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# How to simulate a distribution and use the lottery's own randomness against itself.

264 replies. Last post 3 days ago by JADELottery.

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The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
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December 7, 2001
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 Posted: February 26, 2016, 12:42 am - IP Logged

The problem with this is that you are taking a set of data from the past and simulating the MB numbers for the same time period (i.e., the past). That is why your simulated MB frequencies are very close to the actual MB frequencies. It does not indicate what the next MB will be.

The probability of hitting the MB for the next drawing on one ticket is exactly 1/15 regardless of which number you choose. The 15 MB ping-pong balls that bounce around have no knowledge of the previous two draws and no interest in trying to add up to 24. One of the 15 is chosen at random, period, end of story.

Frequency of numbers chosen from the past are not perfectly even (for example, exactly 10 1's, 10 2's, ... and 10 15's from the last 150 drawings) because MB numbers are chosen at random with replacement for each drawing rather than from a set of numbers without replacement.

This is the superstition of "numbers chosen more frequently in the past are more likely to hit in the future" which is just as false as the superstition "numbers chosen less frequently in the past are due to hit in the future".

I have written lots of programs to simulate the lottery, not to try to make predictions (since it's impossible). I do this to get a probability distribution of winnings for buying n tickets. I never buy the tickets, I'm just curious to see how big n needs to be to reduce the probability of winning nothing below p, see what the median is, and the mode. The expected value is easy to calculate and does not require millions of simulations. The expected value (i.e., how much you win on average for one ticket) is very important. The lower the value, the more of your wager the state gets. Even if a game had an expected value of 100%, you can still lose (and there is no game like that with the exception of side bets at craps at some casinos in Las Vegas).

There is one way to guarantee yourself a win in MegaMillions, though: buy 15 tickets and select a different MB for each one (obviously not quickpick). Of course, if you only win \$1 and spent \$15, you're still in the hole but if you insist on being able to collect something rather than throwing away nothing but losing tickets, that strategy is absolutely 100% guaranteed to work.

We post numbers derived from the Disimulate and DisimulateNexus in Maddogs Mega Millions and Powerball challenges.

Stats are here: Maddog's 2016 MM & PB Challenge Stats

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

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February 11, 2016
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 Posted: February 26, 2016, 11:11 am - IP Logged

We post numbers derived from the Disimulate and DisimulateNexus in Maddogs Mega Millions and Powerball challenges.

Stats are here: Maddog's 2016 MM & PB Challenge Stats

Aren't those the challenges where you are allowed something like double the picks to try to hit?

Nothing wrong with the fun of it but I don't think its much of an indicator of successful predictions as each extra ball selected exponentially increses the amount of potential combinations you are covering.

New Mexico
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January 29, 2010
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 Posted: February 27, 2016, 10:38 am - IP Logged

We post numbers derived from the Disimulate and DisimulateNexus in Maddogs Mega Millions and Powerball challenges.

Stats are here: Maddog's 2016 MM & PB Challenge Stats

New Mexico
United States
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January 29, 2010
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 Posted: February 27, 2016, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

im playing around with the program using the last 15 NM mid draws.

Disimulate
 Enter Number of Samples Here
(1 to 1500)
ABCLast Two Draws
217← -1661Z2Red Box Threshold(0.00 to 1.00)
328←   0422Z1DisimulateNexus
439← +1DistributionNormalizedInverted
DrawsDistribution6DisimulateNexusx ≥ 0.50StandardStandardStandard
ABCNumberABCIndexABCNumberABCNumberABCNumberABC
83302417191306001000.200.500.2000.800.500.80
01112022172497100010.200.250.2010.800.750.80
04321718293466200020.200.250.2020.800.750.80
04932124164563320130.600.250.4030.400.750.60
74541220155446431040.800.500.2040.200.500.80
15952115156397510050.400.250.2050.600.750.80
6166171721602360.200.750.8060.800.250.20
1337252117700270.200.250.6070.800.750.40
6498142016800080.200.250.2080.800.750.80
3869201726902090.200.750.2090.800.250.80
637Min000
700Max323
280
518DistributionNormalizedInverted
060FoldedFoldedFolded

Are the ones in yellow suggested plays.  Back testing this does pretty good.  and, can i modify this to just look at 15 draws instead of the whole row of numbers?

