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How to simulate a distribution and use the lottery's own randomness against itself.

211 replies. Last post 14 days ago by tvpventures.

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JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
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December 7, 2001
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Posted: February 26, 2016, 12:42 am - IP Logged

The problem with this is that you are taking a set of data from the past and simulating the MB numbers for the same time period (i.e., the past). That is why your simulated MB frequencies are very close to the actual MB frequencies. It does not indicate what the next MB will be.

The probability of hitting the MB for the next drawing on one ticket is exactly 1/15 regardless of which number you choose. The 15 MB ping-pong balls that bounce around have no knowledge of the previous two draws and no interest in trying to add up to 24. One of the 15 is chosen at random, period, end of story.

Frequency of numbers chosen from the past are not perfectly even (for example, exactly 10 1's, 10 2's, ... and 10 15's from the last 150 drawings) because MB numbers are chosen at random with replacement for each drawing rather than from a set of numbers without replacement.

This is the superstition of "numbers chosen more frequently in the past are more likely to hit in the future" which is just as false as the superstition "numbers chosen less frequently in the past are due to hit in the future".

I have written lots of programs to simulate the lottery, not to try to make predictions (since it's impossible). I do this to get a probability distribution of winnings for buying n tickets. I never buy the tickets, I'm just curious to see how big n needs to be to reduce the probability of winning nothing below p, see what the median is, and the mode. The expected value is easy to calculate and does not require millions of simulations. The expected value (i.e., how much you win on average for one ticket) is very important. The lower the value, the more of your wager the state gets. Even if a game had an expected value of 100%, you can still lose (and there is no game like that with the exception of side bets at craps at some casinos in Las Vegas).

There is one way to guarantee yourself a win in MegaMillions, though: buy 15 tickets and select a different MB for each one (obviously not quickpick). Of course, if you only win $1 and spent $15, you're still in the hole but if you insist on being able to collect something rather than throwing away nothing but losing tickets, that strategy is absolutely 100% guaranteed to work.

We post numbers derived from the Disimulate and DisimulateNexus in Maddogs Mega Millions and Powerball challenges.

Stats are here: Maddog's 2016 MM & PB Challenge Stats

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

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    Madison, WI
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    Posted: February 26, 2016, 11:11 am - IP Logged

    We post numbers derived from the Disimulate and DisimulateNexus in Maddogs Mega Millions and Powerball challenges.

    Stats are here: Maddog's 2016 MM & PB Challenge Stats

    Aren't those the challenges where you are allowed something like double the picks to try to hit?

    Nothing wrong with the fun of it but I don't think its much of an indicator of successful predictions as each extra ball selected exponentially increses the amount of potential combinations you are covering.

      lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
      New Mexico
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      Posted: February 27, 2016, 10:38 am - IP Logged

      We post numbers derived from the Disimulate and DisimulateNexus in Maddogs Mega Millions and Powerball challenges.

      Stats are here: Maddog's 2016 MM & PB Challenge Stats

      Thumbs Up

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        lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
        New Mexico
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        Posted: February 27, 2016, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

        im playing around with the program using the last 15 NM mid draws. 

        Disimulate
        Enter Number of Samples Here
        (1 to 1500)
        ABCLast Two Draws
        217← -1661Z2
        Red Box Threshold(0.00 to 1.00)
        328←   0422Z1DisimulateNexus
        439← +1DistributionNormalizedInverted
        DrawsDistribution6DisimulateNexusx ≥ 0.50StandardStandardStandard
        ABCNumberABCIndexABCNumberABCNumberABCNumberABC
        83302417191306001000.200.500.2000.800.500.80
        01112022172497100010.200.250.2010.800.750.80
        04321718293466200020.200.250.2020.800.750.80
        04932124164563320130.600.250.4030.400.750.60
        74541220155446431040.800.500.2040.200.500.80
        15952115156397510050.400.250.2050.600.750.80
        6166171721602360.200.750.8060.800.250.20
        1337252117700270.200.250.6070.800.750.40
        6498142016800080.200.250.2080.800.750.80
        3869201726902090.200.750.2090.800.250.80
        637Min000
        700Max323
        280
        518DistributionNormalizedInverted
        060FoldedFoldedFolded

         

        Are the ones in yellow suggested plays.  Back testing this does pretty good.  and, can i modify this to just look at 15 draws instead of the whole row of numbers?

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          lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
          New Mexico
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          Posted: February 27, 2016, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

          I put the last two draws and re-entered them.  New numbers.

