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Developing a winning MegaMillions System

Topic closed. 1111 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Stack47.

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time*treat's avatar - radar

United States
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March 30, 2005
2171 Posts
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Posted: November 9, 2008, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

For those playing at home, FFG = fundamental formula of gambling. If an action (or series of events) has a known likelihood of success, there is a number of trials at which the event will have had a 50% chance of occurring.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19823 Posts
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    Posted: November 9, 2008, 9:59 pm - IP Logged

    For those playing at home, FFG = fundamental formula of gambling. If an action (or series of events) has a known likelihood of success, there is a number of trials at which the event will have had a 50% chance of occurring.

    How would that formula work with a game like MegaMillions where the overall odds of winning a prize are 1:39.8?  Could that formula be used to calculate if the real odds of winning a prize are different than those posted on the play slips and at the MM website?

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      time*treat's avatar - radar

      United States
      Member #13130
      March 30, 2005
      2171 Posts
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      Posted: November 10, 2008, 4:37 am - IP Logged

      Essentially the formula is 1-n^x, where N is the odds of a thing happening (xor not happening) in a single trial, and X is the number of trials. Think coins or dice; it makes the numbers easier. The way Saliu used it in his explanations was that when n^x equaled 0.5 (thus 1-n^x equaled 0.5) then by X number of trials, you had a 50% chance of success.

      He created a table where X ran across the top as integer exponents and N ran down the side as percents for various outcomes, e.g. .5 for coin tosses, multiples of 1/36 for dice/basic roulette. The result is a table that shows you odds of success (however you define that) as a number between 0 and 1 by the time you reach a certain number of trials.

      Since JP games have partial prizes, those odds can be used in places of N. While I think the basic formula can be used in many ways as it is fairly simple, there are easier ways of calculating true odds.

      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

        diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
        Dallas, TX
        United States
        Member #60284
        April 12, 2008
        3856 Posts
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        Posted: November 10, 2008, 6:10 pm - IP Logged

        Interesting thread, been following it for awhile now. Would you guys mind if I join in on the play? Tomorrow drawing is at 51 Mill.

          Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
          CT
          United States
          Member #61398
          May 21, 2008
          781 Posts
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          Posted: November 10, 2008, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

          I think I speak for us all when I say, Come on in! The more knowledge we can bring to the table, the better.

            diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
            Dallas, TX
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            April 12, 2008
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            Posted: November 10, 2008, 7:45 pm - IP Logged

            From my observation on Mega Million I see:

            - There are no repeating numbers from the previous result. There were once that happend in the last 20 days, on 10/14/08, number 14 repeated from the previous drawing, from 10/10/08. So automatically we reduce 56 down to 51 numbers.

            - From 1 - 56 I have divided them into numbers group. I also do this for pick 5 games, helps to see which set of numbers to eliminate without worries.

            A: 1 - 14
            B: 15 - 28
            C: 29 - 42
            D: 43 - 56

            Previous 20 results shows, ACD and no B being the best set. This happen 6 out of 20 times.
            ABCD also happend 6 out of 20 times.
            BCD and no A happens 1 times.
            ABD no C happened 2 times.

            If going with ACD that's another 14 numbers out the window, bringing down the pool to 42 numbers. The previous mentioned 5 numbers from the previous result that will not be repeating may vary, they can be from the same group B (as that's already been taken out) which will not make much of a difference. However, it is still good to keep this in mind.

            - Another observation is that when ACD and no B hits, group A usually has 1 number out of 14 in that group will show, about 5 out of 20 times. In general, 1 number from group A will show up 13 out of 20 times.

            - Observation on MB. Again, I divide up the numbers 1 - 46 into groups A,B,C,D.

            A: 1 - 11
            B: 12 - 23
            C: 24 - 35
            D: 36 - 46

            50% of the time (10 out of 20) the MB is in group D, it has shown up 2 times with ACD WB. Group A shown 3/20 times, B shown 4/20 times, and C 2/20 times.

            So, from 56 we reduce 14 if use one of the set; ABD, ACD, ABCD, we get 42 numbers, reduce 13 from group A down to 29 WB, and factoring in the no repeated numbers from the previous results, 5 numbers can be from any groups, and the reducing may vary based on where the 5 numbers being reduced from based on the previous drawing. If they are from the group that already being deducted from the pool, then it will not do you any good, however if it is from the group that you are playing from, then you can reduce 29 down to 24 WB. From there select 12 WB from 24 remaining WB to wheel based on your play budget. As for MB group D shows up 50% of the time. Select 4 numbers between 36 - 46.

              fja's avatar - gnome1

              United States
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              January 19, 2002
              11927 Posts
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              Posted: November 11, 2008, 7:08 am - IP Logged
              03-04-08-18-53+42
              03-05-13-21-51+24
              03-06-24-37-54+12
              03-11-36-48-56+25
              03-14-40-43-44+22
              04-05-11-24-40+32
              04-13-20-36-43+27
              04-29-37-48-51+28
              04-32-44-54-56+26
              05-06-18-20-56+17
              05-08-32-37-43+33
              05-14-29-36-54+30
              06-08-36-44-51+02
              06-11-29-43-53+37
              06-13-32-40-48+16
              08-11-13-31-54+23
              08-14-20-24-48+38
              11-14-18-32-51+36
              11-20-21-37-44+09
              13-14-37-53-56+21

              "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

                diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
                Dallas, TX
                United States
                Member #60284
                April 12, 2008
                3856 Posts
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                Posted: November 11, 2008, 3:38 pm - IP Logged

                06-31-34-47-56+36
                07-43-47-50-55+39
                08-29-35-50-55+42
                06-31-47-50-56+36
                07-29-31-35-43+39
                08-34-35-43-55+42
                06-29-43-55-56+36
                07-31-34-47-55+39
                08-34-35-50-56+42
                06-29-34-55-56+36
                07-31-47-35-50+39
                08-29-31-43-50+42
                06-31-47-50-55+36
                07-35-43-47-56+39
                08-29-34-35-43+42
                06-34-35-47-56+36
                07-29-43-50-56+39
                08-29-31-34-55+42
                06-35-43-47-56+36
                07-29-31-50-55+39

                  LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
                  Texas
                  United States
                  Member #33719
                  February 24, 2006
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                  Posted: November 11, 2008, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

                  Does anyone eliminate numbers by their As Drawn Position?
                  Generally speaking, no more than three numbers will be selected for each position.
                  This may help you to narrow down your possibilities.

                  As Drawn positions for the 11/11/08 MB draw are:

                  Position 1 (14) -> 24 - 23 - 17 - 48 - 52 - 42 - 27 - 22 - 50 - 40 - 08 - 11 - 56 - 37
                  Position 2 (11) -> 32 - 41 - 29 - 06 - 33 - 16 - 38 - 36 - 01 - 18 - 03
                  Position 3 (08) -> 14 - 21 - 02 - 45 - 05 - 15 - 09 - 20
                  Position 4 (13) -> 43 - 10 - 47 - 46 - 34 - 19 - 28 - 51 - 25 - 13 - 49 - 26 - 04
                  Position 5 (10) -> 44 - 55 - 07 - 39 - 31 - 35 - 30 - 12 - 54 - 53


                  Good Luck!
                  LottoL

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19823 Posts
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                    Posted: November 11, 2008, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

                    These are my picks for tonight:

                      1. 05 19 25 26 36 +12
                      2. 12 33 40 49 54 +11
                      3. 08 27 34 38 50 +35
                      4. 01 13 19 33 50 +01
                      5. 11 26 31 38 49 +44
                      6. 05 08 30 51 54 +39
                      7. 12 15 21 36 46 +40
                      8. 11 16 21 24 45 +07
                      9. 07 13 35 44 45 +41
                     10. 17 22 30 31 53 +23
                     11. 10 25 29 34 40 +30
                     12. 01 15 29 44 48 +16
                     13. 06 07 22 32 55 +05
                     14. 09 27 28 43 55 +42
                     15. 09 10 24 42 48 +15
                     16. 10 11 33 36 43 +38
                     17. 02 24 28 46 49 +10
                     18. 12 16 17 27 48 +04
                     19. 01 17 34 41 45 +22
                     20. 06 16 23 29 50 +37

                    Good luck!!

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                      CT
                      United States
                      Member #61398
                      May 21, 2008
                      781 Posts
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                      Posted: November 11, 2008, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

                      RESULT: 05-27-38-42-55 +41

                      1. 02-08-27-41-52 +16
                      2. 02-12-20-38-51 +21
                      3. 02-14-24-40-44 +23
                      4. 02-19-25-46-50 +36
                      5. 02-20-33-40-48 +9
                      6. 04-05-24-33-46 +38
                      7. 05-11-25-36-44 +35
                      8. 05-19-38-40-52 +4
                      9. 05-20-27-31-48 +44
                      10. 06-12-24-45-48 +30
                      11. 06-12-27-40-46 +37
                      12. 06-27-33-36-38 +7
                      13. 08-22-36-40-48 +40
                      14. 08-31-33-41-53 +2
                      15. 11-14-22-41-46 +39
                      16. 11-19-31-40-51 +22
                      17. 14-19-27-45-53 +13
                      18. 14-25-33-48-51 +46
                      19. 15-24-25-38-53 +27
                      20. 22-25-31-45-52 +17

                      Had 3 of 5 WB's in my group of 30 top Followers. Balls 5,27,38,42,55 were ranked 2,7,28,38,41 respectively. Some stats for the draw:

                      SUM:    167
                      RANGE:  50
                      SPACES: 22,11,4,13
                      GAPS:   ACDDE

                      I had all filters were correct for this draw.