New Mexico
United States
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January 29, 2010
11467 Posts
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 Posted: February 27, 2016, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

I put the last two draws and re-entered them.  New numbers.

 Enter Number of Samples Here
(1 to 1500)
Last Two Draws
← -1833Z2Red Box Threshold
←   0011Z1DisimulateNexus
← +1Distribution
12DisimulateNexusx ≥ 0.50Standard
IndexABCNumberABC
16790010
25531122
37112012
44343221
51584101
63095321
75776200
83257121
96118112
105329112
11992Min000
12888Max322

New Mexico
United States
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January 29, 2010
11467 Posts
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 Posted: February 27, 2016, 1:52 pm - IP Logged

I entered last nights p3 evening and yesterdays mid draw.

 Enter Number of Samples Here
Last Two Draws
← -1161Z2
←   0833Z1
← +1
18DisimulateNexusx ≥ 0.50
IndexABCNumber
15370
23701
31992
46383
58364
65415
71556
82687
94558
106099
11847Min
12561Max
13027
14776
15595
16234Number
176770
181441

Maryland
United States
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April 8, 2012
413 Posts
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 Posted: February 27, 2016, 10:43 pm - IP Logged

Hello, just went through this thread and my brain is fried..:-) and its ok. I love puzzles..and  I like all this stuff very much. I know JADELottery you mentioned that this Math thread for those who knows Math and all, but I really want to try it . Just want to have a chance too  to use this interesting program.. I am no Math savvy as I mentioned in my other post from your another thread, but I would like to organize this information somehow as it will help to understand better the concept.. I am grasping probably only small top of the concept as I am aware of the quantum mechanics a bit, just know about it, but dont know any details or math related to it..

All the infor kind of spread all over it would be nice to organize in 1,2,3 step, would be easier understand I guess and try to learn it..

So the questions are: (if you can, if not, I completely understand, it takes time to answer )

1) Do I have to figure out how to copy and paste first some algorithm you presented in your earlier post? (you said for those who know what they doing copy and paste what between the lines in excel )

I am the one who is definitely don't know what to do..:-)

OR

2) Can I just use this excel    ftp://www.jadexcode.com/excel/disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm

a)) if so do I use it like treesums excel (enter 2 draws, number of selections and look at the results chart) is it similar or it is completely different steps ?

b)) in Mega Millions drawings chart there is balls numbers a b c d e MB (as mega ball) and also MP (what is mp stand for?)

OR

3) Should  I use separate files as you posted from February 26 Blank data separate files?

4) Do I need to paste drawings history data in to this files or excel? If so how many should I use?

Thank you so much for any help!!

Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3857 Posts
Online
 Posted: February 28, 2016, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

1) Do I have to figure out how to copy and paste first some algorithm you presented in your earlier post? (you said for those who know what they doing copy and paste what between the lines in excel )
I am the one who is definitely don't know what to do..:-)

The copy and paste refers to the function itself and is intended for those with advanced working experience with Excel. This function is already in the files we posted and you don't need to know how to copy/paste to use it.

2) Can I just use this excel    ftp://www.jadexcode.com/excel/disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm

You can use this file and others we posted. They should be setup with all the functions in each file and sheet so you can play around with the functions.

a)) if so do I use it like treesums excel (enter 2 draws, number of selections and look at the results chart) is it similar or it is completely different steps ?

These files automatically use the last two draws when you enter the draw data under the left most columns, A-E, MB and MP.

b)) in Mega Millions drawings chart there is balls numbers a b c d e MB (as mega ball) and also MP (what is mp stand for?)

Columns A - E are the pick 5 part, the MB is the Mega Ball and MP is the Megaplier.

3) Should  I use separate files as you posted from February 26 Blank data separate files?

You can use any file any way you'd like. The blank data files were setup to have no draw data entered.

4) Do I need to paste drawings history data in to this files or excel? If so how many should I use?

The disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm has most of the correct draw data entered. You'll have to maintain the up keep of  newer draw data.