           

          Enter Number of Samples Here
          (1 to 1500)
          Last Two Draws
          ← -1833Z2
          Red Box Threshold
          ←   0011Z1DisimulateNexus
          ← +1Distribution
          12DisimulateNexusx ≥ 0.50Standard
          IndexABCNumberABC
          16790010
          25531122
          37112012
          44343221
          51584101
          63095321
          75776200
          83257121
          96118112
          105329112
          11992Min000
          12888Max322

          US Flag

            lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
            New Mexico
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            Posted: February 27, 2016, 1:52 pm - IP Logged

            I entered last nights p3 evening and yesterdays mid draw.

             

            Enter Number of Samples Here
            Last Two Draws
            ← -1161Z2
            ←   0833Z1
            ← +1
            18DisimulateNexusx ≥ 0.50
            IndexABCNumber
            15370
            23701
            31992
            46383
            58364
            65415
            71556
            82687
            94558
            106099
            11847Min
            12561Max
            13027
            14776
            15595
            16234Number
            176770
            181441

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              Maryland
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              Posted: February 27, 2016, 10:43 pm - IP Logged

              Hello, just went through this thread and my brain is fried..:-) and its ok. I love puzzles..and  I like all this stuff very much. I know JADELottery you mentioned that this Math thread for those who knows Math and all, but I really want to try it . Just want to have a chance too  to use this interesting program.. I am no Math savvy as I mentioned in my other post from your another thread, but I would like to organize this information somehow as it will help to understand better the concept.. I am grasping probably only small top of the concept as I am aware of the quantum mechanics a bit, just know about it, but dont know any details or math related to it..

              All the infor kind of spread all over it would be nice to organize in 1,2,3 step, would be easier understand I guess and try to learn it..

              So the questions are: (if you can, if not, I completely understand, it takes time to answer )

              1) Do I have to figure out how to copy and paste first some algorithm you presented in your earlier post? (you said for those who know what they doing copy and paste what between the lines in excel )

              I am the one who is definitely don't know what to do..:-)

              OR

              2) Can I just use this excel    ftp://www.jadexcode.com/excel/disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm 

              a)) if so do I use it like treesums excel (enter 2 draws, number of selections and look at the results chart) is it similar or it is completely different steps ?

              b)) in Mega Millions drawings chart there is balls numbers a b c d e MB (as mega ball) and also MP (what is mp stand for?)

              OR

              3) Should  I use separate files as you posted from February 26 Blank data separate files?

              4) Do I need to paste drawings history data in to this files or excel? If so how many should I use? 

               

              Thank you so much for any help!!

              Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

                JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
                United States
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                Posted: February 28, 2016, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

                1) Do I have to figure out how to copy and paste first some algorithm you presented in your earlier post? (you said for those who know what they doing copy and paste what between the lines in excel )
                I am the one who is definitely don't know what to do..:-)

                The copy and paste refers to the function itself and is intended for those with advanced working experience with Excel. This function is already in the files we posted and you don't need to know how to copy/paste to use it.

                2) Can I just use this excel    ftp://www.jadexcode.com/excel/disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm

                You can use this file and others we posted. They should be setup with all the functions in each file and sheet so you can play around with the functions.

                a)) if so do I use it like treesums excel (enter 2 draws, number of selections and look at the results chart) is it similar or it is completely different steps ?

                These files automatically use the last two draws when you enter the draw data under the left most columns, A-E, MB and MP.

                b)) in Mega Millions drawings chart there is balls numbers a b c d e MB (as mega ball) and also MP (what is mp stand for?)

                Columns A - E are the pick 5 part, the MB is the Mega Ball and MP is the Megaplier.

                3) Should  I use separate files as you posted from February 26 Blank data separate files?

                You can use any file any way you'd like. The blank data files were setup to have no draw data entered.

                4) Do I need to paste drawings history data in to this files or excel? If so how many should I use?

                The disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm has most of the correct draw data entered. You'll have to maintain the up keep of  newer draw data.


                We would like to keep this from becoming an Excel 101 class since that is a different topic. We recommend doing a search for Excel books on self help. Here's some at Amazon you could try: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=excel&rh=n%3A283155%2Ck%3Aexcel

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer

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                  Posted: February 28, 2016, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

                  1) Do I have to figure out how to copy and paste first some algorithm you presented in your earlier post? (you said for those who know what they doing copy and paste what between the lines in excel )
                  I am the one who is definitely don't know what to do..:-)

                  The copy and paste refers to the function itself and is intended for those with advanced working experience with Excel. This function is already in the files we posted and you don't need to know how to copy/paste to use it.

