Can't beat the state P3 Odds but maybePrev TopicNext Topic

• Edibs3

  

  Saint Martinville
  United States
  Member #155,810
  May 30, 2014
  283 Posts
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  Jan 30, 2016, 1:45 pm

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                   Can't beat the State's cheap P3 odds but how close can we actually get using "Math Averages" as a System?

   

  Of course, if we play Half the Boxes every draw we will win about 50% of the time +/-   

  If we were to play 25% of the boxes we would win around 25% of the time Plus/minus in the long run.

   

   So here is the question.

        Where is the sweet spot? What average amounts of numbers or wagers will get us the closest to a profit for now? 

        What is our best Straights strategy for right now? Box strategy? What is our best "Money Management strategy" for each method? 

                                We still can't win enough or often enough but HOW CLOSE CAN WE GET using averages? 

        Perhaps some sort of "timing strategy" is our only hope for now. Perhaps we should blow it all on one draw and run for the door? Would that get us the closest to a profit?     

   

      Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   
• destinycreation

  

  South Carolina
  United States
  Member #18,321
  July 9, 2005
  1,840 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 30, 2016, 2:30 pm

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  In response to Edibs3

  Quote: Originally posted by Edibs3 on Jan 30, 2016

                   Can't beat the State's cheap P3 odds but how close can we actually get using "Math Averages" as a System?

   

  Of course, if we play Half the Boxes every draw we will win about 50% of the time +/-   

  If we were to play 25% of the boxes we would win around 25% of the time Plus/minus in the long run.

   

   So here is the question.

        Where is the sweet spot? What average amounts of numbers or wagers will get us the closest to a profit for now? 

        What is our best Straights strategy for right now? Box strategy? What is our best "Money Management strategy" for each method? 

                                We still can't win enough or often enough but HOW CLOSE CAN WE GET using averages? 

        Perhaps some sort of "timing strategy" is our only hope for now. Perhaps we should blow it all on one draw and run for the door? Would that get us the closest to a profit?     

   

      Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   

  I think a progressive wagering strategy on Pick 3/4 works best for generating a profit in the long term.

   

  BTW, where is Saint Martinville ???  What state do you live in and play in ???
• mjwinsmith

  

  100

  United States
  Member #391
  June 8, 2002
  18,280 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 30, 2016, 2:39 pm

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  In response to Edibs3

  Quote: Originally posted by Edibs3 on Jan 30, 2016

                   Can't beat the State's cheap P3 odds but how close can we actually get using "Math Averages" as a System?

   

  Of course, if we play Half the Boxes every draw we will win about 50% of the time +/-   

  If we were to play 25% of the boxes we would win around 25% of the time Plus/minus in the long run.

   

   So here is the question.

        Where is the sweet spot? What average amounts of numbers or wagers will get us the closest to a profit for now? 

        What is our best Straights strategy for right now? Box strategy? What is our best "Money Management strategy" for each method? 

                                We still can't win enough or often enough but HOW CLOSE CAN WE GET using averages? 

        Perhaps some sort of "timing strategy" is our only hope for now. Perhaps we should blow it all on one draw and run for the door? Would that get us the closest to a profit?     

   

      Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   

  Until the States pay us something closer to the correct odds or something a little more fair how Close can we get right now?   

  What do you consider the "Correct Odds" to be ?

   ~Michael

  "What Lie is for today, is What TRUTH will seek tomorrow"

  "If You Have A Democracy, Don't Try And Replace It"

    mjwinsmith
• Edibs3

  

  Saint Martinville
  United States
  Member #155,810
  May 30, 2014
  283 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 30, 2016, 3:02 pm

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  Thanks DC. For sure progressive wagering has to be at the top of most popular list. Still, it would be nice to see which method using averages would get us  closest to a profit, or at least the most successful amount of wins  or merely hits.     Perhaps the most hits even without a profit.

   Also, It is very strange how all of these State governments are the only institutions that allow they can cheat us with their obvious "Price Fixing" 

   One would think that competition would affect some sort of a little change. Yes, different payoffs or terms or at least something in different states by now. $$$ Hmmm....

   Funny, maybe it's just 50 coincidences in a row or something.

   

   Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit!

   How much better?  At least something.
• SergeM

  

  Economy class
  Belgium
  Member #123,692
  February 27, 2012
  4,035 Posts
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  Jan 30, 2016, 6:15 pm

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  How about a tax regulation? You don't win, then you get the tax-part of the paid tickets back?
• mjwinsmith

  

  100

  United States
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  June 8, 2002
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  Jan 30, 2016, 6:35 pm

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  In response to SergeM

  Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on Jan 30, 2016

  How about a tax regulation? You don't win, then you get the tax-part of the paid tickets back?

