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Odds of winning.

Topic closed. 70 replies. Last post 3 years ago by psykomo.

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helpmewin's avatar - dandy
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Posted: August 18, 2013, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

It's not a good system unless you are correct 95% of the time..lol

do you have any pick lipstickonlymoney's avatar - monkey kiss_avatar_picture_33164.jpg the red is pretty bright


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    Posted: August 18, 2013, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

    do you have any pick lipstickonlymoney's avatar - monkey kiss_avatar_picture_33164.jpg the red is pretty bright

    I ran out. I'll have to reorder from Avon. How about a lighter pink? Maybelline has a sweet fuity Utopia. It's part of their new fabrege fragrance and jewelry collection.

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: August 18, 2013, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

      86% would be good enough, then filter out some of the #'s for a smaller playlist. Easy.  Wink

      Each digit has a 27.1% chance of being drawn and if you can get $600 to $1 payoff, a profit could be made being correct in 50% of the drawings without any filters.

        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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        Posted: August 18, 2013, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

        Each digit has a 27.1% chance of being drawn and if you can get $600 to $1 payoff, a profit could be made being correct in 50% of the drawings without any filters.

        Each digit is one of ten digits. There are three digits.

        If you play a combination straight,
        you need to win within 500 drawings.

        If you play boxed with the same combination,
        you should win within 80 drawings.

        A mathematician would start playing pick 3 when the payout is much above 1000 for a straight combination.

        A gambler becomes a programmer with the illusion of winning net money at a game that a mathematician would never want to play.

        Some people win, many more loose and the house always wins.


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          Posted: August 18, 2013, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

          Each digit has a 27.1% chance of being drawn and if you can get $600 to $1 payoff, a profit could be made being correct in 50% of the drawings without any filters.

          When you start talking percentages and math, I am not sure if you are Jimmy with his multiple log on names.

          What if I told you I could be 100% correct a small percentage of the time?

          (Baby games still piss me off.)

          Of course if I am wrong then the whole system needs to REBOOT. However the focus must remain.

           

          BTW, I did catch your post in the NAPALM thread.

          Its hard for me to judge who should be promoted.  As many great posters from say five years ago, are simply dormant.  I dont spam.

          I try to post pictures of whats happening.  After all a lottery drawing is a subjective event.  I cant really say my numbers are BETTER than yours.

          I very strongly believe  the MATRIX WALK, holds the key.  .

          The same LOTTO ABSTRACT thats been codified and sold to many suckers on the planet.

          I cant predict the winning numbers for every game in the United States before cutoff and get to the Bodega on time b4 cutoff, all while having to cut in line some drunk fools and punch the clerk when he tries to rob me and make sure the change is correct, and then defend myself from assault when I tell the other customers my Lotto tickets have priority over your DutchMasters!!! especially when I am drunk.

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            Kentucky
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            Posted: August 18, 2013, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

            When you start talking percentages and math, I am not sure if you are Jimmy with his multiple log on names.

            What if I told you I could be 100% correct a small percentage of the time?

            (Baby games still piss me off.)

            Of course if I am wrong then the whole system needs to REBOOT. However the focus must remain.

             

            BTW, I did catch your post in the NAPALM thread.

            Its hard for me to judge who should be promoted.  As many great posters from say five years ago, are simply dormant.  I dont spam.

            I try to post pictures of whats happening.  After all a lottery drawing is a subjective event.  I cant really say my numbers are BETTER than yours.

            I very strongly believe  the MATRIX WALK, holds the key.  .

            The same LOTTO ABSTRACT thats been codified and sold to many suckers on the planet.

            I cant predict the winning numbers for every game in the United States before cutoff and get to the Bodega on time b4 cutoff, all while having to cut in line some drunk fools and punch the clerk when he tries to rob me and make sure the change is correct, and then defend myself from assault when I tell the other customers my Lotto tickets have priority over your DutchMasters!!! especially when I am drunk.

            Instead of talking percentages, I'll simply say each of the ten digits are part of 271 straight combinations. If you played them all straight and the game pays off at $600 to $1 like in my state, winning 50% of the bets will show a small profit.

