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Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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Posted: August 14, 2010, 9:24 pm - IP Logged

"I suppose I insulted your intelligence when I humbly tried to lecture you about the kind of approaches you need to play jackpot games."

When somebody asks me how many times a three digit number should be drawn in 12,000 drawings, I'm positive they're talking about a pick-3 game. So while some of your jackpot game approaches may be useful, why not wait until we know exactly where Jim is going?

Thanks Stack47!

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    Houston
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    Posted: August 14, 2010, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

    I may be completely off-track but I believe jimmy is presenting an amateur statistics course using real data from the PA lottery.  I don't think he is trying to say there is an actual winning system, nor does he have one.  I am hoping he continues on this adventure with workouts for various lottery systems.  Workouts that would show, had you applied TTT for instance to the PA lottery, tickets bought, percent of winners and profit or loss.  And I would hope that he continues to show workouts for other systems as well.

    Mega Think-Tank, on the other hand, leads us to believe that he has a system, not quite perfect yet, that works for JP games.  Based on his posts in this thread and posts in previous threads, he is not about to reveal that system nor is he going to post numbers prior to a draw so we can see it work.  He also thinks that the reason there are so many failures for jackpot players with systems is because they all think alike with slightly different variations.  His cure for that is to think outside the box and claims that is why his system is magnitudes better than others.

    Jimmy or MTT, if I am not correct, please post a brief summary with corrections.

    Critic,

    I do not believe in systems. I believe methods are the key to winning jackpot games. A system do what you program it to do. Therefore, it performs a function. However, the lottery numbers are not comform to the structure of a system. Just the fact the matrix can change day or night, renders any system ineffective.

    Methods can re-modify itself according to the matrix. One method can lead itself to a more improved performance and advance your understanding simultaneously.

    As far as "thinking outside the box" ------ it's really true. I can ensure you, statistical analysis, probabilities and using math and percentage is counter-productive. That's not to say it can't help you from time to time but it's certainly not an approach to model your stragety.

    You have a story on the front page of Lottery Post about a guy from Florida having won 7 times using a "method." And like me, he isn't about to reveal his secret. And like me, he spent years crafting his method. Those are the kind of thoroughbred players that knows the game and none of the players that use methods ever talk about statistical analysis, probabilities and the whole FARCE of that nonsense, man. It doesn't work ---- it's the "hook that leads the mind to captivity."

      truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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      Posted: August 14, 2010, 11:20 pm - IP Logged

      Critic,

      I do not believe in systems. I believe methods are the key to winning jackpot games. A system do what you program it to do. Therefore, it performs a function. However, the lottery numbers are not comform to the structure of a system. Just the fact the matrix can change day or night, renders any system ineffective.

      Methods can re-modify itself according to the matrix. One method can lead itself to a more improved performance and advance your understanding simultaneously.

      As far as "thinking outside the box" ------ it's really true. I can ensure you, statistical analysis, probabilities and using math and percentage is counter-productive. That's not to say it can't help you from time to time but it's certainly not an approach to model your stragety.

      You have a story on the front page of Lottery Post about a guy from Florida having won 7 times using a "method." And like me, he isn't about to reveal his secret. And like me, he spent years crafting his method. Those are the kind of thoroughbred players that knows the game and none of the players that use methods ever talk about statistical analysis, probabilities and the whole FARCE of that nonsense, man. It doesn't work ---- it's the "hook that leads the mind to captivity."

      OK, fair enough...method (instead of system).

      But I would note that the 7 time winner from FL is selling his system/method.  So that would reveal it.

        truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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        Posted: August 14, 2010, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

        truecritic,

        I think the above is a pretty fair appraisal of the situation.

        I'm working right now on a more generalized program to test Pick-3 results.  Once I get the "Buy the Winner of 3 Days Ago" results in a file, I'll arrange the 1, 2, and 3 day results into 3 collumns to shorten the output.  Then, I'll work on the variation discussed with Stack47 which will output the "How many times will the choice 'X' (Yesterday's Winner, TTT Pick, whatever) hit on AT LEAST ONE of the NEXT N DAYS."

        Eventually, the output may be too much to post.  (Limit?)  I noticed someone in another Forum arranging to share a file with someone using Box.net.  I signed up for the free account.  I need to find out if you can use Box.net without revealing your identity and whether LotteryPost approves of the Links.

        There is a "method to my madness!"

        --Jimmy4164

        Quote: "I think the above is a pretty fair appraisal of the situation."

        Thank you.

        As far as system testing output, in most cases a summary including the number of bets, number of winners and profit or loss would suffice. 

        Certainly if anyone is interested in a complete datafile, a file hosting site is the way to go.  I've not had a problem posting such a link in the past.  winsumloosesum posts them often for Excel files he writes.  There are several free ones to choose from and you don't always need an account - meaning they never know who you are.  Even when you open a free acc't, that can be done with a screen name - so you can still protect your identity.

