe because they haven't won, it's fixed - but they sure make a lot of money off of them.

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
        Indiana
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        Posted: August 29, 2008, 3:20 am - IP Logged

        A lottery doesn't need to be fixed. They already have way more money coming in than what is going back out in the form of payouts.

        Gonna win.Big Smile

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          Posted: August 29, 2008, 3:37 am - IP Logged

          I am new. The first thing I picked up on LP was a difference in terms: lotto and lottery... and I still get 'em mixed up.

          The wife of a kid I grew up with just finished her career in a State lotto/lottery commission admin office. The State began with Power ball, then added P3 later on... I started playing P3 and HotLotto a short time ago and really don't have enough time-in-service to comment in length about fixed games, only opinion.

          But in conversation with my old pal and his wife regarding her in-house stories and comment, I'd have a hard time accepting the games are rigged. The lotto/lottery offices usually have a lot of employees... and you probably know yourself that secrets don't stay private very long at the water cooler. It wouldn't take much for an ambitious ladder-climber, moralist, or whistle-blower to drop the dime... No one would want to be implicated when word got out - prison orange is not appealing.   

          Nothing kills business quicker than dishonesty. If you’ve got a money makin' machine going without thumbing the scales, it would be just plain stupid to put the whole thing on the line to make a few more bucks. And the way I hear it, security's pretty tight in those offices - everyone’s watchin' everyone.

          Sure, they can change the matrix, machines, and go from ping-pong balls to zeros and ones, but it would seem the first thing they'd want is to be able to prove at anytime, the system is above reproach... there's just too much to lose.

          Of course, there's always the occasional employee who tries to cook the books; and again, all they gotta do is flip the matrix when they think they need a bigger bite of the apple – and most players know what happens to the odds when they do.... So from that perspective, I guess you can say it's legally fixed. But then, hey, they publish the odds, and nobody has any beef because they can always say, "If you don't like long-shot odds, don't play - no one put a gun to your head forcing you to buy tickets."

          I'm willing to bet, even when they tighten odds via matrix change, pre tests, and adding mixer-machines, etc., they'll still have plenty of players with sharp pencils crunchin' the numbers and trackin’ stats - people trying to find the way to beat the system. Yeah, don't want to rock the boat when you're milkin' the cow; they don't want even the appearance of corruption; and the way I hear it, they take extra measures to ensure an honest game: just like casinos, it's not necessary to stack decks and load the wheel - the odds are already with 'em... just a matter of sittin' back, countin' profit dollars.

          I tend to get too cynical sometimes, myself. Sure enough, it's a good thing that players hold LotComs feet to fire, especially when they start gettin’ greedy. I would like to see a quarterly National Lotto/Lottery where they don’t get any money except admin costs, the game design has 7 pay-out tiers, and lucky winners walk, tax free.  

            LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
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            Posted: August 29, 2008, 5:32 am - IP Logged

            ....just like casinos, it's not necessary to stack decks and load the wheel - the odds are already with 'em... just a matter of sittin' back, countin' profit dollars.

             

            I was at the MGM casino in Las Vegas a few years back.  I happened to be playing their
            "Cherries Jubilee" $1 slot machines at about 1:45pm.   (little did I know that they were
            going to run a promotion at 2pm to promote their newly installed slot machines).
            At this time no one but myself was playing these machines and there was no one around
            working on the machines either.  Within the next 15 minutes, MGM personnel set up a
            microphone with a commentator and a loud speaker system inviting people to play these
            machines.  Not many people were paying attention.  Well, at exactly 2pm, the Cherries Jubilee
            slot machines started hitting $1000 jackpots right down the line.  In less than fifteen minutes,
            just about all the machines hit $1000 jackpots.  (Probably, over thirty machines)
            You couldn't get a seat at those slots after the first or second jackpot hit.
            (Looked like a shark feeding frenzy) - in a casino.  Needless to say, if you won a jackpot, you
            also got a very nice looking Cherries Jublilee winning T-Shirt in addition to your $1000 jackpot.

            WAS IT RIGGED?  YOUR DARN RIGHT IT WAS RIGGED!!  - Thank Goodness too (If it wasn't for
            their promotion, I would have probably left a loser; instead, I got a jackpot!)  After fifteen
            minutes, the machines got tighter and tighter, still paying jackpots though --but the feeding
            frenzy was on.  I went back about midnight and you still couldn't get a seat.

              Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
              Wisconsin
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              Posted: August 29, 2008, 8:13 am - IP Logged

              "Therefore, because no rational or valid reasons exist to replace theping pong ball process of selecting numbers, any computerized lotteryis not purely random."

              Unlike some, the lotteries are smart enough to understand that saving money on the cost of drawings is a rational and valid reason to replace the more expensive process of drawing balls.