                  2) Can I just use this excel    ftp://www.jadexcode.com/excel/disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm

                  You can use this file and others we posted. They should be setup with all the functions in each file and sheet so you can play around with the functions.

                  a)) if so do I use it like treesums excel (enter 2 draws, number of selections and look at the results chart) is it similar or it is completely different steps ?

                  These files automatically use the last two draws when you enter the draw data under the left most columns, A-E, MB and MP.

                  b)) in Mega Millions drawings chart there is balls numbers a b c d e MB (as mega ball) and also MP (what is mp stand for?)

                  Columns A - E are the pick 5 part, the MB is the Mega Ball and MP is the Megaplier.

                  3) Should  I use separate files as you posted from February 26 Blank data separate files?

                  You can use any file any way you'd like. The blank data files were setup to have no draw data entered.

                  4) Do I need to paste drawings history data in to this files or excel? If so how many should I use?

                  The disimulate-mm-pb-hb-dp-0.xlsm has most of the correct draw data entered. You'll have to maintain the up keep of  newer draw data.


                  We would like to keep this from becoming an Excel 101 class since that is a different topic. We recommend doing a search for Excel books on self help. Here's some at Amazon you could try: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=excel&rh=n%3A283155%2Ck%3Aexcel

                  Ok. Great, Thank you so much for your personal response to every question. I understand much better now..I know how to basically copy and paste in excel the drawings data so I am ok with that and of course will Google anything that I need to know with excel functions, The most important for me was understanding more what is in this great system you created..

                  Thank you again for your time! And will work on it today.:-) Love this brain work!!!

                  Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

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                    Maryland
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                    Posted: February 28, 2016, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

                    And finally, the best part of this function.

                    Simulating the lottery's own random selection.

                    It simple, get a distribution of numbers and plug it into the function.

                    We used the Mega Ball for this demonstration.

                    The current distribution of the Mega Ball as of 2015-05-22 @ 11:39 CT is:

                    MBReal
                    112
                    211
                    317
                    48
                    58
                    613
                    717
                    88
                    910
                    1010
                    1111
                    1210
                    138
                    147
                    1515

                     

                    We ran a sample set for the same number of draws going back to 2013-10-22 and simulated the following.

                    MBRealSimulated
                    11215
                    21115
                    31715
                    483
                    588
                    61315
                    71714
                    888
                    9108
                    10108
                    111113
                    12109
                    1389
                    1477
                    151518

                     

                    Pretty close, Aye!

                    Also, the best part about this function is no matter what the lottery does, the function adapts instantly.

                    ...Done.

                    Hello, Jade, sorry I am back again. Looking at the excel for mega million the chart called "DisimulateNexusDistribution" would represent the chart you showing from post above for simulated numbers? Did I get this right?

                    Thank you so much!

                    Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

                      JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
                      Member #21
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                      Posted: February 28, 2016, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                      Hello, Jade, sorry I am back again. Looking at the excel for mega million the chart called "DisimulateNexusDistribution" would represent the chart you showing from post above for simulated numbers? Did I get this right?

                      Thank you so much!

                      that chart was a one time simulation example of the use of the Disimulate function on that given distribution of the Mega Ball number for the same number of draws.

                      the DisimulateNexus function is different in that it uses not only the distribution of the number, but also includes three sums to derive a number.

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

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                        Maryland
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                        Posted: February 29, 2016, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

                        that chart was a one time simulation example of the use of the Disimulate function on that given distribution of the Mega Ball number for the same number of draws.

                        the DisimulateNexus function is different in that it uses not only the distribution of the number, but also includes three sums to derive a number.

                        Ok. I understand , I think I formulate my question wrong, sorry, I understand it was one time example of the simulation using disimulate function and I understand all purpose of the disimulate program build on the function of simulating random lottery predictions and tree sums? correct me if I am wrong..

                        And so is there a separate chart/column in the program to look at  that shows the numbers that were randomly simulated after the program made calculations or is it combine together with tree sums as you said and called disimulatenexus distribution and that chart/column the main focus on picking the numbers?

                        Also the chart where we suppose to select numbers, the one that varies numbers by 1,0,+1.. I understand represent distribution of the numbers that shown in the column below.. I really stuck with this one, honestly, sorry, if you can help to explain thank you upfront, if not I understand, at list if you can guide me where I can read again on the thread about this, I red it again and again but couldn't connect your examples to this chart where I suppose to select the numbers and how they can effect disimulateNexus distribution chart ..

