Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 19, 2017, 8:41 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Fooled by Randomness

Topic closed. 297 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

Page 6 of 20
42
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
Houston
United States
Member #62319
June 24, 2008
242 Posts
Offline
Posted: August 13, 2010, 1:09 am - IP Logged

Stack47,

Sorry, I'm running behind upgrading the program to scan the PA P-3 results file with additional queries.  I decided to generalize it so I can quickly get the answer to: How many times did a P3 number match the previous winning number of N days ago.  My original programs to find the 1 and 2 day ago events are getting too "dirty."

In the meantime, how about a conjecture and an exercise?

We know that over the 33+ years of the data, 14 matches were found for 1 day ago,

http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736396

and  16 matches for 2 days ago:

http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736549

Theoretically, I said that these results are reasonable given that probability suggests they are members of a distribution with a mean of 11.6 and a Std. Dev. of 3.3

I think that when the program is finished, it will find 11.6 [sd 3.3] (8-16) matches for three(3) days ago as well.  Do you agree?

Now for your question.

"How many three digit numbers repeated within the next three drawings?"

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you want to know how many times did 3 digit numbers repeat on AT LEAST ONE of the three days FOLLOWING their selection.  In other words, if we choose Yesterday's Winner, how many times will it repeat AT LEAST ONCE  Today, Tomorrow, OR the Next Day?  Correct?

Assuming this is your question, which Ball Park do you think the answer will be in:

12,   24,   or 36 ?

 

--Jimmy4164

See, this! This is what I'm talking about. I will not lie to you people but it's stuff like this what I call, ' the lottery hooking the minds to captivity.' Why do you guys continue to go down the same tried road and that lead to nowhere. Why??

The design of the games are modeled with the anticipation that you would use probabilities, statistical analysis, repeating numbers etc. If you guys can just TRUST ME on this: You will NOT win that way.

You gotta think outside of the box. You gotta approach the game in differently from common sense approaches ----- it's like the blind leading the blind and I hate to see this level of naivette lining up the pockets of lottery officials.

 

Wow man, just wow.

    Avatar
    Houston
    United States
    Member #62319
    June 24, 2008
    242 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: August 13, 2010, 1:24 am - IP Logged

    Im stepping off..... gotta grab some food now.


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 13, 2010, 1:36 am - IP Logged

      See, this! This is what I'm talking about. I will not lie to you people but it's stuff like this what I call, ' the lottery hooking the minds to captivity.' Why do you guys continue to go down the same tried road and that lead to nowhere. Why??

      The design of the games are modeled with the anticipation that you would use probabilities, statistical analysis, repeating numbers etc. If you guys can just TRUST ME on this: You will NOT win that way.

      You gotta think outside of the box. You gotta approach the game in differently from common sense approaches ----- it's like the blind leading the blind and I hate to see this level of naivette lining up the pockets of lottery officials.

       

      Wow man, just wow.

      You actually seem to be under the illusion that I believe I can win more money in the lotteries than the average person.  No, it can't be  --  could you please translate your above post into English that more English speaking people can understand?

      In addition, why not prove the power of your secret method by taking the "end digits" of Wednesday's Powerball Drawing and tell us what Saturday's winning set is going to be?  We would all be impressed, and you would still keep your method secret.


        United States
        Member #93947
        July 10, 2010
        2180 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 13, 2010, 2:13 am - IP Logged

        I will answer your question but slow down, Jimmy. I came out in my first post and stated that I haven't won a major jackpot. I didn't say I never won anything (and i have) but let's move on with your question.

        What Causes The Patterns

         

        Patterns are realized by connecting numbers through "consecutive" numbering, which begin after locating the starting point (two consecutive numbers that anchors the next 3 sequencial patterns). A pattern are consistenly connected until it breaks off with a lose number or a non-connecting number. After that, there's a semi starting point that exacts one of the Anchor numbers and leads in the 2nd phase of the sequencial pattern. And again for the 3rd and it breaks off and heads for the next starting point to start the next 3 sequencial patterns again and again and again..... that is the Matrix in its' essense.

        I refuse to get any more specific than that. Half of the masses here will not understand it unless I actually reveal my method to them which I won't do because of their stubborness and ignorance towards me.