We would like to keep this from becoming an Excel 101 class since that is a different topic. We recommend doing a search for Excel books on self help. Here's some at Amazon you could try: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=excel&rh=n%3A283155%2Ck%3Aexcel

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

Maryland
United States
Member #126396
April 8, 2012
413 Posts
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 Posted: February 28, 2016, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

1) Do I have to figure out how to copy and paste first some algorithm you presented in your earlier post? (you said for those who know what they doing copy and paste what between the lines in excel )
I am the one who is definitely don't know what to do..:-)

The copy and paste refers to the function itself and is intended for those with advanced working experience with Excel. This function is already in the files we posted and you don't need to know how to copy/paste to use it.

2) Can I just use this excel    ftp://www.jadexcode.com/excel/disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm

You can use this file and others we posted. They should be setup with all the functions in each file and sheet so you can play around with the functions.

a)) if so do I use it like treesums excel (enter 2 draws, number of selections and look at the results chart) is it similar or it is completely different steps ?

These files automatically use the last two draws when you enter the draw data under the left most columns, A-E, MB and MP.

b)) in Mega Millions drawings chart there is balls numbers a b c d e MB (as mega ball) and also MP (what is mp stand for?)

Columns A - E are the pick 5 part, the MB is the Mega Ball and MP is the Megaplier.

3) Should  I use separate files as you posted from February 26 Blank data separate files?

You can use any file any way you'd like. The blank data files were setup to have no draw data entered.

4) Do I need to paste drawings history data in to this files or excel? If so how many should I use?

The disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm has most of the correct draw data entered. You'll have to maintain the up keep of  newer draw data.

We would like to keep this from becoming an Excel 101 class since that is a different topic. We recommend doing a search for Excel books on self help. Here's some at Amazon you could try: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=excel&rh=n%3A283155%2Ck%3Aexcel

Ok. Great, Thank you so much for your personal response to every question. I understand much better now..I know how to basically copy and paste in excel the drawings data so I am ok with that and of course will Google anything that I need to know with excel functions, The most important for me was understanding more what is in this great system you created..

Thank you again for your time! And will work on it today.:-) Love this brain work!!!

Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

Maryland
United States
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April 8, 2012
413 Posts
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 Posted: February 28, 2016, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

And finally, the best part of this function.

Simulating the lottery's own random selection.

It simple, get a distribution of numbers and plug it into the function.

We used the Mega Ball for this demonstration.

The current distribution of the Mega Ball as of 2015-05-22 @ 11:39 CT is:

 MB Real 1 12 2 11 3 17 4 8 5 8 6 13 7 17 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 10 13 8 14 7 15 15

We ran a sample set for the same number of draws going back to 2013-10-22 and simulated the following.

 MB Real Simulated 1 12 15 2 11 15 3 17 15 4 8 3 5 8 8 6 13 15 7 17 14 8 8 8 9 10 8 10 10 8 11 11 13 12 10 9 13 8 9 14 7 7 15 15 18

Pretty close, Aye!

...Done.

Hello, Jade, sorry I am back again. Looking at the excel for mega million the chart called "DisimulateNexusDistribution" would represent the chart you showing from post above for simulated numbers? Did I get this right?

Thank you so much!

Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3857 Posts
Online
 Posted: February 28, 2016, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

Hello, Jade, sorry I am back again. Looking at the excel for mega million the chart called "DisimulateNexusDistribution" would represent the chart you showing from post above for simulated numbers? Did I get this right?

Thank you so much!

that chart was a one time simulation example of the use of the Disimulate function on that given distribution of the Mega Ball number for the same number of draws.

the DisimulateNexus function is different in that it uses not only the distribution of the number, but also includes three sums to derive a number.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

Maryland
United States
Member #126396
April 8, 2012
413 Posts
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 Posted: February 29, 2016, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

that chart was a one time simulation example of the use of the Disimulate function on that given distribution of the Mega Ball number for the same number of draws.

the DisimulateNexus function is different in that it uses not only the distribution of the number, but also includes three sums to derive a number.

Ok. I understand , I think I formulate my question wrong, sorry, I understand it was one time example of the simulation using disimulate function and I understand all purpose of the disimulate program build on the function of simulating random lottery predictions and tree sums? correct me if I am wrong..

And so is there a separate chart/column in the program to look at  that shows the numbers that were randomly simulated after the program made calculations or is it combine together with tree sums as you said and called disimulatenexus distribution and that chart/column the main focus on picking the numbers?