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          Houston
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          Posted: August 15, 2010, 12:56 am - IP Logged

          OK, fair enough...method (instead of system).

          But I would note that the 7 time winner from FL is selling his system/method.  So that would reveal it.

          Good point but look how he commented about selling his system. He made it clear he will not tell his secret. What's to stop someone from selling snippets or partial stuff about his method knowing the buyers won't have the full knowledge to win jack, yet, he can make millions from jackpot prizes and a nice cash flow from those that buy his product?

          Sounds like a wise man to me.

            JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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            Posted: August 15, 2010, 7:28 am - IP Logged

            Hopefully I won't get fooled by random today with Connecticut mid 3..here's another example of vertical digit strings being "1 away"....I believe (but am not certain)that we can logically deduce the first position as having a great chance at being a 0 because of it's relation to a vertical string within the 3rd position

            3rd position=2-3-1-3-5-9

            1st position=3-4-1-4-6-?

             

            let's hope it works!

            Drawing DatePick 3Pick 4
            MiddayEveningMiddayEvening
            Sat, Aug 14, 20104-7-28-2-12-2-5-10-0-7-2
            Fri, Aug 13, 20101-1-31-6-65-0-2-06-5-1-2
            Thu, Aug 12, 20104-9-18-3-54-1-6-19-3-6-1
            Wed, Aug 11, 20103-3-38-3-86-4-4-96-2-2-0
            Tue, Aug 10, 20106-2-58-1-40-7-9-06-8-6-2
            Mon, Aug 9, 20108-5-97-1-68-4-5-83-3-4-9
            Sun, Aug 8, 20107-3-73-2-73-5-4-55-9-0-7
            Sat, Aug 7, 20104-9-19-6-80-7-4-09-0-0-0
            Fri, Aug 6, 20100-8-63-8-03-8-2-94-0-6-0

            "No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

            for always sticking up for me.."

             


              truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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              Posted: August 15, 2010, 11:40 am - IP Logged

              3rd position=2-3-1-3-5-9

              1st position=3-4-1-4-6-?

               

              let's hope it works!

              Drawing DatePick 3Pick 4
              MiddayEveningMiddayEvening
              Sat, Aug 14, 20104-7-28-2-12-2-5-10-0-7-2
              Fri, Aug 13, 20101-1-31-6-65-0-2-06-5-1-2
              Thu, Aug 12, 20104-9-18-3-54-1-6-19-3-6-1
              Wed, Aug 11, 20103-3-38-3-86-4-4-96-2-2-0
              Tue, Aug 10, 20106-2-58-1-40-7-9-06-8-6-2
              Mon, Aug 9, 20108-5-97-1-68-4-5-83-3-4-9
              Sun, Aug 8, 20107-3-73-2-73-5-4-55-9-0-7
              Sat, Aug 7, 20104-9-19-6-80-7-4-09-0-0-0
              Fri, Aug 6, 20100-8-63-8-03-8-2-94-0-6-0

               

              1st position=3-4-1-4-6-?  I don't see that?  I see 6-3-4-1-4-?

              I also don't see how you determined the next digit should be zero?

              Can you explain your examples in words - this one and the one where you said the 2nd digit would be an 8.

                JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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                Posted: August 15, 2010, 11:49 am - IP Logged

                you said ""...I don't see that? I see 6-3-4-1-4-?

                .my answer-.all I did was reform the pattern so it's easier on your eyes so you can see how the other pattern will/may affect it.

                "No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

                for always sticking up for me.."

                 


                  JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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                  Posted: August 15, 2010, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

                  also...after relooking things...digit 1 or 2 could also a good contender for first position...I will reform the pattern so you can see what I'm seeing

                  867441?3

                  86633112 

                  Drawing Date Pick 3 Pick 4
                  Midday Evening Midday Evening

                  Sat, Aug 14, 2010   4-7-2   8-2-1   2-2-5-1   0-0-7-2
                  Fri, Aug 13, 2010    1-1-3    1-6-6   5-0-2-0   6-5-1-2
                  Thu, Aug 12, 2010  4-9-1    8-3-5   4-1-6-1   9-3-6-1
                  Wed, Aug 11, 2010 3-3-3    8-3-8   6-4-4-9    6-2-2-0
                  Tue, Aug 10, 2010   6-2-5   8-1-4   0-7-9-0    6-8-6-2
                  Mon, Aug 9, 2010    8-5-9   7-1-6   8-4-5-8    3-3-4-9
                  Sun, Aug 8, 2010    7-3-7    3-2-7   3-5-4-5     5-9-0-7
                  Sat, Aug 7, 2010     4-9-1   9-6-8   0-7-4-0    9-0-0-0
                  Fri, Aug 6, 2010       0-8-6   3-8-0   3-8-2-9    4-0-6-0

                  "No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

                  for always sticking up for me.."

