West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 2:47 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by dddwww on January 19, 2016

A perfect example of completely misunderstanding how probability works and obviously those different length "missed consecutive occurances" couldn't possibly have have occurred "simultaneously" as you state.

You weren't looking for a specific set of non-overlapping missed consecutive occurences of 6,7,8

You might as well point out that the probability of two consecutive Powerball drawings having this sequence of numbers:

4 8 19 27 34 10

3515261646

is 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,244

It's meaningless.

You claimed that the gap of 27 in 6,7, and 8 not appearing was evidence of a "flaw".

The odds of ANY particular 48, 52, and 43 sequence of missing/not missing combinations for 6,7,8 will have the SAME EXACT probability of occurrence.

"You got interested when the gap was 27 drawings long."

No, we were working well before that; we posted this topic and graph on 2015-10-25 and by that time there were at least 37 draws missed for the consecutive 6, 7 and 8 clockwise moves.

What is interesting, after our initial post on 2015-10-25 , 5 short draws later on 2015-10-30 the 6, 7, 8 clockwise moves return.

"You claimed that the gap of 27 in 6,7, and 8 not appearing was evidence of a "flaw". "

No, we suspected, "So, given this is a computer generated number, is this flaw by accident or by design?", see questioning.

Also, there are only 8 possible three consecutive clockwise moves: 1,2,3; 2,3,4; 3,4,5; 4,5,6; 5,6,7; 6,7,8; 7,8,9, 8,9,10.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 2:50 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by dddwww on January 19, 2016

I was correct in thinking that there have been multiple algorithms used in an attempt to predict the MN Daily 3 numbers. I always appreciate the opportunity to test a clearly defined prediction so I went back and looked at the JADE One Hit Wonder predictions from Jan 2010 through April 2010.

The JADE One Hit Wonder uses an unspecified algorithm to produce 3 digits in a specific sequence and the following explanation of how to play those 3 digits is provided:

Alright, now that the One Hit Wonder Chart is here, you might be wondering yourself. What is it and what do I do with it?

'What is it?' is easy. It's a single combo for that day's draw and is derived with the same method used in the JADE Pick 3 Pick 4 Selector program by using the past few draws to come up with the combo. This one combo is special though; each digit position is important in determining what the next real draw is and isn't. This leads to the 'What do I do with it?" question.

Each digit position is designed to be useful in determining the next draw outcome. There are a set of possible matches that can help determine what kind of play you'd like to work with. One is the obvious 'exact' or 'straight' match; this is just the one combo all by itself. The others are when some or none of the positions are matching.

We'll use the Pick 3 as an example. Let's say the One Hit Combo for that day's draw is 1 2 3. Now, there are some things to look for, one is position and the other is the missing position. In the case of 1 2 3, in exact position, either all three the numbers are drawn, any two of the numbers are drawn, any one of the numbers are drawn, or none of the numbers are drawn for that day's draw. This would look something like the following:

1 2 3

X 2 3 - 1 X 3 - 1 2 X

X X 3 - X 2 X - 1 X X

X X X

X is a don't care number, but it's important to understand that X cannot have any of the One Hit Wonder numbers in those positions. If we look at the first position with the 1, either 1 hits or it doesn't. If it doesn't then it must be a number other than 1; they are 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 for the first position only. You can use the One Hit Wonder Chart to either include a particular position or exclude it.

In each of the above cases, there are a set number of combos that can be found. Below are the don't care possible combos for each don't care case.

1 2 3 - 1 combo

X 2 3 - 9 combos, 1 X 3 - 9 combos, 1 2 X - 9 combos

X X 3 - 81 combos, X 2 X - 81 combos, 1 X X - 81 combos

X X X - 729 combos

What this system does is generate a total of 271 unique combinations that are bet as straight sequence. You are a winner if a digit of the 3 predicted shows up in the exact same position in the drawn number. You can win up to 3 times (one for each digit position) so your maximum win is $1500 if you pay $1/ticket.

Your possible outcomes are:

Lose $271

Win $229

Win $729

Win $1229

Since the MN Lottery pays out at 1/2 the expected odds, each $1 you spend on MN Daily 3 tickets has an expected value of 50 cents (ie you'll lose 1/2 your money on the average bet).

Between 1/1/2010 and 4/30/2010 there were 111 JADE One Hit Wonder predictions for the 111 MN Daily 3 drawings.

Betting the JADE One Hit Wonder number for all 271 combinations (as above) during that period would have resulted in a $16,581 loss. The expected loss would have been $15040.50

Expected loss is 0.5 * (271 * 111)

So the JADE One Hit Wonder produced results that are consistent with what a random selection of predicted numbers would have produced.

