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How to Unseat Stack47 & Sergem from their Perch!

Topic closed. 81 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Stack47.

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United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
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Posted: August 22, 2014, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

Maybe they would because Jimmy is way overdue for win, but like most of us, I doubt his predictions are meant for actual play. While I might close to the top in "Hit ratio", my predictions on average lose over 50% of the wagers. I can't lose compared to what Jimmy is suggesting because his predictions will on average lose more every drawing than the cost of my tickets.

jimmy4164: Statistics Summary

Summary

 Statistic  Current Month  Last Month  Current Year  Last Year  Lifetime 
Picks5,86010,85040,210146,970394,748
Hits631234802261,679
    Hit Ratio1.08%1.13%1.19%0.15%0.43%
Winnings$1,050$2,210$6,901$72,946$171,631
    Prize Ratio17.62%20.04%16.88%49.63%43.41%


Click here for more recent detail...

...and then compare to other Pick-5 predictors.

I wonder why this guy doesn't predict Pick-5?

Now, ask yourself why MOST people average 12-20 cents return on their Pick-5 purchases.  And why do my odd 2 digit Pick-5 selections seem to do no better or worse than  MOST people?

And then look up the meaning of Convergence.

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
    4035 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: August 22, 2014, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

    Pick 5 is not a game to obtain a high percentage of hits. You would have to bet on one combination and raise the bet.
    Eventually the small Texan pick 5 game is good to play.

      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
      Economy class
      Belgium
      Member #123700
      February 27, 2012
      4035 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 22, 2014, 5:06 pm - IP Logged

      Texas all or nothing

      Hot Predictors (Last 30 Days by Hit Ratio)

          Member  Hit Ratio  Picks  Hits 
      1.Wendy G23.52%6816
      2.SergeM23.18%6916
      jinxsrt23.18%22051
      4.Stack4723.09%1,940448
      5.lamarrstar21.86%590129
      6.MADDOG1021.76%5,6501,230
      7.geos*5666!21.66%3,600780
      8.Lee21.50%1,060228
      9.helpmewin21.30%5,0501,076
      10.tastylovebug20.31%32065

      Highest Lifetime Hit Ratio

          Member  Hit Ratio  Picks  Hits 
      1.SexWithNatalie24.28%7017
      2.JoshuaAlexander24.00%256
      3.Litebets2723.91%1,225293
      4.SergeM22.78%4,7881,091
      5.jinxsrt22.57%948214
      6.Shunan4522.00%10022
      7.BigTymer21.90%5,0451,105
      8.Stack4721.82%35,0487,649
      9.JonnyBgood0721.27%91,48819,464
      10.Wendy G21.23%810172
        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
        Economy class
        Belgium
        Member #123700
        February 27, 2012
        4035 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: August 22, 2014, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

        Probably the best coach to win is Natalie.


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: August 22, 2014, 5:21 pm - IP Logged

          Probably the best coach to win is Natalie.


          Are there any lottery commissions paying bonuses for high "Hit Ratios" at Lottery Post?

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            Kentucky
            United States
            Member #32652
            February 14, 2006
            7308 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: August 23, 2014, 12:40 am - IP Logged


            Click here for more recent detail...

            ...and then compare to other Pick-5 predictors.

            I wonder why this guy doesn't predict Pick-5?

            Now, ask yourself why MOST people average 12-20 cents return on their Pick-5 purchases.  And why do my odd 2 digit Pick-5 selections seem to do no better or worse than  MOST people?

            And then look up the meaning of Convergence.

            I'll give credit where credit is due because at least you make predictions unlike most of our wana-be system/numbers sellers. LP's pick-5 prediction program doesn't show a $1 payout for matching 2 numbers so it couldn't give an accurate prize or hit ratio.

            "Now, ask yourself why MOST people average 12-20 cents return on their Pick-5 purchases."

            One out of every 9 tickets wins something so on average 8 players win nothing and if the win is a 2 number match, the ninth player wins nothing too. Because at least a three number match is necessary to get credit in the LP program, my hit ratio slightly over 1% in less than 200 attempts still beats probability. And even my prize ratio is better than the 9.7% probability.

            If I recall correctly I posted Rolling Cash 5 predictions testing an idea. My pick-3 predictions from last year were in response to one of the 50 numbers (good for all states) predictions and my 20 picks did get at least one box hit in every state/provincial jurisdiction.

              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
              Economy class
              Belgium
              Member #123700
              February 27, 2012
              4035 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: August 23, 2014, 5:32 am - IP Logged


              Are there any lottery commissions paying bonuses for high "Hit Ratios" at Lottery Post?

