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lotterybraker

mississippi
United States
Member #34,477
March 3, 2006
6,070 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2008, 9:35 pm

In case any of you have wondered where I have been at this past month or so I have been GLUED TO CNBC since the Finacial Crisis hit..so I thought ..maybe..just maybe Random will work on the Stock Market as well..so I have been tinkering with it..so far..this is where I sit at on CNBC Million Dollar Challenge..nothing to brag about but heh..since I have a grand total of about 5 weeks knowledge concerning the stock Market..I think this is pretty good..now..I wish I knew how to short the market and I would not have gotten burned last week on those 2 down days..I am NOW SURE RANDOM will work on the Market as well so I am going to design a random field to spank their butt...

$1.053M

Total Portfolio Value*

Top 37.3%

Game Rank*

168652^nd

Game Rank Position*

55,748 (5.6%)

Gain/Loss, Intraday

114,590 (12.2%)

Gain/Loss, Weekly*

53,393 (5.3%)

Gain/Loss, Overall*

*As of 11/26/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"
lotterybraker

mississippi
United States
Member #34,477
March 3, 2006
6,070 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2008, 9:40 pm

oh yeah..if you know how to short the market at CNBC MILLION DOLLAR CHALLENGE..please post instructions because I havent found them or figured out how to do it..okie dokie..

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2008, 9:50 pm

1.073M
Total Portfolio Value*

Top 30.6%

Game Rank*

138370^th

Game Rank Position*

75,956 (7.6%)

Gain/Loss, Intraday

166,056 (18.3%)

Gain/Loss, Weekly*

73,348 (7.3%)

Gain/Loss, Overall*

*As of 11/26/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

my portfolio took a beating also but i left it alone and it grew.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
lotterybraker

mississippi
United States
Member #34,477
March 3, 2006
6,070 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2008, 9:51 pm

WTG!!!! FOUR4ME...I got some catching up to do..hahahaha

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"
lotterybraker

mississippi
United States
Member #34,477
March 3, 2006
6,070 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2008, 9:55 pm

I had 25 % on 4 stocks today...alcoa..at and t...jp morgan..and walmart..I am tinkering with some different runs ..trying to pick just 4 stocks at a time to get the biggest bang for my cnbc bucks..hahaha

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"
LANTERN

Tx
United States
Member #4,570
May 4, 2004
5,180 Posts
Offline

Nov 26, 2008, 11:58 pm

I don't knowanything at all about stocks, but let us try to talk about prediction in general.

You don't have to know the "Mechanics-Make-Up" of a "Game" to attempt prediction, but your predictions might be more accurate-right if you do know the mechanics-make-up of the particular game, in your case it could be called the "Stock(s) Game".

Let us look at cars on the street, we know that there are many colors of cars, but we don't know how many colors and the names of all those colors, we also know that there are many brands or makes of cars.

So if a white car just came by, we don't expect the very next car to come by to also be white, it can be, but with so many colors, What are the chances?

If a Chevy just came by, we also don't expect another Chevy to be the very next car to come by, What are the chances of that?

Of course a white car can come again next and a Chevy can also be next, but no very likely for either.

Now if the white car was a Chevy, it is for sure not very likley the the next car to come by will also be a white Chevy, What are the chances?

Now if a white Chevy Impala just came by, another white Chevy Impala would be very much unlikely to be the next car to come by, Right?

So the first filter is white cars, the next filter is Chevy cars, the last filter is white chevys.

But the white Chevy Impala that came by was a 1966 year.

So we have another filter, What are the chances of the next car to come by to also be any 1966 year make?

Specially because it is such an old year.

-----

And we don't even have all the needed stats in relation to colors, kinds or brands and years of make, but we can tell due to what little we know about random chance and common sense.

------

If a yellow 2003 Ford truck came by and then a a red 1999 honda car came by next, we don't expect another yellow 2003 Ford truck to come by followed by another red 1999 honda car, as a matter of fact we don't expect either of those to to come by again next nor any time soon.

We don't even expect any yellow car nor truck to come by next folowed by any red car or truck.

We don't expect any 2003 car or truck to come by next followed by any 1999 car or truck.

Etc.

That is not quite prediction, but it is a sort of prediction, those are just an example, a beginning on making a prediction filters system for cars in that kind of situation, as I said, we don't even have all the needed stats for proper prediction.

Besides just as one particular number can't often at all be predicted so can not one particular kind of car with all its many characteristics be predicted, we could instead predict a portion of the total amount of cars and hope that the next car to come by is among them, according to the filters' stats.

That is in a way what we do with lottery prediction.

We need to know exactly what is what we want to predict and in which way we want to do it or in which bway it is or might be best.

We need many characteristics related to that which we want to predict.

I can't talk about stocks as I know nothing about them at all.

For possible failure of cars we need to know all the related stats, stats = filters = possible prediction, Which cars have the most chance of particular or general motor failures this year?, out of all the total cars on the street now, or out of a particular chosen pool of cars.

You know, some particular kind of prediction, Which particular group of people of those who are 50 to 70 years of age are the most likely to die of a hearth attack?

