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Developing a winning MegaMillions System

Topic closed. 1111 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Stack47.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19825 Posts
Offline
Posted: November 4, 2008, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

Tonight's winning numbers: 10 21 23 41 55  +09

  1. 19 29 30 43 45 +22
  2. 17 25 34 43 44 +23
  3. 05 16 32 38 51 +16
  4. 01 24 27 36 49 +12
  5. 01 22 29 30 44 +34
  6. 19 24 33 36 54 +35
  7. 09 13 16 33 45 +39
  8. 06 25 32 44 49 +11
  9. 19 33 38 49 51 +04
 10. 05 06 17 27 43 +44
 11. 09 17 34 38 45 +05
 12. 13 17 27 30 49 +07
 13. 01 23 36 38 44 +21
 14. 01 16 23 24 45 +41
 15. 06 16 38 43 49 +10
 16. 13 29 32 34 45 +37
 17. 17 32 33 44 51 +30
 18. 02 15 16 33 46 +01
 19. 05 19 22 29 50 +02
 20. 01 19 29 32 43 +15

Win some, lose some.  Congratulation fja on having all the winning numbers including the bonus number in your picks.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
    CT
    United States
    Member #61398
    May 21, 2008
    781 Posts
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    Posted: November 4, 2008, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

    Result: 10-21-23-41-55 +09

    1. 01-20-32-54-55 +36
    2. 02-08-40-42-56 +40
    3. 02-14-38-40-54 +4
    4. 02-32-36-46-49 +34
    5. 03-07-42-46-54 +23
    6. 03-16-40-48-55 +21
    7. 03-32-35-39-56 +16
    8. 05-07-32-38-55 +44
    9. 05-18-21-42-54 +2
    10. 05-21-23-43-56 +38
    11. 07-13-32-40-54 +7
    12. 07-18-39-48-49 +33
    13. 07-20-35-36-49 +18
    14. 12-14-25-39-54 +37
    15. 12-20-21-38-48 +39
    16. 12-23-32-40-42 +22
    17. 14-16-20-42-56 +30
    18. 14-18-25-42-53 +3
    19. 16-21-25-32-53 +32
    20. 20-23-26-39-55 +26

    3 of 5 WB's for me with a 32 number pool of top followers.  Only 2 2+0's and 7 1+0's. The 2 WB's I missed were ranked 43 (#10) and 50 (#41) according to my followers method for the previous draw. The 3 WB's I caught were 21 (ranked #26), 23 (ranked #18) and 55 (ranked #30).

    Using 'Due' numbers would have only warranted one hit on ball 41, ranked 23rd with that method.  Using Due 'Top Ranks' would have gave 4 hits with the same 32 number WB pool.

    All numbers would have been hit using a 'Longest Since Seen' method with a 32 WB pick. Ball 10 was 3rd longest out, ball 21 was 13th longest out, ball 23 was 16th longest out, ball 41 was 31st longest out and ball 55 was 6th longest out.  Good night to play cold numbers I guess.

    Here are some stats for the draw tonight:

    Sum: 150

    Range: 45

    Spaces: 11,2,18,14 (difference between each position)

    Gap: ABCDE

    My tickets were filtered using Sums of 137-165 and 'Gaps' of AB,ABC,BCD,CDE and DE for each position respectively.  The draw was inside those ranges, but I did not work in Spaces and Ranges to the filtering before last draw.  I will use those statistics in my filter for Friday, although none of it does much good without hitting more WB's in my pick :)

      fja's avatar - gnome1

      United States
      Member #91
      January 19, 2002
      11929 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: November 5, 2008, 6:40 am - IP Logged

      Thanks RJ, but i only had 4 of the wb's and the Mb.  Best line was a 0+1

      02-03-29-41-42+42

      02-04-22-38-47+24
      02-07-10-45-56+12
      02-08-17-28-55+25
      02-11-37-49-53+09
      03-07-24-28-53+15
      03-08-22-49-56+05
      03-10-21-37-47+11
      03-34-38-45-55+41
      04-07-34-42-49+46
      04-08-10-24-41+13
      04-28-29-37-45+07
      07-08-20-37-38+39
      07-11-41-47-55+44
      08-11-21-42-45+04
      08-29-34-47-53+34
      10-17-38-42-53+23
      10-20-29-49-55+38
      11-24-29-38-56+36
      17-24-45-47-49+40

       

       

      20-linesplayedplayed  best 
      date  25-wb's20-mb's  combo
      27-Sep210+1
      30-Sep101+0
      3-Oct000+0
      7-Oct201+0
      10-Oct201+0
      14-OctDNPDNPDNP
      17-OctDNPDNPDNP
      21-Oct010+1
      24-Oct302+0
      28-Oct413+0 / 1+1
      31-Oct111+1
      4-Nov410+1
             
             

      "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

        Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
        CT
        United States
        Member #61398
        May 21, 2008
        781 Posts
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        Posted: November 5, 2008, 11:32 am - IP Logged

        Here are my picks for Friday.  I'm using followers and whittled the WB number selection down to 30.  Going to try to reduce the amount of numbers I pick, for hopefully better percentages of hits in the long run.

