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How to Unseat Stack47 & Sergem from their Perch!

Topic closed. 81 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Stack47.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19825 Posts
Online
Posted: August 26, 2014, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

That's interesting stuff, RJ and it really shows how much the odds are stacked against us. It doesn't look like someone will be knocking anyone off a perch predicting either of these games.


                                  CALCULATE ODDS by RJOh
  combination size     2-9     5
  basic pool size up to 100    75
  (B) Bonus pool size          15
  smallest match no (B) number 3
  largest match with bonus     5
  smallest match with bonus    0
  tickets/chances per draw                    * enter P for prize amounts
 possible combos of 5/75 + 1/15 numbers = 258890850
 MATCH    ODDS              WINNING COMBOS   ODDS 15 LINES            MATCHES   PRIZE
 5/5+B    1:258890850         1               1:17259390                 0.00  $ 15000000
 5/5+0    1:18492204          14              1:1232814                  0.00  $ 1000000
 4/5+B    1:739688            350             1:49313                    0.00  $ 5000
 4/5+0    1:52835             4900            1:3522                     0.00  $ 500
 3/5+B    1:10720             24150           1:715                      0.00  $ 50
 3/5+0    1:766               338100          1:51                       0.02  $ 5
 2/5+B    1:473               547400          1:32                       0.03  $ 5
 1/5+B    1:56                4584475         1:4                        0.27  $ 2
 0/5+B    1:21                12103014        1:1                        0.70  $ 1
  ________________________________________________________________________________________
 overall odds 1 :14.7         1.02 wins                          % OF JACKPOT: 63 %
  17602404 possible wins = 6.79%        expect 15 lines to pay $1

As I'm learning to rewrite my old GW-Basic programs for Windows 8 using a different Basic I'm adding some additional features to them and one I added to my odd calculator was entering prizes amounts and calculating the expected wins amounts for the number of lines played. 

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
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    Posted: August 26, 2014, 6:36 pm - IP Logged

    Isn't that a 2 dollar combination game?


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
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      Posted: August 26, 2014, 10:46 pm - IP Logged


      Click here for more recent detail...

      ...and then compare to other Pick-5 predictors.

      I wonder why this guy doesn't predict Pick-5?

      Now, ask yourself why MOST people average 12-20 cents return on their Pick-5 purchases.  And why do my odd 2 digit Pick-5 selections seem to do no better or worse than  MOST people?

      And then look up the meaning of Convergence.

      AS I should have expected.  The purpose of this thread was to make people aware that "Hit Ratios" are of no value in lotteries, and consequently, having a "Top Predictors" category based on them is a waste of time.  Anyone who wishes can quickly and easily get their Hit Ratios in the Georgia and Texas All or Nothing games up to 20%. This is true because of the structure of the games, NOT because of any particular skill on the part of people like Sergem or Stack47. 

      It's really quite pathetic how these people evade my questions and respond with silly questions of their own.  Pathetic.

        Avatar
        Kentucky
        United States
        Member #32652
        February 14, 2006
        7308 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 26, 2014, 11:22 pm - IP Logged

        AS I should have expected.  The purpose of this thread was to make people aware that "Hit Ratios" are of no value in lotteries, and consequently, having a "Top Predictors" category based on them is a waste of time.  Anyone who wishes can quickly and easily get their Hit Ratios in the Georgia and Texas All or Nothing games up to 20%. This is true because of the structure of the games, NOT because of any particular skill on the part of people like Sergem or Stack47. 

        It's really quite pathetic how these people evade my questions and respond with silly questions of their own.  Pathetic.

        I can't speak for Serge, but my being at or near the top of Hit Ratio is a side effect from mathematically arranging 24 numbers into groups.

        "and easily get their Hit Ratios in the Georgia and Texas All or Nothing games up to 20%."

        What would be the point of anybody easily getting a Hit Ratio lower than the game probability; 22.2%?

        When are you going to show all of us how easy it really is?

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19825 Posts
          Online
          Posted: August 26, 2014, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

          Isn't that a 2 dollar combination game?

          MM is still $1 per regular ticket however my chart is based on lines played not the cost per ticket.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19825 Posts
            Online
            Posted: August 26, 2014, 11:34 pm - IP Logged

            I can't speak for Serge, but my being at or near the top of Hit Ratio is a side effect from mathematically arranging 24 numbers into groups.

