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Developing a winning MegaMillions System

Topic closed. 1111 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Stack47.

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mdmegamillplyr's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
Baltimore, MD
United States
Member #67219
November 20, 2008
105 Posts
Offline
Posted: December 5, 2008, 3:21 pm - IP Logged

I was just joking around Rj, Ive paid attention to and respect your dedicated MM work, I also play only MM so developing a system is something Im interested in.  Good luck tonight!

    kjs703's avatar - batman08
    Alexandria,VA
    United States
    Member #51062
    March 26, 2007
    367 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 5, 2008, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

    Greetings all:
    Sorry for doing two posts today within the system topic for
    draw 12/5/08….
    But I tried to develop a new system which automatically
    selected twenty numbers and then populated them into rows
    of five per row. Since everything is done at a “push of
    a button” – I am hoping to remove the human element out of it.
    The twenty numbers are chosen based on “out” status meaning how
    many draws out the number is.  
    They are first divided into four categories
    Cold Numbers (greater 20 out),
    Luke Warm Numbers (11-19 Out),
    Warm Numbers (6-10 Out) and
    Hot Numbers (0-5 Out).  
    Then the numbers are selected four for Cold,
    four for Luke Warm, five for Warm and seven for hot.  
    Then the select numbers are sorted and then wheeled.
    Since I did not purchase any of these lines,
    my luck is all five will be in this set….Ha ha


    Here are the twenty Numbers
    1-2-3-5-7
    9-12-19-20-25
    33-34-36-37-39
    40-45-47-52-56

    Here are the wheeled numbers

    1-2-3-5-7
    9-12-19-20-25
    33-34-36-37-39
    40-45-47-52-56
    1-3-7-12-20
    9-19-25-34-37
    33-36-39-45-52
    5-9-19-25-34
    2-5-9-19-25
    7-12-20-33-36
    25-34-37-40-47
    19-25-34-37-40
    1-5-12-25-36
    7-19-33-37-45
    25-36-40-52-56
    3-9-20-34-39
    9-33-40-47-52
    1-9-33-40-52
    2-12-34-45-56
    3-19-36-47-56

    Will see how these do........

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19826 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: December 5, 2008, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

      These are my picks for tonight drawing 12/05/08.  All the combinations use 5 numbers from the previous drawings without skipping over one already picked,"clean look back", and the bonus numbers were the most popular ones in the last 360 drawings.
       
         06-11-24-41-43+15
         05-19-21-27-48+02
         16-23-33-36-56+11
         14-28-31-38-45+39
         03-17-18-32-55+07
         07-15-29-42-47+36
         14-19-39-47-56+30
         15-23-38-41-46+09
         01-18-21-24-39+12
         03-25-29-36-49+01
         10-11-17-30-53+41
         03-24-27-38-47+42
         01-14-27-29-33+38
         13-21-45-49-56+37
         07-11-18-34-46+22
         01-19-42-44-48+10
         07-15-16-41-45+05
         09-16-31-33-49+04
         17-32-34-46-55+18
         11-27-41-43-48+40

      Good luck if you played tonight.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19826 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: December 5, 2008, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

        Tonight's winning numbers:21 27 46 52 55  +14

           06-11-24-41-43+15
           05-19-21-27-48+02
           16-23-33-36-56+11
           14-28-31-38-45+39
           03-17-18-32-55+07
           07-15-29-42-47+36
           14-19-39-47-56+30
           15-23-38-41-46+09
           01-18-21-24-39+12
           03-25-29-36-49+01
           10-11-17-30-53+41
           03-24-27-38-47+42
           01-14-27-29-33+38
           13-21-45-49-56+37
           07-11-18-34-46+22
           01-19-42-44-48+10
           07-15-16-41-45+05
           09-16-31-33-49+04
           17-32-34-46-55+18
           11-27-41-43-48+40

        I'll give it a try next time if no one wins the jackpot tonight. 

