Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 6, 2016, 7:06 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

Page 1 of 20
42
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 31, 2010, 2:35 am - IP Logged

The name of this Thread is the name of one of my favorite books, written by Nicholas Taleb.  If you read it, you will know why I chose This Title, in This Forum.  It's too late for me to elaborate further at this time.  Tomorrow is another day.

Harry C. Edwards, a reviewer at Amazon, had this to say:

"If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider."

--Highly recommended

--Jimmy

    Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

    United States
    Member #69169
    January 5, 2009
    2122 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 31, 2010, 2:45 am - IP Logged

    Hopefully i know where you are going here. And I have to say that lotteries are not completely rrandom. This is tthe reason why officials do many pre and post draws. With Tru randomness (word?) every number should show within in its curcumfrence of time but this doesnt happen much. Non the less, you are smarter than the lottery if you can classify numbers the proper way. It doesnt take me much to hit the pick 3 or 4 because certain numbers statitically are more likely to come out way more than others.

    "Many Strategies|One Game"

      Avatar

      Honduras
      Member #20982
      August 29, 2005
      4715 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 31, 2010, 3:22 am - IP Logged

      The name of this Thread is the name of one of my favorite books, written by Nicholas Taleb.  If you read it, you will know why I chose This Title, in This Forum.  It's too late for me to elaborate further at this time.  Tomorrow is another day.

      Harry C. Edwards, a reviewer at Amazon, had this to say:

      "If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider."

      --Highly recommended

      --Jimmy

      when i first began on the lottery, i thought, look at this all for some money...But i also KNEW that men gave up so easily, dont believe me...here is an example...Most women love a bodybuilder looking guy, yet most men dont look like bodybuilders, dont even attempt to try to create a bodybuilder lotto, SO MANY MEN IN THE WORLD, they rather talk about politics than create a Bodybuilder/fitness lotto and they SWEAR THEY LOVE WOMEN, plus i didnt have no choice, i wasnt going to do evil like sell cocaine just for money...it can happen to anyone, but i am saying i didnt have any option...Most men who do evil or rob banks never heard the term: LIFE EXPECTANCY, if i could die trying to rob a bank i will not live to enjoy the money....and my kids will leave to be drug addicts so i will not have any descendants so why live....if you know you can not support a woman DUDE escorts do exist...Not affraid to rob a bank but affraid to hire a woman for your needs...

      also i didnt felt like dumb playing lotteries because i knew that almost half of the USA plays lotteries so that makes me a dumber in 150 Million pool or whatever the number is....no offense but why is lottery in existence, which government was the dumbest to create it, not pick3 but the rest of lotteries....I could had learned the Thesaurus, maybe a small medical dictionary if i didnt have to chase the lottery, know portuguese maybe...REad so many books...

      one of these days an asteroid is going to hit one country and eliminate just that country or a country is going to get: sunk into the earth nucleus to teach the world a lesson that we dont live in heaven...just look at how much people spend in bridal ceremonies....why because: unicorns exist....

      The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨


       


       


       

       



        United States
        Member #81843
        October 31, 2009
        856 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 31, 2010, 3:44 am - IP Logged

        Systems seek the order that psuedo-randomness displays. Chaos seeks order,... looking forward to what you have to post on SYSTEMS and SYSTEMATIC play.

        DD

          Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

          United States
          Member #69169
          January 5, 2009
          2122 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 31, 2010, 4:58 am - IP Logged

          THe lottery is not psuedo random. Precisely the reason why they do many pre and post draws as I mentioned above. refer to the definition of pseudo random. This is exactly what is avoided to keep a precise flow of repeats and doubles (P3-4).  For every every draw there are atleast 8 pre +post draws, eliminating and removing combinations that should show 1:220/ 1:750. 

          "Many Strategies|One Game"

            Avatar

            Honduras
            Member #20982
            August 29, 2005
            4715 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 31, 2010, 11:41 am - IP Logged

            Systems seek the order that psuedo-randomness displays. Chaos seeks order,... looking forward to what you have to post on SYSTEMS and SYSTEMATIC play.

            DD

            :D

            lol....

            The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨


             


             


             

             



              United States
              Member #93947
              July 10, 2010
              2180 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 1, 2010, 12:42 am - IP Logged

              THe lottery is not psuedo random. Precisely the reason why they do many pre and post draws as I mentioned above. refer to the definition of pseudo random. This is exactly what is avoided to keep a precise flow of repeats and doubles (P3-4).  For every every draw there are atleast 8 pre +post draws, eliminating and removing combinations that should show 1:220/ 1:750. 

              I've mentioned in other posts that I don't participate in computerized lotteries, because there are too many oportunities for fraud.  If you're talking about pre and post draws of mechanical ball machines, I have no problem with that.  It may be necessary to insure the machines are functioning properly.  Regardless of pre/post draws, if the balls are not fraudulantly weighted, and the machines are reliable, when the senior citizen (in PA) is present, and the button is pushed, it's a random draw.  It doesn't matter if they made 100 dry runs before they rolled the cameras.


                United States
                Member #93947
                July 10, 2010
                2180 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: August 1, 2010, 12:46 am - IP Logged

                Systems seek the order that psuedo-randomness displays. Chaos seeks order,... looking forward to what you have to post on SYSTEMS and SYSTEMATIC play.

