Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 16, 2017, 5:37 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

How to Unseat Stack47 & Sergem from their Perch!

Topic closed. 81 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Stack47.

Page 4 of 6
1.68
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 27, 2014, 5:38 pm - IP Logged

"How was that possible?"

My guess is that the question doesn't need explaining or an answer. It was a rhetorical question.

52.25% is ahead of the game.

In that case, maybe I should be proud of my 56.26% Prize Ratio last year in the Pick-4.  And that was done by strictly betting on the same set of 4 digit numbers made up of zeros and ones only.  Maybe it's never occurred to me to look highly on that random result because 56.25% was well within the first standard deviation from the expected 50.00%.  Besides, the $31,260 losses were somewhat off-putting.

    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
    Texas
    United States
    Member #55889
    October 23, 2007
    5738 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 27, 2014, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

    In that case, maybe I should be proud of my 56.26% Prize Ratio last year in the Pick-4.  And that was done by strictly betting on the same set of 4 digit numbers made up of zeros and ones only.  Maybe it's never occurred to me to look highly on that random result because 56.25% was well within the first standard deviation from the expected 50.00%.  Besides, the $31,260 losses were somewhat off-putting.

    Well jimmy, it's ok with me if you want to be proud of your prize ratio.

    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7340 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 27, 2014, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

      "How was that possible?"

      My guess is that the question doesn't need explaining or an answer. It was a rhetorical question.

      52.25% is ahead of the game.

      Jimmy thinks he simulates actual lottery play, but all he was doing was randomly distributing 50% of the ticket sales as prizes. The only thing I was trying to prove was that I could systematically create 20 pick-3 lines and get at least a box hit in every jurisdiction in a month and 29,360 trails were more than enough to prove that Jimmy's QP "house edge" can be beaten.


        United States
        Member #93947
        July 10, 2010
        2180 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 27, 2014, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

        Stack47 asked, "How was that possible?
        If he doesn't know, I'm not going to waste my time trying to explain it to him.  Perhaps someone else will.

        BTW, we were discussing his predictions this year in the Georgia and Texas All or Nothing games, which are posted in the "Other" category on the Boards.  Why do you think he wants to change the subject to his predicted $14020 LOSSES in the Pick-3 LAST year?
        --Jimmy4164

        Getting back to the thread topic...

          Avatar
          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
          7340 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 28, 2014, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

          Getting back to the thread topic...

          Will you be posting the hit ratio of your 50 QPs or are you all talk and no action?

          Hot Predictors (Last 30 Days by Hit Ratio)

              Member  Hit Ratio  Picks  Hits 
          1.Stack4722.36%4,400984
          2.SergeM21.86%40789
          3.Richardlustig20.00%204
          4.tony86914.01%10715
          5.lamarrstar13.05%7,306954
          6.Shunan4510.76%13014
          7.JADELottery6.66%151
          8.alden3216.62%18112
          9.pointspread6.04%5,710345
          10.aux8b5.58%60934
            Avatar
            Kentucky
            United States
            Member #32652
            February 14, 2006
            7340 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 28, 2014, 5:29 pm - IP Logged

            In that case, maybe I should be proud of my 56.26% Prize Ratio last year in the Pick-4.  And that was done by strictly betting on the same set of 4 digit numbers made up of zeros and ones only.  Maybe it's never occurred to me to look highly on that random result because 56.25% was well within the first standard deviation from the expected 50.00%.  Besides, the $31,260 losses were somewhat off-putting.

            "Maybe it's never occurred to me to look highly on that random result because 56.25% was well within the first standard deviation from the expected 50.00%."

            Just the fact you said "expected 50%" proves you don't have a clue how to apply a mathematical house edge. But than again, you're always quoting Don Calin and his clear as mud explanation of leaving a place bet ON for a come out roll as an example, is probably the reason for some of your confusion. 

            "Yes, if the seven is rolled on the comeout you will only lose $1. But suppose you roll a 6 followed by a 7; you would lose $11 so all $11 is at risk."

