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If you had 10 bucks to bet...

Topic closed. 132 replies. Last post 6 years ago by JADELottery.

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What do you think is the better bet?

1 Play / 10 Draws [ 58 ]  [64.44%]
10 Plays / 1 Draw [ 32 ]  [35.56%]
Total Valid Votes [ 90 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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Posted: April 5, 2011, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

ridge,tiggs has been awondering hows come you and your first wife Maybalenne named your first born pumpi..huh?...

A comment/insult like that can set off another feud like the Hatfields and McCoys. The Ridges and Tiggs.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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    Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:11 pm - IP Logged

    This will be interesing considering we know the Probabilities of winning are the Same.

    Jade

     

    I once read a online article  that showed a very small avantage playing several tickets at one time vs

    one at a time.  I went through the math and came up with the same results so I accepted it as fact.

    This was many years ago and I used the information posted so I could have been mislead in how the

    calculations were made. 

     

    RL

      Win$500Quick's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
      Florida
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      Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

      I will put all $10 on powerball tonight.

      Guess Who's Back?

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

        When you calculate the odds for each condition in a 5/39 game, you get the following:

         tickets or chances per draw  1
         possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
         MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
          5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
          4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
          3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.01
          2/5    1 : 10               59840                    0.10
         __________________________________________________________________
         overall odds are 1 : 8.7                0.1 total expected winners


         tickets or chances per draw  10
         possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
         MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
          5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
          4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
          3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.10
          2/5    1 : 10               59840                    1.04
         ___________________________________________________________________
         overall odds are 1 : 8.7                1.1 total expected winners

        When you add up the expected wins, playing 10 different combinations once adds up to slightly more than playing one combination ten times.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          addai1516's avatar - lib
          Newyork City NY / westland michigan
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          Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

          Neither option fits what I'd do in reality but if I had to choose between the two I'd do 10 in a single draw.  Ten of the same set of numbers on ten separate betslips.

          PartyI Agree!

            addai1516's avatar - lib
            Newyork City NY / westland michigan
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            Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

            A comment/insult like that can set off another feud like the Hatfields and McCoys. The Ridges and Tiggs.

            As far as i know pumpi is a genious he gets little bit more extreme with topics, he got more to say than rest of us !! do you thang bro !!Wink

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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              Posted: April 6, 2011, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

              Jade

               

              I once read a online article  that showed a very small avantage playing several tickets at one time vs

              one at a time.  I went through the math and came up with the same results so I accepted it as fact.

              This was many years ago and I used the information posted so I could have been mislead in how the

              calculations were made. 

               

              RL

              Here is a link to a similar article to the one I mentioned 

               

              http://members.cox.net/mathmistakes/rawdata.htm

               

              RL

                JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
                United States
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                December 7, 2001
                3675 Posts
                Online
                Posted: April 6, 2011, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

                When you calculate the odds for each condition in a 5/39 game, you get the following:

                 tickets or chances per draw  1
                 possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
                 MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
                  5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
                  4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
                  3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.01
                  2/5    1 : 10               59840                    0.10
                 __________________________________________________________________
                 overall odds are 1 : 8.7                0.1 total expected winners


                 tickets or chances per draw  10
                 possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
                 MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
                  5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
                  4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
                  3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.10
                  2/5    1 : 10               59840                    1.04
                 ___________________________________________________________________
                 overall odds are 1 : 8.7                1.1 total expected winners

                When you add up the expected wins, playing 10 different combinations once adds up to slightly more than playing one combination ten times.

                Eeeh-I'm not so sure that's the right way to prove it.

                We'll give this one a little more time for others to reply before we show our proof.

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                  Posted: April 6, 2011, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                  Eeeh-I'm not so sure that's the right way to prove it.

                  We'll give this one a little more time for others to reply before we show our proof.

                  Probably there are better ways to prove it knowing at one end playing one combination the odds of matching 5/5 are 1:575,757 and at the other end playing 575,757 combinations the odds of matching 5/5 are 1:1 or absolute so the closer you are to an absolute win the less likely you will lose same as playing one combinations 575,757 times isn't likely to have the same outcome as playing all 575,757 possible combinations once even if you have 575,757 chances to match 5/5.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

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                    Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

                    10 bucks on 1 draw is sufficient. It simply gives the player a better chance of winning scientifically (not by luck). I'm not sure if this would help someone who is playing MM, PB, or 5 ball games b/c the odds are extreme. But as far as P3 and P4 I am quite sure that it is responsible betting, having tested this out and profited quite a bit from betting this way. Hope this info will help those out who are trying to win more.

                    "Many Strategies|One Game"

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
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                      Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

                      We'd like to clarify a few things about the plays.

                      This about the typical average Joe or Jane lottery picks.

                      Something you'd find if you went in to a store and asked a clerk for 10 buck quick pick on single ticket.

