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Can't beat the state P3 Odds but maybe

Topic closed. 51 replies. Last post 10 months ago by Todd.

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Saint Martinville
United States
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May 30, 2014
283 Posts
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Posted: January 30, 2016, 1:45 pm - IP Logged

                 Can't beat the State's cheap P3 odds but how close can we actually get using "Math Averages" as a System?

 

Of course, if we play Half the Boxes every draw we will win about 50% of the time +/-   

If we were to play 25% of the boxes we would win around 25% of the time Plus/minus in the long run.

 

 So here is the question.

      Where is the sweet spot? What average amounts of numbers or wagers will get us the closest to a profit for now? 

      What is our best Straights strategy for right now? Box strategy? What is our best "Money Management strategy" for each method? 

                              We still can't win enough or often enough but HOW CLOSE CAN WE GET using averages? 

      Perhaps some sort of "timing strategy" is our only hope for now. Perhaps we should blow it all on one draw and run for the door? Would that get us the closest to a profit?     

 

    Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   

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    South Carolina
    United States
    Member #18322
    July 9, 2005
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    Posted: January 30, 2016, 2:30 pm - IP Logged

                     Can't beat the State's cheap P3 odds but how close can we actually get using "Math Averages" as a System?

     

    Of course, if we play Half the Boxes every draw we will win about 50% of the time +/-   

    If we were to play 25% of the boxes we would win around 25% of the time Plus/minus in the long run.

     

     So here is the question.

          Where is the sweet spot? What average amounts of numbers or wagers will get us the closest to a profit for now? 

          What is our best Straights strategy for right now? Box strategy? What is our best "Money Management strategy" for each method? 

                                  We still can't win enough or often enough but HOW CLOSE CAN WE GET using averages? 

          Perhaps some sort of "timing strategy" is our only hope for now. Perhaps we should blow it all on one draw and run for the door? Would that get us the closest to a profit?     

     

        Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   

    I think a progressive wagering strategy on Pick 3/4 works best for generating a profit in the long term.

     

    BTW, where is Saint Martinville ???  What state do you live in and play in ???

      mjwinsmith's avatar - moon

      United States
      Member #391
      June 8, 2002
      16276 Posts
      Online
      Posted: January 30, 2016, 2:39 pm - IP Logged

                       Can't beat the State's cheap P3 odds but how close can we actually get using "Math Averages" as a System?

       

      Of course, if we play Half the Boxes every draw we will win about 50% of the time +/-   

      If we were to play 25% of the boxes we would win around 25% of the time Plus/minus in the long run.

       

       So here is the question.

            Where is the sweet spot? What average amounts of numbers or wagers will get us the closest to a profit for now? 

            What is our best Straights strategy for right now? Box strategy? What is our best "Money Management strategy" for each method? 

                                    We still can't win enough or often enough but HOW CLOSE CAN WE GET using averages? 

            Perhaps some sort of "timing strategy" is our only hope for now. Perhaps we should blow it all on one draw and run for the door? Would that get us the closest to a profit?     

       

          Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   

      Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   

      What do you consider the "Correct Odds" to be ?

       ~Michael

      "Don't be a Dummy, Make 'Dat Money"

      Mjwinsmith's Blog Page:   http://blogs.lotterypost.com/mjwinsmith/

      "How to Play My Pick-4 System": https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306450

        Edibs3's avatar - not found.png
        Saint Martinville
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        Posted: January 30, 2016, 3:02 pm - IP Logged

        Thanks DC. For sure progressive wagering has to be at the top of most popular list. Still, it would be nice to see which method using averages would get us  closest to a profit, or at least the most successful amount of wins  or merely hits    Perhaps the most hits even without a profit.

         Also, It is very strange how all of these State governments are the only institutions that allow they can cheat us with their obvious "Price Fixing" 

         One would think that competition would affect some sort of a little change. Yes, different payoffs or terms or at least something in different states by now. $$$ Hmmm....

         Funny, maybe it's just 50 coincidences in a row or something.

         

         Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit!

         How much better?  At least something.

          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
          Economy class
          Belgium
          Member #123700
          February 27, 2012
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          Posted: January 30, 2016, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

          How about a tax regulation? You don't win, then you get the tax-part of the paid tickets back?

            mjwinsmith's avatar - moon

            United States
            Member #391
            June 8, 2002
            16276 Posts
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            Posted: January 30, 2016, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

            How about a tax regulation? You don't win, then you get the tax-part of the paid tickets back?

            You can only offset loses against wins, a net loss is still a net loss :(

            "Don't be a Dummy, Make 'Dat Money"

            Mjwinsmith's Blog Page:   http://blogs.lotterypost.com/mjwinsmith/

            "How to Play My Pick-4 System": https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306450

              Edibs3's avatar - not found.png
              Saint Martinville
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              Posted: January 31, 2016, 9:39 am - IP Logged

                                                      Image result for market collusion price fixing

                                                               We State Lotteries have to stick together.

                                        No State will pay off wins more or charge less to play than any other. Deal?

                BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                Dump Water Florida
                United States
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                June 5, 2002
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                Posted: January 31, 2016, 9:58 am - IP Logged

                Thanks DC. For sure progressive wagering has to be at the top of most popular list. Still, it would be nice to see which method using averages would get us  closest to a profit, or at least the most successful amount of wins  or merely hits    Perhaps the most hits even without a profit.

                 Also, It is very strange how all of these State governments are the only institutions that allow they can cheat us with their obvious "Price Fixing" 

                 One would think that competition would affect some sort of a little change. Yes, different payoffs or terms or at least something in different states by now. $$$ Hmmm....

