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Developing a winning MegaMillions System

Topic closed. 1111 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Stack47.

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JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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Posted: September 12, 2008, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

.."meant break this jp"

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: September 12, 2008, 8:21 pm - IP Logged

    Stew,

    Haven't picked my predictions yet.  While adding a feature to my program earlier in the week, I added a line of code that cause another feature to stop working properly.  I didn't notice it until today when I wanted to use it so I've spent all my time today trying to find it.  I will have some numbers to post in a little while.

    I see you used more bonus numbers in your picks tonight.  Good luck.

    RJOh

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: September 12, 2008, 10:49 pm - IP Logged

      These are my picks for tonight.   

      07 20 36 39 50 +11
      02 10 17 40 43 +05
      08 24 44 52 56 +13
      13 18 33 45 51 +01
      02 13 17 32 51 +41
      08 25 32 40 45 +15
      09 18 20 24 39 +42
      07 26 33 52 55 +26
      03 26 36 38 43 +44
      15 25 38 54 55 +36
      01 16 40 43 45 +10
      09 16 20 29 52 +12
      09 13 33 50 54 +35
      02 18 25 29 48 +38
      10 21 36 54 56 +21
      07 11 16 24 39 +40
      18 26 43 48 49 +04
      08 13 38 39 51 +17
      10 20 21 38 52 +07
      17 24 41 54 55 +37

      Good luck to anyone who plays tonight.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: September 12, 2008, 11:22 pm - IP Logged

        Tonight's winning numbers were: 01 12 14 25 35  +38

        07 20 36 39 50 +11
        02 10 17 40 43 +05
        08 24 44 52 56 +13
        13 18 33 45 51 +01
        02 13 17 32 51 +41
        08 25 32 40 45 +15
        09 18 20 24 39 +42
        07 26 33 52 55 +26
        03 26 36 38 43 +44
        15 25 38 54 55 +36
        01 16 40 43 45 +10
        09 16 20 29 52 +12
        09 13 33 50 54 +35
        02 18 25 29 48 +38
        10 21 36 54 56 +21
        07 11 16 24 39 +40
        18 26 43 48 49 +04
        08 13 38 39 51 +17
        10 20 21 38 52 +07
        17 24 41 54 55 +37

        A 1+1 match for $3 is the best I could do

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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          Posted: September 13, 2008, 9:34 am - IP Logged

          Hey guys..

          I notice some of you have numbers sectioned off in groups A =0-9 type of stuff.Have any of you considered breaking the groups down even further isolating odd/even and extending the alphanumericy?

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: September 13, 2008, 10:32 am - IP Logged

            Hey guys..

            I notice some of you have numbers sectioned off in groups A =0-9 type of stuff.Have any of you considered breaking the groups down even further isolating odd/even and extending the alphanumericy?

            I've never considered it, but it you have tried it and had success, it would be interesting to hear about it.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              fja's avatar - gnome1

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              Posted: September 13, 2008, 11:11 am - IP Logged
              Numbers1st2nd3rd4th5thtotals
              1--52534.2%45.5%            29
              6--101926.0%79.6%            26
              11--151317.8%1926.0%79.6%        39
                16--20  79.6%1216.4%912.3%45.5%11.4%33
                21--25  79.6%1520.5%1216.4%45.5%11.4%39
                26--30      811.0%1419.2%912.3%11.4%32
              31--35    45.5%912.3%811.0%22.7%23
              36--4022.7%34.1%1115.1%1317.8%34.1%32
              41--45    10.01912.3%1621.9%1317.8%39
              46--50        22.7%1317.8%1419.2%29
              51--56          0.0%68.2%3852.1%44
                       
              Total7373737373365

               

              You mean like this?

              "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields                      

                JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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                Posted: September 13, 2008, 11:24 am - IP Logged

                No fja....more like increments of 11

                A=1-3-5-7-9-11

                B=2-4-6-8-10

                C=13-15-17-19-21

                D=12-14-16-18-20-22

                E=23-25-27-29-31-33

                F=24-26-28-30-32

                G=35-37-39-41-43

                H=34-36-38-40-42-44

                I=45-47-49-51-53-55

                J=46-48-50-52-54-56...kinda like that..

