Suppose I told you...Prev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

Lucky Loser

Texas
United States
Member #86,149
January 30, 2010
1,890 Posts
Offline

Jul 7, 2013, 12:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Jul 7, 2013
Good questions all, but I think quality and quantitty are the only main ingreedyance. Right?

Quality, quantity, TIMING, PATIENCE...

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living
Ronnie316

100

United States
Member #116,261
September 7, 2011
20,244 Posts
Offline

Jul 7, 2013, 12:36 pm

Nice additions to the equation, I like it and it sounds like a winner. Blackapple will be proud of us.
duckman

Jacksonville Florida
United States
Member #23,017
October 6, 2005
1,111 Posts
Offline

Jul 7, 2013, 1:33 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Lucky Loser on Jul 7, 2013
Quality, quantity, TIMING, PATIENCE...

L.L.

Good recipe.

When considering claims of another, I would add verifiability.
duckman

Jacksonville Florida
United States
Member #23,017
October 6, 2005
1,111 Posts
Offline

Jul 7, 2013, 1:53 pm

Regarding verifiability:

Take Pick 3 for example. Anyone could say they liked numbers x-y-z (put in your own numbers) for a future drawing. Say it's for 1 state, 5 states, 10 states, or all states (the number of states doesn't matter). Add up what it would cost to play in those state(s) you specified and then see what numbers are drawn. Then calculate how much you have won or lost. Do this for at least 10 future draws and let's see the results. (Note: that's what is great about the Predictions page, it is all right there for everyone to see).

One red flag for me is when someone talks about a number set (or sets) and is not specific about where the prediction is for. If they mean those numbers to be for all states then that is fine, just be sure to include what it would have cost to play each drawing in those states when looking at win/loss amounts or ratios.

If you play enough numbers or enough states, someone will win boxes or straights. The key is to do this consistently and remember what it would have cost to play and subtract that from any winnings.
Lucky Loser

Texas
United States
Member #86,149
January 30, 2010
1,890 Posts
Offline

Jul 7, 2013, 2:10 pm

Quote: Originally posted by duckman on Jul 7, 2013
Regarding verifiability:

Take Pick 3 for example. Anyone could say they liked numbers x-y-z (put in your own numbers) for a future drawing. Say it's for 1 state, 5 states, 10 states, or all states (the number of states doesn't matter). Add up what it would cost to play in those state(s) you specified and then see what numbers are drawn. Then calculate how much you have won or lost. Do this for at least 10 future draws and let's see the results. (Note: that's what is great about the Predictions page, it is all right there for everyone to see).

One red flag for me is when someone talks about a number set (or sets) and is not specific about where the prediction is for. If they mean those numbers to be for all states then that is fine, just be sure to include what it would have cost to play each drawing in those states when looking at win/loss amounts or ratios.

If you play enough numbers or enough states, someone will win boxes or straights. The key is to do this consistently and remember what it would have cost to play and subtract that from any winnings.

See, now you're talking the right language. Sometimes, a win may not really be a win...only a win in the sense of matching the numbers. In terms of profit, though, it's very possible that all monies (losses) haven't been taken into account over a specific period and the win really nets a break even or recovery of a percentage of losses. This is what 95% of players fail to realize, but this is the real world of playing and actually winning.

This is why I say the game should be approached with a "business mindset". You're not winning, per say, until or if you've recovered monies invested (played) at some point...just like a real business. How long it took to get that specific hit will weigh heavily on whether or not money has, in fact, been made. To spend $10 per day and land a box hit for $40 after playing for (6) in a row still leaves the players $20 in the hole for reference's sake. Gotta get that box hit BEFORE or ON that 4th day to really be doing any good and establish consistency. TIMING.

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living
MADDOG10

50

Beautiful Florida
United States
Member #5,709
July 18, 2004
32,693 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 2:45 pm

@Lucky Loser , Romancandle , Jack-C , have any of you ever heard, a teacher doesn't look to see how many pupils have gotten grasp of a subject , it's how many of the pupils understand the subject.

Black Apple doesn't need to go to the prediction board to show you , me , or anyone else what his predictions are. Did either one of you ever do the search of Black Apple and then read what he has said about what was due for any given state? And what came out in the state he talked about.? I don't think so..!

I know all of you have heard the saying, " Don't let YE mouth overload YE azz " . Right ??

