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# Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 7 years ago by jimmy4164.

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United States
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 Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:51 pm - IP Logged

JonnyBgood,

You passed the test by recognizing my post was nonsense!

I have been offered circular fallacies like this here to allegedly prove unprovable positions, so I decided to try it myself.

--Jimmy4164

However, RGOh's post above is also TRUE!  The nonsense was saying your zero pick forced a 90% event.

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
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 Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

JonnyBgood,

You passed the test by recognizing my post was nonsense!

I have been offered circular fallacies like this here to allegedly prove unprovable positions, so I decided to try it myself.

--Jimmy4164

You passed the test by recognizing my post was nonsense!

There seems to be more and more LP posts like that.  It's confusing when you try to take them seriously.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Connecticut
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 Posted: August 15, 2010, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

If you look at all combinations from 000 - 999, only 100 have a zero in the first position which would be 100/1000 or 10% meaning the other 90% don't.

gotcha..

"No matter how bad things may get, I'd like to thank my middle finger

for always sticking up for me.."

Kentucky
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February 14, 2006
7542 Posts
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

There was a 90% chance that zero would NOT be drawn in the first position, and that's what happened.  So, with your zero prediction, you made a 90% event come true!  Right?

But in last 5400 PA Evening drawings, the zero did repeat 53 times in the first position. Overall the first digit numbers repeated 557 times or in 10.31% of the drawings. In the last 1000 drawings the first digits repeated in 11.2% of the drawings.

I was looking at your chart and noticed there were no repeat winners between 1/10/1980 and 1/19/1989 but since then the gaps have been less than 5 years. It's possible you may have missed a repeat in that 9 year period but if not, are you sure you want use a system where there might be another 8 years before the next hit?

United States
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July 10, 2010
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

But in last 5400 PA Evening drawings, the zero did repeat 53 times in the first position. Overall the first digit numbers repeated 557 times or in 10.31% of the drawings. In the last 1000 drawings the first digits repeated in 11.2% of the drawings.

I was looking at your chart and noticed there were no repeat winners between 1/10/1980 and 1/19/1989 but since then the gaps have been less than 5 years. It's possible you may have missed a repeat in that 9 year period but if not, are you sure you want use a system where there might be another 8 years before the next hit?

Stack47,

Everything you've observed is within range of the expected.  I guess I need to be more clear about why these results are being reported here.

I am NOT proposing that any of these "Systems" be used by anyone with expectations of making a profit over time.

What I'm hoping is that, at some point, a few people will come to the realization that it really doesn't matter what sort of "System" they use in this PA game.  I am confident that, on average, buying one \$1 Straight ticket per day, they are going to hit for \$500 about four (3.65) times every 10 years or so.  The result on their bottom line will be -\$3650 spent buying tickets, and +\$1825 in winning ticket payoffs.  (I'll let you combine these two \$ amounts.)  Spending more than \$1 per day will increase both these numbers by the same factor.  Anyone who finds themselves ahead of this game at any point should "take their winnings and run" as you did recently and start buying Pick-5, Pick6, or Powerball tickets.  These games have astronomical odds against you winning jackpots, but at least you have a chance, and can dream, which is what this is all about!

--Jimmy4164

United States
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March 13, 2008
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

However, RGOh's post above is also TRUE!  The nonsense was saying your zero pick forced a 90% event.

Jimmy

I have the perfect system that you can backtest until you are convinced.

Test #1

Step #1  Find ten pennies and mark one of them with a marker.

Step#2  Place them in a lunch bag and shake, shake, shake

(Simulate a Ball Drop lottery)

Step #3  Without looking, reach in and remove one of the pennies

Step #4  Check to see if the one selected is the marked penny

Step #5  Place the selected penny back in the bag and repeat

Step #6  Do this for 33 1/2 years and then report your findings.

Now tell me which would be the better method.

Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection.