                  Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                  CT
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                  Posted: September 13, 2008, 11:46 am - IP Logged

                  Tonight's winning numbers were: 01 12 14 25 35  +38

                  07 20 36 39 50 +11
                  02 10 17 40 43 +05
                  08 24 44 52 56 +13
                  13 18 33 45 51 +01
                  02 13 17 32 51 +41
                  08 25 32 40 45 +15
                  09 18 20 24 39 +42
                  07 26 33 52 55 +26
                  03 26 36 38 43 +44
                  15 25 38 54 55 +36
                  01 16 40 43 45 +10
                  09 16 20 29 52 +12
                  09 13 33 50 54 +35
                  02 18 25 29 48 +38
                  10 21 36 54 56 +21
                  07 11 16 24 39 +40
                  18 26 43 48 49 +04
                  08 13 38 39 51 +17
                  10 20 21 38 52 +07
                  17 24 41 54 55 +37

                  A 1+1 match for $3 is the best I could do

                  Not bad RJ, any money is good ;)

                  I went with 21 MB's and it still seemed to slip through. hmm.

                  1. 04-05-27-31-49 +45
                  2. 04-06-07-17-56 +24
                  3. 04-12-23-48-55 +9
                  4. 04-15-28-30-40 +18
                  5. 04-32-37-38-53 +41
                  6. 05-06-23-28-37 +15
                  7. 05-07-32-40-55 +25
                  8. 05-12-30-38-56 +35
                  9. 05-15-17-48-53 +12
                  10. 06-12-27-40-53 +29
                  11. 06-15-31-38-55 +4
                  12. 06-30-32-48-49 +5
                  13. 07-12-15-37-49 +14
                  14. 07-23-30-31-53 +21
                  15. 07-27-28-38-48 +22
                  16. 12-17-28-31-32 +7
                  17. 15-23-27-32-56 +8
                  18. 17-23-38-40-49 +10
                  19. 17-27-30-37-55 +44
                  20. 28-49-53-55-56 +32
                  21. 31-37-40-48-56 +36

                  Not a very good night for my picks, back to the drawing board.

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: September 13, 2008, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

                    When I first started this project I actually thought I had accumulated enough rules about past drawings behavior that I could come up with at least one match3 and the bonus number some where in 20 lines 75% of the time.  I obviously haven't come close to doing that.

                    I had read somewhere that most prediction software was based on one of two theories and both had proved to had merits.  One theory was based on frequencies, that is numbers that hit most are most likely to hit next.  The other theory was based on averages, that is over time all numbers approach an average amount of hits so numbers that hadn't hit in a while are constantly trying to reach that average.  I tried to develop software to analyze those theories and assign a value to all the numbers based on those theories and play the top 75% of them.

                    It may be time to abandon this project and go back to the drawing board.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
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                      Posted: September 13, 2008, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

                      I don't know if I would abandon it!  Lets do a little analysis here.

                      Looking back 279 drawings, this is the order of the numbers most frequent to least frequent (if my calculations are correct):

                      White Balls:

                      53,46,5,36,7,40,24,14,12,30,51,43,42,25,48,17,54,44,22,13,16,31,56,52,39,26,35

                      38,20,18,45,32,2,19,9,33,29,8,21,3,55,50,1,4,27,23,11,49,34,15,10,41,28,37,6

                      Mega Balls:

                      22,2,42,10,7,35,15,39,44,36,21,37,38,26,4,12,9,6,30,43,41,17,5,14

                      1,40,33,11,32,29,25,8,13,34,27,24,23,20,19,18,16,3,28,45,31,46

                      And the drawing was: 01-12-14-25-35, Mega Ball: 38

                      So the drawing was fairly all over the place. If we were to play 75% of the most and least frequent numbers, we would be playing 42 (56*.75).  That leaves us with the top 21 and bottom 21, which would look like so:

                      Top 21 most frequent: 53,46,5,36,7,40,24,14,12,30,51,43,42,25,48,17,54,44,22,13,16

                      Top 21 least frequent: 9,33,29,8,21,3,55,50,1,4,27,23,11,49,34,15,10,41,28,37,6

                      If we included the same method for mega balls, we would be playing 34 (34.5) of them, but we'll assume around 20 tickets.  That would have left us with:

                      Top 10 most frequent: 22,2,42,10,7,35,15,39,44,36

                      Top 10 least frequent: 23,20,19,18,16,3,28,45,31,46

                      Since the mega ball drawn was the 13th most frequent, we would have missed it while playing with this method.

