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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: January 24, 2013, 6:06 pm - IP Logged

Right stack, but using our imagination to find creative ways of predicting a winning set of numbers is not the same as "gamblers fallacy" as Jimmy would have people believe. And its certainly not the same as a coin flip.

Anytime you successfully eliminate numbers from the number pool and play tickets for that draw........

You are playing number combinations that have better odds for that one draw.

Does it really matter that statisticaly you will have to "pay back" those odds? 

Especially if it just so happens that you win on that one particular draw?

You will never think twice about "The statistical laws of probability"

You will be happy that you won playing BETTER ODDS.


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    Posted: January 24, 2013, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

    If Boney would have used my number set the last time he played PB...................

    he would have had 10 times BETTER ODDS on hitting 5 of 5.

     

    Wednesday, November 28, 2012        05 · 16 · 22 · 23 · 29    06          $587.5 Million


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      Posted: January 24, 2013, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

      Would you like me to cook up a set of 39 numbers for Sat night PB draw Boney?????

      Or is the jackpot still to low for you to try and win it without sharing it with anyone?????


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        Posted: January 24, 2013, 6:19 pm - IP Logged

        I wonder if Jimmy will ever get tired of wasting his time telling us we are wasting our time?


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          Posted: January 24, 2013, 7:49 pm - IP Logged

          SoCalNative,

          As you pointed out, it took about 16 years for the 1636 drawings you've studied to be made. Since, at 2 per week, it will take at least about 1.7 MILLION years before all of the possible combinations of this Mega game are drawn, I'm surprised that you're surprised that you didn't find the repeats you looked for. A good exercise for you would be to calculate how often these 4+ and 5+ combos might be expected to recur on a random basis.

          When you said, "But if you're looking for number combos that have a more likely chance of winning, my best advice is to use the search on the USA Mega site and make sure you're picking combos that have never come up before.," you made it clear where you stand regarding the issue of the effects of past drawings on the future. This short video might help you to see why your advice may not be of any help to Mega game players.

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8SkCh-n4rw 

          --Jimmy4164


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            Posted: January 24, 2013, 7:56 pm - IP Logged

                                       

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              March 24, 2001
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              Posted: January 24, 2013, 8:46 pm - IP Logged

              Hello,

              I came on here several months ago as MathKat and was banned for trying to post a link.


              I've been watching for some time and I resigned up earlier today. I won't make the same mistake twice. The link I tried to post was merely a link to the USA Mega site that shows where you can look up the past drawings and a comprehensive search where you can put in a set of numbers and it will show you how many times that set has come up and how many winning combinations of that set has come up. IE: 3 + M.

               

              I've been pouring over the numbers when I have time, which unfortunately I have very little.

              But what I've been doing my search based on the Mega Numbers. In other words I search each winning ticket for a particular winning number and marking down the results. So far I've only gotten through 20 of the mega numbers so my table is no where near done. But I have so far documented (and continuously updated) the results of 508 out of the 1636 drawings from over the past 16 years 5 months (roughly) and what I've come up with so far is this (and keep in mind that this is only based on those 508 drawings so far, but they are spread out through out) is that there have been no repeats of any 5 + M, 5 (w/o M), or 4 + M combos. Not a single one. There are times where 4 number combos have been repeated but it's rare. Repeats of M + 3 combos are also rare. Much more commonly repeated are 3 number, M+2, and Mega + 1 (obviously).

              Again this is not complete data the mega numbers I've searched so far are 1, 4, 10, 13, 14, 16, 19, 27, 29, 32, 36, 39, 41, 44, (and the ones no longer in use I did these just get them out of the way and for the purpose of having all possible data: 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, & 52) so I guess really if you look at it this way I've really only completed 14 of the 46 that really count.

              I would like to post my graph (even though it's not complete) so my information above will actually make some sense. But I'm afraid of getting botted again, so I'm not sure how to go about it.

              I could try copy and pasting it, but I don't know how well that will work.

              But if you're looking for number combos that have a more likely chance of winning, my best advice is to use the search on the USA Mega site and make sure you're picking combos that have never come up before. Also if you really think consecutive numbers, all even #s, all odd numbers, will help you, you definitely incorporate those into your strategy. I don't think that really matters personally. But it couldn't hurt to try it.