         

        Last thing, If say, Michael Jordan or Larry Bird was to tell you that they will be an NBA Superstar while still teenagers, you'd probably tell them, "I don't believe it," just like you doubt me because I didn't win a major jackpot yet. That still doesn't mean they didn't have the knowledge and skills to get there. It was still a matter of time.

        I was hopeful when you said...

        "What Causes The Patterns"

        But it was short lived! 

        "Patterns are realized..."

        You might just as well have said, "These Patterns are caused by patterns..."

        Do you know the meaning of the word "cause?"

        I feel the presence of more than one Alter Ego here...

          Avatar
          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
          7343 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 13, 2010, 10:59 am - IP Logged

          Stack47,

          Sorry, I'm running behind upgrading the program to scan the PA P-3 results file with additional queries.  I decided to generalize it so I can quickly get the answer to: How many times did a P3 number match the previous winning number of N days ago.  My original programs to find the 1 and 2 day ago events are getting too "dirty."

          In the meantime, how about a conjecture and an exercise?

          We know that over the 33+ years of the data, 14 matches were found for 1 day ago,

          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736396

          and  16 matches for 2 days ago:

          http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736549

          Theoretically, I said that these results are reasonable given that probability suggests they are members of a distribution with a mean of 11.6 and a Std. Dev. of 3.3

          I think that when the program is finished, it will find 11.6 [sd 3.3] (8-16) matches for three(3) days ago as well.  Do you agree?

          Now for your question.

          "How many three digit numbers repeated within the next three drawings?"

          Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you want to know how many times did 3 digit numbers repeat on AT LEAST ONE of the three days FOLLOWING their selection.  In other words, if we choose Yesterday's Winner, how many times will it repeat AT LEAST ONCE  Today, Tomorrow, OR the Next Day?  Correct?

          Assuming this is your question, which Ball Park do you think the answer will be in:

          12,   24,   or 36 ?

           

          --Jimmy4164

          Yep, we're still on the same page!

          "Assuming this is your question, which Ball Park do you think the answer will be in:"

          Since the same probability exists for a repeat and a one drawing skip, the answer has to be at least 12 for two drawing skips.


            United States
            Member #93947
            July 10, 2010
            2180 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 13, 2010, 11:45 am - IP Logged

            Yep, we're still on the same page!

            "Assuming this is your question, which Ball Park do you think the answer will be in:"

            Since the same probability exists for a repeat and a one drawing skip, the answer has to be at least 12 for two drawing skips.

            OK, I agree with 12 when you assume the 3rd day match will be the same test as the 1 and 2 day matches we have already verified.  Be careful when you say "at least 12".  A safer answer would be 11.6 with a Std. Dev. of 3.3. Smiley

            Take another look at the alternative scenario I described at the end of my last post. There, I was asking how many times we should see situations where there is a match on AT LEAST ONE of the three days following the selected number.  Smiley

              Avatar
              Houston
              United States
              Member #62319
              June 24, 2008
              242 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 13, 2010, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

              I was hopeful when you said...

              "What Causes The Patterns"

              But it was short lived! 

              "Patterns are realized..."

              You might just as well have said, "These Patterns are caused by patterns..."

              Do you know the meaning of the word "cause?"

              I feel the presence of more than one Alter Ego here...

              No Jim, you're wasn't hopeful. You already made up your mind that everyone else is wrong and you the only one right. And just like you falsely described me as attacking someone when can't defend my position is the exact opposite. It's you that does the attacking when others defend their positions quite well. I suppose I insulted your intelligence when I humbly tried to lecture you about the kind of approaches you need to play jackpot games.

              I should know better next time. Jimmy is not to be lectured, folks. His Highness is not to be insulted. His Majestic demand you honor him ------ just ask Stack.

               

               

              (Do you know the meaning of the word, "Narcissist?")

                Avatar
                New York,
                Panama
                Member #73078
                April 4, 2009
                3490 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: August 13, 2010, 2:24 pm - IP Logged

                Hopefully i know where you are going here. And I have to say that lotteries are not completely rrandom. This is tthe reason why officials do many pre and post draws. With Tru randomness (word?) every number should show within in its curcumfrence of time but this doesnt happen much. Non the less, you are smarter than the lottery if you can classify numbers the proper way. It doesnt take me much to hit the pick 3 or 4 because certain numbers statitically are more likely to come out way more than others.

