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# If you had 10 bucks to bet...

Topic closed. 132 replies. Last post 6 years ago by JADELottery.

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What do you think is the better bet?

 1 Play / 10 Draws [ 58 ] [64.44%] 10 Plays / 1 Draw [ 32 ] [35.56%] Total Valid Votes [ 90 ] Discarded Votes [ 3 ]
Texas
United States
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October 23, 2007
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 Posted: April 5, 2011, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

ridge,tiggs has been awondering hows come you and your first wife Maybalenne named your first born pumpi..huh?...

A comment/insult like that can set off another feud like the Hatfields and McCoys. The Ridges and Tiggs.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR \$2)

United States
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March 13, 2008
3962 Posts
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:11 pm - IP Logged

This will be interesing considering we know the Probabilities of winning are the Same.

I once read a online article  that showed a very small avantage playing several tickets at one time vs

one at a time.  I went through the math and came up with the same results so I accepted it as fact.

This was many years ago and I used the information posted so I could have been mislead in how the

RL

Florida
United States
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August 1, 2009
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

I will put all \$10 on powerball tonight.

Guess Who's Back?

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
19821 Posts
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

When you calculate the odds for each condition in a 5/39 game, you get the following:

tickets or chances per draw  1
possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.01
2/5    1 : 10               59840                    0.10
__________________________________________________________________
overall odds are 1 : 8.7                0.1 total expected winners

tickets or chances per draw  10
possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.10
2/5    1 : 10               59840                    1.04
___________________________________________________________________
overall odds are 1 : 8.7                1.1 total expected winners

When you add up the expected wins, playing 10 different combinations once adds up to slightly more than playing one combination ten times.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Newyork City NY / westland michigan
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June 23, 2010
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

Neither option fits what I'd do in reality but if I had to choose between the two I'd do 10 in a single draw.  Ten of the same set of numbers on ten separate betslips.

Newyork City NY / westland michigan
United States
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June 23, 2010
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

A comment/insult like that can set off another feud like the Hatfields and McCoys. The Ridges and Tiggs.

As far as i know pumpi is a genious he gets little bit more extreme with topics, he got more to say than rest of us !! do you thang bro !!

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
3962 Posts
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

I once read a online article  that showed a very small avantage playing several tickets at one time vs

one at a time.  I went through the math and came up with the same results so I accepted it as fact.

This was many years ago and I used the information posted so I could have been mislead in how the

RL

Here is a link to a similar article to the one I mentioned

http://members.cox.net/mathmistakes/rawdata.htm

RL

The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
Online
 Posted: April 6, 2011, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

When you calculate the odds for each condition in a 5/39 game, you get the following:

tickets or chances per draw  1
possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.01
2/5    1 : 10               59840                    0.10
__________________________________________________________________
overall odds are 1 : 8.7                0.1 total expected winners

tickets or chances per draw  10
possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.10
2/5    1 : 10               59840                    1.04
___________________________________________________________________
overall odds are 1 : 8.7                1.1 total expected winners

When you add up the expected wins, playing 10 different combinations once adds up to slightly more than playing one combination ten times.

Eeeh-I'm not so sure that's the right way to prove it.

We'll give this one a little more time for others to reply before we show our proof.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

mid-Ohio
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March 24, 2001
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

Eeeh-I'm not so sure that's the right way to prove it.

We'll give this one a little more time for others to reply before we show our proof.

Probably there are better ways to prove it knowing at one end playing one combination the odds of matching 5/5 are 1:575,757 and at the other end playing 575,757 combinations the odds of matching 5/5 are 1:1 or absolute so the closer you are to an absolute win the less likely you will lose same as playing one combinations 575,757 times isn't likely to have the same outcome as playing all 575,757 possible combinations once even if you have 575,757 chances to match 5/5.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
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January 5, 2009
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

10 bucks on 1 draw is sufficient. It simply gives the player a better chance of winning scientifically (not by luck). I'm not sure if this would help someone who is playing MM, PB, or 5 ball games b/c the odds are extreme. But as far as P3 and P4 I am quite sure that it is responsible betting, having tested this out and profited quite a bit from betting this way. Hope this info will help those out who are trying to win more.

"Many Strategies|One Game"

The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
Online
 Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

We'd like to clarify a few things about the plays.

This about the typical average Joe or Jane lottery picks.

Something you'd find if you went in to a store and asked a clerk for 10 buck quick pick on single ticket.

It would be very improbable to see every play the same combination ten times over and if you did, that would really raise some alarms about the machine's picking algorithm.

