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Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:51 pm - IP Logged

JonnyBgood,

You passed the test by recognizing my post was nonsense!

I have been offered circular fallacies like this here to allegedly prove unprovable positions, so I decided to try it myself.  Smile

--Jimmy4164

However, RGOh's post above is also TRUE!  The nonsense was saying your zero pick forced a 90% event.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

    JonnyBgood,

    You passed the test by recognizing my post was nonsense!

    I have been offered circular fallacies like this here to allegedly prove unprovable positions, so I decided to try it myself.  Smile

    --Jimmy4164

    You passed the test by recognizing my post was nonsense!

    There seems to be more and more LP posts like that.  It's confusing when you try to take them seriously.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      JonnyBgood07's avatar - Patriots logo1.jpg
      Connecticut
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      Posted: August 15, 2010, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

      If you look at all combinations from 000 - 999, only 100 have a zero in the first position which would be 100/1000 or 10% meaning the other 90% don't.

      gotcha..

      "No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

      for always sticking up for me.."

       


        Avatar
        Kentucky
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        Posted: August 16, 2010, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

        There was a 90% chance that zero would NOT be drawn in the first position, and that's what happened.  So, with your zero prediction, you made a 90% event come true!  Right?  Big Smile

        But in last 5400 PA Evening drawings, the zero did repeat 53 times in the first position. Overall the first digit numbers repeated 557 times or in 10.31% of the drawings. In the last 1000 drawings the first digits repeated in 11.2% of the drawings.

        I was looking at your chart and noticed there were no repeat winners between 1/10/1980 and 1/19/1989 but since then the gaps have been less than 5 years. It's possible you may have missed a repeat in that 9 year period but if not, are you sure you want use a system where there might be another 8 years before the next hit?


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          Posted: August 16, 2010, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

          But in last 5400 PA Evening drawings, the zero did repeat 53 times in the first position. Overall the first digit numbers repeated 557 times or in 10.31% of the drawings. In the last 1000 drawings the first digits repeated in 11.2% of the drawings.

          I was looking at your chart and noticed there were no repeat winners between 1/10/1980 and 1/19/1989 but since then the gaps have been less than 5 years. It's possible you may have missed a repeat in that 9 year period but if not, are you sure you want use a system where there might be another 8 years before the next hit?

          Stack47,

          Everything you've observed is within range of the expected.  I guess I need to be more clear about why these results are being reported here.

          I am NOT proposing that any of these "Systems" be used by anyone with expectations of making a profit over time.

          What I'm hoping is that, at some point, a few people will come to the realization that it really doesn't matter what sort of "System" they use in this PA game.  I am confident that, on average, buying one $1 Straight ticket per day, they are going to hit for $500 about four (3.65) times every 10 years or so.  The result on their bottom line will be -$3650 spent buying tickets, and +$1825 in winning ticket payoffs.  (I'll let you combine these two $ amounts.)  Spending more than $1 per day will increase both these numbers by the same factor.  Anyone who finds themselves ahead of this game at any point should "take their winnings and run" as you did recently and start buying Pick-5, Pick6, or Powerball tickets.  These games have astronomical odds against you winning jackpots, but at least you have a chance, and can dream, which is what this is all about!

          --Jimmy4164

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: August 16, 2010, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

            However, RGOh's post above is also TRUE!  The nonsense was saying your zero pick forced a 90% event.

            Jimmy

            I have the perfect system that you can backtest until you are convinced.

            Test #1

            Step #1  Find ten pennies and mark one of them with a marker.

            Step#2  Place them in a lunch bag and shake, shake, shake

                          (Simulate a Ball Drop lottery)

            Step #3  Without looking, reach in and remove one of the pennies

            Step #4  Check to see if the one selected is the marked penny

            Step #5  Place the selected penny back in the bag and repeat

            Step #6  Do this for 33 1/2 years and then report your findings.

             

            Now tell me which would be the better method. 

            Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

            Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection.

             

            If you are still unconvinced then you can repeat the process all over

            using only 9 pennies, if you are still not convinced repeat until you are 

            down to 3 pennies including the one that has the mark.

             

            I can predict with a very small margin of error what the totals for each test

            would be. 