                      Let me know if those numbers match yours RJ. Is this similar to how you set up your picks?

                      The method I like to use for picking Mega Millions & Powerball numbers are with 'due'. I use similar means, taking the most due and least due, which seems to encorporate alot of the most and least frequent numbers.

                      Numbers organized from most due to least due:

                      White Balls:

                      17,7,55,32,30,53,38,40,2,20,56,11,42,12,35,29,36,8,24,19,18,13,9,16,51,46,25,26

                      43,14,45,54,44,47,10,39,3,34,50,21,41,52,22,33,1,5,27,15,49,23,6,28,4,37,31,48

                      Mega Balls:

                      9,15,24,45,41,18,4,25,12,44,35,29,36,14,21,5,8,19,10,22,26,7,32,2

                      23,11,20,6,16,17,39,38,37,43,31,27,30,42,33,40,34,1,3,13,28,46

                      Note: I used a pool size of 266 for my picks, this is with a pool size of 279.  I use 266 because I am able to back check those with a few previous drawings, where the pool size of 279 can not be back checked because that is the entire size of my database. 

                      Playing 75% of the numbers (with 20 mega balls) would have resulted in:

                      White balls:

                      Top 21 due: 17,7,55,32,30,53,38,40,2,20,56,11,42,12,35,29,36,8,24,19,18

                      Bottom 21 due: 39,3,34,50,21,41,52,22,33,1,5,27,15,49,23,6,28,4,37,31,48

                      Mega balls:

                      Top 10 due: 9,15,24,45,41,18,4,25,12,44

                      Bottom 10 due: 30,42,33,40,34,1,3,13,28,46

                      Using top/bottom due vs. frequency methods here would have produced similar results, but we would have picked up one more white ball with the frequency method (4 out of 5).

                      We just need to refine some filtering methods, maybe with taking both methods into account.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: September 13, 2008, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

                        When I look back at MegaMillion drawings, I go back to /24/2005,the last matrix change which now includes 337 drawings.

                        (WHITE BALLS)   06/24/05 TO 09/12/08   337 RECORDS

                          53:  42   43:  35    9:  31   56:  30    3:  26   34:  23
                          14:  41   48:  35   16:  31   26:  29 8 19:  26   49:  23
                           5:  39   42:  34   17:  31   32:  29   23:  26    6:  22
                          25:  39 3 51:  34   18:  31   39:  29   29:  26   10:  22
                        1 46:  39   54:  34 5 22:  31    2:  28    4:  25   37:  22
                          36:  38   13:  33   31:  31 1:  27   28:  25 0 47:  18
                           7:  37   20:  33   44:  31   21:  27   33:  25   57:   0
                          12:  36   52:  33   50:  31   27:  27   15:  24   58:   0
                        2 24:  36 4 30:  32   35:  30   45:  27 9 41:  24   59:   0
                          40:  36    8:  31 6 38:  30   55:  27   11:  23   60:   0

                        (BONUS BALLS)   06/24/05 TO 09/12/08   337 RECORDS

                          22:  12   38:  10   41:   8   16:   6   18:   4   51:   0
                           2:  11    5:   9 6  6:   7 8 33:   6   19:   4   52:   0
                        7:  11 4 12:   9    8:   7   43:   6   24:   4   53:   0
                          10:  11   30:   9    9:   7   23:   5   27:   4   54:   0
                          36:  11   37:   9   17:   7   25:   5   28:   3   55:   0
                          42:  11   44:   9 7 20:   7   32:   5 0 31:   3   56:   0
                        2  4:  10 5  1:   8   26:   7   34:   5   47:   0   57:   0
                          15:  10   11:   8   29:   7 9 45:   5   48:   0   58:   0
                          21:  10   39:   8    3:   6   46:   5   49:   0   59:   0
                        3 35:  10   40:   8   14:   6   13:   4   50:   0   60:   0