              You need to do a better search, you obviously missed this, and there is another one.

               Numbers MatchedPrizeDates / Result 

                12/7/2001    05 · 06 · 13 · 20 · 46    +15   
                7/24/2001    05 · 06 · 10 · 13 · 20    +15

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                Posted: January 24, 2013, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

                "You are playing number combinations that have better odds for that one draw.

                Does it really matter that statisticaly you will have to "pay back" those odds? "

                 

                Because those two effects exactly cancel out, yes, it does matter that you have to pay back those odds.  At least if your goal is to have better odds.

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: January 24, 2013, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

                  Would you like me to cook up a set of 39 numbers for Sat night PB draw Boney?????

                  Or is the jackpot still to low for you to try and win it without sharing it with anyone?????

                  Do whatever you want.  I wouldn't be playing your numbers intentionally, even if I was playing.  I enjoy picking out my own numbers, but have no delusions about the odds.

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: January 24, 2013, 11:27 pm - IP Logged

                    Do whatever you want.  I wouldn't be playing your numbers intentionally, even if I was playing.  I enjoy picking out my own numbers, but have no delusions about the odds.

                    "I enjoy picking out my own numbers, but have no delusions about the odds."

                    It's much easier to buy QPs and saves the time of accurately filling out bet slips if the odds are equal.

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: January 24, 2013, 11:34 pm - IP Logged

                      Anytime you successfully eliminate numbers from the number pool and play tickets for that draw........

                      You are playing number combinations that have better odds for that one draw.

                      Does it really matter that statisticaly you will have to "pay back" those odds? 

                      Especially if it just so happens that you win on that one particular draw?

                      You will never think twice about "The statistical laws of probability"

                      You will be happy that you won playing BETTER ODDS.

                      "Does it really matter that statisticaly you will have to "pay back" those odds?"

                      The statistical boys say it's still 39 to 1 regardless of the five previous winning outcomes in the last 39 drawings. Are they now saying some numbers go on vacation after a few wins and let some of the others numbers win?

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: January 24, 2013, 11:59 pm - IP Logged

                        SoCalNative,

                        As you pointed out, it took about 16 years for the 1636 drawings you've studied to be made. Since, at 2 per week, it will take at least about 1.7 MILLION years before all of the possible combinations of this Mega game are drawn, I'm surprised that you're surprised that you didn't find the repeats you looked for. A good exercise for you would be to calculate how often these 4+ and 5+ combos might be expected to recur on a random basis.

                        When you said, "But if you're looking for number combos that have a more likely chance of winning, my best advice is to use the search on the USA Mega site and make sure you're picking combos that have never come up before.," you made it clear where you stand regarding the issue of the effects of past drawings on the future. This short video might help you to see why your advice may not be of any help to Mega game players.

                        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8SkCh-n4rw 

                        --Jimmy4164

                        "I'm surprised that you're surprised that you didn't find the repeats you looked for."

                        Had he looked a little harder, he could have found at least one 4+1 repeat. The problem with too many in this thread is when they can't find something at a glance, they assume it doesn't exists.

                        No lottery with more than 20 numbers of combinations of five or more has ever existed long enough to even draw half its possible combinations but many have existed long enough to draw 1-2% of its possible combinations at which they will start repeating combinations, just check any 5/39 game after it had 5,000 drawings.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: January 25, 2013, 12:08 am - IP Logged

                          "Does it really matter that statisticaly you will have to "pay back" those odds?"

                          The statistical boys say it's still 39 to 1 regardless of the five previous winning outcomes in the last 39 drawings. Are they now saying some numbers go on vacation after a few wins and let some of the others numbers win?

                          No, and I don't know why you keep asking.


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                            Posted: January 25, 2013, 12:20 am - IP Logged

                            No, and I don't know why you keep asking.

                            Stack knows his $hit !

                            lol


                              United States
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                              Posted: January 25, 2013, 10:00 am - IP Logged

                              "Does it really matter that statisticaly you will have to "pay back" those odds?"

                              The statistical boys say it's still 39 to 1 regardless of the five previous winning outcomes in the last 39 drawings. Are they now saying some numbers go on vacation after a few wins and let some of the others numbers win?

                              Sounds like boney wants to have it BOTH ways in order to keep up his fight.

                                 
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