             

            If you cannot see the logic behind this then it explains very well why you

            think no avantage can be gained. 

             

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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              Posted: August 16, 2010, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

              Jimmy

              I have the perfect system that you can backtest until you are convinced.

              Test #1

              Step #1  Find ten pennies and mark one of them with a marker.

              Step#2  Place them in a lunch bag and shake, shake, shake

                            (Simulate a Ball Drop lottery)

              Step #3  Without looking, reach in and remove one of the pennies

              Step #4  Check to see if the one selected is the marked penny

              Step #5  Place the selected penny back in the bag and repeat

              Step #6  Do this for 33 1/2 years and then report your findings.

               

              Now tell me which would be the better method. 

              Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

              Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection.

               

              If you are still unconvinced then you can repeat the process all over

              using only 9 pennies, if you are still not convinced repeat until you are 

              down to 3 pennies including the one that has the mark.

               

              I can predict with a very small margin of error what the totals for each test

              would be. 

               

              If you cannot see the logic behind this then it explains very well why you

              think no avantage can be gained. 

               

              RL

              RL,

              Conviced of WHAT?

              "Now tell me which would be the better method. 

              Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

              Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection."

              ...that removing numbers from your betting choices that are available to the Random Drawing Machines under the mistaken notion that they are less likely to be drawn so as to reduce the number of tickets you must purchase ==>> is going to increase your odds of winning?

              I think you're still trying to convince yourself.

              Obviously, the Gambler's Fallacy lives on; your entire way of thinking is based upon it.

                --Jimmy4164

              p.s.  I have all 11570 rows of the Pennsylvania P3 results broken out by date, 100s digit, 10s digit, units digit, and the integer they are the components of.  Not really that interesting.  Might make a reasonable set of Random Numbers.


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                Posted: August 16, 2010, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

                Yesterday's Winners!

                Here's what would have happened if you had made your P3 selections for 33+ years using the following rule:

                Play Yesterday's Number Reversed (I.E., if 1-2-3 hit yesterday, play 3-2-1 today)

                This is NOT a suggested system to play.  It is merely an illustration of the Random nature of Lotteries.

                Based on PA Daily Number (Evening) Actual Results

                March 1, 1977 thru August 15, 2010

                1979/08/06   3 - 7 - 1 
                1979/08/07   1 - 7 - 3 ( 1 )
                 
                1983/11/09   1 - 3 - 0 
                1983/11/10   0 - 3 - 1 ( 2 )
                 
                1985/03/11   5 - 1 - 7 
                1985/03/12   7 - 1 - 5 ( 3 )
                 
                1989/11/26   7 - 9 - 1 
                1989/11/27   1 - 9 - 7 ( 4 )
                 
                1991/07/20   2 - 0 - 9 
                1991/07/21   9 - 0 - 2 ( 5 )
                 
                1992/01/09   0 - 8 - 1 
                1992/01/10   1 - 8 - 0 ( 6 )
                 
                1993/01/12   3 - 6 - 1 
                1993/01/13   1 - 6 - 3 ( 7 )
                 
                1995/09/02   1 - 5 - 3 
                1995/09/03   3 - 5 - 1 ( 8 )
                 
                1999/01/29   3 - 2 - 2 
                1999/01/30   2 - 2 - 3 ( 9 )
                 
                2000/10/06   6 - 1 - 0 
                2000/10/07   0 - 1 - 6 ( 10 )
                 
                2001/04/14   5 - 0 - 5 
                2001/04/15   5 - 0 - 5 ( 11 )
                 
                2005/04/07   8 - 7 - 8 
                2005/04/08   8 - 7 - 8 ( 12 )
                 
                2009/03/15   1 - 3 - 6 
                2009/03/16   6 - 3 - 1 ( 13 )

                ---------------------------------------------------

                Other (similar) results can be viewed here:

                http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1743213

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                  Posted: August 16, 2010, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

                  RL,

                  Conviced of WHAT?

                  "Now tell me which would be the better method. 

                  Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

                  Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection."

                  ...that removing numbers from your betting choices that are available to the Random Drawing Machines under the mistaken notion that they are less likely to be drawn so as to reduce the number of tickets you must purchase ==>> is going to increase your odds of winning?

