Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 4, 2016, 9:25 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

Page 5 of 20
42
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 12, 2010, 4:16 pm - IP Logged
    Avatar
    Houston
    United States
    Member #62319
    June 24, 2008
    242 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: August 12, 2010, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

    Mega-ThinkTank,

    Often, when people find themselves unable to defend their position, rather than either admit it, or keep quiet, they strike out with personal attacks or claims of prejudice.  You shouldn't take this so personally.  You are not alone.  I have a friend with a college degree who got so confused over this issue that he actually agreed to exchange 10 Pick-3 tickets numbered [000-111-222-333-444-555-666-777-888-999] for seven of his specification that he thought were more random and more likely to hit.  He gulped and laughed when I reminded him that he was paying $10 for seven tickets that he could buy at the store himself for $7, but he still insisted that a ticket like, say, 327, was more likely to win than 222.  All you needed to say in response to my question was, "I haven't kept track, and anyway, I don't care.  I'm here to Hit The Jackpot, and I'm willing to pay for the chance."

    It's been quite a while since I read Taleb's FBR and I can't remember if he even mentioned lotteries.  Actually, you might get more out of another book of his, The Black Swan.

    Don't beat up on yourself, and...

    Don't worry, be happy!

    --Jimmy4164

    Jim,

    Trust me, I do not feel any lack of credibility with my method. I'd stack my method up against anything Nicolos Taleb (or you for that matter) have to say about lottery numbers. You're talking to a real thoroughbred player. A real student of the game.....there's only a few of us here, and with the gut to call you out on your rambling about lottery numbers, which you clearly at a amatuer stage.

    I don't deal with Pick 3 and 4. I deal with major jackpots, the 6/56 games; Mega Million. The thing with you is your attitude or some ill-fate crusade to cast doubt on the credibility of the games. I gave you a clue how to approach the lottery; you have to lose the mindset of the common sensible approach, i.e. statistical analysis, probabilities and the like. 

    If it's common sense to stay away from a bad area. I'm telling to you go deep into the heart of that bad area and there, you'll hold the balance of power in that bad area. That's the kind of high I.Q. you need dealing with the lottery. 

    Just to get a clue what I'm talking about here, you'd need to take a whole year of past lottery numbers to see a clear pattern. Sometimes you have go back a little further than that. Then you locate the patterns in 3 sequencial steps, adjoined by numbers that are "lose" or no connection with the patterned numbers. It takes time and skills to have a trained eye to see that. Those lose numbers are probably the biggest stumbling block with most players and force them to quit or give up on it. That's the design of the game ---- the "hook" to lead the mind to captivity while draining you out of your money.

    That just one aspect of the game though. You'll also have to deal with getting the right number group. RJOH have a system where A= 0-19, B=20-29 and so forth. I believe that's as good as the human mind can get among the members of Lottery Post. However, I have a method that's lightyears ahead of that stone age filtering, which gives me 5 sets and a gaurantee winner.

    You see my approach, Jimmy? Its not just a one method fits all. You have to have a method to deal with one aspect and then another method to deal with another aspect and so on. I deal with 3 different methods and it took me more than 15 years to see and learn that.

    You know, getting that "most beautiful girl in the world" is no simple thing, buddy.


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 12, 2010, 5:00 pm - IP Logged

      Jim,

      Trust me, I do not feel any lack of credibility with my method. I'd stack my method up against anything Nicolos Taleb (or you for that matter) have to say about lottery numbers. You're talking to a real thoroughbred player. A real student of the game.....there's only a few of us here, and with the gut to call you out on your rambling about lottery numbers, which you clearly at a amatuer stage.

      I don't deal with Pick 3 and 4. I deal with major jackpots, the 6/56 games; Mega Million. The thing with you is your attitude or some ill-fate crusade to cast doubt on the credibility of the games. I gave you a clue how to approach the lottery; you have to lose the mindset of the common sensible approach, i.e. statistical analysis, probabilities and the like. 

      If it's common sense to stay away from a bad area. I'm telling to you go deep into the heart of that bad area and there, you'll hold the balance of power in that bad area. That's the kind of high I.Q. you need dealing with the lottery. 