Out of the 271*111 = 30,081 tickets purchased there were 27 winners.

During the 111 daily draws, there were 25 days were a single ticket won and 2 days when 2 tickets won.

In order to profit from the MN Daily 3 you have to win at a rate greater than twice the rate that random chance would predict. The JADE One was unable to exceed even what random chance would predict, much less double that.

You're now our favorite Troll Doll.

Oooo, com' her' and give us a big hug.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

New Mexico United States Member #86099 January 29, 2010 11119 Posts Online

Posted: January 19, 2016, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by dddwww on January 19, 2016

I was correct in thinking that there have been multiple algorithms used in an attempt to predict the MN Daily 3 numbers. I always appreciate the opportunity to test a clearly defined prediction so I went back and looked at the JADE One Hit Wonder predictions from Jan 2010 through April 2010.

The JADE One Hit Wonder uses an unspecified algorithm to produce 3 digits in a specific sequence and the following explanation of how to play those 3 digits is provided:

Alright, now that the One Hit Wonder Chart is here, you might be wondering yourself. What is it and what do I do with it?

'What is it?' is easy. It's a single combo for that day's draw and is derived with the same method used in the JADE Pick 3 Pick 4 Selector program by using the past few draws to come up with the combo. This one combo is special though; each digit position is important in determining what the next real draw is and isn't. This leads to the 'What do I do with it?" question.

Each digit position is designed to be useful in determining the next draw outcome. There are a set of possible matches that can help determine what kind of play you'd like to work with. One is the obvious 'exact' or 'straight' match; this is just the one combo all by itself. The others are when some or none of the positions are matching.

We'll use the Pick 3 as an example. Let's say the One Hit Combo for that day's draw is 1 2 3. Now, there are some things to look for, one is position and the other is the missing position. In the case of 1 2 3, in exact position, either all three the numbers are drawn, any two of the numbers are drawn, any one of the numbers are drawn, or none of the numbers are drawn for that day's draw. This would look something like the following:

1 2 3

X 2 3 - 1 X 3 - 1 2 X

X X 3 - X 2 X - 1 X X

X X X

X is a don't care number, but it's important to understand that X cannot have any of the One Hit Wonder numbers in those positions. If we look at the first position with the 1, either 1 hits or it doesn't. If it doesn't then it must be a number other than 1; they are 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 for the first position only. You can use the One Hit Wonder Chart to either include a particular position or exclude it.

In each of the above cases, there are a set number of combos that can be found. Below are the don't care possible combos for each don't care case.

1 2 3 - 1 combo

X 2 3 - 9 combos, 1 X 3 - 9 combos, 1 2 X - 9 combos

X X 3 - 81 combos, X 2 X - 81 combos, 1 X X - 81 combos

X X X - 729 combos

What this system does is generate a total of 271 unique combinations that are bet as straight sequence. You are a winner if a digit of the 3 predicted shows up in the exact same position in the drawn number. You can win up to 3 times (one for each digit position) so your maximum win is $1500 if you pay $1/ticket.

Your possible outcomes are:

Lose $271

Win $229

Win $729

Win $1229

Since the MN Lottery pays out at 1/2 the expected odds, each $1 you spend on MN Daily 3 tickets has an expected value of 50 cents (ie you'll lose 1/2 your money on the average bet).

Between 1/1/2010 and 4/30/2010 there were 111 JADE One Hit Wonder predictions for the 111 MN Daily 3 drawings.

Betting the JADE One Hit Wonder number for all 271 combinations (as above) during that period would have resulted in a $16,581 loss. The expected loss would have been $15040.50

Expected loss is 0.5 * (271 * 111)

So the JADE One Hit Wonder produced results that are consistent with what a random selection of predicted numbers would have produced.

Out of the 271*111 = 30,081 tickets purchased there were 27 winners.

During the 111 daily draws, there were 25 days were a single ticket won and 2 days when 2 tickets won.

In order to profit from the MN Daily 3 you have to win at a rate greater than twice the rate that random chance would predict. The JADE One was unable to exceed even what random chance would predict, much less double that.

Let me clear my throat. Patooee!

If, I say if we go with so called permutations or combinations of say 123.

123

213

312

132

231

We play str/box

If the combo hits we have wins of

$290

$40

$40

$40

$40

Which is $5 spent for $450 a $445 profit. And if we get sure of ourself we could have the clerk run he same slip 4 times. Close to 2 grand for a $20 bet.