                  I think you're still trying to convince yourself.

                  Obviously, the Gambler's Fallacy lives on; your entire way of thinking is based upon it.

                    --Jimmy4164

                  p.s.  I have all 11570 rows of the Pennsylvania P3 results broken out by date, 100s digit, 10s digit, units digit, and the integer they are the components of.  Not really that interesting.  Might make a reasonable set of Random Numbers.

                  Wrong again jimmy boy.

                   

                  You think that I am choosing numbers based on what has happened.  If I pick 1 without

                  reguard to anything I can expect to be correct about 1 in every ten selections.  However If I

                  select one in the same manner not to play than I will be correct in not playing it 90% of the

                  time.  Do the test for your self and test it. 

                  One cannot exist without the other and if the draw process is fair than the odds never change

                  for any one selection.  I will always have a raito of 1 in 10 which will always lead me to discard

                  my first selection when selecting in this manner.  Sure there are days when my method will

                  fail but these can be calculated to.  If I remove the first selection and then select another without

                  reguard to anything then I have a 1 in 9 of being correct. 

                  the Fallacy of the "Gambler's Fallacy" 

                  You cannot use your methode to prove your point and then ignore the same results when applied to make my point,

                  Well I guess you can because you do it all the time.   Do a fair test and prove it to your self as I think this could settle

                  it once and for all.  Anyone at home can do this and find the results.  I have never said this will ensure a win but it

                  will reduce the odds. 

                  .

                  RL   

                   

                   

                   


                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                    LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                    Tx
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                    Posted: August 16, 2010, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

                    Is random the same as random or is there something as more random and or less random, if the drawings are "random" why have pre-draws and have changes of machines and ball sets, Does doing those things make draws more random? Does that means that the drawings are not random to start with and that they need some "help" so they can be made random?

                    The spins inside the drum are not enough to make the drawings random? If that is not enough then nothing would be enough, perhaps if that is true then there is no such thing as random.

                    Are "Random Patterns" a valid notion? If there is something as "Random Patterns" then it might mean that "Random" has patterns, if so, then can there be really such as things are random? Isn't "random" a lack of patterns?

                    And if there are patterns and if there is no random, there perhaps people who use stats of patterns can get some winning advantage on the games.

                    -----------

                    Never mind any of that, sometimes, often or all of the time it might be best to leave people or some alone with their own opinions.

                    These things can have no end to them and drag on for ever.

                    Let people be can be both ways:

                    1: Don't ask.

                    2: Don't tell.

                    = Don't argue.

                    Maybe that doesn't = Everybody happy or it does, but Who can have it all? Maybe some can?

                    So long as Be and Let Be doesn't hurt in some way one side or the other that might at least mean peace.

                    ------------

                    But Who am I to say those things?, If it didn't bother me, I would not be posting this.

                    BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                    "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                      Tx
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                      Posted: August 16, 2010, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

                      Is random the same as random or is there something as more random and or less random, if the drawings are "random" why have pre-draws and have changes of machines and ball sets, Does doing those things make draws more random? Does that means that the drawings are not random to start with and that they need some "help" so they can be made random?

                      The spins inside the drum are not enough to make the drawings random? If that is not enough then nothing would be enough, perhaps if that is true then there is no such thing as random.

                      Are "Random Patterns" a valid notion? If there is something as "Random Patterns" then it might mean that "Random" has patterns, if so, then can there be really such as things are random? Isn't "random" a lack of patterns?

                      And if there are patterns and if there is no random, there perhaps people who use stats of patterns can get some winning advantage on the games.

                      -----------

                      Never mind any of that, sometimes, often or all of the time it might be best to leave people or some alone with their own opinions.

                      These things can have no end to them and drag on for ever.

                      Let people be can be both ways:

                      1: Don't ask.

                      2: Don't tell.

                      = Don't argue.

                      Maybe that doesn't = Everybody happy or it does, but Who can have it all? Maybe some can?

                      So long as Be and Let Be doesn't hurt in some way one side or the other that might at least mean peace.

                      ------------

                      But Who am I to say those things?, If it didn't bother me, I would not be posting this.

                      I was curious as to why He was angry and "Was Fooled By Randomness".