                                              SUMS OF 55 TO 238
                          55: 2     85: 1    115: 8    145: 8    175: 10   205: 2
                        0 58: 0     88: 1    118: 9    148: 10   178: 11   208: 4
                          61: 0     91: 4    121: 6    151: 9    181: 5    211: 1
                          64: 1     94: 5   3124: 12  6154: 12   184: 6    214: 3
                          67: 0     97: 9    127: 6    157: 9   9187: 4    217: 0
                          70: 3   1100: 8    130: 12   160: 10   190: 9    220: 0
                          73: 2    103: 2   4133: 17  7163: 10   193: 6   0223: 1
                          76: 1    106: 7    136: 7    166: 9    196: 0    226: 0
                          79: 3    109: 9    139: 6    169: 8    199: 3    229: 0
                          82: 1   2112: 9   5542: 18  8872: 14   202: 1    232: 0
                                                                          +235: 1

                        I usually limit my picks to the top 70% of sums - 90-195

                        For MegaBall I also look at the repeat rates and include the top 30% with the top hits.

                                      REPEAT RATE FOR BONUS NUMBERS
                          11:  14   22:   6   45:   5   46:   4   59:   3   29:   1
                        1 12:   9    3:   5    4:   4   47:   4 9  5:   2   48:   1
                           1:   8 4 13:   5 6 17:   4   51:   4   10:   2   49:   1
                           2:   7   15:   5   23:   4 8 24:   3   34:   2   52:   1
                           6:   6   18:   5   25:   4   27:   3   37:   2 0 54:   1
                        2  7:   6   19:   5   31:   4   30:   3   39:   2    0:   0
                           8:   6   20:   5   33:   4   35:   3   40:   2   26:   0
                           9:   6 5 21:   5 7 36:   4   38:   3   43:   2   42:   0
                        3 14:   6   28:   5   41:   4   55:   3   53:   2   50:   0
                          16:   6   32:   5   44:   4   58:   3   56:   2   57:   0
                                                                           +60:   65

                         I also look the minimum previous draws that had all the winning numbers.

                           1      FRI 09/12/08   01 12 14 25 35    38
                        ______________________________________________
                           2        1 09/05/08   01 06 15 27 46    39
                            1 ----------------------------------------
                           3        2 09/02/08   14 23 43 44 54    39
                            2 ----------------------------------------
                           4        3 08/29/08   21 25 26 50 51    22
                            3 ----------------------------------------
                           6        4 08/22/08   12 13 15 41 42    37
                            4 ----------------------------------------
                          14        5 07/25/08   02 16 19 35 52    17
                            5 ----------------------------------------
                                1/ 2    2/ 3    3/ 4    4/ 6    5/14

                         Numbers in 70% of the winning combos have hit in the previous 28 drawings or less.

                                   5 NUMBERS
                           0: 0     10: 6   4 20: 12    30: 9     40: 1     50: 2
                           1: 0     11: 4     21: 11  8 31: 8     41: 8     51: 0
                           2: 0   1 12: 9     22: 6     32: 9     42: 1     52: 1
                           3: 0     13: 6   5 23: 12    33: 3     43: 2     53: 0
                        0  4: 2     14: 11    24: 12    34: 4     44: 0     54: 0
                           5: 1   2 15: 13    25: 11    35: 4     45: 1   0 55: 1
                           6: 4     16: 10  6 26: 15    36: 4     46: 1     56: 0
                           7: 2   3 17: 12    27: 15  9 37: 6     47: 0     57: 0
                           8: 5     18: 16  7 28: 10    38: 4     48: 2     58: 0
                           9: 5     19: 7     29: 4     39: 2     49: 2     59: 0
                                                                           +60: 3

                         I look at number distribution patterns, this is one of severals.