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
          CT
          United States
          Member #61398
          May 21, 2008
          781 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: December 6, 2008, 1:25 am - IP Logged

          Result: 21-27-46-52-55  +14

          1. 01-09-28-35-48 +7
          2. 04-10-25-39-42 +24
          3. 04-23-31-34-44 +25
          4. 06-16-28-34-52 +22
          5. 07-20-38-39-53 +11
          6. 07-24-25-43-44 +2
          7. 07-26-31-35-42 +4
          8. 08-09-21-33-52 +26
          9. 08-16-36-49-53 +30
          10. 10-24-35-45-52 +5
          11. 10-26-27-39-46 +17
          12. 10-30-38-44-50 +36
          13. 11-24-31-38-54 +37
          14. 12-19-24-42-56 +29
          15. 14-15-34-43-53 +32
          16. 15-20-26-33-44 +38
          17. 16-20-25-45-54 +39
          18. 22-23-28-46-56 +21
          19. 22-27-38-42-45 +15
          20. 22-33-43-48-49 +14

          Picked up 4 of 5 WB's in my pool, and 2 2+0's and a 0+1. Most of the hits from the numbers tonight were on tickets I filtered out, but all 20 I removed (I start with 40) didn't have more than 1+0 hits. 10 of the 20 I filtered out had the 1+0 hits.

            Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
            CT
            United States
            Member #61398
            May 21, 2008
            781 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: December 6, 2008, 1:43 am - IP Logged

            For those that like our posts for the next draw early, I'll post mine now. ;)  Just worked them up, hot off the press..

            For 12/09:

            1. 01-07-24-29-53 +24
            2. 01-08-21-38-39 +25
            3. 03-10-27-40-54 +7
            4. 04-10-20-30-45 +22
            5. 04-14-18-29-36 +2
            6. 05-18-28-45-53 +11
            7. 07-15-36-38-45 +4
            8. 07-16-21-26-42 +26
            9. 08-09-22-27-35 +30
            10. 08-11-26-48-50 +17
            11. 09-17-21-37-51 +36
            12. 10-15-17-24-48 +37
            13. 10-16-25-35-39 +5
            14. 11-16-22-29-37 +29
            15. 11-17-29-30-35 +32
            16. 14-15-27-32-42 +38
            17. 17-18-23-44-54 +39
            18. 18-20-22-39-48 +21
            19. 20-33-36-52-54 +15
            20. 21-25-37-40-53 +19

            Not sure if I mentioned before, but I slightly changed my picking algorithms 2 draws ago.  Now I'm using a variant on the followers (that I mentioned earlier in this thread).  I'm not using what I call a 'Followers + Siblings' method.  What I do is first compute the followers, and pick one ball that has the highest tally of followers for all 5 (combined) of the previously drawn WB's.  Then I run another calculation that looks at all past draws and finds which balls typically show *with* that ball the most.  For instance, when all followers for 21,27,46,52 and 55 are added together, the ball #53 has the highest occurances of showing after any of those balls have hit. I then pick 44 balls (for 45 total) which have been seen the most with ball #53.  Their order is as follows for 12/09:

            53, 52, 05, 08, 22, 37, 55, 01, 07, 11, 21, 28, 48, 54, 09, 10, 17, 23, 30, 35, 36, 39, 42, 51, 04, 15, 16, 29, 38, 40, 44, 45, 50, 56, 02, 03, 14, 18, 20, 24, 25, 26, 27, 32, 33

            This method with 45 picks matches 3 or better in the pool 78.6% of the time (since the matrix change).  This algorithm matches all 5 balls drawn 19.6% of the time.  For MB's I choose the top 20 'Due' balls, where the algorithm hits the MB in the selected pool 44.4% of the time with 20 picks. I used to use the top 20 repeat positions for this pick (we use Repeats in Powerball, credit to RJ for that algorithm), but picking the top 20 repeat positions has only matched the MB draw 34.1% of the time since the matrix change in Mega Millions.

