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Random Lottery..Random Stock Market

Topic closed. 101 replies. Last post 8 years ago by lotterybraker.

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lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
mississippi
United States
Member #34478
March 3, 2006
5903 Posts
Offline
Posted: November 26, 2008, 9:35 pm - IP Logged

In case any of you have wondered where I have been at this past month or so I have been GLUED TO CNBC since the Finacial Crisis hit..so I thought ..maybe..just maybe Random will work on the Stock Market as well..so I have been tinkering with it..so far..this is where I sit at on CNBC Million Dollar Challenge..nothing to brag about but heh..since I have a grand total of about 5 weeks knowledge concerning the stock Market..I think this is pretty good..now..I wish I knew how to short the market and I would not have gotten burned last week on those 2 down days..I am NOW SURE RANDOM will work on the Market as well so I am going to design a random field to spank their butt...

 

$1.053M
Total Portfolio Value*
Top 37.3%
Game Rank*
168652nd
Game Rank Position*
55,748 (5.6%)
Gain/Loss, Intraday
114,590 (12.2%)
Gain/Loss, Weekly*
53,393 (5.3%)
Gain/Loss, Overall*
*As of 11/26/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

    lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
    mississippi
    United States
    Member #34478
    March 3, 2006
    5903 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: November 26, 2008, 9:40 pm - IP Logged

    oh yeah..if you know how to short the market at CNBC MILLION DOLLAR CHALLENGE..please post instructions because I havent found them or figured out how to do it..okie dokie..

    "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

      four4me's avatar - gate1
      MD
      United States
      Member #1701
      June 18, 2003
      8360 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: November 26, 2008, 9:50 pm - IP Logged
      1.073M
      Total Portfolio Value*
      Top 30.6%
      Game Rank*
      138370th
      Game Rank Position*
      75,956 (7.6%)
      Gain/Loss, Intraday
      166,056 (18.3%)
      Gain/Loss, Weekly*
      73,348 (7.3%)
      Gain/Loss, Overall*
      *As of 11/26/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.
      my portfolio took a beating also but i left it alone and it grew.

      Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                     I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
        lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
        mississippi
        United States
        Member #34478
        March 3, 2006
        5903 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: November 26, 2008, 9:51 pm - IP Logged

        WTG!!!! FOUR4ME...I got some catching up to do..hahahaha

        "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

          lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
          mississippi
          United States
          Member #34478
          March 3, 2006
          5903 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: November 26, 2008, 9:55 pm - IP Logged

          I had 25 % on 4 stocks today...alcoa..at and t...jp morgan..and walmart..I am tinkering with some different runs ..trying to pick just 4 stocks at a time to get the biggest bang for my cnbc bucks..hahaha

          "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

            LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
            Tx
            United States
            Member #4570
            May 4, 2004
            5180 Posts
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            Posted: November 26, 2008, 11:58 pm - IP Logged

            I don't knowanything at all about stocks, but let us try to talk about prediction in general.

            You don't have to know the "Mechanics-Make-Up" of a "Game" to attempt prediction, but your predictions might be more accurate-right if you do know the mechanics-make-up of the particular game, in your case it could be called the "Stock(s) Game".

            Let us look at cars on the street, we know that there are many colors of cars, but we don't know how many colors and the names of all those colors, we also know that there are many brands or makes of cars.

            So if a white car just came by, we don't expect the very next car to come by to also be white, it can be, but with so many colors, What are the chances?

            If a Chevy just came by, we also don't expect another Chevy to be the very next car to come by, What are the chances of that?

            Of course a white car can come again next and a Chevy can also be next, but no very likely for either.

            Now if the white car was a Chevy, it is for sure not very likley the the next car to come by will also be a white Chevy, What are the chances?

            Now if a white Chevy Impala just came by, another white Chevy Impala would be very much unlikely to be the next car to come by, Right?

            So the first filter is white  cars, the next filter is Chevy cars, the last filter is white chevys.

