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If you had 10 bucks to bet...

Topic closed. 132 replies. Last post 6 years ago by JADELottery.

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What do you think is the better bet?

1 Play / 10 Draws [ 58 ]  [64.44%]
10 Plays / 1 Draw [ 32 ]  [35.56%]
Total Valid Votes [ 90 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  

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Posted: April 9, 2011, 3:05 pm - IP Logged

For the 10 Draws/1 Ticket each scenario, just assume you purchase all $1 Tickets in 10 different (5,39) games in 10 different states ON THE SAME DAY!  What are the odds for these 10 Tickets?  The same as the other 10!

Thanks for your efforts to help me understand Doug's logic but the above scenario wasn't in the question. it was a 10/1 or 1/10 in the same game. I think I understand his logic now.

It turns out both scenarios are 10 trys to match a combination but from opposite directions.  In the first the player actively seeks the target with ten trys and in the second the player is the target and he hopes one of the 10 winning numbers finds him.

This could cause me to rethink my logic of not playing a set of numbers more than once.

"This could cause me to rethink my logic of not playing a set of numbers more than once."

You're getting closer to "Enlightenment."

When you realize that my 2 scenarios are analogous to Doug's,

you will be even closer!

Wink

    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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    Posted: April 9, 2011, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

    ridge,tiggs has been awondering hows come you and your first wife Maybalenne named your first born pumpi..huh?...

    After my Great Great Papaw, Pumpi Schleppensteinbergenfelcherhausenliebengleeber


                                                 
                         
                                             

     

     

     

     

                                                                                                       

    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

     

     

      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
      The Quantum Master
      West Concord, MN
      United States
      Member #21
      December 7, 2001
      3675 Posts
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      Posted: April 9, 2011, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

      I think I get it now. 

      Buy one ticket with 10 combinations for 1 draw, you get 10 trys (↓) to match 1 winner (↑)


        ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓

                 

                  ↑

       

      Buy one 1 combinations for 10 draws, 10 winners (↑) try to match your 1 combination (↓).


                 

       

        ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑


      Both strategies are the same but from opposite directions

      That's it.

      Well put.

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      Use at your own risk.

      Order is a Subset of Chaos
      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
      Wisdom is Not Censored
      Douglas Paul Smallish
      Jehocifer


        United States
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        Posted: April 10, 2011, 2:08 am - IP Logged

        Bottom line...

        Would you rather throw a 100 foot diameter net into a pool with 50 fish once, or would you rather throw a net with a diameter of 10 feet into the same pool ten separate times?

        I think I would rather throw the 100 foot diameter net into the water once.

        If you've ever seen shows on the Discovery channel that show enviornmentalist type folks explode nets over an area on the beach where certain birds feed and are caught for research, they use large nets, not small ones.

          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
          The Quantum Master
          West Concord, MN
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          3675 Posts
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          Posted: April 10, 2011, 9:53 am - IP Logged

          Bottom line...

          Would you rather throw a 100 foot diameter net into a pool with 50 fish once, or would you rather throw a net with a diameter of 10 feet into the same pool ten separate times?

          I think I would rather throw the 100 foot diameter net into the water once.

          If you've ever seen shows on the Discovery channel that show enviornmentalist type folks explode nets over an area on the beach where certain birds feed and are caught for research, they use large nets, not small ones.

          Once again, good anecdotal summary, but you have not established a relative frame of reference to what we demonstrated.

          How does your Net relate to anything we posted?

          How do the Fish relate?

          And more importantly, where and how big is the Tank your holding these fish in?

          The lottery by definition is a finite set of choices: known, bounded, calculated, and generated; finite like a Tank.

          Open water fishing introduces additional unknown quantities and probabilities that are not part of the finite set of choices, i. e. lottery combinations.

          It's like the introduction of the Power Play and the Megaplier, they don't improve your probability of winning; they're just additional fluff that has nothing to do with matching your play to the draw.

          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
          Use at your own risk.

          Order is a Subset of Chaos
          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
          Wisdom is Not Censored
          Douglas Paul Smallish
          Jehocifer

            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
            The Quantum Master
            West Concord, MN
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            Posted: April 10, 2011, 10:21 am - IP Logged

            Once again, good anecdotal summary, but you have not established a relative frame of reference to what we demonstrated.

            How does your Net relate to anything we posted?

            How do the Fish relate?

            And more importantly, where and how big is the Tank your holding these fish in?

            The lottery by definition is a finite set of choices: known, bounded, calculated, and generated; finite like a Tank.

            Open water fishing introduces additional unknown quantities and probabilities that are not part of the finite set of choices, i. e. lottery combinations.

