Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 3, 2016, 12:35 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Developing a winning MegaMillions System

Topic closed. 1111 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Stack47.

Page 19 of 75
4.215
PrintE-mailLink
fja's avatar - gnome1

United States
Member #91
January 19, 2002
11924 Posts
Offline
Posted: October 29, 2008, 10:48 pm - IP Logged

Thanks...so basically given that scenario in January, not only would I hit for 61 mil but I would have hit the 5+0 on 16 lines. then the 4+1 on 5 lines and so on and so on,,,,is that correct?

"Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

    Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
    CT
    United States
    Member #61398
    May 21, 2008
    781 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: October 29, 2008, 11:11 pm - IP Logged

    Errr, well you would have to play 84,084 lines for each draw to guarantee that.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19816 Posts
      Online
      Posted: October 29, 2008, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

      RJ, what are your 'gaps' and 'ranges' measurements of?

      gaps are the different between the numbers after sorted in a combination and range is the difference between the lowest and highest numbers in a combination +1.

      TUE 10/28/08 - 06 39 45 46 48  +36  have gaps of 33, 6, 1, 2 and a range of  43

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #8899
        November 21, 2004
        428 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: October 30, 2008, 10:03 am - IP Logged

        I was a little premature on my first number selection. After reviewing my previous numbers, I changed a few. Here are the 23 numbers:

        1. 05-07-09-22-27  +2
        2. 02-07-16-31-45  +4
        3. 07-32-45-48-51  +5
        4. 07-24-38-44-46  +7
        5. 07-12-13-36-43  +10
        6. 07-25-30-31-42  +39
        7. 02-05-13-16-24  +11
        8. 05-12-25-46-51  +38
        9. 05-31-38-43-48  +13
        10. 05-13-24-30-32  +15
        11. 05-36-42-44-45  +37
        12. 02-16-32-48-51  +35
        13. 02-16-27-36-46 +30
        14. 02-12-16-38-42  +22
        15. 02-09-16-22-43  +21
        16. 02-16-25-30-44  +15
        17. 09-13-31-44-51  +10
        18. 24-27-42-43-51  +15
        19. 22-30-36-38-51  +39
        20. 13-22-42-46-48  +21
        21. 12-27-30-44-48  +35
        22. 09-24-25-36-48  +7
        23. 09-30-43-45-46  +10
        24. 27-31-32-36-46  +38
        25. 09-12-32-38-42  +2
        26. 12-22-24-31-45  +4
        27. 13-25-27-38-45  +15
        28. 22-25-32-43-44  +13

          Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
          CT
          United States
          Member #61398
          May 21, 2008
          781 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: October 30, 2008, 10:25 am - IP Logged

          gaps are the different between the numbers after sorted in a combination and range is the difference between the lowest and highest numbers in a combination +1.

          TUE 10/28/08 - 06 39 45 46 48  +36  have gaps of 33, 6, 1, 2 and a range of  43

          Thanks RJ.  I have been on a filter-kick lately, just curious.  Cheers

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19816 Posts
            Online
            Posted: October 30, 2008, 11:01 am - IP Logged

            When I set parameters, they are really acting as filters since combinations outside those parameters are rejected. 

            I have checked previous winning combinations using similar parameters and while 80% of those combinations would pass any one parameter when several were used together as little as 50% or less of those combinations would pass.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              time*treat's avatar - radar

              United States
              Member #13130
              March 30, 2005
              2171 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: October 30, 2008, 7:53 pm - IP Logged

              FRI 09/12/08   01 12 14 25 35  +38
              ------------------------------------
                  09/09/08   22 23 28 49 52   +02
                  09/05/08   01 06 15 27 46   +39
                  09/02/08   14 23 43 44 54   +39
                  08/29/08   21 25 26 50 51   +22
                  08/26/08   06 16 24 34 36   +30
                  08/22/08   12 13 15 41 42   +37
                  08/19/08   09 18 19 26 40   +38
                  08/15/08   08 23 29 30 53   +07
                  08/12/08   02 07 23 38 40   +40
                  08/08/08   11 17 28 32 50   +33
                  08/05/08   09 21 36 38 55   +13
                  08/01/08   09 13 17 18 56   +02
                  07/29/08   11 13 20 30 42   +03
                  07/25/08   02 16 19 35 52   +17

              A few weeks ago, the winning numbers had what I call a clean look-back in which all the winning numbers had only hit once until all 5 had hit.  In the last 300 drawings there has been 16 (5%) such combinations.  When comparing that format with all 300 drawings, such a combination could have matched 3 or better 48% of the times.  The combinations falling within this classification are few and limited.  For this Friday drawing, I will pick 20 such combinations.

              At 5%, you're looking at about 1 in 20 drawings or 1 drawing every ten weeks (2-and-a-half-months) for JP games. A bit of patience is required to give the method time to play itself out.