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 4:03 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on January 19, 2016

"You got interested when the gap was 27 drawings long."

No, we were working well before that; we posted this topic and graph on 2015-10-25 and by that time there were at least 37 draws missed for the consecutive 6, 7 and 8 clockwise moves.

What is interesting, after our initial post on 2015-10-25 , 5 short draws later on 2015-10-30 the 6, 7, 8 clockwise moves return.

"You claimed that the gap of 27 in 6,7, and 8 not appearing was evidence of a "flaw". "

No, we suspected, "So, given this is a computer generated number, is this flaw by accident or by design?", see questioning.

Also, there are only 8 possible three consecutive clockwise moves: 1,2,3; 2,3,4; 3,4,5; 4,5,6; 5,6,7; 6,7,8; 7,8,9, 8,9,10.

And, in that Q&A, the following conversation occurred; highlighting the important bits:

______________________________

needinghelp

Hello Mr. Rich,

Welcome, How did you hear about Lottery Post? Do you have a social media department dedicated to monitoring player strategies? Will the $100,000 cash game comeback or another Cash 5 type game? Thanks. -

Terry

We've followed Lottery Post for a long time now. It's fun to see the conversations and excitement that people have here. We have a social media staff who do a good job of staying on top of posts and updates. The All or Nothing game replaced Iowa's $100,000 Cash Game and we don't have plans at this time to bring back a cash 5 game. But we always appreciate input and will keep your comment in mind. And I really mean it. ______________________________

We suspect the next thing to do is, reveal who dddwww really is?

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

And, in that Q&A, the following conversation occurred; highlighting the important bits:

______________________________

needinghelp

Hello Mr. Rich,

Welcome, How did you hear about Lottery Post? Do you have a social media department dedicated to monitoring player strategies? Will the $100,000 cash game comeback or another Cash 5 type game? Thanks. -

Terry

We've followed Lottery Post for a long time now. It's fun to see the conversations and excitement that people have here. We have a social media staff who do a good job of staying on top of posts and updates. The All or Nothing game replaced Iowa's $100,000 Cash Game and we don't have plans at this time to bring back a cash 5 game. But we always appreciate input and will keep your comment in mind. And I really mean it. ______________________________

We suspect the next thing to do is, reveal who dddwww really is?

My guess would be, the poster is somehow involved with the Iowa lottery, or another states' lottery. They all monitor this website.

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on January 19, 2016

Back to your reply.

The 0 to 9 version of the 'clockwise only' is the 'clockwise and stop'.

The reason for the stop is because if the number is the same, no change occurred.

The Excel formula is =Mod((b - a), 10).

It actually is a simple cyclical differential for dial moves.

You'll find it will produce only numbers 0 to 9.

We'll update the Excel file later.

The joining of Random and Non-Random must have a Non-Random component thereby making it, in even the simplest forms of either add or subtract, Non-Random.

If the joining of Random and Non-Random were utterly random, Encryption and Decryption would not be possible.

Here's a few sets of an apparent random set of numbers.

United States Member #171734 January 11, 2016 127 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

Your code requires all the draw counts you are testing to be valid at the same time which only accurately tests for all the sequences hitting the draw counts while they are still all active. Since some are shorter, they should be permitted to shift within the longer sequence. An example, if all the sequences started at about the same time, say with this sequence:

1: 8

2: 6

3: 7

4-44: anything but 6,7,8

The shortest sequence of 43 for 8 could be reached on draw 44, the other draw counts would be 6:42 7:41

45: 8

Now 8 has met the goal of 43 but isn't active any longer and the others are still active and as long as 7 or 6 doesn't show up will meet their target of 48 and 52

BUT your code wouldn't detect that as it requires that they are all still ACTITVE when the condition is met. In other words, it picks up cases where

they are all still active at the end, which they don't need to be, the shorter ones only need to nest inside the larger ones and you will meet the effect of 43 in a row where 6,7,8 are "mssing".

So you miss a lot of different instances which inflates the probability

How many different instances do you miss? Think of a three pieces of paper, one 52 units long, one 48 and on 42. You right justify them and measure the probability of that occurring. They can't be left justified as they can't all start at the same time. You can simplify by removing 41 units from each and having one 11 long, one 7 long and 1 that is 1 long. You can slide the middle one 1, 2 or 3 units left and keep it within the longest one and not left justify it with the longest one. The shortest one can slide 1, 2, 4 or 5 units left and keep within the middle one.

So there are an additional 12 different ways the particular sequence you are looking for can be found that you won't find with your code so reduce your probability by a factor of 12.

Then we can talk about the other 121 combinations of 3 clockwise moves that we could test and if that isn't sufficient we can talk about the millions of other ways you can compare two numbers from 1-10 by modifying the 10x10 lookup table. But I haven't thought enough about whether

In other words, I'm pretty confident you can give me any two 300 sample long random sequences of numbers in the range of 0-9 and I can find a similar sequence of "missing" values.

United States Member #171734 January 11, 2016 127 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on January 19, 2016

We've always known they were here.

Which one? uh-ah, heh-heh... the ploy thickens.

Did you dream that?

Nope, not associated with the gaming or lottery industry in any way shape or form.

Now back to reality and the laws of probability and why if you look long enough and hard enough you can see lizards on Mars and improbable sequences in lottery drawings that aren't improbable at all.

United States Member #171734 January 11, 2016 127 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on January 19, 2016

The joining of Random and Non-Random must have a Non-Random component thereby making it, in even the simplest forms of either add or subtract, Non-Random.

If the joining of Random and Non-Random were utterly random, Encryption and Decryption would not be possible.

Here's a few sets of an apparent random set of numbers.

Something is hiding in them by altering some of them at the moment of selection.

In other words, some of them are fixed.

One time pad encryption is a perfect example of taking a completely non-random sequence "joining it" with a completely random sequence and it resulting in a completely random output.

You continue to simply be mistaken. Or maybe just confused. Maybe you aren't aware that EVERY random sequence can be decomposed into two sequences, one which is random and one which is not and the sum of the two equals the original random sequence? But that is utterly meaningless and certainly doesn't mean adding a random sequence with non-random sequence results in a non-random sequence.

That you can do a lousy job of encryption isn't proof that combining a random sequence and non-random sequence result in a non-random sequence.

But at least you are now using "joining" instead of addition. Yep, it is certainly true that if you take a random sequence and stick "My names is we" in front that you don't have a random sequence any longer. Nobody has claimed otherwise as it is both obvious and unhelpful to know that.

United States Member #171734 January 11, 2016 127 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on January 19, 2016

My guess would be, the poster is somehow involved with the Iowa lottery, or another states' lottery. They all monitor this website.

I doubt it.

The Minnesota Lottery has guaranteed 50% house odds. The only thing they are interest in is increasing lottery sales. Nothing wrong with that or with buying lottery tickets or having fun trying to pick numbers based on the phase of the moon and price of butter or using past picks. Just don't get suckered into thinking that you can make money at it. If you think there are laws in the universe that govern how numbers come up, go to Vegas and bet on roulette. You'll still lose money but at least the house only has a 5.26% edge instead of 50% edge and you might get some free drinks out of it as well.

Whoops, now you'll think I'm a shill for Las Vegas, hate the place personally and no I'm not.

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 7:36 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on January 19, 2016

The joining of Random and Non-Random must have a Non-Random component thereby making it, in even the simplest forms of either add or subtract, Non-Random.

If the joining of Random and Non-Random were utterly random, Encryption and Decryption would not be possible.

Here's a few sets of an apparent random set of numbers.

United States Member #171734 January 11, 2016 127 Posts Offline

Posted: January 19, 2016, 7:46 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by lakerben on January 19, 2016

Let me clear my throat. Patooee!

If, I say if we go with so called permutations or combinations of say 123.

123

213

312

132

231

We play str/box

If the combo hits we have wins of

$290

$40

$40

$40

$40

Which is $5 spent for $450 a $445 profit. And if we get sure of ourself we could have the clerk run he same slip 4 times. Close to 2 grand for a $20 bet.

I rest my case.

You are welcome to bet anyway you want, I evaluated the JADE One Hit Wonder based on the specific instructions on how to use it.

Thanks for sharing with me that you've had winners before. Buy enough tickets, anyone can win, they just lose more than the win.

Not sure how you are choosing 5 of the possible 8 permutations. But I'll go with:

x1 x2 x3 as the 3 digits and your 5 tickets you puchase will be

x1 x2 x3 x2 x1 x3 x3 x1 x2 x1 x3 x2 x2 x3 x1

I'll take my spreadsheet I created for the JADE One Hit Wonder evaluation, do your 5 tickets per drawing and report back with how well it would have done from Jan 1, 2010 to April 30, 2010.

You'll be buying 111*5 = $555 worth of tickets and I'm going to guess the result is you'll lose about $275 over those 111 drawings.

Now the drawback to analysis in your case will be the substantially fewer number of tickets will result in a higher standard deviation from the expected loss. But that's OK, i'll give it a run just the same. Give me 30 minutes to code up the Excel for your ticket choices