Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 3:19 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

If you had 10 bucks to bet...

Topic closed. 132 replies. Last post 6 years ago by JADELottery.

Page 8 of 9
55
PrintE-mailLink

What do you think is the better bet?

1 Play / 10 Draws [ 58 ]  [64.44%]
10 Plays / 1 Draw [ 32 ]  [35.56%]
Total Valid Votes [ 90 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
Michigan
United States
Member #22395
September 24, 2005
1583 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 14, 2011, 3:04 am - IP Logged

Ok, the Pick 5 and Pick 6 tests are coded.

You can try the test yourself and yes, we made it so it's visible to all.

Link - http://www.jadexcode.com/SpecialTest.aspx

We will be working on the Pick 3 and Pick 4 part.

I am going to fully accept your word.  I refuse to install Silverlight.

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
    West Concord, MN
    United States
    Member #21
    December 7, 2001
    3675 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 14, 2011, 6:54 am - IP Logged

    I am going to fully accept your word.  I refuse to install Silverlight.

    we're running it right now.

    we'll post this test run later today.

    Actually, here's where we are right now in the tests.

    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
    Use at your own risk.

    Order is a Subset of Chaos
    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
    Wisdom is Not Censored
    Douglas Paul Smallish
    Jehocifer

      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
      United States
      Member #4924
      June 3, 2004
      5912 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 14, 2011, 1:04 pm - IP Logged

      Explain the results from a 5/36 game.

        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
        United States
        Member #21
        December 7, 2001
        3675 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 14, 2011, 3:43 pm - IP Logged

        Explain the results from a 5/36 game.

        Looks like you ran a 5 of 36 with a minimum 2 numbers or better matching between a play and a draw to win.

        Each test, 0 to 9, runs 15,000,000 draws while counting the wins for each strategy of 1 Play / 10 Draws and 10 Plays / 1 Draw.

        From your example, Test 0 shows: 1 Play / 10 Draws win counts | 10 Plays / 1 Draw win counts | which strategy had the advantage at the end of the test | how much of absolute difference there is between the two strategies.

        In your Test 0: 1 Play / 10 Draws had 1981084 wins | 10 Plays / 1 Draw had 1980130 wins | the 1 Play / 10 Draws had the advanage at the end of the test | with an absolute difference of 954 wins.

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
        Use at your own risk.

        Order is a Subset of Chaos
        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
        Wisdom is Not Censored
        Douglas Paul Smallish
        Jehocifer

          CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
          ORLANDO, FLORIDA
          United States
          Member #4924
          June 3, 2004
          5912 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 14, 2011, 4:04 pm - IP Logged

          Looks like you ran a 5 of 36 with a minimum 2 numbers or better matching between a play and a draw to win.

          Each test, 0 to 9, runs 15,000,000 draws while counting the wins for each strategy of 1 Play / 10 Draws and 10 Plays / 1 Draw.

          From your example, Test 0 shows: 1 Play / 10 Draws win counts | 10 Plays / 1 Draw win counts | which strategy had the advantage at the end of the test | how much of absolute difference there is between the two strategies.

          In your Test 0: 1 Play / 10 Draws had 1981084 wins | 10 Plays / 1 Draw had 1980130 wins | the 1 Play / 10 Draws had the advanage at the end of the test | with an absolute difference of 954 wins.

          Thanks Doug, very nice work.


            United States
            Member #93947
            July 10, 2010
            2180 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 14, 2011, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

            I agree with CARBOB,  Nice work!

            I will be attentively watching how you deal with challengers since I'm working on a program to illustrate another aspect of this myself in another thread.  I hope my praise for your work is not a kiss of death! Smile

              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
              United States
              Member #21
              December 7, 2001
              3675 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 14, 2011, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

              Ok, here's one of our tests we let run while we were at work.

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

                JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
                United States
                Member #21
                December 7, 2001
                3675 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: April 15, 2011, 12:03 pm - IP Logged

                We'll be making some changes to the test program later today, so the program may be unavailable while we crash test the code.

                We're getting the Pick 3 and Pick 4 tests ready.

                The programming is a little different than the usual combinatoric stuff.

                Permutations add a little shuffle to the mix.

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer

                  ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #93164
                  June 23, 2010
                  1325 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 15, 2011, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

                  My vote is one play for 10 draws.


                    United States
                    Member #93947
                    July 10, 2010
                    2180 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 15, 2011, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

                    My vote is one play for 10 draws.