            Catlin ought to know place bets and odds bets are OFF on a come out roll unless the player wants them ON. And he ought to know place and odds bets are ON after the point (6) is established unless the player wants them OFF. A 7 rolled after the 6 is irrelevant to the question and is useless information. 

            Speaking of snake oil salesmen.

              Avatar
              Kentucky
              United States
              Member #32652
              February 14, 2006
              7340 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 31, 2014, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

              Getting back to the thread topic...

              Take a careful look at the last two months.

              Stack47: Statistics Summary Summary

              Statistic

              Current Month

              Last Month

              Current Year

              Last Year

              Lifetime

              Picks

              4,420

              4,420

              23,515

              48,902

              75,604

              Hits

              996

              996

              5,136

              4,240

              10,048

              Hit Ratio

              22.53%

              22.53%

              21.84%

              8.67%

              13.29%

              Winnings

              $4,072

              $3,896

              $21,972

              $31,362

              $55,931

              Prize Ratio

              46.06%

              44.07%

              46.83%

              46.42%

              46.39%

              Could QPs be that consistent?

                Avatar
                Kentucky
                United States
                Member #32652
                February 14, 2006
                7340 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 31, 2014, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

                RJOh,
                My suggested list of sets above were generated at Random.org.  A system?  I don't think so.

                Again, systematic lottery play produces no better results than random selections.

                Stack47's "Perch" is based on "Hit" ratios, not "Prize" ratios.  There are no payoffs for high "Hit" ratios.  His [roughly] 20% hit ratios and 50% prize ratios in the Georgia and Texas All or Nothing games are the probabilistically expected results of random play.

                The fact that you don't understand what the "sad fact" is, is another sad fact.
                --Jimmy4164

                How about explaining how a 50% prize ratio is "probabilistically expected" when it's closer to 25%?

                You really surprised me by taking the bait and responding in the "where in the world is Carmen Santago?" thread and now you're almost an outcast. But after thinking about it, you are terrible at understanding common sense.


                  United States
                  Member #93947
                  July 10, 2010
                  2180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 31, 2014, 5:41 pm - IP Logged

                  How about explaining how a 50% prize ratio is "probabilistically expected" when it's closer to 25%?

                  You really surprised me by taking the bait and responding in the "where in the world is Carmen Santago?" thread and now you're almost an outcast. But after thinking about it, you are terrible at understanding common sense.

                  Your definition of "expected" obviously differs from that of scientists, mathematicians, and engineers.
                  Click here for a better understanding...

                  "People's intuitive conceptions of randomness depart systematically from the laws of chance.  It appears that people expect the essential characteristics of a chance process to be represented not only globally in the entire sequence, but also locally, in each of its parts.  For instance, people expect even short sequences of heads and tails to reflect the fairness of a coin and contain roughly 50% heads and 50% tails.  This conception of chance has been described as a 'belief in the law of small numbers' according to which the law of large numbers applies to small samples as well (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971).  A locally representative sequence, however, deviates systematically from chance expectation: It contains too many alternations and not enough long runs."

                  I hope this helps.

                  --Jimmy4164

                    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                    Economy class
                    Belgium
                    Member #123700
                    February 27, 2012
                    4035 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 31, 2014, 6:06 pm - IP Logged

                    AON TX 12/24

                    121
                    11144
                    104356
                    948400
                    8245025
                    7627264
                    6853776
                    5627264
                    4245025
                    348400
                    24356
                    1144
                    01
                    win595852
                    no win2108304
                    total2704156
                    win0,220347
                    no win0,779653
                    total1

                    Your average hit score might be: 22%

                    I am busy.

                      Avatar
                      Kentucky
                      United States
                      Member #32652
                      February 14, 2006
                      7340 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 31, 2014, 10:56 pm - IP Logged

                      Your definition of "expected" obviously differs from that of scientists, mathematicians, and engineers.
                      Click here for a better understanding...