Let your fingers do the walking , go look, read his post, and then when you're done doing that you can come back and trash me..! Deal?? Until then, you all are like candles blowing in the wind looking for something that doesn't have to be there , nor could you or would ever accept anything at face value.

By the way , let me know what you find alright.!

The truth is like a Lion, you don't have to defend it

Let it loose, it will defend itself.
Stack47

Kentucky
United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,528 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 6:15 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Lucky Loser on Jul 7, 2013
See, now you're talking the right language. Sometimes, a win may not really be a win...only a win in the sense of matching the numbers. In terms of profit, though, it's very possible that all monies (losses) haven't been taken into account over a specific period and the win really nets a break even or recovery of a percentage of losses. This is what 95% of players fail to realize, but this is the real world of playing and actually winning.

This is why I say the game should be approached with a "business mindset". You're not winning, per say, until or if you've recovered monies invested (played) at some point...just like a real business. How long it took to get that specific hit will weigh heavily on whether or not money has, in fact, been made. To spend $10 per day and land a box hit for $40 after playing for (6) in a row still leaves the players $20 in the hole for reference's sake. Gotta get that box hit BEFORE or ON that 4th day to really be doing any good and establish consistency. TIMING.

L.L.

How about predicting either the digit 2 or 4 will be drawn in the first or second position in the next three drawings. The minimum wager to guarantee a win, if the conditions are met is betting $20 to win $5, but only if it happens on the next drawing. If it takes two drawings the bet is $40 to lose $15 and loss of $35 if it takes three drawings. Other than not losing the entire $60, I see nothing amazing about betting $60 to lose $35. The sad part is even though the prediction was accurate and those digits were drawn in two of he next three drawings, a player betting on all three will still lose $10. What is amazing about predicting a $10 loss?

However I am amazed when someone makes that type of prediction and then on the same post predicts one or two of 45 three digit numbers have a 200% chance of hitting in the next three or four days and I find out 10 of those numbers don't include the digits 2 or 4. I guess my question is, if the original prediction are truly amazing, then why make 10 other predictions that don't include any of the "truly amazing predictions"?

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/263212
duckman

Jacksonville Florida
United States
Member #23,017
October 6, 2005
1,111 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 6:49 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jul 8, 2013
How about predicting either the digit 2 or 4 will be drawn in the first or second position in the next three drawings. The minimum wager to guarantee a win, if the conditions are met is betting $20 to win $5, but only if it happens on the next drawing. If it takes two drawings the bet is $40 to lose $15 and loss of $35 if it takes three drawings. Other than not losing the entire $60, I see nothing amazing about betting $60 to lose $35. The sad part is even though the prediction was accurate and those digits were drawn in two of he next three drawings, a player betting on all three will still lose $10. What is amazing about predicting a $10 loss?

However I am amazed when someone makes that type of prediction and then on the same post predicts one or two of 45 three digit numbers have a 200% chance of hitting in the next three or four days and I find out 10 of those numbers don't include the digits 2 or 4. I guess my question is, if the original prediction are truly amazing, then why make 10 other predictions that don't include any of the "truly amazing predictions"?

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/263212

Yes, the bottom line is how much you would spend and how much you would win.

At least that is my criteria for what I would call prediction success or failure. I have looked at many of BlackApple's posts/predictions and the aggregate totals for a reasonable sample size is you lose more than you win. I think one thing many people don't realize is the number of bets you would have to make to cover all the picks in one of these predictions with actual number sets, root sums, etc.

Correct me if I am wrong, as I haven't read all of BlackApple's posts, but I don't recall BlackApple claiming that you would win more than you would lose by playing his/her predictions, so maybe BlackApple's definition of success is different than mine. Maybe BlackApple could clarify this.

At the end of the day for me though, success in this arena would be winning more than you lose.
Romancandle

Upacreek
United States
Member #136,298
December 8, 2012
432 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 8:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by MADDOG10 on Jul 8, 2013
@Lucky Loser , Romancandle , Jack-C , have any of you ever heard, a teacher doesn't look to see how many pupils have gotten grasp of a subject , it's how many of the pupils understand the subject.

Black Apple doesn't need to go to the prediction board to show you , me , or anyone else what his predictions are. Did either one of you ever do the search of Black Apple and then read what he has said about what was due for any given state? And what came out in the state he talked about.? I don't think so..!