                          A = 1-19   B = 20-38   C = 39-56
                              PATTERN            %       TOTAL %

                           1. AABBC = 52         15        15
                           2. ABBCC = 45         13        28
                           3. AABCC = 43         12        41
                           4. ABCCC = 33         9         51
                           5. AAABC = 25         7         58
                           6. ABBBC = 23         6         65
                           7. AACCC = 18         5         70
                           8. AABBB = 16         4         75
                           9. AAACC = 14         4         79
                          10. BBBCC = 13         3         83
                          11. AAABB = 11         3         86
                          12. BBCCC = 10         2         89
                          13. AAAAB =  8         2         92
                          14. ABBBB =  8         2         94
                          15. BCCCC =  6         1         96
                          16. BBBBC =  5         1         97
                          17. AAAAC =  3         0         98
                          18. ACCCC =  3         0         99
                          19. CCCCC =  1         0         100

                        I also look at numbers by positions, odd/even and etc.  I don't use all the information but try to decides which ones correlate with the outcomes most often.  I won't abandon the project completely, just stop posting expected results until they are include better matches.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          bobby623's avatar - abstract
                          San Angelo, Texas
                          United States
                          Member #1097
                          January 31, 2003
                          1405 Posts
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                          Posted: September 13, 2008, 7:47 pm - IP Logged

                          RJOH

                          I've been following your post on developing a winning system for MegaMillions.

                          For a long time, I spent hours and no small sum of money trying to use number analysis to pick winning numbers.
                          It never worked. I had a few small wins. Just a lot of frustration.

                          I finally decided that it wasn't worth the effort. Besides, I didn't have the money needed to wheel a large
                          set of numbers.

                          It seemed to me that the best approach would be to design a substiture lottery number generating plan. I would
                          use the winning numbers to trigger other actions, and use the variations to make my choices.

                          I started with alphanumeric substitution and then eventually to a system I call Gap Strategy.

                          As a result, I have several interelated, systematic, logical data streams and inventories that assist the guesswork at several
                          levels.

                          Of course, number totals and distributions are still a part of the scheme, but I'm not tied to them.

                          I'm sure you have seen and read some of the Gap Strategy posts I've filed over the past 2 years.

                          Take a closer look. You might find something useful. If not, you might use the information to develop your own
                          substitute system.

                          I'm convinced winning requires more than one approach. Gap strategy is working well for me, but, no jackpots - yet.

                          See my posts 'A new way to play Powerball' for more detailed information.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19904 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 13, 2008, 11:58 pm - IP Logged

                            Bobby,

                            I read your post on "A new way to play Powerball".  Stew12 also mentioned he was trying something different with Powerball and pumpi76 mentioned "Tntea's schooling for Powerball" so there's no shortage of ideas about how to play the PB game but it's not played in Ohio . I think MM and PB are similar games but each is unique so I'm trying to put together a strategy for playing MM based on my observations of the game over the years.   Thanks for your suggestions and good luck on your efforts to win a PB jackpot.

                            RJOh 

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                              CT
                              United States
                              Member #61398
                              May 21, 2008
                              781 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 14, 2008, 12:16 am - IP Logged

                              Great stats above RJ.

                              I tend to not use sums or mathematical evaluations on the ball numbers very often, I seem to have better luck treating the numbers on the balls more as labels, and not as if they actually hold a mathematical value.  I have also worked with some letter (range) substitutions, but I can never get it so I do not have to expand the substititions back into the same number of options as I started with.  I may put more effort into number ranges, since it is part of how we pick balls for PB (just not as complex yet).

                              Tonight we managed to get 4 out of 5 balls in our 30 ball selection for our Powerball pool.  We picked up a 3+0 for $7, but had no more luck than that.  3 numbers were in the top 15 due (looking back 300 drawings, just shy of the matrix change): 29,43,51. 17 was ranked 4th due from the bottom, so we picked that one up as well.  7 was right in the middle at 30th due, we missed that one since we use the ranges 1-15 and 41-55.  PB 38 was 10th due, so we missed that one since we use the ranges 14-29 (16 tickets) with a pool size of 200 (seems like a very active pool size).  We might expand the PB picks to 24 numbers when we play 49 tickets, and play them roughly twice each.

                                 
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