            "What if I told you I could be 100% correct a small percentage of the time?"

            I agree because a broken clock has the correct time twice a day.

            "(Baby games still piss me off.)"

            And that's why the Lotteries went to the large jackpot games. The average player wants it simple; buy tickets, usually QPs to win millions and you can't do that playing the baby games. Even for pick-3 player who can pick one digit in 50% of the drawings, it's a no-brainer betting $542 to win $58 compared to $10 to win millions.

            As for membership status, if a new member has something to say, I'll read their posts and if a veteran player adds nothing but BS. I skip by them. Maybe some really believe they can win a jackpot by redundantly discussing how they will cash their tickets and spend their winnings, but I'd rather read ideas on how to win before discussing something 99.99% of the one ticket a drawing QP players will never achieve.

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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              Posted: August 18, 2013, 11:47 pm - IP Logged

              This is a pretty good explanation of odds and probabilities, from Wikipedia:

              The odds in favor of an event or a proposition is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen to the probability that the event will not happen. For example, the odds that a randomly chosen day of the week is a Sunday are one to six, which is sometimes written 1  : 6.

              'Odds' are an expression of relative probabilities. Often 'odds' are quoted as odds against, rather than as odds in favor. For example, the probability that a random day is a Sunday is one-seventh (1/7), hence the odds that a random day is a Sunday are 1 : 6. The odds against a random day being a Sunday are 6 : 1. The first figure represents the number of ways of failing to achieve the outcome and the second figure is the number of ways of achieving a favorable outcome.

              In probability theory and Bayesian statistics, odds may sometimes be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. This is often the case in problems of sequential decision making as for instance in problems of how to stop (online) on a last specific event which is solved by the odds algorithm.

              Stating "odds against" is a convenient way to propose a bet. When a bookmaker offers betting odds of 6 : 1 against some event occurring, it means that he is prepared to pay out a prize of six times the stake, and return the stake as well, to anyone who places a bet, by making the stake, that the event will occur. If the event does not occur, then the bookmaker keeps the stake. For example, a winning bet of 10 at 6 : 1 against will win '6 × 10 = 60' with the original 10 stake also being returned. Betting odds are skewed to ensure that the bookmaker makes a profit — if true odds were offered the bookmaker would break even in the long run — so the numbers do not represent the bookmaker's true odds.

              "Odds on" means that the event is more likely to happen than not. This is sometimes expressed with the smaller number first (1 : 2) but more often using the word "on" (2 : 1 on) meaning that the event is twice as likely to happen as not.

              ____________________________________________________________________//

              In casino games odds are always expressed as odds againt. If lotteries were more honest they'd be expressed that way too, but it's usually the reverse, instead of 175,000,000:1 it's expressed as 1:175,000,000. Yeah, it's the same thing expressed in different ways, but with a marketing twist.

              A lot of people mix up possibilities for probabilities. In roulette, there are three possible colors that can result, black, red, or green (0,00) but if you didn't bet the 0 or 00 you don't have green covered.

              On a crap table there is only one way a 12 can be rolled, a 6 and a 6. There are 36 possible combinations with a pair of dice. So the probability of rolling a 12 is 1 in 36, or 35:1 (35 to 1). But if somone bets it and it hits the payoff is 29 to 1 or 30 to 1, depending on the casino. Thus the house edge.

              Sone layouts were labeled 31 for 1 to attract business but when the word for is used it includes the bet.

              Lep

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                Kentucky
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                Posted: August 18, 2013, 11:57 pm - IP Logged

                Each digit is one of ten digits. There are three digits.

                If you play a combination straight,
                you need to win within 500 drawings.

                If you play boxed with the same combination,
                you should win within 80 drawings.

                A mathematician would start playing pick 3 when the payout is much above 1000 for a straight combination.

                A gambler becomes a programmer with the illusion of winning net money at a game that a mathematician would never want to play.

                Some people win, many more loose and the house always wins.

                "A mathematician would start playing pick 3 when the payout is much above 1000 for a straight combination."

                In most pick-3 games a player can bet $2 on a straight number, win $998 or bet $3 and win $1497. They can lose and make the same bet in the next 165 drawing, win and still collect $1000.