                      Also, checking tickets I filtered out would have had nothing better than 1+0 hits.  I am satisfied with my ticket filtering for this draw since the allowed tickets included all of the bigger (2+0) hits when filtered from 40 tickets down to 20.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19823 Posts
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                        Posted: November 11, 2008, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

                        Tonight's winning numbers :  05 27 38 42 55 +41

                          1. 05 19 25 26 36 +12
                          2. 12 33 40 49 54 +11
                          3. 08 27 34 38 50 +35
                          4. 01 13 19 33 50 +01
                          5. 11 26 31 38 49 +44
                          6. 05 08 30 51 54 +39
                          7. 12 15 21 36 46 +40
                          8. 11 16 21 24 45 +07
                          9. 07 13 35 44 45 +41
                         10. 17 22 30 31 53 +23
                         11. 10 25 29 34 40 +30
                         12. 01 15 29 44 48 +16
                         13. 06 07 22 32 55 +05
                         14. 09 27 28 43 55 +42
                         15. 09 10 24 42 48 +15
                         16. 10 11 33 36 43 +38
                         17. 02 24 28 46 49 +10
                         18. 12 16 17 27 48 +04
                         19. 01 17 34 41 45 +22
                         20. 06 16 23 29 50 +37

                        Just a 0+1 tonight for $2 tonight
                        The conditions I was looking for existed tonight but I failed to take advantage of them.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                          CT
                          United States
                          Member #61398
                          May 21, 2008
                          781 Posts
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                          Posted: November 11, 2008, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

                          The conditions I was looking for existed tonight but I failed to take advantage of them.

                          You mean the 'clean look back'?

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19823 Posts
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                            Posted: November 12, 2008, 12:57 am - IP Logged

                            The conditions I was looking for existed tonight but I failed to take advantage of them.

                            You mean the 'clean look back'?

                            Yes, four or the numbers were included in a clean look back.

                               1 678  TUE 11/11/08   05 27 38 42 55    41 
                            -----------------------------------------------------
                               2 676    1 11/04/08   10 21 23 41 55     09     1*
                                1 ----------------------------------------
                               5 673    2 10/24/08   05 33 34 47 52    18     1*
                                2 ----------------------------------------
                               6 672    3 10/21/08   16 19 39 42 44    38     1*
                                3 ----------------------------------------
                               7 671    4 10/17/08   07 15 27 28 31    35     1*
                                4 ----------------------------------------
                               8 670    5 10/14/08   14 35 41 42 51    23     1
                              10 668    7 10/07/08   02 25 35 38 42    34     2*
                                5 ----------------------------------------
                                    1/ 2    2/ 5    3/ 6    4/ 7    7/10

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              fja's avatar - gnome1

                              United States
                              Member #91
                              January 19, 2002
                              11927 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: November 12, 2008, 6:55 am - IP Logged
                              03-04-08-18-53+42
                              03-05-13-21-51+24
                              03-06-24-37-54+12
                              03-11-36-48-56+25
                              03-14-40-43-44+22
                              04-05-11-24-40+32
                              04-13-20-36-43+27
                              04-29-37-48-51+28
                              04-32-44-54-56+26
                              05-06-18-20-56+17
                              05-08-32-37-43+33
                              05-14-29-36-54+30
                              06-08-36-44-51+02
                              06-11-29-43-53+37
                              06-13-32-40-48+16
                              08-11-13-31-54+23
                              08-14-20-24-48+38
                              11-14-18-32-51+36
                              11-20-21-37-44+09
                              13-14-37-53-56+21

                               

                              20-linesplayedplayed  best 
                              date  25-wb's20-mb's  combo
                              27-Sep210+1
                              30-Sep101+0
                              3-Oct000+0
                              7-Oct201+0
                              10-Oct201+0
                              14-OctDNPDNPDNP
                              17-OctDNPDNPDNP
                              21-Oct010+1
                              24-Oct302+0
                              28-Oct413+0/1+1
                              31-Oct111+1
                              4-Nov410+1
                              7-Nov210+1
                              11-Nov101+0

                              "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

                                 
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