Bulgarian lottery repeat probed

Sep 16, 2009, 2:34 pm (23 comments)

International

The Bulgarian authorities have ordered an investigation after the same six numbers were drawn in two consecutive rounds of the national lottery.

The numbers — 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 — were chosen by a machine live on television on 6 and 10 September.

An official of the Bulgarian lottery said manipulation was impossible.

A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million. But he said coincidences do happen.

Minister of Physical Education and Sport Svilen Neykov said the commission established to investigate would provide answers towards the end of the week.

The lottery organisers described it as a freak coincidence and pointed out that the numbers were drawn in a different order.

Nobody won the top prize in the first draw.

But a record 18 people guessed all six numbers in the 10 September draw.

Each will win 10,164 leva (5,196 euros; $7,643).

Thanks to erik braspenning for the tip.

BBC

Comments

time*treat's avatartime*treat

Interesting that people would bet on an exact repeat in a 6-ball drawing. Skeptical

CARBOB

Quote: Originally posted by time*treat on Sep 16, 2009

Interesting that people would bet on an exact repeat in a 6-ball drawing. Skeptical

I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

maringoman's avatarmaringoman

Fraud! Where the Interpol at??

savagegoose's avatarsavagegoose

hmm he said the odds of same 6 numbers 2 in a row. must be a real small pool , 6 out of 42 or something.

 

anyhow i bang on about playing last weeks numbers in the next weks draw, and do play em on our 7 from 45 game. no luck yet but this is encouraging news to me.

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on Sep 16, 2009

I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

I was looking at a few lotteries and playing the previous winning combination may be a better strategy than playing 1 2 3 4 5 6 which is a popular strategy in lotteries with a *small pool of numbers.  For example:

Playing the previous winning combination in the West Virgina Cash25 since it began on 02/06/90 would have matched 5/6 three times, 4/6 38 times and 3/6 316 times returning $1446 of the $2894 it cost to play.

Playing 01 02 03 04 05 06 in the West Virgina Cash25 since it began on 02/06/90 would have matched 5/6 one time, 4/6 47 times and 3/6 291 times returning $1011 of the $2894 it cost to play.

* I said small pool of numbers because in most lotteries the odds of a combination hitting once is usually more than 1/4M let alone hitting twice.

Prob988

Actually. if this was impossible, the probability of winning the lottery would be zero.

joshuakim

it's possible..

time*treat's avatartime*treat

Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on Sep 16, 2009

I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

... 18 out of a population of about 8 milion or so.. playing the same 6 of 42 numbers. Roll Eyes

If it's not a scam, some poor fortune cookie maker is gonna get it. LOL

What I'd like to know is where did that ''mathematician" get one in four million from? Crazy

Littleoldlady's avatarLittleoldlady

If they think that is possible I got some "real estate" on Mars to sell them.  the crooks (thieves) are at it again.  It is called manipulation.

jim695

"The numbers - 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 - were chosen by a machine live on television on 6 and 10 September."

The article doesn't state whether the "machine" is an RNG or a mechanical ball-type machine.

Does anyone know?

"An official of the Bulgarian lottery said manipulation was impossible."

This is the standard argument used by lotteries that draw their numbers electronically, and I'm also skeptical about the "mathematician's" figures. At minimum, the odds of identical numbers being drawn back-to-back would have to equal the 6-out-of-6 odds of the entire matrix, so even if it's just a 6/42 matrix like Colorado's Lotto, the odds against such an event would be at least 1 in 5,245,786.

rdgrnr's avatarrdgrnr

"An official of the Bulgarian lottery said manipulation was impossible".

So there, it's settled. Everyone knows you can't manipulate a computer and everyone knows there is no such thing as corrupt lottery officials. Case closed.

I believe that.

I also believe that the Brain Suckers from Mars are hiding under my bed.

four4me
The article doesn't say the numbers were draw in the same exact order out of the machine if one was used the balls could have been draw the same but came out of the machine in a different order.
 
 
 
As for 18 people playing the same numbers....   18 people out of how many thousands of players Is feasible since many people sometimes play the previous numbers which were drawn. And some of those players might have played the same numbers who didn't bother to check the previous results.
johnph77's avatarjohnph77

The mathematician's math is a bit off. In a 6/42 lottery there is a 1::5,245,786 chance of any six-number combination being drawn, including a duplicate set of the previous draw.

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on Sep 16, 2009

I find it very hard to believe that 18 people would play the same numbers from the previous draw. Something smells, wonder if these 18 people knew each other?