                    JADELottery is saying it's a toss up, but that does not mean the simulation will result in identical winnings after 150,000,000 draws.

                    What criteria will you use to decide whether you are right or wrong?

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
                      Member #21
                      December 7, 2001
                      3675 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 16, 2011, 10:46 am - IP Logged

                      Ok, we've finished the Pick 3 and Pick 4 tests.

                      Link - http://www.jadexcode.com/SpecialTest.aspx

                      You might have to clear your browser cache to get the test to refresh properly.

                      We've seen this problem on Firefox, but not Internet Explorer.

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
                        West Concord, MN
                        United States
                        Member #21
                        December 7, 2001
                        3675 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: April 16, 2011, 10:55 am - IP Logged

                        Here is the Source Code for the recent update.

                         

                        ______________________________________

                        Public Class Pick3Pick4Tests

                          Public Class StatusUpdate
                            Public ProgressPercentage As Integer
                            Public ProgressIndex As Integer
                            Public ProgressInformation As String
                          End Class

                          'Holding structure for both Straight and reduced Box Selections
                          Private Structure ComboList
                            Dim Straight As String
                            Dim Box As String
                          End Structure

                          Public R, X As Integer 'R - 3 for Pick 3 and 4 for Pick 4, X Compare as 1 - Straight, 2 - Box, 3 - Both

                          Public Sub RunThePick3Pick4Test(ByVal worker As System.ComponentModel.BackgroundWorker, ByVal e As System.ComponentModel.DoWorkEventArgs)
                            Dim Draw As New List(Of Integer) 'Holding bin for sorting to a reduced box
                            Dim Draws As New ComboList 'Draw

                            Dim Combo As New List(Of Integer) 'Holding bin for sorting to a reduced box
                            Dim Play As New ComboList 'Play selection to be added to the plays list
                            Dim Plays As New List(Of ComboList) 'Plays where Plays.Item(0) is 1 Play and Plays.Item(1 to 10) are the 10 Plays

                            Dim UpdateStatus As New StatusUpdate
                            UpdateStatus.ProgressPercentage = 0
                            UpdateStatus.ProgressIndex = -1
                            UpdateStatus.ProgressInformation = "Testing."
                            worker.ReportProgress(0, UpdateStatus)
                            Randomize(Timer)

                            For TestIndex As Integer = 0 To 9

                              'Reset Count for each test
                              Dim Total_1P_10D_Wins As Integer = 0
                              Dim Total_10P_1D_Wins As Integer = 0

                              For DrawIndex As Integer = 1 To 15000000
                                'Cancel Thread
                                If worker.CancellationPending Then
                                  e.Cancel = True
                                  Exit Sub
                                End If

                                'Loads random combinations for 1 Play and 10 Plays once every 10 Draws
                                If Modulus(DrawIndex, 10) = 1 Then
                                  Plays.Clear()
                                  For a As Integer = 0 To 10
                                    Combo.Clear()
                                    Play.Straight = ""
                                    Play.Box = ""
                                    For b As Integer = 1 To R
                                      Combo.Add(RandomLowerUpper(0, 9))
                                      Play.Straight &= Combo.Item(b - 1).ToString
                                    Next
                                    Combo.Sort()
                                    For b = 1 To R
                                      Play.Box &= Combo.Item(b - 1).ToString
                                    Next
                                    Plays.Add(Play)
                                  Next
                                End If

                                'Draws New Numbers
                                Draw.Clear()
                                Draws.Straight = ""
                                Draws.Box = ""
                                For a = 1 To R
                                  Draw.Add(RandomLowerUpper(0, 9))
                                  Draws.Straight &= Draw.Item(a - 1).ToString
                                Next
                                Draw.Sort()
                                For a = 1 To R
                                  Draws.Box &= Draw.Item(a - 1).ToString
                                Next

                                'Individual Compare test of 1 - Staright only, 2 - Box only, 3 - Straight and Box
                                Select Case X
                                  Case 1 'Run Straight tests

                                    'Compare and Count 10 Plays to 1 Draw only once every 10 Draws
                                    If Modulus(DrawIndex, 10) = 1 Then
                                      For a = 1 To 10
                                        If Plays.Item(a).Straight = Draws.Straight Then
                                          Total_10P_1D_Wins += 1
                                        End If
                                      Next
                                    End If

                                    'Compare and Count 1 Play to 10 Draws
                                    If Plays.Item(0).Straight = Draws.Straight Then
                                      Total_1P_10D_Wins += 1
                                    End If