If you are still unconvinced then you can repeat the process all over

using only 9 pennies, if you are still not convinced repeat until you are

down to 3 pennies including the one that has the mark.

I can predict with a very small margin of error what the totals for each test

would be.

If you cannot see the logic behind this then it explains very well why you

think no avantage can be gained.

RL

....

United States
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

Jimmy

I have the perfect system that you can backtest until you are convinced.

Test #1

Step #1  Find ten pennies and mark one of them with a marker.

Step#2  Place them in a lunch bag and shake, shake, shake

(Simulate a Ball Drop lottery)

Step #3  Without looking, reach in and remove one of the pennies

Step #4  Check to see if the one selected is the marked penny

Step #5  Place the selected penny back in the bag and repeat

Step #6  Do this for 33 1/2 years and then report your findings.

Now tell me which would be the better method.

Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection.

If you are still unconvinced then you can repeat the process all over

using only 9 pennies, if you are still not convinced repeat until you are

down to 3 pennies including the one that has the mark.

I can predict with a very small margin of error what the totals for each test

would be.

If you cannot see the logic behind this then it explains very well why you

think no avantage can be gained.

RL

RL,

Conviced of WHAT?

"Now tell me which would be the better method.

Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection."

...that removing numbers from your betting choices that are available to the Random Drawing Machines under the mistaken notion that they are less likely to be drawn so as to reduce the number of tickets you must purchase ==>> is going to increase your odds of winning?

I think you're still trying to convince yourself.

Obviously, the Gambler's Fallacy lives on; your entire way of thinking is based upon it.

--Jimmy4164

p.s.  I have all 11570 rows of the Pennsylvania P3 results broken out by date, 100s digit, 10s digit, units digit, and the integer they are the components of.  Not really that interesting.  Might make a reasonable set of Random Numbers.

United States
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

Yesterday's Winners!

Here's what would have happened if you had made your P3 selections for 33+ years using the following rule:

Play Yesterday's Number Reversed (I.E., if 1-2-3 hit yesterday, play 3-2-1 today)

This is NOT a suggested system to play.  It is merely an illustration of the Random nature of Lotteries.

Based on PA Daily Number (Evening) Actual Results

March 1, 1977 thru August 15, 2010

1979/08/06   3 - 7 - 1
1979/08/07   1 - 7 - 3 ( 1 )

1983/11/09   1 - 3 - 0
1983/11/10   0 - 3 - 1 ( 2 )

1985/03/11   5 - 1 - 7
1985/03/12   7 - 1 - 5 ( 3 )

1989/11/26   7 - 9 - 1
1989/11/27   1 - 9 - 7 ( 4 )

1991/07/20   2 - 0 - 9
1991/07/21   9 - 0 - 2 ( 5 )

1992/01/09   0 - 8 - 1
1992/01/10   1 - 8 - 0 ( 6 )

1993/01/12   3 - 6 - 1
1993/01/13   1 - 6 - 3 ( 7 )

1995/09/02   1 - 5 - 3
1995/09/03   3 - 5 - 1 ( 8 )

1999/01/29   3 - 2 - 2
1999/01/30   2 - 2 - 3 ( 9 )

2000/10/06   6 - 1 - 0
2000/10/07   0 - 1 - 6 ( 10 )

2001/04/14   5 - 0 - 5
2001/04/15   5 - 0 - 5 ( 11 )

2005/04/07   8 - 7 - 8
2005/04/08   8 - 7 - 8 ( 12 )

2009/03/15   1 - 3 - 6
2009/03/16   6 - 3 - 1 ( 13 )

---------------------------------------------------

Other (similar) results can be viewed here:

United States
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March 13, 2008
4322 Posts
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

RL,

Conviced of WHAT?

"Now tell me which would be the better method.

Choice #1 Play the penny first selected

Choice #2 remove it from the pool and make another selection."