I know all of you have heard the saying, " Don't let YE mouth overload YE azz " . Right ??

Let your fingers do the walking , go look, read his post, and then when you're done doing that you can come back and trash me..! Deal?? Until then, you all are like candles blowing in the wind looking for something that doesn't have to be there , nor could you or would ever accept anything at face value.

By the way , let me know what you find alright.!

Ouch...hot cigar in my eye!

One thing I learned on the way to or from school, is that you don't mess with a MADDOG...

You've been around LP a lot longer than me, so if my comments offended you, my apologies...

-RC
Ronnie316

100

United States
Member #116,261
September 7, 2011
20,244 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 8:50 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Romancandle on Jul 8, 2013
Ouch...hot cigar in my eye!

One thing I learned on the way to or from school, is that you don't mess with a MADDOG...

You've been around LP a lot longer than me, so if my comments offended you, my apologies...

That's why I just take a guys word for it (he is a guy) if he says he is an "amazing poster".

Especially if I have never read his posts and don't have any evidence to the contrary.
MADDOG10

50

Beautiful Florida
United States
Member #5,709
July 18, 2004
32,693 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 9:20 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Romancandle on Jul 8, 2013
Ouch...hot cigar in my eye!

One thing I learned on the way to or from school, is that you don't mess with a MADDOG...

You've been around LP a lot longer than me, so if my comments offended you, my apologies...

No apologies necessary, your comments didn't offend me. I understand everyone has thier own opinion and I wasn't trying to change yours, it's just that Blackapple gives people something to work with in contrast to thier own workout numbers. He doesn't put his numbers up so you can play them all, he gives people what to look for. It certainly wouldn't be feasable to play all the numbers.

That's where I think people go wrong when he posts his numbers for a certain state. I've known Blackapple for a long time here at LP, and he has a keen sense for what is due and what is not due.

He certainly can steer someone in the right direction when you're looking for a number to hit ,or certain pairs. He is an amazing predictor as far as I'm concerned, and with a little understanding of how he operates, you just might come to the same conclusion.

I know a lot of predictors who can't hold a candle ( no pun intended ) next to him , myself included when it comes down to what will come. Sorry for the ashes in your eye, wasn't meant to be offensive...

The truth is like a Lion, you don't have to defend it

Let it loose, it will defend itself.
Ronnie316

100

United States
Member #116,261
September 7, 2011
20,244 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 9:36 pm

Have a good night everyone.
onlymoney

United States
Member #128,782
June 2, 2012
5,431 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 10:18 pm

There must be a good reason why Blackapple has a full blue bar under his belt and stands as a top 25 poster. One can only earn that title by being proactive, intuitive, and creative.
Romancandle

Upacreek
United States
Member #136,298
December 8, 2012
432 Posts
Offline

Jul 8, 2013, 11:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on Jul 8, 2013
There must be a good reason why Blackapple has a full blue bar under his belt and stands as a top 25 poster. One can only earn that title by being proactive, intuitive, and creative.

Well I sure can't hold a candle to that

No worries Maddog10!!!... I see where you're coming from now!

Have a good night everyone!

-RC
Stack47

Kentucky
United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,528 Posts
Offline

Jul 9, 2013, 12:37 am

Quote: Originally posted by duckman on Jul 8, 2013
Yes, the bottom line is how much you would spend and how much you would win.

At least that is my criteria for what I would call prediction success or failure. I have looked at many of BlackApple's posts/predictions and the aggregate totals for a reasonable sample size is you lose more than you win. I think one thing many people don't realize is the number of bets you would have to make to cover all the picks in one of these predictions with actual number sets, root sums, etc.

Correct me if I am wrong, as I haven't read all of BlackApple's posts, but I don't recall BlackApple claiming that you would win more than you would lose by playing his/her predictions, so maybe BlackApple's definition of success is different than mine. Maybe BlackApple could clarify this.

At the end of the day for me though, success in this arena would be winning more than you lose.

I believe most of us would rather know how they get those numbers. Granted BA is giving us a list of numbers with potential hits, but so does every other ordinary predictor. Give us ten or less numbers and then we'll see if we're amazed or not.

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

Suppose I told you...Prev TopicNext Topic

Suppose I told you...Prev Topic Next Topic