                "A gambler becomes a programmer with the illusion of winning net money at a game that a mathematician would never want to play."

                And that's probably why LB doesn't play baby games. Bookies will tell you even great bets depend on the timing and why the Texas Lottery stopped selling All or Nothing tickets. It works both ways because while the player in the about example might bet $497 to win $1000, the bookie is betting $1500 to win $3 in every one of those drawings.

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: August 19, 2013, 12:08 am - IP Logged

                  This is a pretty good explanation of odds and probabilities, from Wikipedia:

                  The odds in favor of an event or a proposition is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen to the probability that the event will not happen. For example, the odds that a randomly chosen day of the week is a Sunday are one to six, which is sometimes written 1  : 6.

                  'Odds' are an expression of relative probabilities. Often 'odds' are quoted as odds against, rather than as odds in favor. For example, the probability that a random day is a Sunday is one-seventh (1/7), hence the odds that a random day is a Sunday are 1 : 6. The odds against a random day being a Sunday are 6 : 1. The first figure represents the number of ways of failing to achieve the outcome and the second figure is the number of ways of achieving a favorable outcome.

                  In probability theory and Bayesian statistics, odds may sometimes be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. This is often the case in problems of sequential decision making as for instance in problems of how to stop (online) on a last specific event which is solved by the odds algorithm.

                  Stating "odds against" is a convenient way to propose a bet. When a bookmaker offers betting odds of 6 : 1 against some event occurring, it means that he is prepared to pay out a prize of six times the stake, and return the stake as well, to anyone who places a bet, by making the stake, that the event will occur. If the event does not occur, then the bookmaker keeps the stake. For example, a winning bet of 10 at 6 : 1 against will win '6 × 10 = 60' with the original 10 stake also being returned. Betting odds are skewed to ensure that the bookmaker makes a profit — if true odds were offered the bookmaker would break even in the long run — so the numbers do not represent the bookmaker's true odds.

                  "Odds on" means that the event is more likely to happen than not. This is sometimes expressed with the smaller number first (1 : 2) but more often using the word "on" (2 : 1 on) meaning that the event is twice as likely to happen as not.

                  ____________________________________________________________________//

                  In casino games odds are always expressed as odds againt. If lotteries were more honest they'd be expressed that way too, but it's usually the reverse, instead of 175,000,000:1 it's expressed as 1:175,000,000. Yeah, it's the same thing expressed in different ways, but with a marketing twist.

                  A lot of people mix up possibilities for probabilities. In roulette, there are three possible colors that can result, black, red, or green (0,00) but if you didn't bet the 0 or 00 you don't have green covered.

                  On a crap table there is only one way a 12 can be rolled, a 6 and a 6. There are 36 possible combinations with a pair of dice. So the probability of rolling a 12 is 1 in 36, or 35:1 (35 to 1). But if somone bets it and it hits the payoff is 29 to 1 or 30 to 1, depending on the casino. Thus the house edge.

                  Sone layouts were labeled 31 for 1 to attract business but when the word for is used it includes the bet.

                  Lep

                  "Sone layouts were labeled 31 for 1 to attract business but when the word for is used it includes the bet."

                  Pick-3 straight payoffs are actually $500 for $1 because they keep the $1 bet. If you noticed pick-3 payout charts don't give odds, but say how much each bet can win and basically it's the players who are saying "500 to 1" or "900 to 1" in the mythical online games.

                    helpmewin's avatar - dandy
                    u$a
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                    Posted: August 19, 2013, 3:10 am - IP Logged

                    "Sone layouts were labeled 31 for 1 to attract business but when the word for is used it includes the bet."