I think everybody here knows that 1,2,3,4,5,6 is an extremely popular combination, even though many other people think it's less likely to come up than other combinations. Plenty of people also think that the same numbers repeating again is less likely than any of the other combinations coming up, but whether it's 1,2,3,4,5,6, the numbers that came up in the last drawing, or any other combination you  choose, they've all got the same odds. Plenty of people play numbers that are cold, thinking that they're due. Others play numbers that are hot, thinking they're more likely to come up. Playing the most recent set of winning numbers is just one way of playing numbers you think are hot. I'm a bit surprised it was only 18. My guess is that if we had the data from MM and PB we'd be seeing hundreds of people playing the numbers from the previous drawing.

As for the odds, it's a 6/49 game, so the game odds are just under 1 in 14 million. I've got no idea where the 1 in 4 milion figure might have come from, but 1 in 14 million really isn't any more accurate just because those are the game odds. The drawings happen twice a week, and every drawing is another chance to repeat the numbers from the previous drawing. So far, there have been 3 drawings this month. There was a 1 in 14 million chance that the 2nd drawing would repeat the first, and there was a 1 in 14 million chance that the 3rd would repeat the second. That means there was a 1 in 7 million chance that either the 2nd or 3rd would repeat the previous one. With 104 drawings every year there are 103 chances to repeat the previous drawing, so the chances of this happening once in any given year is 103 in 14 million, or about 1 in 136,000.

Now factor in another 99 lotteries in other countries and states, and it becomes 1 in 1,360. Then consider that people would still be surprised if the results had been a repeat of any result from the past year. At that point it's a foregone conclusion that there are going to be repeats.

HaveABall's avatarHaveABall

Thank you KY Floyd, I don't know how you and the others get your statistics, but I appreciate being able to read them every now and then. 

I've never selected #s this way before.  Yet, you prove that no selection is outrageous!Lurking

Kaptainess's avatarKaptainess

Repeats are here, there and everywhere.  Have you noticed that repeats are strong lately?  I have and it hasn't peaked yet.  What it means I have no idea yet.  It could be a just a ''condition'' or leading up to something big.  Time will tell.  Seems like its global now, so whatever it really means we should know soon.

quenny3

I think lottery in general is a skem they play with the numbers

larry3100's avatarlarry3100

Some years ago I picked the same numbers from a previous draw,that won big-time.I got 3 numbers.It shows you that you never know what can happen when you play the lottery.Smiley

lottobrain's avatarlottobrain

I remember when I first moved to Maryland for job transfer back in 1988, I was playing lottery for the first time, having come from VA where lottery did not yet exist. I was near the DE state line, so I also played DE Lotto. I got my first computer at that time and my first lottery program.  The program had the stats for several state lotteries and while I was studying the draws for DE, I discovered that my printout showed the same numbers in about 2 weeks for a draw.  Back then I think the DE lotto was 6/30.  I thought I must have a mistake, so I went to a store that I knew had a record of all the draws and checked.  Sure enough, the numbers were correct and had repeated twice.  I also was subscribing to the "Lottery Players" magazine at the time and remember reading a story in there where the same lotto numbers had repeated about a year apart in NJ and that a woman had hit both times.  She continued to play her numbers even though she had won.  I believe that a lot of players play the same numbers back again in the 3 and 4 digit and lotto also.  In fact I've heard players calling out the same 3 digit number at night that had just hit during the day. I don't know if that is profitable in a long term basis, but then again I don't think triples are profitable in a long term basis, but players keep playing them day after day.

erik-b

Three of the six winning numbers also appeared once again in the following draw, on September 13th................

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by erik-b on Sep 18, 2009

Three of the six winning numbers also appeared once again in the following draw, on September 13th................

The Bulgarian authorities have ordered an investigation after the same six numbers were drawn in two consecutive rounds of the national lottery.

I guess an investigation over there have about the same effect as one does here.

caipiao

now  what about 3 draws in a row with the  same numbers.  odds of that?    The  one who said getting twice in a row is 1 in 5 million is a bit wrong , you have to multiply  1/5,000,000 and 1/5,000,000

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

Quote: Originally posted by caipiao on Sep 25, 2009

now  what about 3 draws in a row with the  same numbers.  odds of that?    The  one who said getting twice in a row is 1 in 5 million is a bit wrong , you have to multiply  1/5,000,000 and 1/5,000,000

You'd only multiply the odds if you wanted to know the odds of a specific number being drawn twice in a row. When the first drawing happens it's going to result in some number being drawn. The chance of that number being drawn again in the following drawing is then 1 in 5 million (or whatever the odds for the game are; this one is somewhere around 1 in 14 million).

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