                      Maybe he was "Fooled By Randomness" because he thought that he could not get an advantage on the game and that made him angry?

                      Or Maybe because he is making too much money playing and winning the Pa pick 3 game?

                      Talk about having a "Gold Mine" of a game!

                      Who cares about "random" when you have a game like this?

                      Lucky Cats!

                      Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Midday Winning Numbers
                       Draw Date       Results
                      Mon, Aug 16, 2010    2-2-9
                      Sun, Aug 15, 2010    7-7-8
                      Sat, Aug 14, 2010    8-8-4
                      Fri, Aug 13, 2010    1-1-4
                      Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-4-4
                      Wed, Aug 11, 2010    5-5-3
                      Tue, Aug 10, 2010    5-0-0
                      Mon, Aug 9, 2010    5-2-0 Bad Draw, Shame On "Random"!
                      Sun, Aug 8, 2010    2-2-1
                      Sat, Aug 7, 2010    6-0-6
                      ---------------
                      Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Evening Winning Numbers
                       Draw Date       Results
                      Mon, Aug 16, 2010    6-5-6
                      Sun, Aug 15, 2010    0-0-6
                      Sat, Aug 14, 2010    3-9-3
                      Fri, Aug 13, 2010    6-9-8
                      Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-7-9
                      Wed, Aug 11, 2010    8-6-8
                      Tue, Aug 10, 2010    7-8-2
                      Mon, Aug 9, 2010    9-0-9
                      Sun, Aug 8, 2010    8-7-1
                      Sat, Aug 7, 2010    5-3-9
                      ------------

                      I now clearly see what you mean when you say, that "Random" doesn't let you gain an advantage on the lottery games.

                      Counting the money that you won is making you very tired and angry at the game and at "random".

                      Maybe all that Gold is way too heavy?

                      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                        LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                        Tx
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                        Posted: August 16, 2010, 9:58 pm - IP Logged

                        I was curious as to why He was angry and "Was Fooled By Randomness".

                        Maybe he was "Fooled By Randomness" because he thought that he could not get an advantage on the game and that made him angry?

                        Or Maybe because he is making too much money playing and winning the Pa pick 3 game?

                        Talk about having a "Gold Mine" of a game!

                        Who cares about "random" when you have a game like this?

                        Lucky Cats!

                        Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Midday Winning Numbers
                         Draw Date       Results
                        Mon, Aug 16, 2010    2-2-9
                        Sun, Aug 15, 2010    7-7-8
                        Sat, Aug 14, 2010    8-8-4
                        Fri, Aug 13, 2010    1-1-4
                        Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-4-4
                        Wed, Aug 11, 2010    5-5-3
                        Tue, Aug 10, 2010    5-0-0
                        Mon, Aug 9, 2010    5-2-0 Bad Draw, Shame On "Random"!
                        Sun, Aug 8, 2010    2-2-1
                        Sat, Aug 7, 2010    6-0-6
                        ---------------
                        Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Evening Winning Numbers
                         Draw Date       Results
                        Mon, Aug 16, 2010    6-5-6
                        Sun, Aug 15, 2010    0-0-6
                        Sat, Aug 14, 2010    3-9-3
                        Fri, Aug 13, 2010    6-9-8
                        Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-7-9
                        Wed, Aug 11, 2010    8-6-8
                        Tue, Aug 10, 2010    7-8-2
                        Mon, Aug 9, 2010    9-0-9
                        Sun, Aug 8, 2010    8-7-1
                        Sat, Aug 7, 2010    5-3-9
                        ------------

                        I now clearly see what you mean when you say, that "Random" doesn't let you gain an advantage on the lottery games.

                        Counting the money that you won is making you very tired and angry at the game and at "random".

                        Maybe all that Gold is way too heavy?

                        Why am I "Cursed" with being able to "See" what others don't?

                        And you say that there are no winning patterns on the histories of the past draws?

                        Maybe I took too many "Magic" mushrooms and I am dreaming all of these?

                        (Sorry, I am Clean, I am a good boy (More or less, but maybe less) I don't do any such things, not those anyway.)

                        I don't ingest Kaka of any kind whatsoever nor smoke nor anything else.

                        Nor should anybody else!