                    Pick-3 straight payoffs are actually $500 for $1 because they keep the $1 bet. If you noticed pick-3 payout charts don't give odds, but say how much each bet can win and basically it's the players who are saying "500 to 1" or "900 to 1" in the mythical online games.

                    your funny i barely have time to read your post and they goneGreen laugh

                      helpmewin's avatar - dandy
                      u$a
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                      Posted: August 19, 2013, 3:11 am - IP Logged

                      I ran out. I'll have to reorder from Avon. How about a lighter pink? Maybelline has a sweet fuity Utopia. It's part of their new fabrege fragrance and jewelry collection.

                      you know what works best Yes Nod

                        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                        Posted: August 21, 2013, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

                        This is a pretty good explanation of odds and probabilities, from Wikipedia:

                        The odds in favor of an event or a proposition is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen to the probability that the event will not happen. For example, the odds that a randomly chosen day of the week is a Sunday are one to six, which is sometimes written 1  : 6.

                        'Odds' are an expression of relative probabilities. Often 'odds' are quoted as odds against, rather than as odds in favor. For example, the probability that a random day is a Sunday is one-seventh (1/7), hence the odds that a random day is a Sunday are 1 : 6. The odds against a random day being a Sunday are 6 : 1. The first figure represents the number of ways of failing to achieve the outcome and the second figure is the number of ways of achieving a favorable outcome.

                        In probability theory and Bayesian statistics, odds may sometimes be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. This is often the case in problems of sequential decision making as for instance in problems of how to stop (online) on a last specific event which is solved by the odds algorithm.

                        Stating "odds against" is a convenient way to propose a bet. When a bookmaker offers betting odds of 6 : 1 against some event occurring, it means that he is prepared to pay out a prize of six times the stake, and return the stake as well, to anyone who places a bet, by making the stake, that the event will occur. If the event does not occur, then the bookmaker keeps the stake. For example, a winning bet of 10 at 6 : 1 against will win '6 × 10 = 60' with the original 10 stake also being returned. Betting odds are skewed to ensure that the bookmaker makes a profit — if true odds were offered the bookmaker would break even in the long run — so the numbers do not represent the bookmaker's true odds.

                        "Odds on" means that the event is more likely to happen than not. This is sometimes expressed with the smaller number first (1 : 2) but more often using the word "on" (2 : 1 on) meaning that the event is twice as likely to happen as not.

                        ____________________________________________________________________//

                        In casino games odds are always expressed as odds againt. If lotteries were more honest they'd be expressed that way too, but it's usually the reverse, instead of 175,000,000:1 it's expressed as 1:175,000,000. Yeah, it's the same thing expressed in different ways, but with a marketing twist.

                        A lot of people mix up possibilities for probabilities. In roulette, there are three possible colors that can result, black, red, or green (0,00) but if you didn't bet the 0 or 00 you don't have green covered.

                        On a crap table there is only one way a 12 can be rolled, a 6 and a 6. There are 36 possible combinations with a pair of dice. So the probability of rolling a 12 is 1 in 36, or 35:1 (35 to 1). But if somone bets it and it hits the payoff is 29 to 1 or 30 to 1, depending on the casino. Thus the house edge.

                        Sone layouts were labeled 31 for 1 to attract business but when the word for is used it includes the bet.

                        Lep

                        You cut out some.

                        The odds against a random day being a Sunday are 6 : 1.

                        If I translate it to the opposite, that would be 1:6 or 1/6. There you get a conflict in comprehension and putting things right.

                        The chance that a random day is not Sunday, or just the chance that any day is not a Sunday. 1-1/7 = 6/7.
                        p(!Sunday)=6/7
                        6/7 is correct for mathematicians.

                        A douzaine pays two to one, the dealer pushes two chips against one winning chip.

                        There also is a nice article about bookmakers. The articles change from time to time, not always to better.

                        I have seen no translation into French, German or Dutch. Making a ratio of what I call positive and negative chances, you just might get dizzy of it. The word might come from gambling. It is kind of putting the two chance weights on a relative scale. Now you might come up with a difference for Odds.
                        So the difference for the Sunday question would be 5, from 1:6, 7 days, 1 Sunday, 6 other days. 5 might be positive or negative, +5 or -5.

                        A interesting calculation might be Kelly criterion, which I saw before explained as an expectancy. Maybe it is derived of the classical mathematics, they just gave it a name. I don't know.

                        !Sunday = +5
                        Sunday = -5

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                          Posted: August 21, 2013, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

                          "Sone layouts were labeled 31 for 1 to attract business but when the word for is used it includes the bet."