...that removing numbers from your betting choices that are available to the Random Drawing Machines under the mistaken notion that they are less likely to be drawn so as to reduce the number of tickets you must purchase ==>> is going to increase your odds of winning?

I think you're still trying to convince yourself.

Obviously, the Gambler's Fallacy lives on; your entire way of thinking is based upon it.

--Jimmy4164

p.s.  I have all 11570 rows of the Pennsylvania P3 results broken out by date, 100s digit, 10s digit, units digit, and the integer they are the components of.  Not really that interesting.  Might make a reasonable set of Random Numbers.

Wrong again jimmy boy.

You think that I am choosing numbers based on what has happened.  If I pick 1 without

reguard to anything I can expect to be correct about 1 in every ten selections.  However If I

select one in the same manner not to play than I will be correct in not playing it 90% of the

time.  Do the test for your self and test it.

One cannot exist without the other and if the draw process is fair than the odds never change

for any one selection.  I will always have a raito of 1 in 10 which will always lead me to discard

my first selection when selecting in this manner.  Sure there are days when my method will

fail but these can be calculated to.  If I remove the first selection and then select another without

reguard to anything then I have a 1 in 9 of being correct.

the Fallacy of the "Gambler's Fallacy"

You cannot use your methode to prove your point and then ignore the same results when applied to make my point,

Well I guess you can because you do it all the time.   Do a fair test and prove it to your self as I think this could settle

it once and for all.  Anyone at home can do this and find the results.  I have never said this will ensure a win but it

will reduce the odds.

.

RL

....

Tx
United States
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May 4, 2004
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

Is random the same as random or is there something as more random and or less random, if the drawings are "random" why have pre-draws and have changes of machines and ball sets, Does doing those things make draws more random? Does that means that the drawings are not random to start with and that they need some "help" so they can be made random?

The spins inside the drum are not enough to make the drawings random? If that is not enough then nothing would be enough, perhaps if that is true then there is no such thing as random.

Are "Random Patterns" a valid notion? If there is something as "Random Patterns" then it might mean that "Random" has patterns, if so, then can there be really such as things are random? Isn't "random" a lack of patterns?

And if there are patterns and if there is no random, there perhaps people who use stats of patterns can get some winning advantage on the games.

-----------

Never mind any of that, sometimes, often or all of the time it might be best to leave people or some alone with their own opinions.

These things can have no end to them and drag on for ever.

Let people be can be both ways:

2: Don't tell.

= Don't argue.

Maybe that doesn't = Everybody happy or it does, but Who can have it all? Maybe some can?

So long as Be and Let Be doesn't hurt in some way one side or the other that might at least mean peace.

------------

But Who am I to say those things?, If it didn't bother me, I would not be posting this.

"Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

Tx
United States
Member #4570
May 4, 2004
5180 Posts
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

Is random the same as random or is there something as more random and or less random, if the drawings are "random" why have pre-draws and have changes of machines and ball sets, Does doing those things make draws more random? Does that means that the drawings are not random to start with and that they need some "help" so they can be made random?

The spins inside the drum are not enough to make the drawings random? If that is not enough then nothing would be enough, perhaps if that is true then there is no such thing as random.

Are "Random Patterns" a valid notion? If there is something as "Random Patterns" then it might mean that "Random" has patterns, if so, then can there be really such as things are random? Isn't "random" a lack of patterns?

And if there are patterns and if there is no random, there perhaps people who use stats of patterns can get some winning advantage on the games.

-----------

Never mind any of that, sometimes, often or all of the time it might be best to leave people or some alone with their own opinions.

These things can have no end to them and drag on for ever.

Let people be can be both ways:

2: Don't tell.

= Don't argue.

Maybe that doesn't = Everybody happy or it does, but Who can have it all? Maybe some can?

So long as Be and Let Be doesn't hurt in some way one side or the other that might at least mean peace.

------------

But Who am I to say those things?, If it didn't bother me, I would not be posting this.

I was curious as to why He was angry and "Was Fooled By Randomness".