Also the chart where we suppose to select numbers, the one that varies numbers by 1,0,+1.. I understand represent distribution of the numbers that shown in the column below.. I really stuck with this one, honestly, sorry, if you can help to explain thank you upfront, if not I understand, at list if you can guide me where I can read again on the thread about this, I red it again and again but couldn't connect your examples to this chart where I suppose to select the numbers and how they can effect disimulateNexus distribution chart ..

Thank you so much again for sharing this program and all your help!!:-)

Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

Maryland
United States
Member #126396
April 8, 2012
413 Posts
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 Posted: February 29, 2016, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

Ok. I understand , I think I formulate my question wrong, sorry, I understand it was one time example of the simulation using disimulate function and I understand all purpose of the disimulate program build on the function of simulating random lottery predictions and tree sums? correct me if I am wrong..

And so is there a separate chart/column in the program to look at  that shows the numbers that were randomly simulated after the program made calculations or is it combine together with tree sums as you said and called disimulatenexus distribution and that chart/column the main focus on picking the numbers?

Also the chart where we suppose to select numbers, the one that varies numbers by 1,0,+1.. I understand represent distribution of the numbers that shown in the column below.. I really stuck with this one, honestly, sorry, if you can help to explain thank you upfront, if not I understand, at list if you can guide me where I can read again on the thread about this, I red it again and again but couldn't connect your examples to this chart where I suppose to select the numbers and how they can effect disimulateNexus distribution chart ..

Thank you so much again for sharing this program and all your help!!:-)

Hello,  Please disregard  my earlier post the only one thing that I have stuck with is this column:

Disimulate(Number, Distribution)

A             B              C              --             --             --             --

2              5              4                                                            ← -1

3              6              5       err          err          err          err      ←   0

4              7              6                                                            ← +1

Distribution

Number     A             B              C              --             --             --             --

0              24           19           16

1              18           20           16

2              16           18           30

3              20           22           14

4              13           17           17

5              22           15           16

6              17           17           20

7              23           23           17

8              15           20           16

9              22           19           28

1)Based on what we suppose to select the numbers above  from disimulate (numbers,distribution) column?. Also as you see I am getting err for some reason across 0 for games like pick 3,4,5 . If that is a problem how do I fix it?

2) The numbers in the distribution column , are these the frequencies numbers too? From random numbers simulation or something else?

Thank you! Any help I am greatly appreciate.. I am one step close to get it completely and start using it and hopefuly no more questions ask!! :-)))))))

Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3857 Posts
Online
 Posted: February 29, 2016, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

Hello,  Please disregard  my earlier post the only one thing that I have stuck with is this column:

Disimulate(Number, Distribution)

A             B              C              --             --             --             --

2              5              4                                                            ← -1

3              6              5       err          err          err          err      ←   0

4              7              6                                                            ← +1

Distribution

Number     A             B              C              --             --             --             --

0              24           19           16

1              18           20           16

2              16           18           30

3              20           22           14

4              13           17           17

5              22           15           16

6              17           17           20

7              23           23           17

8              15           20           16

9              22           19           28

1)Based on what we suppose to select the numbers above  from disimulate (numbers,distribution) column?. Also as you see I am getting err for some reason across 0 for games like pick 3,4,5 . If that is a problem how do I fix it?

2) The numbers in the distribution column , are these the frequencies numbers too? From random numbers simulation or something else?

Thank you! Any help I am greatly appreciate.. I am one step close to get it completely and start using it and hopefuly no more questions ask!! :-)))))))

ignore the 'err'.

it is an error message, because there is no data in those columns.

the Distribution is the frequency of the draw data.

the Disimulate(Numbers, Distribution) function uses the distribution of the numbers to simulate a draw.

the numbers under the Disimulate(Number, Distribution) function are setup to be the draw simulation in the middle row indicated by the ←0.

the numbers above and below are the one up and one down from that simulation.

those could be used to make playable combinations.

from the one time example you show here, there are 27 possible combinations.

although it's not showing here, there is a select button to select a new set of numbers.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

New Mexico
United States
Member #86099
January 29, 2010
11467 Posts
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 Posted: March 1, 2016, 11:28 am - IP Logged

I have a lab just like yours.  His name is Tejas.

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