            It's like the introduction of the Power Play and the Megaplier, they don't improve your probability of winning; they're just additional fluff that has nothing to do with matching your play to the draw.

            One more note.

            Fish might not be a good choice.

            They have a mind of there own and are likely to evade capture.

            That gives rise to some kind of sentient thinking, which could be an indication of a rigged lottery.

            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
            Use at your own risk.

            Order is a Subset of Chaos
            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
            Wisdom is Not Censored
            Douglas Paul Smallish
            Jehocifer

              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
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              Posted: April 10, 2011, 10:32 am - IP Logged

              One more note.

              Fish might not be a good choice.

              They have a mind of there own and are likely to evade capture.

              That gives rise to some kind of sentient thinking, which could be an indication of a rigged lottery.

              Just one more thing to consider.

              Keep in mind that this is catch and release.

              Also, the lottery is casting a net just like you are.

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

                JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
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                Posted: April 10, 2011, 10:40 am - IP Logged

                Actually, a net is not a good choice either as it relates to our posts.

                We've had a enough time to think this one out and have come up with a better Fish Story that best explains what we posted.

                We'll post it a little later.

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer

                  JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                  The Quantum Master
                  West Concord, MN
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                  Posted: April 10, 2011, 12:16 pm - IP Logged

                  Ok, here's our Fish Story.

                  Going back and looking at what you said, we need to relate the net and the fish to the posting we made. First, what is a fish? Does it represent combinations or just numbers? Second, how does your net work and does it have limitations or attributes other than just size? Can a rod and reel work better in place of a net? How does the lottery relate to this whole Fish Story and what are their choices? These are some things that have us wondering about how to best explain what we posted as it relates your Analogous Fish Adventure. We’ll relate this also to RJOh’s 5/39 lottery-arrow conundrum.

                  We need to know what kind of fish we’re catching, because I ain’t eatin’ wha’cha gut flopin’ around in that bucket. We’ll say each fish is tagged with a combination, for simplicity; one catch, one play. Also, these are not just any kind of fish; they have to be from the same stock; even more than that, they have to be cloned. Don’t worry silly, you don’t eat ‘em, we’re gonna throw ‘em back. The reasoning is that, they all need to be the same, because they have to look alike, swim alike, and behave alike. To not be that way, would introduce additional unknown variables into the selections. Remember, balls don’t think and bounce around on their own, unless their in a computer, but that’s a different debate altogether.

                  The net, well, there’s a problem with the net; it’s nice that there are nets of different sizes and they do great things. But, how does the net function? Size would imply catching more or less fish or combinations without any known quantity of fish or combinations. If you say you’re casting a net to catch fish or combinations, how many fish or combinations are you capturing: 1, 10, or 100? If you say that one net can capture 10 fish and another can capture only 1, then the size of the net is irrelevant. Size then becomes that additional fluff like the Power Play and the Megaplier; helpful but not meaningful as it relates to our previous postings. It might be better to just do catch and release since that’s what the lottery does anyway. They pick a set of numbers for the draw and put ‘em back. In that, we could use a rod and reel to catch a fish, look at its tag, write down the combination, and throw it back.

                  In this whole fishy scheme, how does the lottery fit in? Well, they are fishing, too. It is a catch and release tournament to see if some or all of the combinations on the fish you caught match some or all of the combinations on the fish the lottery caught. In this case, as it relates to RJOh’s example, the lottery is catching 5/39 combination tagged fish and so are we. Now, there are two different tournaments. The first tournament is match some or all of the combinations on someone’s 10 Catches to someone’s 1 Catch. The second tournament is match some or all of the combinations on someone’s 1 Catch to someone’s 10 Catches.

                  Finally, who’s doing the catching? Who’s catching 1 and who’s catching 10? The answer coming up, right after these messages from our sponsor…

                  Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                  Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                  Use at your own risk.

                  Order is a Subset of Chaos
                  Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                  Wisdom is Not Censored
                  Douglas Paul Smallish
                  Jehocifer

                    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                    The Quantum Master
                    West Concord, MN
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                    Posted: April 10, 2011, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

                    …Aright, back from the break.

                     

                    Now that we’ve had some time to think about who’s doin’ the catchin’, we can look at this a little more closely. The Tournaments need some rules that must be followed; if not, then it’s a free for all and the Tournaments are hereby nullified and canceled. Also, these are really-really hungry fish; you catch ‘em within the first minute.

                     

                    Tournament Rules

                     

                    1 – The Lottery and the Player must choose sides, either Catch 10 or Catch 1, not both.

                    2 – The Lottery and the Players must fish at different times; the Lottery will be allowed to fish between (09:59 pm to 10:00 pm, Wednesdays and Saturdays) and the Player will be allowed to fish at any other time the Lottery is not on the lake, to make their quota.