            "and easily get their Hit Ratios in the Georgia and Texas All or Nothing games up to 20%."

            What would be the point of anybody easily getting a Hit Ratio lower than the game probability; 22.2%?

            When are you going to show all of us how easy it really is?

            When are you going to show all of us how easy it really is?

            He's probably waiting for a game with these odds.


                                              CALCULATE ODDS by RJOh
              combination size     2-9     9
              basic pool size up to 100    100
              (B) Bonus pool size          100
              smallest match no (B) number 3
              largest match with bonus     9
              smallest match with bonus    0
              tickets/chances per draw
             possible combos of 9/100 + 1/100 numbers = 1.90223181E14
             MATCH    ODDS              WINNING COMBOS   ODDS 1 LINES             MATCHES
             9/9+B    1:1.90223181E14     1               1:1.90223181E14            0.00
             9/9+0    1:1.92144627E12     99              1:1.92144627E12            0.00
             8/9+B    1:2.32262736E11     819             1:2.32262736E11            0.00
             8/9+0    1:2.34608824E9      81081           1:2.34608824E9             0.00
             7/9+B    1:1.29034853E9      147420          1:1.29034853E9             0.00
             7/9+0    1:13033824          14594580        1:13033824                 0.00
             6/9+B    1:18640669          10204740        1:18640669                 0.00
             6/9+0    1:188290            1.01026926E9    1:188290                   0.00
             5/9+B    1:564869            336756420       1:564869                   0.00
             5/9+0    1:5706              3.33388856E10   1:5706                     0.00
             4/9+B    1:32464             5.85956171E9    1:32464                    0.00
             4/9+0    1:328               5.80096609E11   1:328                      0.00
             3/9+B    1:3397              5.59913674E10   1:3397                     0.00
             3/9+0    1:34                5.54314538E12   1:34                       0.03
             2/9+B    1:653               2.91383647E11   1:653                      0.00
             1/9+B    1:249               7.64882073E11   1:249                      0.00
             0/9+B    1:243               7.8376805E11    1:243                      0.00
              ________________________________________________________________________________________
             overall odds 1 :23.6         0.04 wins
            8.05983762E12 possible wins = 4.23%      * enter P for payouts and then
             enter letter for :CLASSIC LOTTO,ROLLING CASH5,MEGAMILLIONS or POWERBALL

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Avatar
              Kentucky
              United States
              Member #32652
              February 14, 2006
              7308 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 29, 2014, 12:23 am - IP Logged


              Click here for more recent detail...

              ...and then compare to other Pick-5 predictors.

              I wonder why this guy doesn't predict Pick-5?

              Now, ask yourself why MOST people average 12-20 cents return on their Pick-5 purchases.  And why do my odd 2 digit Pick-5 selections seem to do no better or worse than  MOST people?

              And then look up the meaning of Convergence.

              jimmy4164TexasCash 53 of 501-11-12-21-2201-07-12-14-21$10
              jimmy4164TexasCash 53 of 501-02-11-12-2101-07-12-14-21$10
              jimmy4164TexasCash 53 of 501-02-12-21-2201-07-12-14-21$10

              Those 3 lines don't look like QPs to me and neither does any of your pick-5 predictions; looks more like an abbreviated wheel. But anyways, congrats on your $30 hit and good luck trying to unseat me.

              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 1102-05-07-12-13-14-15-17-19-20-22-2302-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$500
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 902-03-05-06-10-12-13-14-18-19-20-2302-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$10
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 801-02-04-05-09-12-13-14-16-19-20-2302-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 802-05-08-11-12-13-14-19-20-21-23-2402-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 802-03-06-07-10-12-13-15-17-18-19-2202-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 803-05-06-07-10-14-15-17-18-20-22-2302-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 401-02-04-08-09-11-12-13-16-19-21-2402-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 401-04-05-08-09-11-14-16-20-21-23-2402-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 401-03-04-06-07-09-10-15-16-17-18-2202-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 403-06-07-08-10-11-15-17-18-21-22-2402-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$2
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 301-04-07-08-09-11-15-16-17-21-22-2402-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$10
              Stack47TexasAll or Nothing NightMatch 101-03-04-06-08-09-10-11-16-18-21-2402-05-07-10-12-13-14-15-19-20-22-23$500

              .