                        Thank you so much again for sharing this program and all your help!!:-)

                        Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

                          Avatar
                          Maryland
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                          April 8, 2012
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                          Posted: February 29, 2016, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

                          Ok. I understand , I think I formulate my question wrong, sorry, I understand it was one time example of the simulation using disimulate function and I understand all purpose of the disimulate program build on the function of simulating random lottery predictions and tree sums? correct me if I am wrong..

                          And so is there a separate chart/column in the program to look at  that shows the numbers that were randomly simulated after the program made calculations or is it combine together with tree sums as you said and called disimulatenexus distribution and that chart/column the main focus on picking the numbers?

                          Also the chart where we suppose to select numbers, the one that varies numbers by 1,0,+1.. I understand represent distribution of the numbers that shown in the column below.. I really stuck with this one, honestly, sorry, if you can help to explain thank you upfront, if not I understand, at list if you can guide me where I can read again on the thread about this, I red it again and again but couldn't connect your examples to this chart where I suppose to select the numbers and how they can effect disimulateNexus distribution chart ..

                          Thank you so much again for sharing this program and all your help!!:-)

                          Hello,  Please disregard  my earlier post the only one thing that I have stuck with is this column:

                                          Disimulate(Number, Distribution)                                                                                                   

                                          A             B              C              --             --             --             --           

                                          2              5              4                                                            ← -1

                                          3              6              5       err          err          err          err      ←   0

                                          4              7              6                                                            ← +1

                                          Distribution                                                                                                         

                          Number     A             B              C              --             --             --             --           

                          0              24           19           16                                                                         

                          1              18           20           16                                                                         

                          2              16           18           30                                                                         

                          3              20           22           14                                                                         

                          4              13           17           17                                                                         

                          5              22           15           16                                                                         

                          6              17           17           20                                                                         

                          7              23           23           17                                                                         

                          8              15           20           16                                                                         

                          9              22           19           28   

                           

                          1)Based on what we suppose to select the numbers above  from disimulate (numbers,distribution) column?. Also as you see I am getting err for some reason across 0 for games like pick 3,4,5 . If that is a problem how do I fix it?

                          2) The numbers in the distribution column , are these the frequencies numbers too? From random numbers simulation or something else?

                          Thank you! Any help I am greatly appreciate.. I am one step close to get it completely and start using it and hopefuly no more questions ask!! :-)))))))

                          Don't ever grow up, it's a trap!

                            JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
                            The Quantum Master
                            West Concord, MN
                            United States
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                            Posted: February 29, 2016, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

                            Hello,  Please disregard  my earlier post the only one thing that I have stuck with is this column:

                                            Disimulate(Number, Distribution)                                                                                                   

                                            A             B              C              --             --             --             --           

                                            2              5              4                                                            ← -1

                                            3              6              5       err          err          err          err      ←   0

                                            4              7              6                                                            ← +1

                                            Distribution                                                                                                         

                            Number     A             B              C              --             --             --             --           

                            0              24           19           16                                                                         

                            1              18           20           16                                                                         

                            2              16           18           30                                                                         

                            3              20           22           14                                                                         

                            4              13           17           17                                                                         

                            5              22           15           16                                                                         

                            6              17           17           20                                                                         

                            7              23           23           17                                                                         

                            8              15           20           16                                                                         

                            9              22           19           28   

                             

                            1)Based on what we suppose to select the numbers above  from disimulate (numbers,distribution) column?. Also as you see I am getting err for some reason across 0 for games like pick 3,4,5 . If that is a problem how do I fix it?

                            2) The numbers in the distribution column , are these the frequencies numbers too? From random numbers simulation or something else?

                            Thank you! Any help I am greatly appreciate.. I am one step close to get it completely and start using it and hopefuly no more questions ask!! :-)))))))

                            ignore the 'err'.

                            it is an error message, because there is no data in those columns.

                            the Distribution is the frequency of the draw data.

                            the Disimulate(Numbers, Distribution) function uses the distribution of the numbers to simulate a draw.

                            the numbers under the Disimulate(Number, Distribution) function are setup to be the draw simulation in the middle row indicated by the ←0.

                            the numbers above and below are the one up and one down from that simulation.

                            those could be used to make playable combinations.

                            from the one time example you show here, there are 27 possible combinations.

                            although it's not showing here, there is a select button to select a new set of numbers.

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                            Use at your own risk.

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                            Jehocifer

                              lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
                              New Mexico
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                              January 29, 2010
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                              Posted: March 1, 2016, 11:28 am - IP Logged

                              I have a lab just like yours.  His name is Tejas.

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