                DD

                If you're waiting for me to propose a system, don't hold your breath.  I might have some tips on how to spread your winnings over more numerous, smaller wins, rather than infrequent big wins.  But you probably already know how to do that.


                  United States
                  Member #93947
                  July 10, 2010
                  2180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: August 1, 2010, 12:53 am - IP Logged

                  My title post here was to lay groundwork with the book, but no one is commenting on it.  I'm surprized somebody didn't discover at Amazon that there are 53 1-star reviews and quote one of them.  Maybe it's because there are 214 5-Star reviews, and a lot of the nay sayers just seem to be jealous, or put off by their perception of him as arrogant.  Decide for yourself.


                    United States
                    Member #93947
                    July 10, 2010
                    2180 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: August 1, 2010, 2:55 am - IP Logged

                    Hopefully i know where you are going here. And I have to say that lotteries are not completely rrandom. This is tthe reason why officials do many pre and post draws. With Tru randomness (word?) every number should show within in its curcumfrence of time but this doesnt happen much. Non the less, you are smarter than the lottery if you can classify numbers the proper way. It doesnt take me much to hit the pick 3 or 4 because certain numbers statitically are more likely to come out way more than others.

                    "...every number should show within in its curcumfrence of time but this doesnt happen much."

                    Before you can decide whether numbers are showing within the limits you are specifying, you must have knowledge of the distribution of these numbers, either actual, or expected.  For example, after 1st reading your reply, I remembered the PA Cash 5 "Did my number ever hit before" link.  If you were to start entering sets of 5 from (1..43), you would soon tire looking for a hit.  The only sure way to get a hit in a reasonable period of time would be to retrieve a known winning set and plug it in.  Should this be a surprise?  Does this prove something is amiss?  No.  What it illustrates is how few of the possible sets of 43 numbers taken 5 at a time have been drawn thus far.  What's operating is the fact that there are 962,598 possible combinations of 43 numbers, 5 at a time.  If the lottery were to draw a different set every day, it will be 4617 before the last one is drawn!

                    Trying to prove a negative challenges you with a very "tough row to how!"

                      ranman17's avatar - jzy6nr
                      New York
                      United States
                      Member #83026
                      November 27, 2009
                      2132 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: August 1, 2010, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

                      Hopefully i know where you are going here. And I have to say that lotteries are not completely rrandom. This is tthe reason why officials do many pre and post draws. With Tru randomness (word?) every number should show within in its curcumfrence of time but this doesnt happen much. Non the less, you are smarter than the lottery if you can classify numbers the proper way. It doesnt take me much to hit the pick 3 or 4 because certain numbers statitically are more likely to come out way more than others.

                      "It doesnt take me much to hit the pick 3 or 4 because certain numbers statitically are more likely to come out way more than others."

                       

                      Would you care to share these numbers with the rest of us, or anything else that might help those of us not quite as adept at hitting the P3 or P4?

                       

                      Any help would be greatly appreciated,

                      Ranman

                      Be kind, because everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

                      An Unruly Evil


                        United States
                        Member #43694
                        July 23, 2006
                        184 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: August 3, 2010, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

                        Todd should move this thread to lottery discussion forum.

                          Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

                          United States
                          Member #69169
                          January 5, 2009
                          2122 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 3, 2010, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

                          "It doesnt take me much to hit the pick 3 or 4 because certain numbers statitically are more likely to come out way more than others."

                           

                          Would you care to share these numbers with the rest of us, or anything else that might help those of us not quite as adept at hitting the P3 or P4?

                           

                          Any help would be greatly appreciated,

                          Ranman

                          Nah. I'll pass. Its for me to know and you to find out like i did. lol

                          "Many Strategies|One Game"


                            United States
                            Member #43694
                            July 23, 2006
                            184 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 3, 2010, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

                            My title post here was to lay groundwork with the book, but no one is commenting on it.  I'm surprized somebody didn't discover at Amazon that there are 53 1-star reviews and quote one of them.  Maybe it's because there are 214 5-Star reviews, and a lot of the nay sayers just seem to be jealous, or put off by their perception of him as arrogant.  Decide for yourself.

                            Have you ever thought of going to another forum?


                            In case you are an old semi-sinile fart, I will remind you this is a site for people who is excited by the lottery, and look for various ways to predict the out come.


                            So coming here, (and trying to hold a discussion on a systems forum), to tell us there is no way to predict the lottery will not be accepted.

                            so bug off!!!!!!!!!!Bash


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 3, 2010, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

                              Have you ever thought of going to another forum?


                              In case you are an old semi-sinile fart, I will remind you this is a site for people who is excited by the lottery, and look for various ways to predict the out come.


                              So coming here, (and trying to hold a discussion on a systems forum), to tell us there is no way to predict the lottery will not be accepted.

                              so bug off!!!!!!!!!!Bash

                              Patience doesn't seem to be one of your virtues, RedToad.  As stated above, introducing the book was for groundwork.  The System Development and Testing is being prepared.  There will probably even be a couple of polls in the meantime.

                              There are a lot of Threads in this Forum.  If you need assistance in learning how to avoid mine, I'm sure there are people here who can help you.  Wink

                                 
                                Page 1 of 20