              "Obviously, the vendor demonstrates to the state how outcomes can be selected"

              Obviously. The vendor demonstrates to the state that the cost of computerized drawings is less than the cost of ball drawings, while offering the same degree of randomness.

              Lotteries, like casino gambling, are a great business to be in. The laws of probability guarantee that  you will make a nice profit, as long as your overhead is reasonable.

              Well said.  Just because on any given day we don't get the numbers that a player thinksd should be drawn, doesn't mean that player was correct.  That doesn't even happen in the ball drawn games.

              If it were all that easy, the lotteries would have to close down because there would be so many winners.

              Sometimes it seems that players tend to forget that lotteries exist not to greate winners by the truckload, but to make profit.  No profit, no lottery.

              ============

              How can you tell if a politician is lying?

              Answer: His lips are moving.

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                Posted: August 29, 2008, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

                ....just like casinos, it's not necessary to stack decks and load the wheel - the odds are already with 'em... just a matter of sittin' back, countin' profit dollars.

                 

                I was at the MGM casino in Las Vegas a few years back.  I happened to be playing their
                "Cherries Jubilee" $1 slot machines at about 1:45pm.   (little did I know that they were
                going to run a promotion at 2pm to promote their newly installed slot machines).
                At this time no one but myself was playing these machines and there was no one around
                working on the machines either.  Within the next 15 minutes, MGM personnel set up a
                microphone with a commentator and a loud speaker system inviting people to play these
                machines.  Not many people were paying attention.  Well, at exactly 2pm, the Cherries Jubilee
                slot machines started hitting $1000 jackpots right down the line.  In less than fifteen minutes,
                just about all the machines hit $1000 jackpots.  (Probably, over thirty machines)
                You couldn't get a seat at those slots after the first or second jackpot hit.
                (Looked like a shark feeding frenzy) - in a casino.  Needless to say, if you won a jackpot, you
                also got a very nice looking Cherries Jublilee winning T-Shirt in addition to your $1000 jackpot.

                WAS IT RIGGED?  YOUR DARN RIGHT IT WAS RIGGED!!  - Thank Goodness too (If it wasn't for
                their promotion, I would have probably left a loser; instead, I got a jackpot!)  After fifteen
                minutes, the machines got tighter and tighter, still paying jackpots though --but the feeding
                frenzy was on.  I went back about midnight and you still couldn't get a seat.

                You could be right about that: but for, my neighbor’s son Sean who works in LV as a Slot maintenance tech: installs new machines, repairs, fixes, tests settings and calibrates software, all that.  

                The way I understand it — just got off the phone with Sean’s dad — applicable States have gaming laws that require Slot payouts not fall below a regulated threshold percentage — in Nevada it’s 75% — see Minimum Standards for Gaming Devices - Code 14.040 - gamingNV.gov.

                Yes, machines can be rigged by the Licensee to payout more than 75% (promotions etc.); however, by law, Slots and other devices cannot be set to fall below threshold limits, regulated by State Law — enforced by State GameComz.

                Same goes for Lotto/Lottery: They can arbitrarily increase payouts/odds anytime the urge dictates, but not take ‘em below what the Law requires as the minimum theoretical threshold.

                Your story serves a good point: timing is everything.

                  BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                  Dump Water Florida
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                  Posted: August 29, 2008, 2:24 pm - IP Logged

                  I don't know if the game is rigged or not and I don't know if the game is computer drawn, but it does seem to me the Ontario Pick-3 does not appear to have the usual rate of boxed repeats you'd expect to find.

                  http://www.lotterypost.com/game/245/results&p=1

                  BobP

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                    Posted: August 29, 2008, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

                    "Therefore, because no rational or valid reasons exist to replace theping pong ball process of selecting numbers, any computerized lotteryis not purely random."

                    Unlike some, the lotteries are smart enough to understand that saving money on the cost of drawings is a rational and valid reason to replace the more expensive process of drawing balls.

                    "Obviously, the vendor demonstrates to the state how outcomes can be selected"

                    Obviously. The vendor demonstrates to the state that the cost of computerized drawings is less than the cost of ball drawings, while offering the same degree of randomness.

                    Lotteries, like casino gambling, are a great business to be in. The laws of probability guarantee that  you will make a nice profit, as long as your overhead is reasonable.

                    Maybe you can enlighten me on several things, KY Floyd because these are things I do not know:

                    One, what are all the costs and the amounts of such in a drawing involving the balls as opposed to the computer?  Weren't televised drawings the best way to assure ticket buyers or the public that the lotteries were run fairly and squarely?

                    Two, why not avoid TV advertising costs by making it able to be viewed on the internet if that happens to be such a huge cost?  

                    Three, what percentage are those particular expenses against the profit made in a day by a state lottery?

                    Four, why pay for a vendor when free RNG exist here on the net and at LP?  Surely, other "fringe benefits" for the state are there or implied, right?

