I was correct in thinking that there have been multiple algorithms used in an attempt to predict the MN Daily 3 numbers. I always appreciate the opportunity to test a clearly defined prediction so I went back and looked at the JADE One Hit Wonder predictions from Jan 2010 through April 2010.
The JADE One Hit Wonder uses an unspecified algorithm to produce 3 digits in a specific sequence and the following explanation of how to play those 3 digits is provided:
Alright, now that the One Hit Wonder Chart is here, you might be wondering yourself. What is it and what do I do with it?
'What is it?' is easy. It's a single combo for that day's draw and is derived with the same method used in the JADE Pick 3 Pick 4 Selector program by using the past few draws to come up with the combo. This one combo is special though; each digit position is important in determining what the next real draw is and isn't. This leads to the 'What do I do with it?" question.
Each digit position is designed to be useful in determining the next draw outcome. There are a set of possible matches that can help determine what kind of play you'd like to work with. One is the obvious 'exact' or 'straight' match; this is just the one combo all by itself. The others are when some or none of the positions are matching.
We'll use the Pick 3 as an example. Let's say the One Hit Combo for that day's draw is 1 2 3. Now, there are some things to look for, one is position and the other is the missing position. In the case of 1 2 3, in exact position, either all three the numbers are drawn, any two of the numbers are drawn, any one of the numbers are drawn, or none of the numbers are drawn for that day's draw. This would look something like the following:
1 2 3
X 2 3 - 1 X 3 - 1 2 X
X X 3 - X 2 X - 1 X X
X X X
X is a don't care number, but it's important to understand that X cannot have any of the One Hit Wonder numbers in those positions. If we look at the first position with the 1, either 1 hits or it doesn't. If it doesn't then it must be a number other than 1; they are 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 for the first position only. You can use the One Hit Wonder Chart to either include a particular position or exclude it.
In each of the above cases, there are a set number of combos that can be found. Below are the don't care possible combos for each don't care case.
1 2 3 - 1 combo
X 2 3 - 9 combos, 1 X 3 - 9 combos, 1 2 X - 9 combos
X X 3 - 81 combos, X 2 X - 81 combos, 1 X X - 81 combos
X X X - 729 combos
What this system does is generate a total of 271 unique combinations that are bet as straight sequence. You are a winner if a digit of the 3 predicted shows up in the exact same position in the drawn number. You can win up to 3 times (one for each digit position) so your maximum win is $1500 if you pay $1/ticket.
Your possible outcomes are:
Lose $271
Win $229
Win $729
Win $1229
Since the MN Lottery pays out at 1/2 the expected odds, each $1 you spend on MN Daily 3 tickets has an expected value of 50 cents (ie you'll lose 1/2 your money on the average bet).
Between 1/1/2010 and 4/30/2010 there were 111 JADE One Hit Wonder predictions for the 111 MN Daily 3 drawings.
Betting the JADE One Hit Wonder number for all 271 combinations (as above) during that period would have resulted in a $16,581 loss. The expected loss would have been $15040.50
Expected loss is 0.5 * (271 * 111)
So the JADE One Hit Wonder produced results that are consistent with what a random selection of predicted numbers would have produced.
Out of the 271*111 = 30,081 tickets purchased there were 27 winners.
During the 111 daily draws, there were 25 days were a single ticket won and 2 days when 2 tickets won.
In order to profit from the MN Daily 3 you have to win at a rate greater than twice the rate that random chance would predict. The JADE One was unable to exceed even what random chance would predict, much less double that.