        Followers with a 30 WB selection have matched 3 or better 55.43% of the time over the past 350 draws.

        I am picking 40 tickets with a pattern generated by my software for equal matches, and filtering those tickets down to 20.

        TICKET FILTERS:

        > SUMS:   103-200
        > RANGES: 26-52
        > SPACES: 1-20
        >GAP:
        - 1 - A/B
        - 2 - A/B/C
        - 3 - B/C/D
        - 4 - C/D/E
        - 5 - D/E

        These filters would have allowed 150 of the past 351 winners to sneak through (42.73%).  Going to have to try to increase that in the future, but I may need to just create 30 or so tickets so I don't have to weed out as much as 50% of them to be left with 20 picks for the draw.  I'll keep track of tickets I filtered out and I will review those after the draw as well.

        1. 02-12-24-40-51 +36
        2. 02-17-26-43-54 +9
        3. 02-18-23-32-34 +21
        4. 04-05-22-35-46 +40
        5. 04-17-30-43-51 +35
        6. 04-24-34-44-50 +23
        7. 05-14-23-40-50 +34
        8. 05-16-25-43-44 +37
        9. 07-09-23-25-40 +38
        10. 07-16-24-35-53 +4
        11. 07-18-30-39-46 +44
        12. 09-22-24-26-43 +39
        13. 12-13-23-43-53 +22
        14. 13-14-26-44-46 +30
        15. 13-18-34-35-40 +2
        16. 14-22-33-34-53 +26
        17. 14-25-32-35-51 +5
        18. 16-17-22-40-54 +18
        19. 16-23-34-39-51 +46
        20. 17-23-26-35-50 +28

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19825 Posts
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          Posted: November 5, 2008, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

          Last night's winning MM numbers had no numbers from the previous five drawings.  This has happened 7 times this year and a total of 33 times since the last matrix change 352 drawings ago which is 9.4% of the time.  That is significant enough that I may have to rethink some of the parameters I use to make my picks.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
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            Avatar
            New Member
            Sydney
            Australia
            Member #66273
            October 21, 2008
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            Posted: November 6, 2008, 1:46 am - IP Logged

            What was the running skip (draws since last drawn) of these cold numbers.  Can you draw any conclusions from this ?

            Amanda

              time*treat's avatar - radar

              United States
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              March 30, 2005
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              Posted: November 6, 2008, 4:56 am - IP Logged

              @RJOh: How evenly spead out were those 7 and 33 times?

              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19825 Posts
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                Posted: November 6, 2008, 9:24 am - IP Logged

                @RJOh: How evenly spead out were those 7 and 33 times?

                The last 10 occurrences were:

                 11/04/08 - 10 21 23 41 55 +09
                 10/24/08 - 05 33 34 47 52 +18
                 08/26/08 - 06 16 24 34 36 +30
                 08/22/08 - 12 13 15 41 42 +37
                 07/29/08 - 11 13 20 30 42 +03
                 05/20/08 - 02 14 26 32 41 +32
                 01/04/08 - 24 31 39 40 56 +32
                 12/18/07 - 03 23 46 48 49 +02
                 11/13/07 - 15 26 36 39 40 +45
                 07/24/07 - 08 17 20 23 50 +17

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19825 Posts
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                  Posted: November 6, 2008, 9:40 am - IP Logged

                  What was the running skip (draws since last drawn) of these cold numbers.  Can you draw any conclusions from this ?

                  Amanda

                  No, these numbers weren't necessarily cold, it's just that none of them had hit in the previous 5 drawings. All had hit in the previous 38 drawings, 23 and 41 had hit five times in the period.   In the past, 50% of the time , two of the winning numbers had hit in the previous 5 drawings.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                    CT
                    United States
                    Member #61398
                    May 21, 2008
                    781 Posts
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                    Posted: November 6, 2008, 9:40 am - IP Logged

                    What was the running skip (draws since last drawn) of these cold numbers.  Can you draw any conclusions from this ?

                    Amanda

                    The skips for 10,21,23,41,55 were 38,19,16,6,26 respectively.  I haven't worked too hard on a skip algorithm for WB's yet, but it is something I may work on shortly. I'll will let you know If I find any information worthwhile.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
                      March 24, 2001
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                      Posted: November 6, 2008, 10:09 am - IP Logged

                      The skips for 10,21,23,41,55 were 38,19,16,6,26 respectively.  I haven't worked too hard on a skip algorithm for WB's yet, but it is something I may work on shortly. I'll will let you know If I find any information worthwhile.