            But the white Chevy Impala that came by was a 1966 year.

            So we have another filter, What are the chances of the next car to come by to also be any 1966 year make?

            Specially because it is such an old year.

            -----

            And we don't even have all the needed stats in relation to colors, kinds or brands and years of make, but we can tell due to what little we know about random chance and common sense.

            ------

            If a yellow 2003 Ford truck came by and then a a red 1999 honda car came by next, we don't expect another yellow 2003 Ford truck to come by followed by another red 1999 honda car, as a matter of fact we don't expect either of those to to come by again next nor any time soon.

            We don't even expect any yellow car nor truck to come by next folowed by any red car or truck.

            We don't expect any 2003 car or truck to come by next followed by any 1999 car or truck.

            Etc.

            That is not quite prediction, but it is a sort of prediction, those are just an example, a beginning on making a prediction filters system for cars in that kind of situation, as I said, we don't even have all the needed stats for proper prediction.

            Besides just as one particular number can't often at all be predicted so can not one  particular kind of car with all its many characteristics be predicted,  we could instead predict a portion of the total amount of cars and hope that the next car to come by is among them, according to the filters' stats.

            That is in a way what we do with lottery prediction.

            We need to know exactly what is what we want to predict and in which way we want to do it or in which bway it is or might be best.

            We need many characteristics related to that which we want to predict.

            I can't talk about stocks as I know nothing about them at all.

            For possible failure of cars we need to know all the related stats, stats = filters = possible prediction, Which cars have the most chance of particular or general motor failures this year?, out of all the total cars on the street now, or out of a particular chosen pool of cars.

            You know, some particular kind of prediction, Which particular group of people of those who are 50 to 70 years of age are the most likely to die of a hearth attack?

            White males,  white females, black males, black females, other males, other females?

            Filter? Maybe: White, Black, Other, Males, Females, their particular past stats are needed.

            ----------

              four4me's avatar - gate1
              MD
              United States
              Member #1701
              June 18, 2003
              8360 Posts
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              Posted: November 27, 2008, 1:16 am - IP Logged

              Lantern in the 60's and 70's i could tell almost every US made car apart from one another, what the factory colors were and type of engines they had from the factory unless it was special ordered.

              it was a game we played as kids.

              Now as for what lotterybraker and i are referring to is a game a challenge of sorts that CNBC is running on the web. They give you a million fictitious bucks and up to 5 portfolio's to work with. They have all the gaming info on their site and tutorials for dealing with stocks or currencies. 

              I don't have the savvy to win the contest but its a challenge to get to the top 100 to 1000 buying and selling stocks that for all intensive purpose are almost like the real thing. If i ever have the capital to do it for real i will have some in-site as to what to do to try and make my money make money even in the worst of times.

              Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                             I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                Chief Bottle Washer
                New Jersey
                United States
                Member #1
                May 31, 2000
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                Online
                Posted: November 27, 2008, 8:16 am - IP Logged

                <Moved to Gaming forum>

                Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

                  four4me's avatar - gate1
                  MD
                  United States
                  Member #1701
                  June 18, 2003
                  8360 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: December 1, 2008, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

                  Stock markets taking a beating today. I knew i should have sold all my stock in the game last Friday but hesitated thinking this week would start off better. Thought wrong.

                  Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                                 I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                    lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
                    mississippi
                    United States
                    Member #34478
                    March 3, 2006
                    5903 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: December 2, 2008, 9:09 am - IP Logged

                    Heh Four...I moved up in the ranks after yesterday..No offence to you..but I was hopeing that the market beat down some of the leaders December 1st..and looks like it got some of them because I moved up in position again..those 2 very bad days in the first week of the contest beat me down since I dont know how to short the market yet..I am trying to call some investment places to get some advice on how to do that..hahaha

                     