                      It would be very improbable to see every play the same combination ten times over and if you did, that would really raise some alarms about the machine's picking algorithm.

                      Improbable meaning it does not happen to everyone, all the time; common experience shows that when you buy tickets it just does not happen regularly.

                      If you decide to play the same combination ten times over in one draw, that will automatically create an imbalance in the probability of winning in favor of the 1 Play / 10 Draws.

                      Also, this refers to just 10 bucks played only once, not playing 10 bucks again and again as compared to playing 1 combo for 10 draws.

                      Hence the phrase, "If you had 10 bucks..." not "If you had 10 bucks each draw..."

                      In addition, time is not a factor.

                      The time between draws is no different than the time between selecting your play combos.

                      It does not matter if it's days, minutes, or milliseconds between the selections.

                      Finally, prize amounts are not factors; play combinations that match the drawing combinations are.

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

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                        Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:31 pm - IP Logged

                        I understand your question more specific now. I would just bet 1 buck in this case b/c one can get really broke playing this way. Thanks for the clarification Jade

                        "Many Strategies|One Game"


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                          Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

                          When you calculate the odds for each condition in a 5/39 game, you get the following:

                           tickets or chances per draw  1
                           possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
                           MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
                            5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
                            4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
                            3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.01
                            2/5    1 : 10               59840                    0.10
                           __________________________________________________________________
                           overall odds are 1 : 8.7                0.1 total expected winners


                           tickets or chances per draw  10
                           possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
                           MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
                            5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
                            4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
                            3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.10
                            2/5    1 : 10               59840                    1.04
                           ___________________________________________________________________
                           overall odds are 1 : 8.7                1.1 total expected winners

                          When you add up the expected wins, playing 10 different combinations once adds up to slightly more than playing one combination ten times.

                          RJ,

                          I'm afraid the difference  you're seeing here is the result of round off error.  Try outputting 4 or 5 decimal places in the Expected Winners column.

                          --Jimmy4164

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: April 6, 2011, 6:09 pm - IP Logged

                            RJ,

                            I'm afraid the difference  you're seeing here is the result of round off error.  Try outputting 4 or 5 decimal places in the Expected Winners column.

                            --Jimmy4164

                             tickets or chances per draw  10
                             possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
                             MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
                              5/5    1 : 575757           1                    0.0000173684
                              4/5    1 : 3387             170                  0.0029526345
                              3/5    1 : 103              5610                 0.0974369395
                              2/5    1 : 10               59840                1.0393273551
                             _______________________________________________________________________
                             overall odds are 1 : 8.7           1.1397340000 total expected winners

                            True, adding a few more decimal places would change the results and show no differences in the two betting scenarios but usually 2 decimal places is close enough for my purposes.  As JADE said that's not the right way to prove it so I'll wait for The Mathematical Alpha Geek to post his calculations.  Thanks for the head-ups.

                            RJOh

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              Posted: April 7, 2011, 11:19 am - IP Logged

                              We'd like to clarify a few things about the plays.

                              This about the typical average Joe or Jane lottery picks.

                              Something you'd find if you went in to a store and asked a clerk for 10 buck quick pick on single ticket.

                              It would be very improbable to see every play the same combination ten times over and if you did, that would really raise some alarms about the machine's picking algorithm.

                              Improbable meaning it does not happen to everyone, all the time; common experience shows that when you buy tickets it just does not happen regularly.

                              If you decide to play the same combination ten times over in one draw, that will automatically create an imbalance in the probability of winning in favor of the 1 Play / 10 Draws.

                              Also, this refers to just 10 bucks played only once, not playing 10 bucks again and again as compared to playing 1 combo for 10 draws.

                              Hence the phrase, "If you had 10 bucks..." not "If you had 10 bucks each draw..."

                              In addition, time is not a factor.

                              The time between draws is no different than the time between selecting your play combos.

                              It does not matter if it's days, minutes, or milliseconds between the selections.

                              Finally, prize amounts are not factors; play combinations that match the drawing combinations are.

                              Hi JadeLottery:  Interesting thread.  I answered not as a john/jane doe lottery player, which I'm not, applying my own personal approach and reasoning without trying to super-impose it on what john or jane might do.

                              On those occasions when I buy a lottery ticket it's because I have a particular set of numbers I believe stand a better chance of hitting than all the other numbers that might hit. I wouldn't buy them otherwise.  If I bought quickpicks I might choose another way answering your question, but I don't buy quickpicks.

                              The $10 I'm required to spend to stay within your poll choices has to go somewhere, and the likelihood all my chosen numbers are going to hit anyway isn't great, while usually have a good shot at secondary prizes.  Call it false confidence if you like, but multiple secondary prizes from the same set of numbers as opposed to spending $10 on wild shots in the dark seems a better option from my personal perspective and priorities.