      Just to get a clue what I'm talking about here, you'd need to take a whole year of past lottery numbers to see a clear pattern. Sometimes you have go back a little further than that. Then you locate the patterns in 3 sequencial steps, adjoined by numbers that are "lose" or no connection with the patterned numbers. It takes time and skills to have a trained eye to see that. Those lose numbers are probably the biggest stumbling block with most players and force them to quit or give up on it. That's the design of the game ---- the "hook" to lead the mind to captivity while draining you out of your money.

      That just one aspect of the game though. You'll also have to deal with getting the right number group. RJOH have a system where A= 0-19, B=20-29 and so forth. I believe that's as good as the human mind can get among the members of Lottery Post. However, I have a method that's lightyears ahead of that stone age filtering, which gives me 5 sets and a gaurantee winner.

      You see my approach, Jimmy? Its not just a one method fits all. You have to have a method to deal with one aspect and then another method to deal with another aspect and so on. I deal with 3 different methods and it took me more than 15 years to see and learn that.

      You know, getting that "most beautiful girl in the world" is no simple thing, buddy.

      Mega-ThinkTank,

      I'm still waiting for someone to explain what causes the patterns you perceive in the results, assuming there are patterns other than RANDOM NOISE.  I happen to know from a lot of experience that a Neural Network can be Trained to predict the next event in a sequence with Incredible Precision, as long as the predictions are made exclusively within the data that was used to optimize the parameters.  I suspect you might be experiencing some analogy to this, causing you to believe you are CLOSE to uncovering the Mother Lode!

      I will not be impressed here until someone presents Backtests of system performance on historical data that clearly demonstrate a profit over several years.  You and others claim you are still working and collaborating on your systems.  Wouldn't it be better to wait until you succeed, before making claims?  If I were you, and I DID succeed(HAD succeeded?) I surely wouldn't be here talking about; I'd be out looking for investors!

      The simple questions I would like to see answered are stated in this recent post:

      http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1738469

       

      --Jimmy4164

        Avatar
        Houston
        United States
        Member #62319
        June 24, 2008
        242 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 12, 2010, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

        By the way Jim, I wonder if you're an American and residing in America? If not, great..... I want to ask you to give me the numbers to ANY lottery game ( 6/56 etc) in your country. However, don't give me the whole numbers, just the "end" numbers. Example...

        12-20-24-32-56   

         

        Instead, just give me 2-0-4-2-6 (those are the end number to each of the whole numbers)

         

        Give me that and I will use my method and produce 5 sets with a gaurantee winner. This will put to rest the nonsense by Nicolos Taleb and his intellectual follower, you sir.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19823 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 12, 2010, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

          By the way Jim, I wonder if you're an American and residing in America? If not, great..... I want to ask you to give me the numbers to ANY lottery game ( 6/56 etc) in your country. However, don't give me the whole numbers, just the "end" numbers. Example...

          12-20-24-32-56   

           

          Instead, just give me 2-0-4-2-6 (those are the end number to each of the whole numbers)

           

          Give me that and I will use my method and produce 5 sets with a gaurantee winner. This will put to rest the nonsense by Nicolos Taleb and his intellectual follower, you sir.

          The last MM winning numbers were 02 14 26 50 56 +12.

          Using 2 4 6 0 6, can you pick five combinations that will have a winner for Friday's drawing?

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

            United States
            Member #59354
            March 13, 2008
            3964 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 12, 2010, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

            Jimmy

             

            I was way ahead of your man, I watched the video and was telling people this before 2003.  

            When the banks started handing out 95% plus on home mortgages I was already screeming.

            When they went to 100% I held out a little longer and then when they went to 125% I sold

            everything.  Anyone who knows anything about banking and how they deposit the mortgage

            like cash had to know what was comming.  When they started financing the equity before it

            became equity I knew it was soon to come.  Just what this has to do with system players or

            randomness escapes me.   Everything mentioned in the interview was as plain as the nose 

            on a face.  Unless people are so caught up in making money that they fail to notice what is

            going on around them and miss all the signs.   I know of only a few that play more than the

            cost of lunch at micky-d's on any regular basis. 

             

            "Dumb luck", Skill, no Skill, Maybe God is on my side and seeing I win more than my fair share.

            If randomness alone makes me win more often than is expected than I am a black swan.  All

            this is just another flash in the skillet.  Another way to ponder what they can't come to grips

            with any other way.

             

            My last post to this thread.