                    $1.050M
                    Total Portfolio Value*
                    Top 23.8%
                    Game Rank*
                    111075th
                    Game Rank Position*
                    0 (0.0%)
                    Gain/Loss, Intraday
                    0 (0.0%)
                    Gain/Loss, Weekly*
                    49,824 (5.0%)
                    Gain/Loss, Overall*
                    *As of 12/1/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

                    "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

                      four4me's avatar - gate1
                      MD
                      United States
                      Member #1701
                      June 18, 2003
                      8360 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: December 2, 2008, 11:29 am - IP Logged
                      yes you did pretty good this is mine for Monday dec 1
                      today my be a better day.
                      keep up the good work
                       
                       
                      $1.042M
                      Total Portfolio Value*
                      Top 26.0%
                      Game Rank*
                      121286th
                      Game Rank Position*
                      -10,463 (-1.0%)
                      Gain/Loss, Intraday
                      0 (0.0%)
                      Gain/Loss, Weekly*
                      41,886 (4.2%)
                      Gain/Loss, Overall*

                      Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                                     I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                        four4me's avatar - gate1
                        MD
                        United States
                        Member #1701
                        June 18, 2003
                        8360 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: December 3, 2008, 2:19 pm - IP Logged

                        bounced back yesterday.

                        $1.091M
                        Total Portfolio Value*
                        Top 21.0%
                        Game Rank*
                        99143rd
                        Game Rank Position*
                        -38,386 (-3.5%)
                        Gain/Loss, Intraday
                        736 (0.1%)
                        Gain/Loss, Weekly*
                        91,336 (9.1%)
                        Gain/Loss, Overall*
                        *As of 12/2/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.
                        Was doing great this morning ---- now not looking so good.
                        I chose to let it ride.

                        Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                                       I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                          lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
                          mississippi
                          United States
                          Member #34478
                          March 3, 2006
                          5903 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: December 4, 2008, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

                          Nice Job Four..I got Lucky today..all I ran was 25 % of my PORTfolio on walmart today and I got lucky..it was just one of the few stocks in the Dow that closed up..

                           

                          $1.096M
                          Total Portfolio Value*
                          Top 20.2%
                          Game Rank*
                          97338th
                          Game Rank Position*
                          12,000 (1.1%)
                          Gain/Loss, Intraday
                          30,708 (2.9%)
                          Gain/Loss, Weekly*
                          96,100 (9.6%)
                          Gain/Loss, Overall*
                          *As of 12/4/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

                          "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

                            four4me's avatar - gate1
                            MD
                            United States
                            Member #1701
                            June 18, 2003
                            8360 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 4, 2008, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

                            Congrats.

                            I'm on a roller coaster ride up down, up down, going back-wards again LOL but I'm right on your heals LOL

                            A portfolio with no stocks and just bonus point bucks is higher in value and rank than ours. Aside from that there are top players who have approached the 3 million dollar mark.

                             

                            $1.091M
                            Total Portfolio Value*
                            Top 21.3%
                            Game Rank*
                            102243rd
                            Game Rank Position*
                            -4,601 (-0.4%)
                            Gain/Loss, Intraday
                            189 (0.0%)
                            Gain/Loss, Weekly*
                            90,788 (9.1%)
                            Gain/Loss, Overall*
                            *As of 12/4/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

                            Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                                           I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                              lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
                              mississippi
                              United States
                              Member #34478
                              March 3, 2006
                              5903 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 4, 2008, 9:47 pm - IP Logged

                              yeah..I know I will never catch up with them..that very fist week of the contest I got beat down big time on those 2 bad days in a row..so I doubt I will catch up with them  I am just having fun trying to learn a little bit..I do think after the first of the year I am going to get into the market at the bottom..maybe start with a 100 bucks or something just to get in and play..good luck on Friday..I am kinda scared to run anything tomorrow with the jobs report due in the morning..then again its friday I think every one would like to go home for the weekend on a high note so I look for the market to get a jump in the afternoon..that is my guess..hahaha..or should I say hope..hahaha

                              "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"