                   


                    JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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                    Posted: August 15, 2010, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

                    fooled by random again...448 mid Connecticut

                    Dupe Alert   andBS

                    "No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

                    for always sticking up for me.."

                     



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                      Posted: August 15, 2010, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

                      truecritic,

                      I think the above is a pretty fair appraisal of the situation.

                      I'm working right now on a more generalized program to test Pick-3 results.  Once I get the "Buy the Winner of 3 Days Ago" results in a file, I'll arrange the 1, 2, and 3 day results into 3 collumns to shorten the output.  Then, I'll work on the variation discussed with Stack47 which will output the "How many times will the choice 'X' (Yesterday's Winner, TTT Pick, whatever) hit on AT LEAST ONE of the NEXT N DAYS."

                      Eventually, the output may be too much to post.  (Limit?)  I noticed someone in another Forum arranging to share a file with someone using Box.net.  I signed up for the free account.  I need to find out if you can use Box.net without revealing your identity and whether LotteryPost approves of the Links.

                      There is a "method to my madness!"

                      --Jimmy4164

                      As promised, here is the side by side comparison of the results of

                      Betting on Recent Winners.

                      Note:  These three strategies are systems in that they are systematic ways of choosing numbers to bet on.

                      I am not recommending that you use them.  I want you to think about the results.

                      PA Daily Number (000-999)

                      March 1,1977 thru August 14, 2010 (Evening Draw)

                      Buy Winner of 1 Draw ago          Buy Winner of 2 Draws ago      Buy the Winner of 3 Draws ago