                      "People's intuitive conceptions of randomness depart systematically from the laws of chance.  It appears that people expect the essential characteristics of a chance process to be represented not only globally in the entire sequence, but also locally, in each of its parts.  For instance, people expect even short sequences of heads and tails to reflect the fairness of a coin and contain roughly 50% heads and 50% tails.  This conception of chance has been described as a 'belief in the law of small numbers' according to which the law of large numbers applies to small samples as well (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971).  A locally representative sequence, however, deviates systematically from chance expectation: It contains too many alternations and not enough long runs."

                      I hope this helps.

                      --Jimmy4164

                      "His [roughly] 20% hit ratios and 50% prize ratios in the Georgia and Texas All or Nothing games are the probabilistically expected results of random play."

                      Instead of suggesting I read a 43 year-old articles on the probability of Dr. J making his next dunk attempt, you really ought to read and understand the rules of these All or Nothing games. Or better yet, just look at the same chart Serge first posted well over a year ago. There are 2,704,156 possible outcomes and it costs $2 to buy each outcome and if each outcome was sold, sales are $5,408,312. From the sales, $980,100 is deducted for all the 4 or 8 number matches, $968,000 for 3 and 9 number matches, $435,600 for 2 and 10, $144,000 for 1 and 11, and a possible two $250,000 prizes. The game pays off at 56%.

                      "Maybe it's never occurred to me to look highly on that random result because 56.25% was well within the first standard deviation from the expected 50.00%."

                      When I read that I wrongly assumed that was your ALL or Nothing statistics because that was what we were discussing. But then again, your communication skills were proved many times to be terrible and your math skills are almost as bad. Try focusing on the All or Nothing statistics and you'll see it's clear the prize money is distributed to only 22.14% of the total possible outcomes.

                      Is it that difficult to understand, even if 100% of the ticket sales was returned as prize money, 77.96% of the total possible outcomes still win nothing.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19891 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: August 16, 2014, 6:25 pm - IP Logged

                        Will you be posting the hit ratio of your 50 QPs or are you all talk and no action?

                        Hot Predictors (Last 30 Days by Hit Ratio)

                            Member  Hit Ratio  Picks  Hits 
                        1.Stack4722.36%4,400984
                        2.SergeM21.86%40789
                        3.Richardlustig20.00%204
                        4.tony86914.01%10715
                        5.lamarrstar13.05%7,306954
                        6.Shunan4510.76%13014
                        7.JADELottery6.66%151
                        8.alden3216.62%18112
                        9.pointspread6.04%5,710345
                        10.aux8b5.58%60934

                        Haven't seen any posts on this thread for a while so I'm assuming everyone has moved on to other topics.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          Avatar
                          Kentucky
                          United States
                          Member #32652
                          February 14, 2006
                          7340 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 17, 2014, 6:30 pm - IP Logged

                          Jimmy was positive his numbers could do better, but apparently nobody used them.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19891 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 18, 2014, 11:18 am - IP Logged

                            Jimmy was positive his numbers could do better, but apparently nobody used them.

                            Why would anybody ever use any numbers of Jimmy when he's never won anything using them?

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              Avatar
                              Kentucky
                              United States
                              Member #32652
                              February 14, 2006
                              7340 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 18, 2014, 3:18 pm - IP Logged

                              Why would anybody ever use any numbers of Jimmy when he's never won anything using them?

                              Maybe they would because Jimmy is way overdue for win, but like most of us, I doubt his predictions are meant for actual play. While I might close to the top in "Hit ratio", my predictions on average lose over 50% of the wagers. I can't lose compared to what Jimmy is suggesting because his predictions will on average lose more every drawing than the cost of my tickets.

                              jimmy4164: Statistics Summary

                              Summary

                               Statistic  Current Month  Last Month  Current Year  Last Year  Lifetime 
                              Picks5,86010,85040,210146,970394,748
                              Hits631234802261,679
                                  Hit Ratio1.08%1.13%1.19%0.15%0.43%
                              Winnings$1,050$2,210$6,901$72,946$171,631
                                  Prize Ratio17.62%20.04%16.88%49.63%43.41%