White males, white females, black males, black females, other males, other females?

Filter? Maybe: White, Black, Other, Males, Females, their particular past stats are needed.

----------
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
Offline

Nov 27, 2008, 1:16 am

Lantern in the 60's and 70's i could tell almost every US made car apart from one another, what the factory colors were and type of engines they had from the factory unless it was special ordered.

it was a game we played as kids.

Now as for what lotterybraker and i are referring to is a game a challenge of sorts that CNBC is running on the web. They give you a million fictitious bucks and up to 5 portfolio's to work with. They have all the gaming info on their site and tutorials for dealing with stocks or currencies.

I don't have the savvy to win the contest but its a challenge to get to the top 100 to 1000 buying and selling stocks that for all intensive purpose are almost like the real thing. If i ever have the capital to do it for real i will have some in-site as to what to do to try and make my money make money even in the worst of times.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
Todd

50

Chief Bottle Washer

New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
27,936 Posts
Online

Nov 27, 2008, 8:16 am

<Moved to Gaming forum>
Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
Offline

Dec 1, 2008, 3:15 pm

Stock markets taking a beating today. I knew i should have sold all my stock in the game last Friday but hesitated thinking this week would start off better. Thought wrong.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
lotterybraker

mississippi
United States
Member #34,477
March 3, 2006
6,070 Posts
Offline

Dec 2, 2008, 9:09 am

Heh Four...I moved up in the ranks after yesterday..No offence to you..but I was hopeing that the market beat down some of the leaders December 1st..and looks like it got some of them because I moved up in position again..those 2 very bad days in the first week of the contest beat me down since I dont know how to short the market yet..I am trying to call some investment places to get some advice on how to do that..hahaha

$1.050M

Total Portfolio Value*

Top 23.8%

Game Rank*

111075^th

Game Rank Position*

0 (0.0%)

Gain/Loss, Intraday

0 (0.0%)

Gain/Loss, Weekly*

49,824 (5.0%)

Gain/Loss, Overall*

*As of 12/1/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
Offline

Dec 2, 2008, 11:29 am

yes you did pretty good this is mine for Monday dec 1

today my be a better day.

keep up the good work

$1.042M

Total Portfolio Value*

Top 26.0%

Game Rank*

121286^th

Game Rank Position*

-10,463 (-1.0%)

Gain/Loss, Intraday

0 (0.0%)

Gain/Loss, Weekly*

41,886 (4.2%)

Gain/Loss, Overall*

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
Offline

Dec 3, 2008, 2:19 pm

bounced back yesterday.

$1.091M

Total Portfolio Value*

Top 21.0%

Game Rank*

99143^rd

Game Rank Position*

-38,386 (-3.5%)

Gain/Loss, Intraday

736 (0.1%)

Gain/Loss, Weekly*

91,336 (9.1%)

Gain/Loss, Overall*

*As of 12/2/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

Was doing great this morning ---- now not looking so good.

I chose to let it ride.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
lotterybraker

mississippi
United States
Member #34,477
March 3, 2006
6,070 Posts
Offline

Dec 4, 2008, 7:08 pm

Nice Job Four..I got Lucky today..all I ran was 25 % of my PORTfolio on walmart today and I got lucky..it was just one of the few stocks in the Dow that closed up..

$1.096M

Total Portfolio Value*

Top 20.2%

Game Rank*

97338^th

Game Rank Position*

12,000 (1.1%)

Gain/Loss, Intraday

30,708 (2.9%)

Gain/Loss, Weekly*

96,100 (9.6%)

Gain/Loss, Overall*

*As of 12/4/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
Offline

Dec 4, 2008, 9:21 pm

Congrats.

I'm on a roller coaster ride up down, up down, going back-wards again LOL but I'm right on your heals LOL

A portfolio with no stocks and just bonus point bucks is higher in value and rank than ours. Aside from that there are top players who have approached the 3 million dollar mark.

$1.091M

Total Portfolio Value*

Top 21.3%

Game Rank*

102243^rd

Game Rank Position*

-4,601 (-0.4%)

Gain/Loss, Intraday

189 (0.0%)

Gain/Loss, Weekly*

90,788 (9.1%)

Gain/Loss, Overall*

*As of 12/4/08 at 4pm EST. Weekly and Overall Gain/Loss is calculated daily after market close.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
lotterybraker

mississippi
United States
Member #34,477
March 3, 2006
6,070 Posts
Offline

Dec 4, 2008, 9:47 pm

yeah..I know I will never catch up with them..that very fist week of the contest I got beat down big time on those 2 bad days in a row..so I doubt I will catch up with them I am just having fun trying to learn a little bit..I do think after the first of the year I am going to get into the market at the bottom..maybe start with a 100 bucks or something just to get in and play..good luck on Friday..I am kinda scared to run anything tomorrow with the jobs report due in the morning..then again its friday I think every one would like to go home for the weekend on a high note so I look for the market to get a jump in the afternoon..that is my guess..hahaha..or should I say hope..hahaha

"Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

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