                      1980/01/09   1 - 8 - 2               1980/06/21   7 - 7 - 2             1983/01/17   1 - 5 - 1     
                      1980/01/10   1 - 8 - 2 ( 1 )         1980/06/23   1 - 2 - 4             1983/01/18   0 - 3 - 1       
                                                            1980/06/24   7 - 7 - 2 ( 1 )       1983/01/19   1 - 8 - 0     
                      1989/01/18   4 - 3 - 0                                                  1983/01/20   1 - 5 - 1 ( 1 )   
                      1989/01/19   4 - 3 - 0 ( 2 )         1982/02/09   6 - 9 - 5             
                                                            1982/02/10   2 - 6 - 8             1984/07/31   0 - 3 - 1     
                      1989/07/06   1 - 4 - 4               1982/02/11   6 - 9 - 5 ( 2 )       1984/08/01   3 - 6 - 7     
                      1989/07/07   1 - 4 - 4 ( 3 )                                            1984/08/02   1 - 1 - 7       
                                                            1985/02/20   9 - 1 - 8             1984/08/03   0 - 3 - 1 ( 2 )   
                      1993/09/29   4 - 0 - 0               1985/02/21   6 - 8 - 2           
                      1993/09/30   4 - 0 - 0 ( 4 )         1985/02/22   9 - 1 - 8 ( 3 )       1990/08/21   1 - 7 - 1       
                                                                                               1990/08/22   7 - 2 - 7     
                      1994/02/13   9 - 5 - 6               1986/12/16   7 - 1 - 0             1990/08/23   8 - 0 - 8     
                      1994/02/14   9 - 5 - 6 ( 5 )         1986/12/17   9 - 9 - 9             1990/08/24   1 - 7 - 1 ( 3 )     
                                                            1986/12/18   7 - 1 - 0 ( 4 )         
                      1998/08/16   6 - 9 - 7                                                  1992/02/26   5 - 4 - 1     
                      1998/08/17   6 - 9 - 7 ( 6 )         1988/03/16   8 - 2 - 3             1992/02/27   7 - 2 - 6       
                                                            1988/03/17   4 - 5 - 6             1992/02/28   7 - 5 - 1     
                      1998/10/14   7 - 9 - 2               1988/03/18   8 - 2 - 3 ( 5 )       1992/02/29   5 - 4 - 1 ( 4 )   
                      1998/10/15   7 - 9 - 2 ( 7 )                 
                                                            1988/05/27   8 - 7 - 0             1995/04/06   3 - 0 - 3     
                      2001/04/14   5 - 0 - 5               1988/05/28   6 - 1 - 7             1995/04/07   4 - 6 - 6     
                      2001/04/15   5 - 0 - 5 ( 8 )         1988/05/30   8 - 7 - 0 ( 6 )       1995/04/08   8 - 1 - 5       
                                                                                               1995/04/09   3 - 0 - 3 ( 5 )   
                      2002/05/17   4 - 1 - 5               1989/04/10   3 - 9 - 6           
                      2002/05/18   4 - 1 - 5 ( 9 )         1989/04/11   5 - 9 - 7             1995/11/10   6 - 1 - 5       
                                                            1989/04/12   3 - 9 - 6 ( 7 )       1995/11/11   1 - 2 - 6     
                      2005/04/07   8 - 7 - 8                                                  1995/11/12   2 - 0 - 6     
                      2005/04/08   8 - 7 - 8 ( 10 )        1993/01/09   8 - 5 - 4             1995/11/13   6 - 1 - 5 ( 6 )     
                                                            1993/01/10   8 - 1 - 6           
                      2006/12/19   6 - 2 - 0               1993/01/11   8 - 5 - 4 ( 8 )       2001/05/21   7 - 7 - 2     
                      2006/12/20   6 - 2 - 0 ( 11 )                                           2001/05/22   1 - 2 - 4       
                                                            1993/06/18   1 - 1 - 9             2001/05/23   2 - 8 - 2     
                      2007/09/01   7 - 9 - 8               1993/06/19   8 - 4 - 4             2001/05/24   7 - 7 - 2 ( 7 )   
                      2007/09/02   7 - 9 - 8 ( 12 )        1993/06/20   1 - 1 - 9 ( 9 )           
                                                                                               2001/10/24   6 - 4 - 0     
                      2007/09/17   8 - 8 - 2               1993/11/30   8 - 3 - 6             2001/10/25   3 - 7 - 6     
                      2007/09/18   8 - 8 - 2 ( 13 )        1993/12/01   5 - 4 - 6             2001/10/26   1 - 6 - 5       
                                                            1993/12/02   8 - 3 - 6 ( 10 )      2001/10/27   6 - 4 - 0 ( 8 )   
                      2009/09/12   4 - 0 - 7                 
                      2009/09/13   4 - 0 - 7 ( 14 )        1995/05/10   0 - 9 - 2             2005/08/30   1 - 3 - 6       
                                                            1995/05/11   5 - 8 - 7             2005/08/31   2 - 0 - 6       
                                                            1995/05/12   0 - 9 - 2 ( 11 )      2005/09/01   5 - 1 - 1       
                                                                                               2005/09/02   1 - 3 - 6 ( 9 )     
                                                            1996/10/25   9 - 0 - 7             
                                                            1996/10/26   3 - 8 - 5             2005/12/29   9 - 7 - 6       
                                                            1996/10/27   9 - 0 - 7 ( 12 )      2005/12/30   3 - 1 - 5       
                                                                                               2005/12/31   7 - 0 - 4       
                                                            2002/08/24   8 - 6 - 7             2006/01/01   9 - 7 - 6 ( 10 )     
                                                            2002/08/25   4 - 3 - 3             
                                                            2002/08/26   8 - 6 - 7 ( 13 )      2008/03/28   1 - 8 - 3       
                                                                                               2008/03/29   5 - 6 - 3       
                                                            2003/03/23   3 - 5 - 4             2008/03/30   7 - 3 - 3       
                                                            2003/03/24   5 - 8 - 5             2008/03/31   1 - 8 - 3 ( 11 )     
                                                            2003/03/25   3 - 5 - 4 ( 14 )           
                                                                                               2010/01/05   8 - 4 - 2       
                                                            2007/01/09   6 - 5 - 8             2010/01/06   8 - 8 - 8       
                                                            2007/01/10   1 - 9 - 8             2010/01/07   3 - 7 - 4       
                                                            2007/01/11   6 - 5 - 8 ( 15 )      2010/01/08   8 - 4 - 2 ( 12 )     
                                                               
                                                            2008/04/20   6 - 9 - 4                                   
                                                            2008/04/21   7 - 9 - 8                                   
                                                            2008/04/22   6 - 9 - 4 ( 16 )                                 


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                        Posted: August 15, 2010, 4:50 pm - IP Logged

                        There was a 90% chance that zero would NOT be drawn in the first position, and that's what happened.  So, with your zero prediction, you made a 90% event come true!  Right?  Big Smile

                          JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
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                          Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

                          There was a 90% chance that zero would NOT be drawn in the first position, and that's what happened.  So, with your zero prediction, you made a 90% event come true!  Right?  Big Smile

                          how do you figure 90 percent?...

                          "No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

                          for always sticking up for me.."

                           


                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:45 pm - IP Logged

                            how do you figure 90 percent?...

                            If you look at all combinations from 000 - 999, only 100 have a zero in the first position which would be 100/1000 or 10% meaning the other 90% don't.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
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                              Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:48 pm - IP Logged

                              how do you figure 90 percent?...

                              JonnyBgood,

                              You passed the test by recognizing my post was nonsense!

                              I have been offered circular fallacies like this here to allegedly prove unprovable positions, so I decided to try it myself.  Smile

                              --Jimmy4164

                                 
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