                I Agree!I do agree with this statement..It is the same with me. With Pick 3 and Pick 4. Now with  the pick 5 or the Mega! hmmm I wonder if it would work?hhmm!!

                forget what "they" say about youWhat you say about you?...

                Now, does it count??

                 

                 

                *Jr$ina


                  United States
                  Member #93947
                  July 10, 2010
                  2180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: August 13, 2010, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

                  Mega-ThinkTank,

                  I'm still waiting for someone to explain what causes the patterns you perceive in the results, assuming there are patterns other than RANDOM NOISE.  I happen to know from a lot of experience that a Neural Network can be Trained to predict the next event in a sequence with Incredible Precision, as long as the predictions are made exclusively within the data that was used to optimize the parameters.  I suspect you might be experiencing some analogy to this, causing you to believe you are CLOSE to uncovering the Mother Lode!

                  I will not be impressed here until someone presents Backtests of system performance on historical data that clearly demonstrate a profit over several years.  You and others claim you are still working and collaborating on your systems.  Wouldn't it be better to wait until you succeed, before making claims?  If I were you, and I DID succeed(HAD succeeded?) I surely wouldn't be here talking about; I'd be out looking for investors!

                  The simple questions I would like to see answered are stated in this recent post:

                  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1738469

                   

                  --Jimmy4164

                  Well, Mega-Thinktank,

                  Here is your latest reply, and above is my post that you seem to want to avoid replying to:

                  -----------------------------------

                  No Jim, you're wasn't hopeful. You already made up your mind that everyone else is wrong and you the only one right. And just like you falsely described me as attacking someone when can't defend my position is the exact opposite. It's you that does the attacking when others defend their positions quite well. I suppose I insulted your intelligence when I humbly tried to lecture you about the kind of approaches you need to play jackpot games.

                  I should know better next time. Jimmy is not to be lectured, folks. His Highness is not to be insulted. His Majestic demand you honor him ------ just ask Stack.

                  (Do you know the meaning of the word, "Narcissist?")

                  -----------------------------------

                  I'm not here to engage in childish name calling matches that you apparently would enjoy.  If you made a serious attempt to address my comments and questions above, you might learn something.

                  If you read my earlier posts VERY carefully, you will discover that I am NOT advocating any sort of betting scheme based on the actual Backtests and Statistical Analyses I'm reporting.  The TRUTH is very much to the contrary, which you might understand eventually if you pay attention.

                  I'm waiting now, as are others, for a [hopefully] intelligent response.

                  --Jimmy4164


                    United States
                    Member #93947
                    July 10, 2010
                    2180 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: August 13, 2010, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

                    I Agree!I do agree with this statement..It is the same with me. With Pick 3 and Pick 4. Now with  the pick 5 or the Mega! hmmm I wonder if it would work?hhmm!!

                    jrosina,

                    I had a different take on that posting.

                    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1728517

                    --Jimmy4164

                      Avatar
                      Kentucky
                      United States
                      Member #32652
                      February 14, 2006
                      7343 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: August 14, 2010, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

                      No Jim, you're wasn't hopeful. You already made up your mind that everyone else is wrong and you the only one right. And just like you falsely described me as attacking someone when can't defend my position is the exact opposite. It's you that does the attacking when others defend their positions quite well. I suppose I insulted your intelligence when I humbly tried to lecture you about the kind of approaches you need to play jackpot games.

                      I should know better next time. Jimmy is not to be lectured, folks. His Highness is not to be insulted. His Majestic demand you honor him ------ just ask Stack.

                       

                       

                      (Do you know the meaning of the word, "Narcissist?")

                      "I suppose I insulted your intelligence when I humbly tried to lecture you about the kind of approaches you need to play jackpot games."

                      When somebody asks me how many times a three digit number should be drawn in 12,000 drawings, I'm positive they're talking about a pick-3 game. So while some of your jackpot game approaches may be useful, why not wait until we know exactly where Jim is going?

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19900 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: August 14, 2010, 1:45 pm - IP Logged

                        "I suppose I insulted your intelligence when I humbly tried to lecture you about the kind of approaches you need to play jackpot games."