                    Fifth, since we can launch a missile from ten thousand miles away to land on the head of the first letter of this post, don't you think that a computer can be programmed to "scan" the selections LEAST selected for that drawing and pick one of those (or none!) to increase the state's profit?

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                      Posted: August 29, 2008, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

                      A lottery doesn't need to be fixed. They already have way more money coming in than what is going back out in the form of payouts.

                      That's a good point, Guru 101.  If a lottery does not need to be fixed, why do they go computerized?

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                        Posted: August 29, 2008, 3:59 pm - IP Logged

                        I am new. The first thing I picked up on LP was a difference in terms: lotto and lottery... and I still get 'em mixed up.

                        The wife of a kid I grew up with just finished her career in a State lotto/lottery commission admin office. The State began with Power ball, then added P3 later on... I started playing P3 and HotLotto a short time ago and really don't have enough time-in-service to comment in length about fixed games, only opinion.

                        But in conversation with my old pal and his wife regarding her in-house stories and comment, I'd have a hard time accepting the games are rigged. The lotto/lottery offices usually have a lot of employees... and you probably know yourself that secrets don't stay private very long at the water cooler. It wouldn't take much for an ambitious ladder-climber, moralist, or whistle-blower to drop the dime... No one would want to be implicated when word got out - prison orange is not appealing.   

                        Nothing kills business quicker than dishonesty. If you’ve got a money makin' machine going without thumbing the scales, it would be just plain stupid to put the whole thing on the line to make a few more bucks. And the way I hear it, security's pretty tight in those offices - everyone’s watchin' everyone.

                        Sure, they can change the matrix, machines, and go from ping-pong balls to zeros and ones, but it would seem the first thing they'd want is to be able to prove at anytime, the system is above reproach... there's just too much to lose.

                        Of course, there's always the occasional employee who tries to cook the books; and again, all they gotta do is flip the matrix when they think they need a bigger bite of the apple – and most players know what happens to the odds when they do.... So from that perspective, I guess you can say it's legally fixed. But then, hey, they publish the odds, and nobody has any beef because they can always say, "If you don't like long-shot odds, don't play - no one put a gun to your head forcing you to buy tickets."

                        I'm willing to bet, even when they tighten odds via matrix change, pre tests, and adding mixer-machines, etc., they'll still have plenty of players with sharp pencils crunchin' the numbers and trackin’ stats - people trying to find the way to beat the system. Yeah, don't want to rock the boat when you're milkin' the cow; they don't want even the appearance of corruption; and the way I hear it, they take extra measures to ensure an honest game: just like casinos, it's not necessary to stack decks and load the wheel - the odds are already with 'em... just a matter of sittin' back, countin' profit dollars.

                        I tend to get too cynical sometimes, myself. Sure enough, it's a good thing that players hold LotComs feet to fire, especially when they start gettin’ greedy. I would like to see a quarterly National Lotto/Lottery where they don’t get any money except admin costs, the game design has 7 pay-out tiers, and lucky winners walk, tax free.  

                        Maybe everybody IS watching everyone, Curtis.  But nobody watches what the computer programmer does since he/she is the only one or ones at the state who knows what the software is, its "features", and what it is capable of.

                        I'm not cynical.  I'm just prone to using "reason" to question the existence or so called "necessity" of software driven number selection.

                        If it's software driven, it's ultimately "selected" by a human being.

                        Just like the players here determine how they want their particular lottery software package to work. 

                          time*treat's avatar - radar

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                          Posted: August 29, 2008, 4:06 pm - IP Logged

                          Define "fixed". Skeptical

                          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                            Posted: August 29, 2008, 5:25 pm - IP Logged

                            You have a valid point… particularly in light of controversy surrounding the advent of computerized voting machines. There will always be good cause for questions.

                            My friend's wife said that the prevailing belief among the lottery gods is that software is better at random selection that mechanical methods and means… that, if you look at data and statistics, software generated numbers flatten the field and make it more difficult for pencil necks to beat the system. I do not know how to prove or disprove her assertions, but that’s what she said.

                            Looking at mechanical draw data/stats, the results suggest definite OE/HL and group ranges etc. that demonstrate trends — which theoretically give an edge to those who study their scratch sheets… I have read some posters who claim the same is true with computer software — only not as easy to filter and organized the information. With the coming PB matrix shift, I will be learning more about the nature of WHN’s right along with eveyone.

                            time*treat: Define legally “fixed?” In context: a payout threshold set at predetermined percentages? Does that work? Not?

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                              Posted: August 29, 2008, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

                              I don't know if the game is rigged or not and I don't know if the game is computer drawn, but it does seem to me the Ontario Pick-3 does not appear to have the usual rate of boxed repeats you'd expect to find.

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/game/245/results&p=1

                              BobP

                              Hi BobP: I took a look: good point... Then when results fail to run even, is there any other possible explaination - other than fraud?