              Are there any lottery commissions paying bonuses for high "Winnings" at Lottery Post?

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19825 Posts
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                Posted: August 23, 2014, 11:54 am - IP Logged


                Are there any lottery commissions paying bonuses for high "Hit Ratios" at Lottery Post?

                Do you think any lottery commissions care what the high "Hit Ratios" at Lottery Post are?  That information is only for LP members to compare themselves with each others.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19825 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: August 23, 2014, 11:59 am - IP Logged

                  I'll give credit where credit is due because at least you make predictions unlike most of our wana-be system/numbers sellers. LP's pick-5 prediction program doesn't show a $1 payout for matching 2 numbers so it couldn't give an accurate prize or hit ratio.

                  "Now, ask yourself why MOST people average 12-20 cents return on their Pick-5 purchases."

                  One out of every 9 tickets wins something so on average 8 players win nothing and if the win is a 2 number match, the ninth player wins nothing too. Because at least a three number match is necessary to get credit in the LP program, my hit ratio slightly over 1% in less than 200 attempts still beats probability. And even my prize ratio is better than the 9.7% probability.

                  If I recall correctly I posted Rolling Cash 5 predictions testing an idea. My pick-3 predictions from last year were in response to one of the 50 numbers (good for all states) predictions and my 20 picks did get at least one box hit in every state/provincial jurisdiction.

                  Does all states pick5 games pay for a match2 or is that unique to only some pick5 games such as Ohio's Rolling Cash5?

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                    Economy class
                    Belgium
                    Member #123700
                    February 27, 2012
                    4035 Posts
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                    Posted: August 24, 2014, 4:53 am - IP Logged
                    1.SergeM25.53%4712

                    I slipped upwards with playing one combination for two drawings. Not many players try to attempt to go for winning more often in simulation. They probably play all kind of different games. Notice that with a 3/12 or 9/12, there would have been a net win for yesterday.

                    win0,220347
                    no win0,779653

                    I won 1 of 2, that was 0.5 against the 0.22 probability, this time.

                      Avatar
                      Kentucky
                      United States
                      Member #32652
                      February 14, 2006
                      7308 Posts
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                      Posted: August 24, 2014, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

                      Does all states pick5 games pay for a match2 or is that unique to only some pick5 games such as Ohio's Rolling Cash5?

                      Some 5/39 games like the Florida Fantasy Five, payout a free ticket for matching 2 numbers while some of the states with a smaller pick-5 matrix pay nothing for matching 2 numbers. I'm assuming because all the pick-3 prediction games payoff at $250 for straight and $40 for box, the pick-5 prediction games all have the same set payoffs too.

                        Avatar

                        United States
                        Member #157027
                        July 6, 2014
                        392 Posts
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                        Posted: August 26, 2014, 10:00 am - IP Logged

                        Some 5/39 games like the Florida Fantasy Five, payout a free ticket for matching 2 numbers while some of the states with a smaller pick-5 matrix pay nothing for matching 2 numbers. I'm assuming because all the pick-3 prediction games payoff at $250 for straight and $40 for box, the pick-5 prediction games all have the same set payoffs too.

                        Lol..just read all the threads..you guys funny...let me interrupt this debate to ask...what do you see for NC pick 4 today.  Whoever is correct wins the debate....lol

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
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                          March 24, 2001
                          19825 Posts
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                          Posted: August 26, 2014, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

                          Lol..just read all the threads..you guys funny...let me interrupt this debate to ask...what do you see for NC pick 4 today.  Whoever is correct wins the debate....lol


                                                            CALCULATE ODDS by RJOh
                            combination size     2-9     5
                            basic pool size up to 100    39
                            (B) bonus numbers            none
                            smallest match               2
                            tickets/chances per draw                    * enter P for prize amounts
                           possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
                           MATCH    ODDS              WINNING COMBOS   ODDS 575757 LINES        MATCHES   PRIZE
                           5/5      1:575757            1               1:1                        1.00  $ 420000
                           4/5      1:3387              170             170:1                    170.00  $ 300
                           3/5      1:103               5610            5610:1                  5610.00  $ 10
                           2/5      1:10                59840           59840:1                59840.00  $ 1
                            ________________________________________________________________________________________
                           overall odds 1 :8.7     65621.00 wins                            % OF JACKPOT: 100 %
                               65621 possible wins = 11.39%        expect 575757 lines to pay $586940