            The MB's 'Due' order for the 12/09 MM drawing is:

            24, 25, 07, 22, 02, 11, 04, 26, 30, 17, 36, 37, 05, 29, 32, 38, 39, 21, 15, 19

              Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
              CT
              United States
              Member #61398
              May 21, 2008
              781 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: December 6, 2008, 1:44 am - IP Logged

              Tonight's winning numbers:21 27 46 52 55  +14

                 06-11-24-41-43+15
                 05-19-21-27-48+02
                 16-23-33-36-56+11
                 14-28-31-38-45+39
                 03-17-18-32-55+07
                 07-15-29-42-47+36
                 14-19-39-47-56+30
                 15-23-38-41-46+09
                 01-18-21-24-39+12
                 03-25-29-36-49+01
                 10-11-17-30-53+41
                 03-24-27-38-47+42
                 01-14-27-29-33+38
                 13-21-45-49-56+37
                 07-11-18-34-46+22
                 01-19-42-44-48+10
                 07-15-16-41-45+05
                 09-16-31-33-49+04
                 17-32-34-46-55+18
                 11-27-41-43-48+40

              I'll give it a try next time if no one wins the jackpot tonight. 

              Not too shabby RJ, you matched 4 of 5 WB's in your pool, that is always good.

                LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
                Texas
                United States
                Member #33719
                February 24, 2006
                705 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: December 6, 2008, 4:02 am - IP Logged

                For those that like our posts for the next draw early, I'll post mine now. ;)  Just worked them up, hot off the press..

                For 12/09:

                1. 01-07-24-29-53 +24
                2. 01-08-21-38-39 +25
                3. 03-10-27-40-54 +7
                4. 04-10-20-30-45 +22
                5. 04-14-18-29-36 +2
                6. 05-18-28-45-53 +11
                7. 07-15-36-38-45 +4
                8. 07-16-21-26-42 +26
                9. 08-09-22-27-35 +30
                10. 08-11-26-48-50 +17
                11. 09-17-21-37-51 +36
                12. 10-15-17-24-48 +37
                13. 10-16-25-35-39 +5
                14. 11-16-22-29-37 +29
                15. 11-17-29-30-35 +32
                16. 14-15-27-32-42 +38
                17. 17-18-23-44-54 +39
                18. 18-20-22-39-48 +21
                19. 20-33-36-52-54 +15
                20. 21-25-37-40-53 +19

                Not sure if I mentioned before, but I slightly changed my picking algorithms 2 draws ago.  Now I'm using a variant on the followers (that I mentioned earlier in this thread).  I'm not using what I call a 'Followers + Siblings' method.  What I do is first compute the followers, and pick one ball that has the highest tally of followers for all 5 (combined) of the previously drawn WB's.  Then I run another calculation that looks at all past draws and finds which balls typically show *with* that ball the most.  For instance, when all followers for 21,27,46,52 and 55 are added together, the ball #53 has the highest occurances of showing after any of those balls have hit. I then pick 44 balls (for 45 total) which have been seen the most with ball #53.  Their order is as follows for 12/09:

                53, 52, 05, 08, 22, 37, 55, 01, 07, 11, 21, 28, 48, 54, 09, 10, 17, 23, 30, 35, 36, 39, 42, 51, 04, 15, 16, 29, 38, 40, 44, 45, 50, 56, 02, 03, 14, 18, 20, 24, 25, 26, 27, 32, 33

                This method with 45 picks matches 3 or better in the pool 78.6% of the time (since the matrix change).  This algorithm matches all 5 balls drawn 19.6% of the time.  For MB's I choose the top 20 'Due' balls, where the algorithm hits the MB in the selected pool 44.4% of the time with 20 picks. I used to use the top 20 repeat positions for this pick (we use Repeats in Powerball, credit to RJ for that algorithm), but picking the top 20 repeat positions has only matched the MB draw 34.1% of the time since the matrix change in Mega Millions.

                The MB's 'Due' order for the 12/09 MM drawing is:

                24, 25, 07, 22, 02, 11, 04, 26, 30, 17, 36, 37, 05, 29, 32, 38, 39, 21, 15, 19

                Stew12,

                Nice Analysis!  Great job.

                Instead of using #53, Could you also run your analysis using the number #14 and post their order? 

                Thanks,

                LottoL

                  fja's avatar - gnome1

                  United States
                  Member #91
                  January 19, 2002
                  11931 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: December 6, 2008, 9:40 am - IP Logged
                  02-11-27-31-39+42
                  02-12-23-26-32+24
                  02-13-20-22-51+10
                  02-37-40-47-54+29
                  03-08-12-27-40+15
                  03-11-26-51-54+05
                  03-22-23-39-50+11
                  04-08-39-47-51+26
                  04-11-15-23-37+13
                  04-12-20-50-54+07
                  04-13-17-26-27+39
                  04-22-31-32-40+37
                  08-13-23-31-54+16
                  11-12-17-22-47+23
                  11-13-40-44-50+18
                  12-13-24-37-39+40
                  12-15-31-44-51+21
                  15-22-24-27-54+03
                  17-23-24-40-51+46
                  17-32-39-44-54+35

                   

                  Nothing but Ice...

                  20-linesplayedplayed  best 
                  date  25-wb's20-mb's  combo
                  27-Sep210+1
                  30-Sep101+0
                  3-Oct000+0
                  7-Oct201+0
                  10-Oct201+0
                  14-OctDNPDNPDNP
                  17-OctDNPDNPDNP
                  21-Oct010+1
                  24-Oct302+0
                  28-Oct413+0/1+1
                  31-Oct111+1
                  4-Nov410+1
                  7-Nov210+1
                  11-Nov101+0
                  14-Nov301+0
                  18-Nov111+1
                  21-Nov402+0
                  25-Nov402+0
                  28-Nov010+1
                  2-Dec101+0
                  5-Dec101+0

                  "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

                    kjs703's avatar - batman08
                    Alexandria,VA
                    United States
                    Member #51062
                    March 26, 2007
                    367 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: December 6, 2008, 10:25 am - IP Logged

                    I am doing the results for the both posts here...

                    the winning Nums  21-27-46-52-55+14

                    From First Post

                    1)04-05-12-15-38++23
                    2)08-12-15-23-38++21
                    3)08-15-18-23-37++05
                    4)04-15-21-27-40++23
                    5)05-18-23-36-50++02
                    6)12-15-21-37-50++07
                    7)18-21-36-37-40++18
                    8)21-23-25-37-38++23
                    9)04-08-37-40-54++11
                    10)10-15-22-35-48++16
                    11)12-18-23-45-50++12
                    12)16-21-26-37-50++23
                    13)02-05-18-25-38++01
                    14)01-05-18-27-38++33
                    15)05-06-12-29-37++25
                    16)03-05-12-15-38++29
                    17)07-05-18-25-38++31
                    18)08-15-32-38-50++22
                    19)09-12-21-37-43++16
                    20)09-25-32-37-54++07

                    From Second Post - Just the twenty num pick

                    Here are the twenty Numbers
                    1-2-3-5-7
                    9-12-19-20-25
                    33-34-36-37-39
                    40-45-47-52-56

                    Did pretty bad this round ... first post only had two numbers and as usual no MEGA

                    The twenty post only had one in it.........

                    Back to the design.............

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
                      March 24, 2001
                      19826 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: December 7, 2008, 1:35 am - IP Logged

                      For those that like our posts for the next draw early, I'll post mine now. ;)  Just worked them up, hot off the press..

                      Stew,
                      That was quick.  Do your software use the same settings every time?  I usually check both my pick and reject files from the last drawing and try to tweak my parameters settings before coming up with my picks for the next drawing.

                      I calculated some parameters settings for Saturday Ohio Classic Lotto game (6/49) and ran off 50 lines which I posted on the prediction board.  They matched 3 and 4 which would have paid $72, but I've never had the desire to play that many lines in a local jackpot game.  Once in a way I might play 20 lines and I'm lucky to match 3 for $2, I win more spending the same amount playing MegaMillions.  I did calculate the parameters a little differently for the 6/49 game and may try the same thing with the MegaMillion this Tuesday.  Now that it getting close to $200M, it time to try everything.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        Avatar
                        New Member
                        Sydney
                        Australia
                        Member #66273
                        October 21, 2008
                        11 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: December 7, 2008, 3:47 am - IP Logged

                        For those that like our posts for the next draw early, I'll post mine now. ;)  Just worked them up, hot off the press..

                        For 12/09:

                        1. 01-07-24-29-53 +24
                        2. 01-08-21-38-39 +25
                        3. 03-10-27-40-54 +7
                        4. 04-10-20-30-45 +22
                        5. 04-14-18-29-36 +2
                        6. 05-18-28-45-53 +11
                        7. 07-15-36-38-45 +4
                        8. 07-16-21-26-42 +26
                        9. 08-09-22-27-35 +30
                        10. 08-11-26-48-50 +17
                        11. 09-17-21-37-51 +36
                        12. 10-15-17-24-48 +37
                        13. 10-16-25-35-39 +5
                        14. 11-16-22-29-37 +29
                        15. 11-17-29-30-35 +32
                        16. 14-15-27-32-42 +38
                        17. 17-18-23-44-54 +39
                        18. 18-20-22-39-48 +21
                        19. 20-33-36-52-54 +15
                        20. 21-25-37-40-53 +19

                        Not sure if I mentioned before, but I slightly changed my picking algorithms 2 draws ago.  Now I'm using a variant on the followers (that I mentioned earlier in this thread).  I'm not using what I call a 'Followers + Siblings' method.  What I do is first compute the followers, and pick one ball that has the highest tally of followers for all 5 (combined) of the previously drawn WB's.  Then I run another calculation that looks at all past draws and finds which balls typically show *with* that ball the most.  For instance, when all followers for 21,27,46,52 and 55 are added together, the ball #53 has the highest occurances of showing after any of those balls have hit. I then pick 44 balls (for 45 total) which have been seen the most with ball #53.  Their order is as follows for 12/09:

                        53, 52, 05, 08, 22, 37, 55, 01, 07, 11, 21, 28, 48, 54, 09, 10, 17, 23, 30, 35, 36, 39, 42, 51, 04, 15, 16, 29, 38, 40, 44, 45, 50, 56, 02, 03, 14, 18, 20, 24, 25, 26, 27, 32, 33

                        This method with 45 picks matches 3 or better in the pool 78.6% of the time (since the matrix change).  This algorithm matches all 5 balls drawn 19.6% of the time.  For MB's I choose the top 20 'Due' balls, where the algorithm hits the MB in the selected pool 44.4% of the time with 20 picks. I used to use the top 20 repeat positions for this pick (we use Repeats in Powerball, credit to RJ for that algorithm), but picking the top 20 repeat positions has only matched the MB draw 34.1% of the time since the matrix change in Mega Millions.

                        The MB's 'Due' order for the 12/09 MM drawing is:

                        24, 25, 07, 22, 02, 11, 04, 26, 30, 17, 36, 37, 05, 29, 32, 38, 39, 21, 15, 19

                        Stew,

                         

                        Would it be possible for you to express that as "Percentage versus Random Play" ?  I gave the formula a few pages back.

                        Over a number of draws, calculate the average hit. ( 3 or better in the pool 78.6% of the time and 5 balls drawn 19.6% of the time.) I'm gonna pluck a number out of the air and say the average was 4.1.

                        (4.1 / 5) / (45 / 55) = 100%  which is precisely equal to random play. (Not sure whether you're playing a 55 or 56 WB game).

                         

                        I've been experimenting with your Siblings of Followers method on my local 5 from 45 powerball. The best I've gotten so far is using the top 4 pairs of the top 5 followers. Discard the followers. Adding in my latest discoveries, which hit 0.625 from 2.625 at 214% and 0.875 from 4.125 at 190%, over 8 consecutive draws I'm hitting an average 2.875 from 16.75 at 154%. Over those 8 draws, best was 4 from 14 (257%), and worst was 2 from 18 (100%).

                        I truly hope that what I've written makes at least some sense.

                         

                        Amanda

                          Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                          CT
                          United States
                          Member #61398
                          May 21, 2008
                          781 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: December 7, 2008, 10:28 am - IP Logged

                          Stew12,

                          Nice Analysis!  Great job.

                          Instead of using #53, Could you also run your analysis using the number #14 and post their order? 

                          Thanks,

                          LottoL

                          Sure.  Using ball #14 as the focus produces these results:

                          Top 45: 14, 43, 44, 25, 35, 42, 50, 20, 26, 27, 31, 32, 40, 49, 56, 24, 34, 39, 41, 47, 48, 51, 01, 05, 12, 18, 21, 23, 30, 36, 45, 52, 02, 03, 08, 09, 11, 13, 15, 16, 19, 22, 29, 38, 53

                          Converting those to a ticket array (using a pattern I generated for 45 numbers that evenly distributes them over 40 tickets), gives us this:

                          01-03-08-35-50
                          01-09-45-52-53
                          01-11-18-29-38
                          01-21-22-26-31
                          02-05-26-47-53
                          02-08-38-42-51
                          02-12-20-22-50
                          02-14-19-31-35
                          02-22-25-27-40
                          03-09-16-44-48
                          03-12-30-36-45
                          03-15-29-32-39
                          05-08-21-25-43
                          05-11-19-20-27
                          05-31-34-42-56
                          08-19-22-32-56
                          09-18-39-41-50
                          09-24-29-36-49
                          11-12-13-23-48
                          11-39-44-53-56
                          12-15-24-41-52
                          13-14-32-44-52
                          13-15-35-40-51
                          13-34-39-45-49
                          14-16-20-23-26
                          14-19-31-36-42
                          14-36-40-43-50
                          15-43-48-49-53
                          16-18-24-34-40
                          16-32-38-43-45
                          18-26-30-48-52
                          19-21-24-47-51
                          20-22-36-42-47
                          20-25-30-31-51
                          21-23-27-35-42
                          23-27-34-41-47
                          23-30-32-40-53
                          25-29-35-47-56
                          26-27-50-51-56
                          30-38-41-44-49

                          Filtering tickets out that do not match:

                          > SUMS:   100-200
                          > RANGES: 23-52
                          > SPACES: 1-25
                          > GAP:
                          Pos.#1: AB
                          Pos.#2: ABC
                          Pos.#3: BCD
                          Pos.#4: CDE
                          Pos.#5: DE

                          Gives us 20 tickets:

                          02-05-26-47-53
                          02-14-19-31-35
                          02-22-25-27-40
                          03-12-30-36-45
                          03-15-29-32-39
                          05-08-21-25-43
                          08-19-22-32-56
                          09-18-39-41-50
                          09-24-29-36-49
                          11-12-13-23-48
                          12-15-24-41-52
                          13-14-32-44-52
                          13-15-35-40-51
                          14-19-31-36-42
                          16-18-24-34-40
                          16-32-38-43-45
                          18-26-30-48-52
                          19-21-24-47-51
                          20-22-36-42-47
                          20-25-30-31-51

                          I would then add my picks for MB's, which is the top 20 'Due'.  Those balls are:

                          24,25,07,22,02,11,04,26,30,17,36,37,05,29,32,38,39,21,15,19

                          ..And give us the final output:

                          1. 02-05-26-47-53 +24
                          2. 02-14-19-31-35 +25
                          3. 02-22-25-27-40 +7
                          4. 03-12-30-36-45 +22
                          5. 03-15-29-32-39 +2
                          6. 05-08-21-25-43 +11
                          7. 08-19-22-32-56 +4
                          8. 09-18-39-41-50 +26
                          9. 09-24-29-36-49 +30
                          10. 11-12-13-23-48 +17
                          11. 12-15-24-41-52 +36
                          12. 13-14-32-44-52 +37
                          13. 13-15-35-40-51 +5
                          14. 14-19-31-36-42 +29
                          15. 16-18-24-34-40 +32
                          16. 16-32-38-43-45 +38
                          17. 18-26-30-48-52 +39
                          18. 19-21-24-47-51 +21
                          19. 20-22-36-42-47 +15
                          20. 20-25-30-31-51 +19

                          Hope that helps!

                            Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                            CT
                            United States
                            Member #61398
                            May 21, 2008
                            781 Posts
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                            Posted: December 7, 2008, 10:43 am - IP Logged

                            For those that like our posts for the next draw early, I'll post mine now. ;)  Just worked them up, hot off the press..

                            Stew,
                            That was quick.  Do your software use the same settings every time?  I usually check both my pick and reject files from the last drawing and try to tweak my parameters settings before coming up with my picks for the next drawing.

                            I calculated some parameters settings for Saturday Ohio Classic Lotto game (6/49) and ran off 50 lines which I posted on the prediction board.  They matched 3 and 4 which would have paid $72, but I've never had the desire to play that many lines in a local jackpot game.  Once in a way I might play 20 lines and I'm lucky to match 3 for $2, I win more spending the same amount playing MegaMillions.  I did calculate the parameters a little differently for the 6/49 game and may try the same thing with the MegaMillion this Tuesday.  Now that it getting close to $200M, it time to try everything.

                            RJ, the only settings I would change are filter settings (for after tickets are created) and which algorithm to use to generate picks.  So basically each set of numbers would produce 1 possible ticket array.  Sometimes I change the pattern, but not too often.  The pattern is based only on an even distrubition, not any paramaters set depending on draw history.

                              Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                              CT
                              United States
                              Member #61398
                              May 21, 2008
                              781 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 7, 2008, 11:27 am - IP Logged

                              Stew,

                               

                              Would it be possible for you to express that as "Percentage versus Random Play" ?  I gave the formula a few pages back.

                              Over a number of draws, calculate the average hit. ( 3 or better in the pool 78.6% of the time and 5 balls drawn 19.6% of the time.) I'm gonna pluck a number out of the air and say the average was 4.1.

                              (4.1 / 5) / (45 / 55) = 100%  which is precisely equal to random play. (Not sure whether you're playing a 55 or 56 WB game).

                               

                              I've been experimenting with your Siblings of Followers method on my local 5 from 45 powerball. The best I've gotten so far is using the top 4 pairs of the top 5 followers. Discard the followers. Adding in my latest discoveries, which hit 0.625 from 2.625 at 214% and 0.875 from 4.125 at 190%, over 8 consecutive draws I'm hitting an average 2.875 from 16.75 at 154%. Over those 8 draws, best was 4 from 14 (257%), and worst was 2 from 18 (100%).

                              I truly hope that what I've written makes at least some sense.

                               

                              Amanda

                              Calculating 'Percentage versus Random Play' does play out to almost exactly 100% over the entire life of MM history, but shows much better in smaller doses.  Calcualting for the past 6 draws shows an averge of 4.5, giving us (4.5/5)/(45/56) = 112%.  Using smaller amounts of draws like this shows anywhere from 68% (April 8 -May 2) to 120% (August 12 to August 29).  The highest possible percentage for picking 45 numbers with this equation is (5/5)/(45/56) = 124%.

                                 
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