Improbable meaning it does not happen to everyone, all the time; common experience shows that when you buy tickets it just does not happen regularly.

If you decide to play the same combination ten times over in one draw, that will automatically create an imbalance in the probability of winning in favor of the 1 Play / 10 Draws.

Also, this refers to just 10 bucks played only once, not playing 10 bucks again and again as compared to playing 1 combo for 10 draws.

Hence the phrase, "If you had 10 bucks..." not "If you had 10 bucks each draw..."

In addition, time is not a factor.

The time between draws is no different than the time between selecting your play combos.

It does not matter if it's days, minutes, or milliseconds between the selections.

Finally, prize amounts are not factors; play combinations that match the drawing combinations are.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

United States
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January 5, 2009
2122 Posts
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:31 pm - IP Logged

I understand your question more specific now. I would just bet 1 buck in this case b/c one can get really broke playing this way. Thanks for the clarification Jade

"Many Strategies|One Game"

United States
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July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

When you calculate the odds for each condition in a 5/39 game, you get the following:

tickets or chances per draw  1
possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.01
2/5    1 : 10               59840                    0.10
__________________________________________________________________
overall odds are 1 : 8.7                0.1 total expected winners

tickets or chances per draw  10
possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
5/5    1 : 575757           1                        0.00
4/5    1 : 3387             170                      0.00
3/5    1 : 103              5610                     0.10
2/5    1 : 10               59840                    1.04
___________________________________________________________________
overall odds are 1 : 8.7                1.1 total expected winners

When you add up the expected wins, playing 10 different combinations once adds up to slightly more than playing one combination ten times.

RJ,

I'm afraid the difference  you're seeing here is the result of round off error.  Try outputting 4 or 5 decimal places in the Expected Winners column.

--Jimmy4164

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
19821 Posts
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 Posted: April 6, 2011, 6:09 pm - IP Logged

RJ,

I'm afraid the difference  you're seeing here is the result of round off error.  Try outputting 4 or 5 decimal places in the Expected Winners column.

--Jimmy4164

tickets or chances per draw  10
possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS
5/5    1 : 575757           1                    0.0000173684
4/5    1 : 3387             170                  0.0029526345
3/5    1 : 103              5610                 0.0974369395
2/5    1 : 10               59840                1.0393273551
_______________________________________________________________________
overall odds are 1 : 8.7           1.1397340000 total expected winners

True, adding a few more decimal places would change the results and show no differences in the two betting scenarios but usually 2 decimal places is close enough for my purposes.  As JADE said that's not the right way to prove it so I'll wait for The Mathematical Alpha Geek to post his calculations.  Thanks for the head-ups.

RJOh

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
Member #105312
January 29, 2011
435 Posts
Offline
 Posted: April 7, 2011, 11:19 am - IP Logged

We'd like to clarify a few things about the plays.

This about the typical average Joe or Jane lottery picks.

Something you'd find if you went in to a store and asked a clerk for 10 buck quick pick on single ticket.

It would be very improbable to see every play the same combination ten times over and if you did, that would really raise some alarms about the machine's picking algorithm.

Improbable meaning it does not happen to everyone, all the time; common experience shows that when you buy tickets it just does not happen regularly.

If you decide to play the same combination ten times over in one draw, that will automatically create an imbalance in the probability of winning in favor of the 1 Play / 10 Draws.

Also, this refers to just 10 bucks played only once, not playing 10 bucks again and again as compared to playing 1 combo for 10 draws.

Hence the phrase, "If you had 10 bucks..." not "If you had 10 bucks each draw..."

In addition, time is not a factor.

The time between draws is no different than the time between selecting your play combos.

It does not matter if it's days, minutes, or milliseconds between the selections.

Finally, prize amounts are not factors; play combinations that match the drawing combinations are.

Hi JadeLottery:  Interesting thread.  I answered not as a john/jane doe lottery player, which I'm not, applying my own personal approach and reasoning without trying to super-impose it on what john or jane might do.

On those occasions when I buy a lottery ticket it's because I have a particular set of numbers I believe stand a better chance of hitting than all the other numbers that might hit. I wouldn't buy them otherwise.  If I bought quickpicks I might choose another way answering your question, but I don't buy quickpicks.

The \$10 I'm required to spend to stay within your poll choices has to go somewhere, and the likelihood all my chosen numbers are going to hit anyway isn't great, while usually have a good shot at secondary prizes.  Call it false confidence if you like, but multiple secondary prizes from the same set of numbers as opposed to spending \$10 on wild shots in the dark seems a better option from my personal perspective and priorities.

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