              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19816 Posts
                Online
                Posted: October 30, 2008, 9:38 pm - IP Logged

                At 5%, you're looking at about 1 in 20 drawings or 1 drawing every ten weeks (2-and-a-half-months) for JP games. A bit of patience is required to give the method time to play itself out.

                If I could define another group the same size or smaller that had 3  winning numbers or more 48% of the time and had all five winning numbers 5% of the time I might use it instead.   Anyone with a better idea is welcome to post it and pick 20 lines to demonstrate how well it works.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                  CT
                  United States
                  Member #61398
                  May 21, 2008
                  781 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: October 30, 2008, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

                  If I could define another group the same size or smaller that had 3  winning numbers or more 48% of the time and had all five winning numbers 5% of the time I might use it instead.   Anyone with a better idea is welcome to post it and pick 20 lines to demonstrate how well it works.

                  RJ, I just modified my program a bit to check pool sizes of the maximum through the history (instead of manually putting in 349, or 300, 255, etc). This allowed me to print out some more statistics on systems used with a 'max' pool size for the entire run.

                  Here are some of my recent WB methods for MM and their statistics (starting with draw 3 and looking forward, 348 tested):

                  FOLLOWERS (36 number group):

                  3 or better of the winning numbers: 76.45% (266 of 348)

                  All 5 winning numbers: 8.62% (30 of 348)

                  FOLLOWERS (32 number group):

                  3 or better of the winning numbers: 63.51% (221 of 348)

                  All 5 winning numbers: 4.31% (15 of 348)

                  FOLLOWERS (28 number group): 

                  3 or better of the winning numbers: 48.56% (169 of 348)

                  All 5 winning numbers: 2.01% (7 of 348) 

                  DUE/Top Ranks - (32 number group): 

                  3 or better of the winning numbers: 57.76% (201 of 348)

                  All 5 winning numbers: 5.17% (18 of 348)

                  DUE/Top Ranks - (28 number group): 

                  3 or better of the winning numbers: 48.28% (168 of 348)

                  All 5 winning numbers: 3.45% (12 of 348) 

                  DUE - (32 number group): 

                  3 or better of the winning numbers: 58.33% (203 of 348)

                  All 5 winning numbers: 5.75% (20 of 348)

                  DUE - (28 number group): 

                  3 or better of the winning numbers: 45.98% (160 of 348)

                  All 5 winning numbers: 3.74% (13 of 348)

                   

                  Looks like I am going to stick with followers, but I might reduce my 36 number group to a 32 number group and work on the filtering I mentioned a few posts back.

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19816 Posts
                    Online
                    Posted: October 31, 2008, 12:25 am - IP Logged

                    Stew,

                    How do you define followers and due numbers?  And how do you reduce the size of the groups?

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      DISCOTIKI's avatar - driver
                      New Member
                      YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO
                      United States
                      Member #64148
                      August 20, 2008
                      26 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: October 31, 2008, 10:22 am - IP Logged

                      My Picks for tonight match alot of Stews..

                      30-51-52-54-56   9

                      04-38-43-52-54   22

                      Good Luck  and Happy Halloween Cheers

                        Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                        CT
                        United States
                        Member #61398
                        May 21, 2008
                        781 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: October 31, 2008, 12:10 pm - IP Logged

                        Stew,

                        How do you define followers and due numbers?  And how do you reduce the size of the groups?

                        Reducing the size of the groups is the easier part of my algorithm so I'll give that first.  All of my methods (due, followers, etc) put the balls in a rank from greatest to least, depending on the algorithm chosen.  Then I simply pick how many balls I would like to play (or display/report) and I take the top ranked balls up to that number.

                        Followers:

                        I set up an array 56x56 (BALL x FOLLOWER) and each indexes represents a different ball combinations. I loop through all of the past draws and for each ball I increment positions in the array for that ball corresponding with each 5 WB's in the following draw.  Therefor each drawing I loop through I will be adding the 5 WB's from the following draw 5 times each, once for each position in the current draw. 

                        i.e., if the draw I am looking at is 1-2-3-4-5 and the following draw was 6-7-8-9-10, I increment 6 as a follower of 1, 6 as a follower of 2, 6 as a follower of 3, 6 as a follower of 4 and 6 as a follower of 5.  Balls of 2,3,4,5 are incremented for 6,7,8,9,10 as well.

                        After all the past calculation is done and I am looking to pick followers for the upcoming draw, the system adds 5 rows in the array together (each row corresponding to each WB from the most recent draw) and totals the amount.  i.e. if the most recent draw was 1-2-3-4-5, and the ball #11 has followed ball #1 15 times, and followed #2 20 times, and followed #3,4,5 10 times each, the value for 11 is set to 65.  All values are calculated and ordered from greatest to least, and I choose off the top how many I am looking for.  I have had a few different algorithms for followers but this seems to be the most profitable.

                        Due:

                        My due alrogithm is not rediculously complex.  I run a 'for' loop for 1 to the maximum balls (56 in this case) and it loops back through all of the draw history analyzing hits.  I take the total amount of hits for each ball, and divide the total draws by that number.  Then I subtract the count of draws back where the ball in question hit last and that gives the due rank.

