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Did Joan Ginther have a little help in her 4 lottery wins?

Topic closed. 48 replies. Last post 5 years ago by James1.

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NY
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Posted: August 10, 2011, 1:30 am - IP Logged

Does not anyone find the fact that the same store recieved 3 winning scratch-off's kind of peculiar?  I do.

How many tickets does that store sell, and have they sold other winners worth $1 million or more? From what I see it seems that only a small percentage of stores sell tickets worth that much, so I'd want to know the independent odds of the store selling each winner  first.

As a fairly wild guess I'll figure that there are about 100 winners per year of $1 million or more. If there are 2000 retailers a store selling an average number of tickets would have a 5% chance of selling such a winner. If there's a 5% chance of selling such a ticket each year there would be a 10% chance over a 2 year period, and the chance of selling 3 of them 2 years apart would be about 1 in 1000. We should then expect that about 1 of every 1000 retailers would sell 3 such winners in any 6 year period, so why not this one?

Of course this store selling 3 winning tickets that are all  bought by the same person is far more unlikely, unless she's was buying a substantial percentage of all the tickets they were selling. What I would think is far more likely than her math skills giving her an edge would be somebody from the lottery tipping her off on where the winning tickets could be found. That's still a problematic explanation, though. Either the tickets were all legitimately sent to that store and somebody just knew where they went, or somebody was able to control where the tickets went but sent them all to the same store. Perhaps sending them to the same store could be a ballsy gambit precisely because it seems so stupid. Of course the Texas lottery would presumably know if somebody had that ability.

    diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
    Dallas, TX
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    Posted: August 10, 2011, 3:36 am - IP Logged

    It's much easier to find loop holes in business practice than it is in lottery agrorythms.

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      SARASOTA, FL
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      Posted: August 10, 2011, 11:07 am - IP Logged

      A gas station in Fruitland Park, Fl (middle of nowhere) sold 2 winning tickets in 1 year to the same guy ! 1 for $10 Million and the other for $1 Million. even more strange is they where from the same game (Billion Dollar Blockbuster)

      Ginther's case is not unique as it does happen but you cant rule out the possibility that these people had inside info. its just too bizarre.

      Hi James. Fruitland Park? Wasn't John Marsh the guy (whos photo is on the Florida Lottery BDB winners site) you are talking about who won the $1M and $10M on BDB within a year from - Port Charlotte ? Supposedly bought from the same gas station. How about the other guy in the PanHandle in a very small town who won two huge similar amounts I think within a year.

      The Florida Lottery site says there are over 13,000 retailers in the state.  Figure the odds of the above happening with all the books sold and bought. The Florida Lottery site shows you how many top prizes are left on the scratch offs and I often wonder if they are all in circulation or even printed yet.

      I know a few guys who buy books and books weekly/monthly for years and never won more than a $1,000 or maybe $5,000.

      I find it hard to believe there is some magic formula involved finding winning top prize scratch offs.  Marsh and the guy in the Panhandle are not math Phd's. It has to be luck.

      What's your take ?

        ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
        Chicago
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        Posted: August 10, 2011, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

        What up?

        I finally made it to cali 6 days ago.....Never looking back...Love it..Party           Cheers                      Guitar

        AHAHAHA YES I noticed the L. A. (City of Angels : ) ) under your name : ) I'm jealous joker. I'm working on getting back myself and it's a ONE WAY ticket :) 'cause I'll NEVER come back to Chicago LOL   And when I get there I'm looking you up : )  LOL notice the WHEN : )

        Just get me thru this so called life......

          ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
          Chicago
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          Posted: August 10, 2011, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

          Hey Sweet Thang, how you is?

          You bout to do the cold thing again this winter?

          I figgered you'd be back with the pretty boys in the land of fruits and nuts by now.

          Don't fergit to tell all them mailmans up there that you still in my stable now, hear?

          OMG LOL What's the cold thing? disappearing? I've been having fun learning to read Lenormand cards as well as learning about the soul and spirits and all that fun stuff : ) Ya know learning about all that "fake" psychic stuff.  But I'm happy to say the ex is out of my system...I'm good and free and alive : ) And I'm working on getting back to CA!!!!!

          Just get me thru this so called life......


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            Posted: August 10, 2011, 7:56 pm - IP Logged

            How many tickets does that store sell, and have they sold other winners worth $1 million or more? From what I see it seems that only a small percentage of stores sell tickets worth that much, so I'd want to know the independent odds of the store selling each winner  first.