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              Avatar
              Houston
              United States
              Member #62319
              June 24, 2008
              242 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 12, 2010, 5:31 pm - IP Logged

              Mega-ThinkTank,

              I'm still waiting for someone to explain what causes the patterns you perceive in the results, assuming there are patterns other than RANDOM NOISE.  I happen to know from a lot of experience that a Neural Network can be Trained to predict the next event in a sequence with Incredible Precision, as long as the predictions are made exclusively within the data that was used to optimize the parameters.  I suspect you might be experiencing some analogy to this, causing you to believe you are CLOSE to uncovering the Mother Lode!

              I will not be impressed here until someone presents Backtests of system performance on historical data that clearly demonstrate a profit over several years.  You and others claim you are still working and collaborating on your systems.  Wouldn't it be better to wait until you succeed, before making claims?  If I were you, and I DID succeed(HAD succeeded?) I surely wouldn't be here talking about; I'd be out looking for investors!

              The simple questions I would like to see answered are stated in this recent post:

              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1738469

               

              --Jimmy4164

              I will answer your question but slow down, Jimmy. I came out in my first post and stated that I haven't won a major jackpot. I didn't say I never won anything (and i have) but let's move on with your question.

              What Causes The Patterns

               

              Patterns are realized by connecting numbers through "consecutive" numbering, which begin after locating the starting point (two consecutive numbers that anchors the next 3 sequencial patterns). A pattern are consistenly connected until it breaks off with a lose number or a non-connecting number. After that, there's a semi starting point that exacts one of the Anchor numbers and leads in the 2nd phase of the sequencial pattern. And again for the 3rd and it breaks off and heads for the next starting point to start the next 3 sequencial patterns again and again and again..... that is the Matrix in its' essense.

              I refuse to get any more specific than that. Half of the masses here will not understand it unless I actually reveal my method to them which I won't do because of their stubborness and ignorance towards me.

               

              Last thing, If say, Michael Jordan or Larry Bird was to tell you that they will be an NBA Superstar while still teenagers, you'd probably tell them, "I don't believe it," just like you doubt me because I didn't win a major jackpot yet. That still doesn't mean they didn't have the knowledge and skills to get there. It was still a matter of time.

                Avatar
                Houston
                United States
                Member #62319
                June 24, 2008
                242 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: August 12, 2010, 5:41 pm - IP Logged

                The last MM winning numbers were 02 14 26 50 56 +12.

                Using 2 4 6 0 6, can you pick five combinations that will have a winner for Friday's drawing?

                Hello Rjoh,

                 

                No. I would first have to work my method to get the winning numbers and then I do the last digit method to get an accurate number group. If my method throw off the numbers by one number, it would throw off the number group as well.

                I just wanted to prove to Jim that my methods are legit and it works and that Nicolos Taleb has an amatuer way of looking at lottery numbers or randomness for that matter.

                 

                If you give me the last digits of a number already played, I can run it through my method and get the actual winning number with just the end numbers. Its the best I can show without revealing much, how legitimate and credible my method is.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19823 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: August 12, 2010, 6:30 pm - IP Logged

                  Hello Rjoh,

                   

                  No. I would first have to work my method to get the winning numbers and then I do the last digit method to get an accurate number group. If my method throw off the numbers by one number, it would throw off the number group as well.

                  I just wanted to prove to Jim that my methods are legit and it works and that Nicolos Taleb has an amatuer way of looking at lottery numbers or randomness for that matter.

                   

                  If you give me the last digits of a number already played, I can run it through my method and get the actual winning number with just the end numbers. Its the best I can show without revealing much, how legitimate and credible my method is.

                  If you give me the last digits of a number already played, I can run it through my method and get the actual winning number with just the end numbers. Its the best I can show without revealing much, how legitimate and credible my method is.

                  Get the winning numbers of what?  Are you saying the numbers will be winners but knowing where or what they won would reveal too much about your method?

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Avatar
                    Houston
                    United States
                    Member #62319
                    June 24, 2008
                    242 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: August 12, 2010, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

                    If you give me the last digits of a number already played, I can run it through my method and get the actual winning number with just the end numbers. Its the best I can show without revealing much, how legitimate and credible my method is.

                    Get the winning numbers of what?  Are you saying the numbers will be winners but knowing where or what they won would reveal too much about your method?