                      How do you figure your skip and hit?  I had the following for the last 300 drawings:

                      10 = 16/13 (average/median)
                      21 = 13/8
                      23 = 13/9
                      41 = 14/13
                      55 = 13/8

                      This is how I figured skip for #10

                       11/04/08   10 21 23 41 55    09
                       06/24/08   10 22 36 50 53    39
                       01/08/08   10 29 45 52 54    10
                       11/27/07   09 10 26 29 39    10
                       10/09/07   01 10 17 32 51    44
                       10/05/07   10 19 37 40 48    01
                       09/11/07   09 10 17 21 35    06
                       08/10/07   10 20 32 33 54    39
                       06/26/07   04 10 20 29 45    21
                       05/25/07   10 14 22 42 43    01
                       04/24/07   08 10 35 36 43    14
                       04/20/07   01 09 10 23 53    40
                       03/09/07   10 13 25 42 43    30
                       01/02/07   09 10 38 51 53    01
                       12/29/06   03 04 10 39 50    29
                       11/03/06   08 10 22 25 55    22
                       08/15/06   10 12 22 44 48    16
                       06/02/06   03 10 18 36 38    41
                       04/14/06   08 10 18 29 33    10
                       12/23/05   10 37 39 49 54    08

                      There were 19 skips during the last 300 drawings
                      skip:number of skips
                       1: 3
                       9: 3
                      12: 2
                      14: 2
                       7: 1
                      13: 1
                      16: 1
                      19: 1
                      21: 1
                      23: 1
                      32: 1
                      38: 1
                      48: 1
                      Add them up and divide by 19 = 16 average /half were above 13 and half below 13 so median = 13

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                        CT
                        United States
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                        Posted: November 6, 2008, 11:42 am - IP Logged

                        My skip report there was just the most recent skips.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
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                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
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                          Posted: November 6, 2008, 12:22 pm - IP Logged

                          My skip report there was just the most recent skips.

                          Thanks, I see how you came up with your results.

                             1 676  TUE 11/04/08   10 21 23 41 55    09
                          ----------------------------------------------
                             6 670    1 10/14/08   14 35 41 42 51    23
                             9 667    2 10/03/08   13 28 32 41 52    16
                            13 663    3 09/19/08   02 09 41 48 51    37
                            16 660    4 09/09/08   22 23 28 49 52    02
                            18 658    5 09/02/08   14 23 43 44 54    39
                            19 657    6 08/29/08   21 25 26 50 51    22
                            21 655    7 08/22/08   12 13 15 41 42    37
                            23 653    8 08/15/08   08 23 29 30 53    07
                            24 652    9 08/12/08   02 07 23 38 40    40
                            26 650   11 08/05/08   09 21 36 38 55    13
                            30 646   12 07/22/08   02 16 23 29 32    46
                            31 645   13 07/18/08   17 29 36 53 55     26
                            34 642   14 07/08/08   01 20 22 29 41    35
                            38 638   15 06/24/08   10 22 36 50 53    39

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            Avatar
                            New Member
                            Sydney
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                            Posted: November 6, 2008, 3:37 pm - IP Logged

                            The skips for 10,21,23,41,55 were 38,19,16,6,26 respectively.  I haven't worked too hard on a skip algorithm for WB's yet, but it is something I may work on shortly. I'll will let you know If I find any information worthwhile.

                            That many long skips coming out in the same draw is certainly unusual.

                            I've been limiting max skip in my number pool to 14, but am about to change that to a per-number calculation of average skip plus 0.7 * standard deviation, which gives me an overall average still equal to 14 (range 12-19 typically). This is for a 5/45 game. For a 5/55 game, that 14 should be nearer 15 or 16.

                            My skip limit of 14 historically passes 83% of numbers.

                            I'm also working on Stew's concept of Followers, as a "Least Followers Filter". Deleting from the pool where the follower count is less than the average count minus one standard deviation.

                            Amanda

                              Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                              CT
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                              May 21, 2008
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                              Posted: November 7, 2008, 10:44 am - IP Logged

                              That many long skips coming out in the same draw is certainly unusual.

                              I've been limiting max skip in my number pool to 14, but am about to change that to a per-number calculation of average skip plus 0.7 * standard deviation, which gives me an overall average still equal to 14 (range 12-19 typically). This is for a 5/45 game. For a 5/55 game, that 14 should be nearer 15 or 16.

                              My skip limit of 14 historically passes 83% of numbers.

                              I'm also working on Stew's concept of Followers, as a "Least Followers Filter". Deleting from the pool where the follower count is less than the average count minus one standard deviation.

                              Amanda

                              Keep us posted on your results Amanda.  I began to use standard deviation in my prediction algorithms but haven't worked with it since for a while since those methods (for me) showed little to no profit.  It will be interesting to see what you come up with.

                                 
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