Maybe he was "Fooled By Randomness" because he thought that he could not get an advantage on the game and that made him angry?

Or Maybe because he is making too much money playing and winning the Pa pick 3 game?

Talk about having a "Gold Mine" of a game!

Who cares about "random" when you have a game like this?

Lucky Cats!

Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Midday Winning Numbers
Draw Date       Results
Mon, Aug 16, 2010    2-2-9
Sun, Aug 15, 2010    7-7-8
Sat, Aug 14, 2010    8-8-4
Fri, Aug 13, 2010    1-1-4
Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-4-4
Wed, Aug 11, 2010    5-5-3
Tue, Aug 10, 2010    5-0-0
Mon, Aug 9, 2010    5-2-0 Bad Draw, Shame On "Random"!
Sun, Aug 8, 2010    2-2-1
Sat, Aug 7, 2010    6-0-6
---------------
Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Evening Winning Numbers
Draw Date       Results
Mon, Aug 16, 2010    6-5-6
Sun, Aug 15, 2010    0-0-6
Sat, Aug 14, 2010    3-9-3
Fri, Aug 13, 2010    6-9-8
Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-7-9
Wed, Aug 11, 2010    8-6-8
Tue, Aug 10, 2010    7-8-2
Mon, Aug 9, 2010    9-0-9
Sun, Aug 8, 2010    8-7-1
Sat, Aug 7, 2010    5-3-9
------------

I now clearly see what you mean when you say, that "Random" doesn't let you gain an advantage on the lottery games.

Counting the money that you won is making you very tired and angry at the game and at "random".

Maybe all that Gold is way too heavy?

"Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

Tx
United States
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May 4, 2004
5180 Posts
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 9:58 pm - IP Logged

I was curious as to why He was angry and "Was Fooled By Randomness".

Maybe he was "Fooled By Randomness" because he thought that he could not get an advantage on the game and that made him angry?

Or Maybe because he is making too much money playing and winning the Pa pick 3 game?

Talk about having a "Gold Mine" of a game!

Who cares about "random" when you have a game like this?

Lucky Cats!

Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Midday Winning Numbers
Draw Date       Results
Mon, Aug 16, 2010    2-2-9
Sun, Aug 15, 2010    7-7-8
Sat, Aug 14, 2010    8-8-4
Fri, Aug 13, 2010    1-1-4
Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-4-4
Wed, Aug 11, 2010    5-5-3
Tue, Aug 10, 2010    5-0-0
Mon, Aug 9, 2010    5-2-0 Bad Draw, Shame On "Random"!
Sun, Aug 8, 2010    2-2-1
Sat, Aug 7, 2010    6-0-6
---------------
Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Evening Winning Numbers
Draw Date       Results
Mon, Aug 16, 2010    6-5-6
Sun, Aug 15, 2010    0-0-6
Sat, Aug 14, 2010    3-9-3
Fri, Aug 13, 2010    6-9-8
Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-7-9
Wed, Aug 11, 2010    8-6-8
Tue, Aug 10, 2010    7-8-2
Mon, Aug 9, 2010    9-0-9
Sun, Aug 8, 2010    8-7-1
Sat, Aug 7, 2010    5-3-9
------------

I now clearly see what you mean when you say, that "Random" doesn't let you gain an advantage on the lottery games.

Counting the money that you won is making you very tired and angry at the game and at "random".

Maybe all that Gold is way too heavy?

Why am I "Cursed" with being able to "See" what others don't?

And you say that there are no winning patterns on the histories of the past draws?

Maybe I took too many "Magic" mushrooms and I am dreaming all of these?

(Sorry, I am Clean, I am a good boy (More or less, but maybe less) I don't do any such things, not those anyway.)

I don't ingest Kaka of any kind whatsoever nor smoke nor anything else.

Nor should anybody else!

"Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

United States
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March 13, 2008
4322 Posts
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

Why am I "Cursed" with being able to "See" what others don't?