            As a fairly wild guess I'll figure that there are about 100 winners per year of $1 million or more. If there are 2000 retailers a store selling an average number of tickets would have a 5% chance of selling such a winner. If there's a 5% chance of selling such a ticket each year there would be a 10% chance over a 2 year period, and the chance of selling 3 of them 2 years apart would be about 1 in 1000. We should then expect that about 1 of every 1000 retailers would sell 3 such winners in any 6 year period, so why not this one?

            Of course this store selling 3 winning tickets that are all  bought by the same person is far more unlikely, unless she's was buying a substantial percentage of all the tickets they were selling. What I would think is far more likely than her math skills giving her an edge would be somebody from the lottery tipping her off on where the winning tickets could be found. That's still a problematic explanation, though. Either the tickets were all legitimately sent to that store and somebody just knew where they went, or somebody was able to control where the tickets went but sent them all to the same store. Perhaps sending them to the same store could be a ballsy gambit precisely because it seems so stupid. Of course the Texas lottery would presumably know if somebody had that ability.

            A thought provoking analysis Floyd...  I think you're right in tune with NT and will enjoy his Black Swan even more than FBR! Smile

            Possibly Maybe

            By GREGG EASTERBROOK
            Published: April 22, 2007

            On the eve of the 2006 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center forecast a “hyperactive” summer and fall, with eight to 10 Atlantic cyclones; instead there were five, smack on the 20th-century average. At the beginning of 2006, The Wall Street Journal forecast a bad year for stocks; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 16 percent that year. (Disturbingly, The Journal has forecast a good year for 2007.) The British government recently said climate change could reduce global G.D.P. by 13.8 percent in the first year of the 23rd century. Not by 13.7 percent, not by 13.9 percent — by 13.8 percent. In response to an astronomer’s discovery, The New York Times in 2004 declared that the universe might have a “peaceful end” in “tens of billions of years,” but cautioned that it could not rule out the cosmos’s exploding in a few billion years. Writing of the same discovery, The Washington Post predicted that the demise of the cosmos would require 30 billion years, adding this vital caveat: “It remains impossible to predict the fate of the universe with certainty.” Oh, so we can’t be certain what will happen 30 billion years from now!

            The hubris of predictions — and our perpetual surprise when the not-predicted happens — are themes of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s engaging new book, “The Black Swan.” It concerns the occurrence of the improbable, the power of rare events and the author’s lament that “in spite of the empirical record we continue to project into the future as if we were good at it.” We expect all swans to be white and are shocked when a black swan swims by.......

            http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/review/Easterbrook.t.html?pagewanted=all


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              Posted: August 10, 2011, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

              AHAHAHA YES I noticed the L. A. (City of Angels : ) ) under your name : ) I'm jealous joker. I'm working on getting back myself and it's a ONE WAY ticket :) 'cause I'll NEVER come back to Chicago LOL   And when I get there I'm looking you up : )  LOL notice the WHEN : )

              Awesome....hurry...lol

              The sky is always blue, cool in the morning, cool after sunset, no humidity, and it's in the low 80's....in August.....Cool

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                Kentucky
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                February 14, 2006
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                Posted: August 11, 2011, 7:32 pm - IP Logged

                How many tickets does that store sell, and have they sold other winners worth $1 million or more? From what I see it seems that only a small percentage of stores sell tickets worth that much, so I'd want to know the independent odds of the store selling each winner  first.

                As a fairly wild guess I'll figure that there are about 100 winners per year of $1 million or more. If there are 2000 retailers a store selling an average number of tickets would have a 5% chance of selling such a winner. If there's a 5% chance of selling such a ticket each year there would be a 10% chance over a 2 year period, and the chance of selling 3 of them 2 years apart would be about 1 in 1000. We should then expect that about 1 of every 1000 retailers would sell 3 such winners in any 6 year period, so why not this one?

                Of course this store selling 3 winning tickets that are all  bought by the same person is far more unlikely, unless she's was buying a substantial percentage of all the tickets they were selling. What I would think is far more likely than her math skills giving her an edge would be somebody from the lottery tipping her off on where the winning tickets could be found. That's still a problematic explanation, though. Either the tickets were all legitimately sent to that store and somebody just knew where they went, or somebody was able to control where the tickets went but sent them all to the same store. Perhaps sending them to the same store could be a ballsy gambit precisely because it seems so stupid. Of course the Texas lottery would presumably know if somebody had that ability.