                    3 – This is all Catch and Release; soon as anyone catches a fish, they will write down the fish combination and throw it back; anyone found holding fish will be disqualified.

                    4 – There will be two Tournaments: Catch 10 to match Catch 1 and Catch 1 to match Catch 10.

                    5 – The Player gets to decide which side first (Catch 10 or Catch 1) in the tournaments, then the two fisher folk swap sides in the second tournament.

                    6 – Fisher folk Catching 1 fish must wait for the other Catching 10 fish to make their quota.

                    7 – Fish caught that have 3 or more numbers matching between the Lottery’s fish combinations and the Player’s fish combinations will be considered winners.

                     

                    Below is the signup sheet.

                     

                    Contestant #

                    Fisher Folk Name

                    Tournament 1

                    Tournament 2

                    1

                     

                    Catch 10

                    Catch 1

                    2

                     

                    Catch 1

                    Catch 10

                     

                    We have the rules and we have the tournament setup. But, before names are filled out and fishing begins, Which Tournament has the advantage? If you say there is a difference between the two, then you should be able to demonstrate the difference even before names are assigned. It’s the players choice to be either Contestant 1 or Contestant 2 and the lottery takes the available open slot of Contestant 2 or Contestant 1, repsectively.

                    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                    Use at your own risk.

                    Order is a Subset of Chaos
                    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                    Wisdom is Not Censored
                    Douglas Paul Smallish
                    Jehocifer

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
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                      Posted: April 10, 2011, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                      Let’s assign some names.

                       

                      Contestant #

                      Fisher Folk Name

                      Tournament 1

                      Tournament 2

                      1

                      Lottery

                      Catch 10

                      Catch 1

                      2

                      Player

                      Catch 1

                      Catch 10

                       

                      Can you still say which has the advantage?

                       

                      How about now?

                       

                      Contestant #

                      Fisher Folk Name

                      Tournament 1

                      Tournament 2

                      1

                      Player

                      Catch 10

                      Catch 1

                      2

                      Lottery

                      Catch 1

                      Catch 10

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
                        West Concord, MN
                        United States
                        Member #21
                        December 7, 2001
                        3675 Posts
                        Online
                        Posted: April 10, 2011, 3:22 pm - IP Logged

                        Let’s assign some names.

                         

                        Contestant #

                        Fisher Folk Name

                        Tournament 1

                        Tournament 2

                        1

                        Lottery

                        Catch 10

                        Catch 1

                        2

                        Player

                        Catch 1

                        Catch 10

                         

                        Can you still say which has the advantage?

                         

                        How about now?

                         

                        Contestant #

                        Fisher Folk Name

                        Tournament 1

                        Tournament 2

                        1

                        Player

                        Catch 10

                        Catch 1

                        2

                        Lottery

                        Catch 1

                        Catch 10

                        To really twist your noodle, Which contestant has the Advantage, 1 or 2?

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
                        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                        Wisdom is Not Censored
                        Douglas Paul Smallish
                        Jehocifer


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                          Posted: April 10, 2011, 3:46 pm - IP Logged

                          Let's say there are 53 fish mongers in town, and only one of six of them have tartar sauce. Would you rather have 10 scouts checking out which of the mongers have it, or send one scout out at a time to find the six who have the tartar sauce?

                          I'm gonna ask my friend Gill this question and see what he says. Unfortunately, he flip flops on his answers most of the time.

                            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                            The Quantum Master
                            West Concord, MN
                            United States
                            Member #21
                            December 7, 2001
                            3675 Posts
                            Online
                            Posted: April 10, 2011, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

                            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                            Use at your own risk.

                            Order is a Subset of Chaos
                            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                            Wisdom is Not Censored
                            Douglas Paul Smallish
                            Jehocifer

                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                              United States
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                              April 28, 2009
                              14903 Posts
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                              Posted: April 10, 2011, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

                              Let's say there are 53 fish mongers in town, and only one of six of them have tartar sauce. Would you rather have 10 scouts checking out which of the mongers have it, or send one scout out at a time to find the six who have the tartar sauce?

                              I'm gonna ask my friend Gill this question and see what he says. Unfortunately, he flip flops on his answers most of the time.

                              I know Gill.

                              He's working at the marina fixing outboard motors now.

                              I took mine in to have him work on it.

                              He said it looked like I'd blown a seal.

                              I told him to fix the dam motor and leave my personal life out of it.


                                                                           
                                                   
                                                                       

                               

                               

                               

                               

                                                                                                                                 

                              "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                          --Edmund Burke