                        When somebody asks me how many times a three digit number should be drawn in 12,000 drawings, I'm positive they're talking about a pick-3 game. So while some of your jackpot game approaches may be useful, why not wait until we know exactly where Jim is going?

                        If Jim was going anywhere, he should be there by now.  Magic-ThinkTank did the same thing a few months ago with his thread "Not enough thoroughbred players around here..." http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/212159

                        Some posters like to keep others hanging on hoping they will reveal a little gem that doesn't exist.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          Avatar
                          Houston
                          United States
                          Member #62319
                          June 24, 2008
                          242 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 14, 2010, 5:26 pm - IP Logged

                          If Jim was going anywhere, he should be there by now.  Magic-ThinkTank did the same thing a few months ago with his thread "Not enough thoroughbred players around here..." http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/212159

                          Some posters like to keep others hanging on hoping they will reveal a little gem that doesn't exist.

                          Rjoh,

                          It wasn't necessary to bring that up. I wished those days never existed. I tried in vain to get Todd to delete the entire crappy post and he whipped me a new one. I learn well though. I won't be putting out posts with intelligence approaches to the game because the atmosphere can get pretty hostile and toxic. People wanna believe your knowledge of expertise is not much greater than theirs and the minute they're convinced how amatuer their game knowledge is, it become offensive to them to see you running with all that knowledge, so they go after you ----- hound your butt from every which way.

                           

                          Like I said, I learned well.

                            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                            Michigan
                            United States
                            Member #22395
                            September 24, 2005
                            1583 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 14, 2010, 5:29 pm - IP Logged

                            I may be completely off-track but I believe jimmy is presenting an amateur statistics course using real data from the PA lottery.  I don't think he is trying to say there is an actual winning system, nor does he have one.  I am hoping he continues on this adventure with workouts for various lottery systems.  Workouts that would show, had you applied TTT for instance to the PA lottery, tickets bought, percent of winners and profit or loss.  And I would hope that he continues to show workouts for other systems as well.

                            Mega Think-Tank, on the other hand, leads us to believe that he has a system, not quite perfect yet, that works for JP games.  Based on his posts in this thread and posts in previous threads, he is not about to reveal that system nor is he going to post numbers prior to a draw so we can see it work.  He also thinks that the reason there are so many failures for jackpot players with systems is because they all think alike with slightly different variations.  His cure for that is to think outside the box and claims that is why his system is magnitudes better than others.

                            Jimmy or MTT, if I am not correct, please post a brief summary with corrections.


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 14, 2010, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

                              I may be completely off-track but I believe jimmy is presenting an amateur statistics course using real data from the PA lottery.  I don't think he is trying to say there is an actual winning system, nor does he have one.  I am hoping he continues on this adventure with workouts for various lottery systems.  Workouts that would show, had you applied TTT for instance to the PA lottery, tickets bought, percent of winners and profit or loss.  And I would hope that he continues to show workouts for other systems as well.

                              Mega Think-Tank, on the other hand, leads us to believe that he has a system, not quite perfect yet, that works for JP games.  Based on his posts in this thread and posts in previous threads, he is not about to reveal that system nor is he going to post numbers prior to a draw so we can see it work.  He also thinks that the reason there are so many failures for jackpot players with systems is because they all think alike with slightly different variations.  His cure for that is to think outside the box and claims that is why his system is magnitudes better than others.

                              Jimmy or MTT, if I am not correct, please post a brief summary with corrections.

                              truecritic,

                              I think the above is a pretty fair appraisal of the situation.

                              I'm working right now on a more generalized program to test Pick-3 results.  Once I get the "Buy the Winner of 3 Days Ago" results in a file, I'll arrange the 1, 2, and 3 day results into 3 collumns to shorten the output.  Then, I'll work on the variation discussed with Stack47 which will output the "How many times will the choice 'X' (Yesterday's Winner, TTT Pick, whatever) hit on AT LEAST ONE of the NEXT N DAYS."

                              Eventually, the output may be too much to post.  (Limit?)  I noticed someone in another Forum arranging to share a file with someone using Box.net.  I signed up for the free account.  I need to find out if you can use Box.net without revealing your identity and whether LotteryPost approves of the Links.

                              There is a "method to my madness!"

                              --Jimmy4164

                                 
                                Page 6 of 20