                "Of course this store selling 3 winning tickets that are all  bought by the same person is far more unlikely, unless she's was buying a substantial percentage of all the tickets they were selling."

                They were $50 tickets with 20 tickets to a bundle and she may have bought most or all of them. The store owner could have ordered extra bundles knowing she be there on vacation so the store sold a much higher percentage than average. I read somewhere the lottery holds back a couple of top prize tickets so people will continuing playing. Her winning ticket was sold near the end of the ticket run so her odds of winning were much better and she certainly had enough money to take the gamble.

                  ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
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                  Posted: August 11, 2011, 8:35 pm - IP Logged

                  Ok I read the story and this just makes me go hmmm. I thought the article in the mag was an interview but from the link Todd posted it sounds more like one writers opinion. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? Nooooo. And the store suddenly goes out of business? Hmmm! If anything selling those kind of winners would bring in more business.  And the Lottery Commission doesn't suspect fowl play?? Double hmmm. Does this lady have nothing better to do?

                  Just get me thru this so called life......

                    ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
                    Chicago
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                    Posted: August 11, 2011, 8:45 pm - IP Logged

                    Awesome....hurry...lol

                    The sky is always blue, cool in the morning, cool after sunset, no humidity, and it's in the low 80's....in August.....Cool

                    WoooHooo more incentive : ) I can't get there fast enough! On my way to Chicago I fell off the planet and landed somewhere else. This place is so not ca : (

                    Just get me thru this so called life......


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                      Posted: August 11, 2011, 11:20 pm - IP Logged

                      The current issue of Harpers magazine has an article on Joan Ginther. 

                      Joan Ginther holds a math Ph. D. from Stanford.  The new article goes on to examine how she could have beat the system. 

                      I haven't read it but it sounds interesting.  Single issues of the magazine are available online. 

                      There are a couple articles in Google news, that talk a little bit more about it.

                      Sorry can't seem to post a link.

                       

                      The Harpers article talks about how with help from the store owner she could have got inside info.

                      The week the article was to go to print, the store suddenly closed.

                      The Harpers article talks about "...how...she could have got inside info."

                      Nicholas Taleb talks about this phenomenon in Black Swan by pointing out that...

                      "First, it [ a rare event] is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable."

                      If this interests you, read more by clicking  HERE.



                        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                        Posted: August 12, 2011, 12:32 am - IP Logged

                        OMG LOL What's the cold thing? disappearing? I've been having fun learning to read Lenormand cards as well as learning about the soul and spirits and all that fun stuff : ) Ya know learning about all that "fake" psychic stuff.  But I'm happy to say the ex is out of my system...I'm good and free and alive : ) And I'm working on getting back to CA!!!!!

                        The 'cold thing' is stayin in Chicago for another winter.

                        That's still gotta be better than dealin with all those dancin' boys out in Californy though, right?


                                                                     
                                             
                                                                 

                         

                         

                         

                         

                                                                                                                           

                        "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                    --Edmund Burke

                         

                         


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                          Posted: August 12, 2011, 1:15 am - IP Logged

                          The 'cold thing' is stayin in Chicago for another winter.

                          That's still gotta be better than dealin with all those dancin' boys out in Californy though, right?

                          You just can't help yourself can you?

                          What's so bad about dancing boys anyways? You may like it If you were a little more open minded.

                            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                            United States
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                            Posted: August 12, 2011, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

                            You just can't help yourself can you?

                            What's so bad about dancing boys anyways? You may like it If you were a little more open minded.

                            What's so bad about dancing boys anyways?

                            Nothing, I think they're fabulous.

                             

                            "You may like it..."

                            I don't know what "it" is and I don't think I want to know.


                                                                         
                                                 
                                                                     

                             

                             

                             

                             

                                                                                                                               

                            "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                        --Edmund Burke

                             

                             

                              ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
                              Chicago
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                              Posted: August 12, 2011, 11:03 pm - IP Logged

                              I want to know what's up with all this dancin" boys??? I hate, hate, hate Chiiicago and last winter I actually got snowed in and couldn't go to work.

                              Is the dancin' boy referring to joker????? He's a hot chile pepper : ) LOL muy caliente papasito hahaha : )

                              Just get me thru this so called life......