                        i.e. if ball #25 has hit 13 times in the past 350 draws, it has an average of 26.9 draws (round to 27).  If the last hit for ball #25 was 21 draws ago it has a due value of 27 - 21 = 6 (-1 because we want the difference between draws to equal one less than the average) = 5.  You can think of it such as, if a ball averages 10 draws and hit 9 draws ago, it will be exactly 'due' for the 10th (next) draw.

                        I take the absolute value of the due rank since some balls will be overdue, giving them a negative value. I consider positive and due values equally likely (+4 = -4 for example). After these due ranks are calculated I order the balls from most due (0 rank) to least due (higher ranks) and pick the top # of balls that I would like to play.

                        Due (Top Ranks):

                        Here is where I take the due algorithm one step further.  I noticed that my due ranking system did decent, but often numbers hit in consistent ranges of my rankings which might not be always at the top.  There seemed to be groupings in the middle and bottom of the due ranks, so I implemented this.  What this algorithm does is loops back through the entire history first completing the due rank. Then it analyzes where the balls that were drawn would have been in the due rankings.  It keeps track of which rank has hit over the entire history and suggests balls that are calculated in the top rated due ranks.

                        For instance, according to my 'due' and 'due ranks' algorithm, the due ranking order for MM is currently:

                        51,54,17,41,7,20,36,45,12,14,16,23,29,5,25,26,49,52,53,2,19....

                        This means that most often balls hit that I have ranked in the 51 position based on due.  Last draw is no exception, on 10/28 balls 6,39,45,46,48 were ranked #31, #7, #51, #20 and #19.  51 and 7 were both in the top 5 for rank hits.  However, this method is a little more profitable in Powerball than it is in Mega Millions, and it is the method we are using for our Powerball pool.  Followers seems to have higher percentages for MM for the time being.

                        Hopefully this makes sense!!

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
                          19816 Posts
                          Online
                          Posted: October 31, 2008, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

                          Thanks Stew for explaining those terms.

                          Your due algorithm sounds similar to a routine I have in my program in which I use colors to denote cold(due), normal and hot numbers. 

                          I take the winning numbers, add up their number of hits over a certain period of previous drawings, calculated their average or median drawings per hit for that period of time and color them accordingly:
                          0 = blue
                          1 = green
                          2 = red
                          3 or more = yellow
                          I never found a period of time where one color dominated enough to go with numbers in a particular category.

                          For example I looked at the last 50 drawings and used a 200 drawings history to calculate their average hit per drawings.
                          87 numbers = blue
                          90 numbers = green
                          54 numbers = red
                          19 numbers = yellow
                          Blue and green were the dominate colors in those fifty drawings. The blue and green colored numbers for tonight drawings are:01 03 04 05 07 08 09 10 11 12 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 37 38 40 43 44 45 47 49 50 51 53 54 55 56   

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            fja's avatar - gnome1

                            United States
                            Member #91
                            January 19, 2002
                            11924 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: October 31, 2008, 8:28 pm - IP Logged
                            01-04-20-42-48+42
                            01-06-09-46-56+24
                            01-08-11-32-55+12
                            01-10-39-50-51+25
                            01-17-18-28-37+09
                            03-06-28-32-51+15
                            03-08-20-50-56+05
                            03-09-18-39-48+11
                            04-06-37-45-50+41
                            04-08-09-28-43+46
                            04-18-51-55-56+13
                            06-08-17-39-42+40
                            06-10-43-48-55+30
                            08-10-18-45-46+02
                            08-34-37-48-51+37
                            09-10-20-32-37+16
                            09-17-34-50-55+21
                            11-28-46-48-50+35
                            17-20-43-46-51+18
                            18-32-42-43-50+36

                             

                            Good Luck!!

                            "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
                              19816 Posts
                              Online
                              Posted: October 31, 2008, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

                                1. 05 27 41 46 52 +17
                                2. 09 19 34 36 49 +30
                                3. 07 28 31 33 43 +40
                                4. 01 22 30 38 44 +39
                                5. 18 29 40 50 54 +01
                                6. 06 19 30 33 51 +41
                                7. 02 13 33 34 49 +22
                                8. 02 27 34 38 44 +21
                                9. 13 27 33 38 44 +07
                               10. 06 19 44 47 51 +15
                               11. 05 19 31 32 43 +02
                               12. 07 19 32 44 47 +42
                               13. 15 28 42 45 47 +44
                               14. 21 29 40 45 50 +05
                               15. 06 13 16 27 47 +04
                               16. 02 25 30 33 43 +12
                               17. 07 16 32 34 47 +34
                               18. 02 27 32 38 51 +16
                               19. 07 25 38 43 49 +37
                               20. 06 16 31 35 41 +10

                              Good luck if you are playing MM tonight.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
                                Page 19 of 75