                 Funny, maybe it's just 50 coincidences in a row or something.

                 

                 Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit!

                 How much better?  At least something.

                It's a negative expectation game, even if it had Roulette odds, your money (action) might last longer, but the state would still get it all eventually unless you managed to win big and walk away never to play again.

                Systems are like that rocket ship in your avatar, looks like it's flying, but really hanging by a thread with sparklers up it's tail. 



                BobP

                  SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                  Economy class
                  Belgium
                  Member #123700
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                  Posted: January 31, 2016, 11:24 am - IP Logged

                  Roulette

                  Play red: €20 (chance simple, p() = 0.487)
                  Case Win: 20 + 20 = €40

                  Play same ratio at pick 3

                  Play same chances: €487
                  Case Win: 500 - 487 = €3

                  If pick 3 paid the same, you would have 487 + 487 = around €974. 

                  Play Megamillions same chances: ...

                    Edibs3's avatar - not found.png
                    Saint Martinville
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                    Posted: January 31, 2016, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                    It's a negative expectation game, even if it had Roulette odds, your money (action) might last longer, but the state would still get it all eventually unless you managed to win big and walk away never to play again.

                    Systems are like that rocket ship in your avatar, looks like it's flying, but really hanging by a thread with sparklers up it's tail. 



                    BobP

                    You're right Bobp. Never mind.

                     

                      Hey, wait a minute. All retail gambling is a negative expectation game. House odds right? Some more than others. So, what we're talkin' here is the level and degree of odds. How do they all end up the same way? 

                      So, what you're saying is blah blah "gambling bad". Ok, sure.

                     That's true, but if we go to Disney World and pay for some thrills to go on a few rides there, we expect it to last for more than 15 or 20 seconds right? 

                     I think it's the State Lotteries collusion's with crummy pay off odds and price fixing terms that suck. These States are the one's hanging the players by a thread and sticking sparklers up our tails with those odds. 

                     Good point about House odds Gambling being bad however.

                    I guess we're just looking for a little longer lasting effervescence from those sparklers they stick up there.       

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
                      March 24, 2001
                      19901 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: January 31, 2016, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

                      Check out what the best pick 3/4 predictors are doing and start from there.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        One2win's avatar - Trek Galaxy2.gif
                        MyTown
                        Bahamas
                        Member #167573
                        July 20, 2015
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                        Posted: January 31, 2016, 12:46 pm - IP Logged

                        Thanks DC. For sure progressive wagering has to be at the top of most popular list. Still, it would be nice to see which method using averages would get us  closest to a profit, or at least the most successful amount of wins  or merely hits    Perhaps the most hits even without a profit.

                         Also, It is very strange how all of these State governments are the only institutions that allow they can cheat us with their obvious "Price Fixing" 

                         One would think that competition would affect some sort of a little change. Yes, different payoffs or terms or at least something in different states by now. $$$ Hmmm....

                         Funny, maybe it's just 50 coincidences in a row or something.

                         

                         Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit!

                         How much better?  At least something.

                            "Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit! "

                             This is an interesting observation, if this is in fact the case, then obviously it means that they don't like the idea of you (us) winning much, even if we're lucky enough to win.  It just goes to prove that the ones who cheat you out of your money have a "dog in the manger" attitude - if they can't win and get it, then they certainly don't want you (us) to win and get anything either.  They simply don't want you to have it.  My God! what sons offa beaches they are - I detest people like this with this type of mindset - I hate them with a passion!  I gonna have to find a way to yuck it out of their grimy little hands so I can laugh in their stupid faces!!

                        Success is liking yourself, what you do and how you do it!

                        Psalm 122:6

                          CTNY's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                          New Haven, CT - Queens, NY
                          United States
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                          Posted: January 31, 2016, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

                          I think the odds are good as they are.

                          I don't care to beat the house.

                          Because you cant beat the house. Ever.

                          I just want consistent wins.

                          Consistent Wins  + Progressive Wagering =  Big Grin

                           

                          These numbers games require the same discipline required

                          when investing in the stock market.

                          Watch your resistance.

                          Watch your support and place your stops lol

                          Jumping from strategy to

                          strategy is a sure fire way to LOSE!!

                          The goal is to approach the Pick 3 & Pick 4 game sensibly and systematically!! Wink

                           I'm not like the guy who predicted the end of the world and nothing happened.

                            Avatar
                            Winner
                            South Carolina
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                            Posted: January 31, 2016, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

                            I think the odds are good as they are.

                            I don't care to beat the house.

                            Because you cant beat the house. Ever.

                            I just want consistent wins.

                            Consistent Wins  + Progressive Wagering =  Big Grin

                             

                            These numbers games require the same discipline required

                            when investing in the stock market.

                            Watch your resistance.

                            Watch your support and place your stops lol

                            Jumping from strategy to

                            strategy is a sure fire way to LOSE!!

                            Thank you for posting this.   I still can't believe folks jumping from system to strategy to system to strategy. Like they change their underwear.     

                             

                            Find one and improve it ......

                            my name Lil Darryl   you got some Milk

                              CTNY's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                              New Haven, CT - Queens, NY
                              United States
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                              Posted: January 31, 2016, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

                              Thank you for posting this.   I still can't believe folks jumping from system to strategy to system to strategy. Like they change their underwear.     

                               

                              Find one and improve it ......

                              Right.

                              Pick 3 and 4 is a very straight forward and basic game.

                              Some complicate the game with puzzles, hills, valleys, pi, long division etc

                              The goal is to approach the Pick 3 & Pick 4 game sensibly and systematically!! Wink

                               I'm not like the guy who predicted the end of the world and nothing happened.