                        BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                        "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                          Posted: August 16, 2010, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

                          Why am I "Cursed" with being able to "See" what others don't?

                          And you say that there are no winning patterns on the histories of the past draws?

                          Maybe I took too many "Magic" mushrooms and I am dreaming all of these?

                          (Sorry, I am Clean, I am a good boy (More or less, but maybe less) I don't do any such things, not those anyway.)

                          I don't ingest Kaka of any kind whatsoever nor smoke nor anything else.

                          Nor should anybody else!

                          LANTERN

                          I Believe you 100%, Thumbs UP

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                            LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                            Tx
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                            Posted: August 16, 2010, 10:26 pm - IP Logged

                            LANTERN

                            I Believe you 100%, Thumbs UP

                            RL

                            RL

                            I wonder what Jimmy will now say?

                            Maybe that it is a "Freak Of Nature" and that those things really don't happen?

                            That there is of course a very extreme happening, but regardless there are always patterns of some kind or another, just not very often so obvious and so good as that either, patterns of some kind will always be there just maybe not this good, so very often anyway, but study can always uncover something even if it is just a very small advantage.

                            Perhaps there are flexible limits to predictability and also to unpredictability, but to those who are better than me, there would be fewer unpredictability limitations, the better at this kind of thing that you are the smaller or fewer that the unpredictability limits would be.

                            I myself am not so good.

                            I have trouble counting up to 10, I have to use both all fingers and toes and then I always come up with 20 instead of just 10Jester

                            BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                            "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                              Tx
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                              Posted: August 16, 2010, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

                              I was curious as to why He was angry and "Was Fooled By Randomness".

                              Maybe he was "Fooled By Randomness" because he thought that he could not get an advantage on the game and that made him angry?

                              Or Maybe because he is making too much money playing and winning the Pa pick 3 game?

                              Talk about having a "Gold Mine" of a game!

                              Who cares about "random" when you have a game like this?

                              Lucky Cats!

                              Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Midday Winning Numbers
                               Draw Date       Results
                              Mon, Aug 16, 2010    2-2-9
                              Sun, Aug 15, 2010    7-7-8
                              Sat, Aug 14, 2010    8-8-4
                              Fri, Aug 13, 2010    1-1-4
                              Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-4-4
                              Wed, Aug 11, 2010    5-5-3
                              Tue, Aug 10, 2010    5-0-0
                              Mon, Aug 9, 2010    5-2-0 Bad Draw, Shame On "Random"!
                              Sun, Aug 8, 2010    2-2-1
                              Sat, Aug 7, 2010    6-0-6
                              ---------------
                              Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Evening Winning Numbers
                               Draw Date       Results
                              Mon, Aug 16, 2010    6-5-6
                              Sun, Aug 15, 2010    0-0-6
                              Sat, Aug 14, 2010    3-9-3
                              Fri, Aug 13, 2010    6-9-8
                              Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-7-9
                              Wed, Aug 11, 2010    8-6-8
                              Tue, Aug 10, 2010    7-8-2
                              Mon, Aug 9, 2010    9-0-9
                              Sun, Aug 8, 2010    8-7-1
                              Sat, Aug 7, 2010    5-3-9
                              ------------

                              I now clearly see what you mean when you say, that "Random" doesn't let you gain an advantage on the lottery games.

                              Counting the money that you won is making you very tired and angry at the game and at "random".

                              Maybe all that Gold is way too heavy?

                              A word of warning, while nothing is for sure either way it has before appeared as if often after posts such as that one are made. right away or soon enough there-after patterns stop being-change so if now you play those patterns you might still win or maybe you won't, but it should be unlikely that they would continue for-ever, that pattern trend leads me right now to believe that that might be a computer or some other kind of RNG that produced it, I of course might be wrong, but even if it is a RNG of some kind, it might any-time stop being (The pattern) and what better time for it to change than some-time after such a public post is made, so maybe either right away or soon there after, but Who knows? I sure don't? But I thought that I would warn you just in case.

                              But that could mean money lost if the pattern is not played and if it keeps on going, but what a risk, it is your money not mine so you take the risk or not, up to you.

                              Good Luck!

                              BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                              "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                                 
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