                          There is no debate as the above chart shows even when you play all possible combinations in the Ohio's Rolling Cash5, it's hard to expect to break even unless the jackpot is usually high and you are the only top prize winner.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19825 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 26, 2014, 4:39 pm - IP Logged


                                                              CALCULATE ODDS by RJOh
                              combination size     2-9     5
                              basic pool size up to 100    39
                              (B) bonus numbers            none
                              smallest match               2
                              tickets/chances per draw                    * enter P for prize amounts
                             possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757
                             MATCH    ODDS              WINNING COMBOS   ODDS 575757 LINES        MATCHES   PRIZE
                             5/5      1:575757            1               1:1                        1.00  $ 420000
                             4/5      1:3387              170             170:1                    170.00  $ 300
                             3/5      1:103               5610            5610:1                  5610.00  $ 10
                             2/5      1:10                59840           59840:1                59840.00  $ 1
                              ________________________________________________________________________________________
                             overall odds 1 :8.7     65621.00 wins                            % OF JACKPOT: 100 %
                                 65621 possible wins = 11.39%        expect 575757 lines to pay $586940

                            There is no debate as the above chart shows even when you play all possible combinations in the Ohio's Rolling Cash5, it's hard to expect to break even unless the jackpot is usually high and you are the only top prize winner.


                                                              CALCULATE ODDS by RJOh
                              combination size     2-9     5
                              basic pool size up to 100    75
                              (B) Bonus pool size          15
                              smallest match no (B) number 3
                              largest match with bonus     5
                              smallest match with bonus    0
                              tickets/chances per draw                    * enter P for prize amounts
                             possible combos of 5/75 + 1/15 numbers = 258890850
                             MATCH    ODDS              WINNING COMBOS   ODDS 258890850 LINES     MATCHES   PRIZE
                             5/5+B    1:258890850         1               1:1                        1.00  $ 999999999
                             5/5+0    1:18492204          14              14:1                      14.00  $ 1000000
                             4/5+B    1:739688            350             350:1                    350.00  $ 5000
                             4/5+0    1:52835             4900            4900:1                  4900.00  $ 500
                             3/5+B    1:10720             24150           24150:1                24150.00  $ 50
                             3/5+0    1:766               338100          338100:1              338100.00  $ 5
                             2/5+B    1:473               547400          547400:1              547400.00  $ 5
                             1/5+B    1:56                4584475         4584475:1            4584475.00  $ 2
                             0/5+B    1:21                12103014        12103014:1          12103014.00  $ 1
                              ________________________________________________________________________________________
                             overall odds 1 :14.7  17602404.00 wins                            % OF JACKPOT: 63 %
                              17602404 possible wins = 6.79%          expect 258890850 lines to pay $675106963

                            It's even worst with MegaMillions with almost a billion dollar$ jackpot.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              Avatar
                              Kentucky
                              United States
                              Member #32652
                              February 14, 2006
                              7308 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 26, 2014, 5:24 pm - IP Logged


                                                                CALCULATE ODDS by RJOh
                                combination size     2-9     5
                                basic pool size up to 100    75
                                (B) Bonus pool size          15
                                smallest match no (B) number 3
                                largest match with bonus     5
                                smallest match with bonus    0
                                tickets/chances per draw                    * enter P for prize amounts
                               possible combos of 5/75 + 1/15 numbers = 258890850
                               MATCH    ODDS              WINNING COMBOS   ODDS 258890850 LINES     MATCHES   PRIZE
                               5/5+B    1:258890850         1               1:1                        1.00  $ 999999999
                               5/5+0    1:18492204          14              14:1                      14.00  $ 1000000
                               4/5+B    1:739688            350             350:1                    350.00  $ 5000
                               4/5+0    1:52835             4900            4900:1                  4900.00  $ 500
                               3/5+B    1:10720             24150           24150:1                24150.00  $ 50
                               3/5+0    1:766               338100          338100:1              338100.00  $ 5
                               2/5+B    1:473               547400          547400:1              547400.00  $ 5
                               1/5+B    1:56                4584475         4584475:1            4584475.00  $ 2
                               0/5+B    1:21                12103014        12103014:1          12103014.00  $ 1
                                ________________________________________________________________________________________
                               overall odds 1 :14.7  17602404.00 wins                            % OF JACKPOT: 63 %
                                17602404 possible wins = 6.79%          expect 258890850 lines to pay $675106963

                              It's even worst with MegaMillions with almost a billion dollar$ jackpot.

                              That's interesting stuff, RJ and it really shows how much the odds are stacked against us. It doesn't look like someone will be knocking anyone off a perch predicting either of these games.