                          Pick-3 straight payoffs are actually $500 for $1 because they keep the $1 bet. If you noticed pick-3 payout charts don't give odds, but say how much each bet can win and basically it's the players who are saying "500 to 1" or "900 to 1" in the mythical online games.

                          When I take you by math and word, it is 500:-1, not 500:1, as 1 is gone.
                          Your odds would be 1:999 and it pays 500:-1 or do you prefer 499:1 as 499 is the net payout and according to the article and logic you must substract the negative value (500-1=499).

                          And above, you don't win, you loose if you don't beat the odds double or better. What some players did, is history, past tense. Some players may always win by pure luck without reasoning or system.

                            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                            Posted: August 21, 2013, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

                            "A mathematician would start playing pick 3 when the payout is much above 1000 for a straight combination."

                            In most pick-3 games a player can bet $2 on a straight number, win $998 or bet $3 and win $1497. They can lose and make the same bet in the next 165 drawing, win and still collect $1000.

                            "A gambler becomes a programmer with the illusion of winning net money at a game that a mathematician would never want to play."

                            And that's probably why LB doesn't play baby games. Bookies will tell you even great bets depend on the timing and why the Texas Lottery stopped selling All or Nothing tickets. It works both ways because while the player in the about example might bet $497 to win $1000, the bookie is betting $1500 to win $3 in every one of those drawings.

                            In most pick-3 games a player can bet $2 on a straight number, win $998 or bet $3 and win $1497. They can lose and make the same bet in the next 165 drawing, win and still collect $1000.

                            A player can do alot in your fantasies. You can run through all kind of possible scenarios, for your buck you mostly can get 500 dollars if you win, and bottom line is that you if you pick unlucky, that one won't even show up after 3000 drawings while the average is 1000 drawings. If you can time your bet by mathematic rule, then you are not the only one, and all math teachers would play and win. All programmers would roll in money.

                            Bookies tell you anything, if you have your timing right and you have to share with many, be prepared to get a small amount.

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: August 24, 2013, 1:34 am - IP Logged

                              In most pick-3 games a player can bet $2 on a straight number, win $998 or bet $3 and win $1497. They can lose and make the same bet in the next 165 drawing, win and still collect $1000.

                              A player can do alot in your fantasies. You can run through all kind of possible scenarios, for your buck you mostly can get 500 dollars if you win, and bottom line is that you if you pick unlucky, that one won't even show up after 3000 drawings while the average is 1000 drawings. If you can time your bet by mathematic rule, then you are not the only one, and all math teachers would play and win. All programmers would roll in money.

                              Bookies tell you anything, if you have your timing right and you have to share with many, be prepared to get a small amount.

                              "A player can do alot in your fantasies."

                              It's called gambling; ever hear of the concept?

                              "You can run through all kind of possible scenarios, for your buck you mostly can get 500 dollars if you win, and bottom line is that you if you pick unlucky, that one won't even show up after 3000 drawings while the average is 1000 drawings."

                              You're getting close; a player bets and either wins or loses. In your pick-3 game, were all the straight digits numbers drawn once in last 1000 drawings?

                              The real fantasy is saying "on average" or "probable" when the results look nothing like that. "On average" each digit in each digit position should be drawn 100 times in 1000 drawings. Can you show me one Pick-3 drawing history where none of the digits were drawn more than 105 times or less than 95 times in any 1000 drawing period?

                              "If you can time your bet by mathematic rule, then you are not the only one, and all math teachers would play and win."

                              If you time your QP bet, you'll get the same results without ever passing one math course after the 3rd grade.

                              "Bookies tell you anything, if you have your timing right and you have to share with many, be prepared to get a small amount. "

                              Are the odds the same for the bookies as the player when the player bets 10 different straight combos, can only win on one of them, and the bookie has 990 other combos that beats the player?

                              The last time I looked pick-3 games have various payout limits and when the number of ticket sales reaches that amount the game is sold out. If the payout limit is $1.5 million, each player that wins gets $500 for every $1 straight ticket. Are you suggesting they should share with the players who were shut-out?