From Denver, Rocky Mountain Empire, United States Member #49750 February 13, 2007 439 Posts Offline

Posted: May 26, 2015, 10:17 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by lakerben on May 22, 2015

Thanks jade!

Thank you for sharing this JADELottery! I almost missed this gem. Question: can these excel files be applied to a 6/42 game also? I see the regular 5 balls are separated from the bonus balls etc...Thanks!

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: May 26, 2015, 11:33 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by adulane62 on May 26, 2015

Thank you for sharing this JADELottery! I almost missed this gem. Question: can these excel files be applied to a 6/42 game also? I see the regular 5 balls are separated from the bonus balls etc...Thanks!

The function can be applied to just about anything that has a known distribution.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

Lisbon Portugal Member #167185 June 29, 2015 22 Posts Offline

Posted: July 3, 2015, 9:37 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on May 22, 2015

We're going to start posting in a bit.

We ask that you hold on any questions till we are finished.

If we have more to to post, you'll see a 'Continues...' at the bottom of the post.

When we are done, we will post '...Done.' at the bottom of the page.

This takes several posts because of the large number of graphs and tables.

We tried to post in one gigantic post once and it caused problems loading.

In the end we will be posting an Excel Function that can be copied and pasted into Excel to be used in Excel or modified to suite any programming language you'd like to use.

Continues...

Hello, Jade

You have made a great statistical work. But the question is: what is this for? Can you build a predictive algorithm from this knowledge?

Here's an example: Take the Megaball, once again.

If the common player bet 1 number he will get 0.0666 hits per draw (1/15 = 0.0666).This is the REFERENCE or the so called Theoretical Average (TA). My question is: using this system (3 sums) how many hits can you achieve per draw?

If after 100 samples, for example, you get 0.0666 hits a draw, then there is no advantage to follow it;

If you get a higher value means you can beat the TA so, in this case you are predicting;

finally,If you get a lower value you are also predicting because, in this case, you may bet against the algorithm.

However, I fear it is not possible to predict using this knowledge because there is a synchronizing problem, I mean, although similarities in simulated and real patterns, you need to synchronize your model with the reality of the game. Several years ago when I started to develop predictive algorithms I lost a few hours or even days (I can`t remember exactly) with part of this same exercise you did and I quickly came to dead ends. However, you went a little bit further introducing simulated information.

But, I insist: is that enough to beat the odds, i.e. to get more than 0,0666 matches per drawing? If so, the system works.

But let`s see some obvious problems present in the 3 sums technique.

If the first 2 numbers of the sum are 1 + 1 + ... = 24 and knowing that the ideal sum of Megaball is 24, it means that the third number would be 22. Now, the ball 22 does not exist!!!

In the case of the first 2 numbers are 15+13+…= 24 the third number would be -4.However, Megaball does not contain negative numbers.Therefore, a brief review finds that there are dozens of black cases where the system does not work, because there are no enough numbers.

But the real problem is to construct predictive algorithms based on Euclidian maths when the reality is fractal. We can not fight fractal maths with Euclidian ou Gaussian maths. That is the reason why is so difficult to predict...

That is like fighting a war tank with a plastic revolver.

We are nearly finished testing and formatting with a =DisimulateNexus(Numbers, Distribution, N_{1}, N_{2}) function for the next update of the disimulate-mm-pb-0.xlsm file.

Most likely it will be another file in addition to the disimulate-mm-pb-0.xlsm file.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer