Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 9, 2016, 12:16 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Pick 3/4 Meter Made Math Moves

Topic closed. 250 replies. Last post 2 months ago by JADELottery.

Page 13 of 17
59
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
New Member

United States
Member #171734
January 11, 2016
127 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 19, 2016, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

I used the combos you told me you used.

 

I don't have a notion of perfect, I am merely running real predictions based on systems against real drawings and seeing if the results were what probability theory predicts (ie losing an average of half your bets over time) or not.  Isn't validation an important part of any experiment?

 

If you don't have a system and just pick combos based on how you feel that day, I have no problem with it because I believe every pick is exactly as good as any other pick.  Pick them based on how many chickens you saw on your way to the sawmill or on the temperature in Toledo plus the phase of the moon or do a Quick Pick and then sacrifice a chicken.  Results should be exactly the same over the long run.

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
    West Concord, MN
    United States
    Member #21
    December 7, 2001
    3675 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 19, 2016, 11:33 pm - IP Logged

    Not sure what "actually" has to do with it.  The JADE One Hit Wonder produced results that were consistent with what a random pick would have produced and a loss consistent with the 50% house odds the MN lottery has.  In other words, it didn't provide any advantage at all much less double the probability that would be needed to win consistently.  But if you can point me to another 100 days of Minnesota Daily 3 predictions you've made with the new and improved One Hit Wonder I'd be delighted to see how it really did.

    the One Hit Wonder has become the JADE's Pick 3 Hot Box 11 and JADE's Pick 4 Hot Box 11

    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
    Use at your own risk.

    Order is a Subset of Chaos
    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
    Wisdom is Not Censored
    Douglas Paul Smallish
    Jehocifer

      Avatar
      New Member

      United States
      Member #171734
      January 11, 2016
      127 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 19, 2016, 11:43 pm - IP Logged

      "Clockwise moves don't have to be "consecutive", wouldn't it be just as noteworthy if 1,7,8 were all missing for 37 consecutive draws?"

      no, the observation is 3 consecutive clockwise only, most specifically 6, 7, and 8.

      You aren't getting it, yes you observed 6,7,8 but if it occurred in 1,2,3 you also would have OBSERVED it and announced there was a flaw in the system.

      The only reason you OBSERVED only 3 consecutive numbers is be

      cause you limited your view to a graphical view that made those more obvious.  But if you were thorough and imagined there was a flaw then you would have looked for any set of three, not just an arbitrary  "consecutive" set. 

      My point, which you aren't getting because you don't have a mathematics background, is you are suffering from an observation flaw.

      Naturally you ascribed the pattern stopping after you noticed it to someone reading your report and changing something, the more rational belief would be that random streaks start unpredictably and end unpredictably.  In particularly, on EVERY draw there was a 70% chance of the streak ending.  Yet you are surprised that it did. 

      I can't post links but Google for an article on Forbes titled "Why Coincidences, Miracles And Rare Events Happen Every Day". It says the very same things I've been saying. 

       

      Pay close attention to the portion I highlighted:

      David J. Hand: The key thing here is that it is clearly a very highly improbable event. But even so, the improbability principle can explain it. It does this mainly via its law of truly large numbers, but also using the law of near enough. Essentially, there are vast numbers of blackjack games played around the world each year, so although the chance of such an event on any particular game is very small, the chance that it occurs somewhere amongst all those millions of games is quite high. And we must also bear in mind that that’s not the only unusual event which would lead to a comment. Other striking configurations of cards would do so also. Add all these things up, and it soon reaches the level at which we should expect some apparently extraordinarily unlikely event to occur.

        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
        United States
        Member #21
        December 7, 2001
        3675 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 19, 2016, 11:54 pm - IP Logged

        You aren't getting it, yes you observed 6,7,8 but if it occurred in 1,2,3 you also would have OBSERVED it and announced there was a flaw in the system.

        The only reason you OBSERVED only 3 consecutive numbers is be

        cause you limited your view to a graphical view that made those more obvious.  But if you were thorough and imagined there was a flaw then you would have looked for any set of three, not just an arbitrary  "consecutive" set. 

        My point, which you aren't getting because you don't have a mathematics background, is you are suffering from an observation flaw.

        Naturally you ascribed the pattern stopping after you noticed it to someone reading your report and changing something, the more rational belief would be that random streaks start unpredictably and end unpredictably.  In particularly, on EVERY draw there was a 70% chance of the streak ending.  Yet you are surprised that it did. 

        I can't post links but Google for an article on Forbes titled "Why Coincidences, Miracles And Rare Events Happen Every Day". It says the very same things I've been saying. 

         

        Pay close attention to the portion I highlighted:

        David J. Hand: The key thing here is that it is clearly a very highly improbable event. But even so, the improbability principle can explain it. It does this mainly via its law of truly large numbers, but also using the law of near enough. Essentially, there are vast numbers of blackjack games played around the world each year, so although the chance of such an event on any particular game is very small, the chance that it occurs somewhere amongst all those millions of games is quite high. And we must also bear in mind that that’s not the only unusual event which would lead to a comment. Other striking configurations of cards would do so also. Add all these things up, and it soon reaches the level at which we should expect some apparently extraordinarily unlikely event to occur.

        "...if it occurred in 1,2,3 you also would have OBSERVED it..."

        wrong again.

        we didn't observe it in the entire history of the MN Pick 3 in both ball drawn and computer drawn.

        and we didn't observe it in our 100,000 simulation.

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
        Use at your own risk.

        Order is a Subset of Chaos
        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
        Wisdom is Not Censored
        Douglas Paul Smallish
        Jehocifer

          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
          The Quantum Master
          West Concord, MN
          United States
          Member #21
          December 7, 2001
          3675 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 20, 2016, 12:19 am - IP Logged

          We can see when we apply the Clockwise Only formula, it reveals the truth about the Numbers.

          As you can see, there is a noticeable problem in the upper half of the Clockwise Only numbers 1 to 10.

          There are fewer occurrences in the Clockwise Only from about 6 to 10.

          You'll also notice these non-random selections are not very obvious in the Numbers itself.

          Only by comparing the Numbers to itself using a simple difference of (b - a) does it show the crime.

          We think we might be on to something.

          A useless, nobody, high school dropout such as us shouldn't be worth all the effort.

          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
          Use at your own risk.

          Order is a Subset of Chaos
          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
          Wisdom is Not Censored
          Douglas Paul Smallish
          Jehocifer

            Avatar
            New Member

            United States
            Member #171734
            January 11, 2016
            127 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 20, 2016, 12:31 am - IP Logged

            "...if it occurred in 1,2,3 you also would have OBSERVED it..."

            wrong again.

            we didn't observe it in the entire history of the MN Pick 3 in both ball drawn and computer drawn.

            and we didn't observe it in our 100,000 simulation.

            I said IF you had observed it.

            I didn't say it was observable in your data set.

            The point is the probability of observing the event has to include ALL the events you COULD HAVE observed.  All sets of three have an exactly equal probability of having the same gap.

            Look hard enough with enough data manipulations and you can find all sorts of improbable things easily.

              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
              United States
              Member #21
              December 7, 2001
              3675 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 20, 2016, 12:38 am - IP Logged

              I said IF you had observed it.

              I didn't say it was observable in your data set.

              The point is the probability of observing the event has to include ALL the events you COULD HAVE observed.  All sets of three have an exactly equal probability of having the same gap.

              Look hard enough with enough data manipulations and you can find all sorts of improbable things easily.

              But we didn't

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

                Avatar
                New Member

                United States
                Member #171734
                January 11, 2016
                127 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 20, 2016, 12:45 am - IP Logged

                We think we might be on to something.

                A useless, nobody, high school dropout such as us shouldn't be worth all the effort.

                I think educating people is always worth the effort.

                There are a lot of fundamental misconceptions about probabilities.  Some you see in posts by people who think you shouldn't play 1 2 3 4 5 6 because it "can never come up" but are happy to play some other set of numbers that have exactly the same probability.  Plenty of people tnink statistical analysis of drawings gives them an edge, it doesn't.  Others think that curve fitting to past results can be used to predict future results, it doesn't. 

                And then there are people like you who doesn't understand that you can make things as likely as you want if you choose after the event.  This is the Law of Selection. One of the advantages of not dropping out of high school or college, I guess.  Probably not the most important advantage though.

                You go looking for something odd, I guarantee you can find it.  And as I said before, I can just about guarantee I can find an equally long sequence of three "moves" in a short sequence of numbers, say 1000, EVERY time.  All I need to do is look hard enough.  Look in enough digit positions, look in enough sets of three and look at enough different move types.

                And when I do it will mean exactly what your find means, nothing.

                  Avatar
                  New Member

                  United States
                  Member #171734
                  January 11, 2016
                  127 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 20, 2016, 12:54 am - IP Logged

                  But we didn't

                  You don't have to observe it in a particular data set for there be a probability that it would occur, so when you compute the probability of something like 3 "moves" having a simultaneous long gap you have to compute the probability that ANY of those sets could occur.  Same is true if you are running a simulation to see what the probability is.

                  If it HAD occurred in 1,2,3 and not 6,7,8 you would have had exactly the same reaction.

                  Let me give you another example.  Let's say 3 4 5 6 7 8 comes up in the Powerball.  You can't say "Wow, what are the odds of THAT occurring" and proceed to compute that the odds are 1 in 292 million.  Because you would have said "Wow, what are the odds of THAT happening" if any of thousand, if not millions of other interesting combinations had also come up.

                   

                  At the very least you would have to compute the probability that any sequential set of 6 numbers came up, and that isn't 1 in 292 million.

                   

                  You saw 6,7,8 but it could have been 1,2,3 or 2,3,4 or ... 8,9.10 and you would have had the same reaction.  If you were more thorough and used a computer instead of a eyeballs to find long gap in 3 "moves" you would have been able to "see" them in 1,2,4 and 1,2,5 ... and 7,8,10 as well and they would have been exactly as interesting and notable as the 6,7,8.  So you really have to compute the odds of any of those occurring.

                  I won't even bring up the millions of possible ways to relate the two number, you need to understand how to crawl before you can walk.

                    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                    The Quantum Master
                    West Concord, MN
                    United States
                    Member #21
                    December 7, 2001
                    3675 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 20, 2016, 12:54 am - IP Logged

                    I think educating people is always worth the effort.

                    There are a lot of fundamental misconceptions about probabilities.  Some you see in posts by people who think you shouldn't play 1 2 3 4 5 6 because it "can never come up" but are happy to play some other set of numbers that have exactly the same probability.  Plenty of people tnink statistical analysis of drawings gives them an edge, it doesn't.  Others think that curve fitting to past results can be used to predict future results, it doesn't. 

                    And then there are people like you who doesn't understand that you can make things as likely as you want if you choose after the event.  This is the Law of Selection. One of the advantages of not dropping out of high school or college, I guess.  Probably not the most important advantage though.

                    You go looking for something odd, I guarantee you can find it.  And as I said before, I can just about guarantee I can find an equally long sequence of three "moves" in a short sequence of numbers, say 1000, EVERY time.  All I need to do is look hard enough.  Look in enough digit positions, look in enough sets of three and look at enough different move types.

                    And when I do it will mean exactly what your find means, nothing.

                    Ah, that's nice.

                    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                    Use at your own risk.

                    Order is a Subset of Chaos
                    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                    Wisdom is Not Censored
                    Douglas Paul Smallish
                    Jehocifer

                      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
                      Member #21
                      December 7, 2001
                      3675 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 20, 2016, 1:06 am - IP Logged

                      You don't have to observe it in a particular data set for there be a probability that it would occur, so when you compute the probability of something like 3 "moves" having a simultaneous long gap you have to compute the probability that ANY of those sets could occur.  Same is true if you are running a simulation to see what the probability is.

                      If it HAD occurred in 1,2,3 and not 6,7,8 you would have had exactly the same reaction.

                      Let me give you another example.  Let's say 3 4 5 6 7 8 comes up in the Powerball.  You can't say "Wow, what are the odds of THAT occurring" and proceed to compute that the odds are 1 in 292 million.  Because you would have said "Wow, what are the odds of THAT happening" if any of thousand, if not millions of other interesting combinations had also come up.

                       

                      At the very least you would have to compute the probability that any sequential set of 6 numbers came up, and that isn't 1 in 292 million.

                       

                      You saw 6,7,8 but it could have been 1,2,3 or 2,3,4 or ... 8,9.10 and you would have had the same reaction.  If you were more thorough and used a computer instead of a eyeballs to find long gap in 3 "moves" you would have been able to "see" them in 1,2,4 and 1,2,5 ... and 7,8,10 as well and they would have been exactly as interesting and notable as the 6,7,8.  So you really have to compute the odds of any of those occurring.

                      I won't even bring up the millions of possible ways to relate the two number, you need to understand how to crawl before you can walk.

                      But 1,2,3 didn't show in mn pick 3 data and our 100,000 samples, not even the 6,7,8 in the 100,000 sample run.

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
                        West Concord, MN
                        United States
                        Member #21
                        December 7, 2001
                        3675 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 20, 2016, 6:57 am - IP Logged

                        sniff, sniff, sniff, I smell a jimbozo.

                        RL

                        We're thinking more butt-plug after the latest exchange.

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
                        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                        Wisdom is Not Censored
                        Douglas Paul Smallish
                        Jehocifer

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                          United States
                          Member #59354
                          March 13, 2008
                          3983 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 20, 2016, 7:12 am - IP Logged

                          Jade

                          LOL  Poke He's a derivative man, finical and otherwise.

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                            The Quantum Master
                            West Concord, MN
                            United States
                            Member #21
                            December 7, 2001
                            3675 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 20, 2016, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

                            Thanks jade!

                            We see a formatting issue.

                            One moment...

                            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                            Use at your own risk.

                            Order is a Subset of Chaos
                            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                            Wisdom is Not Censored
                            Douglas Paul Smallish
                            Jehocifer

                              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                              The Quantum Master
                              West Concord, MN
                              United States
                              Member #21
                              December 7, 2001
                              3675 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: January 20, 2016, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

                              Ok, fixed the table format issue.

                              We have another update comin'.

                              We said the '=Mod((b - a), 10)' is a cyclical differential for dial moves.

                              There's an integration method that works in the opposite direction.

                              See here:

                               

                              Here's a Pick 3 example:

                              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                              Use at your own risk.

                              Order is a Subset of Chaos
                              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                              Wisdom is Not Censored
                              Douglas Paul Smallish
                              Jehocifer

                                 
                                Page 13 of 17