And you say that there are no winning patterns on the histories of the past draws?

Maybe I took too many "Magic" mushrooms and I am dreaming all of these?

(Sorry, I am Clean, I am a good boy (More or less, but maybe less) I don't do any such things, not those anyway.)

I don't ingest Kaka of any kind whatsoever nor smoke nor anything else.

Nor should anybody else!

LANTERN

I Believe you 100%, Thumbs UP

RL

....

Tx
United States
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May 4, 2004
5180 Posts
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 Posted: August 16, 2010, 10:26 pm - IP Logged

LANTERN

I Believe you 100%, Thumbs UP

RL

RL

I wonder what Jimmy will now say?

Maybe that it is a "Freak Of Nature" and that those things really don't happen?

That there is of course a very extreme happening, but regardless there are always patterns of some kind or another, just not very often so obvious and so good as that either, patterns of some kind will always be there just maybe not this good, so very often anyway, but study can always uncover something even if it is just a very small advantage.

Perhaps there are flexible limits to predictability and also to unpredictability, but to those who are better than me, there would be fewer unpredictability limitations, the better at this kind of thing that you are the smaller or fewer that the unpredictability limits would be.

I myself am not so good.

I have trouble counting up to 10, I have to use both all fingers and toes and then I always come up with 20 instead of just 10

"Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

Tx
United States
Member #4570
May 4, 2004
5180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 16, 2010, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

I was curious as to why He was angry and "Was Fooled By Randomness".

Maybe he was "Fooled By Randomness" because he thought that he could not get an advantage on the game and that made him angry?

Or Maybe because he is making too much money playing and winning the Pa pick 3 game?

Talk about having a "Gold Mine" of a game!

Who cares about "random" when you have a game like this?

Lucky Cats!

Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Midday Winning Numbers
Draw Date       Results
Mon, Aug 16, 2010    2-2-9
Sun, Aug 15, 2010    7-7-8
Sat, Aug 14, 2010    8-8-4
Fri, Aug 13, 2010    1-1-4
Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-4-4
Wed, Aug 11, 2010    5-5-3
Tue, Aug 10, 2010    5-0-0
Mon, Aug 9, 2010    5-2-0 Bad Draw, Shame On "Random"!
Sun, Aug 8, 2010    2-2-1
Sat, Aug 7, 2010    6-0-6
---------------
Pennsylvania (PA) Lottery Daily Number Evening Winning Numbers
Draw Date       Results
Mon, Aug 16, 2010    6-5-6
Sun, Aug 15, 2010    0-0-6
Sat, Aug 14, 2010    3-9-3
Fri, Aug 13, 2010    6-9-8
Thu, Aug 12, 2010    9-7-9
Wed, Aug 11, 2010    8-6-8
Tue, Aug 10, 2010    7-8-2
Mon, Aug 9, 2010    9-0-9
Sun, Aug 8, 2010    8-7-1
Sat, Aug 7, 2010    5-3-9
------------

I now clearly see what you mean when you say, that "Random" doesn't let you gain an advantage on the lottery games.

Counting the money that you won is making you very tired and angry at the game and at "random".

Maybe all that Gold is way too heavy?

A word of warning, while nothing is for sure either way it has before appeared as if often after posts such as that one are made. right away or soon enough there-after patterns stop being-change so if now you play those patterns you might still win or maybe you won't, but it should be unlikely that they would continue for-ever, that pattern trend leads me right now to believe that that might be a computer or some other kind of RNG that produced it, I of course might be wrong, but even if it is a RNG of some kind, it might any-time stop being (The pattern) and what better time for it to change than some-time after such a public post is made, so maybe either right away or soon there after, but Who knows? I sure don't? But I thought that I would warn you just in case.

But that could mean money lost if the pattern is not played and if it keeps on going, but what a risk, it is your money not mine so you take the risk or not, up to you.

Good Luck!

"Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

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