                    What I meant is if you give me a past winning numbers for the Mega Million game or the Powerball with just the end numbers, I can use my method to produce the actual "whole numbers." That's what I meant. I can't keep being more specific, man or I'll reveal too much of my method.

                      truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                      Michigan
                      United States
                      Member #22395
                      September 24, 2005
                      1583 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: August 12, 2010, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

                      What I meant is if you give me a past winning numbers for the Mega Million game or the Powerball with just the end numbers, I can use my method to produce the actual "whole numbers." That's what I meant. I can't keep being more specific, man or I'll reveal too much of my method.

                      OK...here are one each.

                       

                      MM

                      0 1 0 7 6   2

                       

                      PB

                      9 0 0 7 7   9

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19823 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: August 12, 2010, 11:51 pm - IP Logged

                        OK...here are one each.

                         

                        MM

                        0 1 0 7 6   2

                         

                        PB

                        9 0 0 7 7   9

                        MM
                        05/14/10 - 20 21 40 47 56    +12

                        PB
                        05/22/10 - 19 20 40 47 57    +29

                        It's just a simple search that any lottery program can do, especially with the 2 zeros in each line.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       


                          United States
                          Member #93947
                          July 10, 2010
                          2180 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 13, 2010, 12:03 am - IP Logged

                          "I see says the blind man"

                          "It definitely does NOT support the assertion of any sort of cause and effect relationship among any of the things we're discussing here!"

                          Because the same probability applies had the poll asked how many times should 811 or any other three digit number be drawn in the last 33 years and based on some of the replies, I wrong assumed you were going in that direction.  And I should have known better because of what I was talking about in the other thread.

                          How many three digit numbers repeated within the next three drawings?

                          Stack47,

                          Sorry, I'm running behind upgrading the program to scan the PA P-3 results file with additional queries.  I decided to generalize it so I can quickly get the answer to: How many times did a P3 number match the previous winning number of N days ago.  My original programs to find the 1 and 2 day ago events are getting too "dirty."

                          In the meantime, how about a conjecture and an exercise?

                          We know that over the 33+ years of the data, 14 matches were found for 1 day ago,

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736396

                          and  16 matches for 2 days ago:

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736549

                          Theoretically, I said that these results are reasonable given that probability suggests they are members of a distribution with a mean of 11.6 and a Std. Dev. of 3.3

                          I think that when the program is finished, it will find 11.6 [sd 3.3] (8-16) matches for three(3) days ago as well.  Do you agree?

                          Now for your question.

                          "How many three digit numbers repeated within the next three drawings?"

                          Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you want to know how many times did 3 digit numbers repeat on AT LEAST ONE of the three days FOLLOWING their selection.  In other words, if we choose Yesterday's Winner, how many times will it repeat AT LEAST ONCE  Today, Tomorrow, OR the Next Day?  Correct?

                          Assuming this is your question, which Ball Park do you think the answer will be in:

                          12,   24,   or 36 ?

                           

                          --Jimmy4164

                            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                            Michigan
                            United States
                            Member #22395
                            September 24, 2005
                            1583 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 13, 2010, 12:24 am - IP Logged

                            MM
                            05/14/10 - 20 21 40 47 56    +12

                            PB
                            05/22/10 - 19 20 40 47 57    +29

                            It's just a simple search that any lottery program can do, especially with the 2 zeros in each line.

                            Hehe...that's true, I wanted to see what he was going to do.

                              Avatar
                              Houston
                              United States
                              Member #62319
                              June 24, 2008
                              242 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 13, 2010, 1:00 am - IP Logged

                              OK...here are one each.

                               

                              MM

                              0 1 0 7 6   2

                               

                              PB

                              9 0 0 7 7   9

                              Good try, Critc. This is why I wanted someone from a foreign country to give me their end numbers and Ill produced the winning "whole numbers." With the American games ( Mega and PwrBall) of course anyone can do a simply search (like RJOH said) and get the numbers.

                               

                              What Im trying to prove is how credible my method is......I tell y'all what...... go back through the years, I dont care what year, and get me another 5 digits end number and I will stay on line and try to produce my 5 number set with a gaurantee winner before someone try to look it up. I swear to you I will not go through any searches to find the numbers but I will produce the winning whole numbers.

                                 
                                Page 5 of 20