                                  Case 2 'Run Box tests

                                    'Compare and Count 10 Plays to 1 Draw only once every 10 Draws
                                    If Modulus(DrawIndex, 10) = 1 Then
                                      For a = 1 To 10
                                        If Plays.Item(a).Box = Draws.Box Then
                                          Total_10P_1D_Wins += 1
                                        End If
                                      Next
                                    End If

                                    'Compare and Count 1 Play to 10 Draws
                                    If Plays.Item(0).Box = Draws.Box Then
                                      Total_1P_10D_Wins += 1
                                    End If

                                  Case 3 'Run both Straight and Box tests

                                    'Compare and Count 10 Plays to 1 Draw only once every 10 Draws
                                    If Modulus(DrawIndex, 10) = 1 Then
                                      For a = 1 To 10
                                        If Plays.Item(a).Straight = Draws.Straight Then
                                          Total_10P_1D_Wins += 1
                                        End If
                                        If Plays.Item(a).Box = Draws.Box Then
                                          Total_10P_1D_Wins += 1
                                        End If
                                      Next
                                    End If

                                    'Compare and Count 1 Play to 10 Draws
                                    If Plays.Item(0).Straight = Draws.Straight Then
                                      Total_1P_10D_Wins += 1
                                    End If
                                    If Plays.Item(0).Box = Draws.Box Then
                                      Total_1P_10D_Wins += 1
                                    End If

                                End Select

                                If Modulus(DrawIndex, 50000) = 0 Then
                                  UpdateStatus.ProgressPercentage = Int(DrawIndex / 150000)
                                  UpdateStatus.ProgressIndex = TestIndex
                                  UpdateStatus.ProgressInformation = Total_1P_10D_Wins.ToString & " | " & Total_10P_1D_Wins.ToString & " | "
                                  If Total_1P_10D_Wins = Total_10P_1D_Wins Then
                                    UpdateStatus.ProgressInformation &= "None | 0"
                                  End If
                                  If Total_1P_10D_Wins > Total_10P_1D_Wins Then
                                    UpdateStatus.ProgressInformation &= "1P 10D | " & Math.Abs(Total_1P_10D_Wins - Total_10P_1D_Wins).ToString
                                  End If
                                  If Total_1P_10D_Wins < Total_10P_1D_Wins Then
                                    UpdateStatus.ProgressInformation &= "10P 1D | " & Math.Abs(Total_1P_10D_Wins - Total_10P_1D_Wins).ToString
                                  End If
                                  worker.ReportProgress(0, UpdateStatus)
                                End If

                              Next

                            Next

                            UpdateStatus.ProgressPercentage = 0
                            UpdateStatus.ProgressIndex = -1
                            UpdateStatus.ProgressInformation = "Complete."
                            worker.ReportProgress(0, UpdateStatus)
                          End Sub

                          Function Modulus(ByVal a As Double, ByVal b As Double) As Long
                            Modulus = a - b * Int(a / b)
                          End Function

                          Function RandomLowerUpper(ByVal L As Long, ByVal U As Long) As Long
                            RandomLowerUpper = Int(Rnd() * (U - (L - 1))) + L
                          End Function

                        End Class

                        __________________________________

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
                        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                        Wisdom is Not Censored
                        Douglas Paul Smallish
                        Jehocifer

                          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                          The Quantum Master
                          West Concord, MN
                          United States
                          Member #21
                          December 7, 2001
                          3675 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: April 16, 2011, 11:02 am - IP Logged

                          Here is one our test run for Pick 3.

                          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                          Use at your own risk.

                          Order is a Subset of Chaos
                          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                          Wisdom is Not Censored
                          Douglas Paul Smallish
                          Jehocifer

                            Hermanus104's avatar - 5027340606 1e360c8038_s.jpg
                            Northern Virginia
                            United States
                            Member #83350
                            December 5, 2009
                            1317 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: April 16, 2011, 10:38 pm - IP Logged

                            I voted, "1 play / 10 draws" because, even though you will not win as large a prize, you have more chances to win.

                            Today's winning 3-ball is going to be a number between 000 and 999.

                            In a lot of states, lotteries benefit education. That makes the REAL winners the only people who can't play!


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: April 16, 2011, 11:19 pm - IP Logged

                              I voted, "1 play / 10 draws" because, even though you will not win as large a prize, you have more chances to win.

                              How many more chances do you think you will have to win?

                              BTW, the answer is displayed for you in the results of 150,000,000 draws above.