  You can only offset loses against wins, a net loss is still a net loss :(

  "What Lie is for today, is What TRUTH will seek tomorrow"

  "If You Have A Democracy, Don't Try And Replace It"

    mjwinsmith
• Edibs3

  

  Saint Martinville
  United States
  Member #155,810
  May 30, 2014
  283 Posts
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  Jan 31, 2016, 9:39 am

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                                                   We State Lotteries have to stick together.

                            No State will pay off wins more or charge less to play than any other. Deal?
• BobP

  

  Dump Water Florida
  United States
  Member #380
  June 5, 2002
  3,678 Posts
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  Jan 31, 2016, 9:58 am

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  In response to Edibs3

  Quote: Originally posted by Edibs3 on Jan 30, 2016

  Thanks DC. For sure progressive wagering has to be at the top of most popular list. Still, it would be nice to see which method using averages would get us  closest to a profit, or at least the most successful amount of wins  or merely hits.     Perhaps the most hits even without a profit.

   Also, It is very strange how all of these State governments are the only institutions that allow they can cheat us with their obvious "Price Fixing" 

   One would think that competition would affect some sort of a little change. Yes, different payoffs or terms or at least something in different states by now. $$$ Hmmm....

   Funny, maybe it's just 50 coincidences in a row or something.

   

   Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit!

   How much better?  At least something.

  It's a negative expectation game, even if it had Roulette odds, your money (action) might last longer, but the state would still get it all eventually unless you managed to win big and walk away never to play again.
  
  Systems are like that rocket ship in your avatar, looks like it's flying, but really hanging by a thread with sparklers up it's tail. 
  
  
  
  BobP
• SergeM

  

  Economy class
  Belgium
  Member #123,692
  February 27, 2012
  4,035 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 31, 2016, 11:24 am

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  Roulette

  Play red: €20 (chance simple, p() = 0.487)
  Case Win: 20 + 20 = €40

  Play same ratio at pick 3

  Play same chances: €487
  Case Win: 500 - 487 = €3

  If pick 3 paid the same, you would have 487 + 487 = around €974. 

  Play Megamillions same chances: ...
• Edibs3

  

  Saint Martinville
  United States
  Member #155,810
  May 30, 2014
  283 Posts
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  Jan 31, 2016, 11:33 am

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  In response to BobP

  Quote: Originally posted by BobP on Jan 31, 2016

  It's a negative expectation game, even if it had Roulette odds, your money (action) might last longer, but the state would still get it all eventually unless you managed to win big and walk away never to play again.
  
  Systems are like that rocket ship in your avatar, looks like it's flying, but really hanging by a thread with sparklers up it's tail. 
  
  
  
  BobP

  You're right Bobp. Never mind.

   

    Hey, wait a minute. All retail gambling is a negative expectation game. House odds right? Some more than others. So, what we're talkin' here is the level and degree of odds. How do they all end up the same way? 

    So, what you're saying is blah blah "gambling bad". Ok, sure.

   That's true, but if we go to Disney World and pay for some thrills to go on a few rides there, we expect it to last for more than 15 or 20 seconds right? 

   I think it's the State Lotteries collusion's with crummy pay off odds and price fixing terms that suck. These States are the one's hanging the players by a thread and sticking sparklers up our tails with those odds. 

   Good point about House odds Gambling being bad however.

  I guess we're just looking for a little longer lasting effervescence from those sparklers they stick up there.       
• RJOh

  

  100

  mid-Ohio
  United States
  Member #9
  March 24, 2001
  20,272 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 31, 2016, 12:17 pm

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  Check out what the best pick 3/4 predictors are doing and start from there.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• One2win

  

  MyTown
  Bahamas
  Member #167,563
  July 20, 2015
  281 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 31, 2016, 12:46 pm

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  In response to Edibs3

  Quote: Originally posted by Edibs3 on Jan 30, 2016

  Thanks DC. For sure progressive wagering has to be at the top of most popular list. Still, it would be nice to see which method using averages would get us  closest to a profit, or at least the most successful amount of wins  or merely hits.     Perhaps the most hits even without a profit.

   Also, It is very strange how all of these State governments are the only institutions that allow they can cheat us with their obvious "Price Fixing" 

   One would think that competition would affect some sort of a little change. Yes, different payoffs or terms or at least something in different states by now. $$$ Hmmm....

   Funny, maybe it's just 50 coincidences in a row or something.

   

   Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit!

   How much better?  At least something.

      "Evidently these State Governments could let us play for half the cost and still pay us $$$ double the payoff odds and still make a profit! "

       This is an interesting observation, if this is in fact the case, then obviously it means that they don't like the idea of you (us) winning much, even if we're lucky enough to win.  It just goes to prove that the ones who cheat you out of your money have a "dog in the manger" attitude - if they can't win and get it, then they certainly don't want you (us) to win and get anything either.  They simply don't want you to have it.  My God! what sons offa beaches they are - I detest people like this with this type of mindset - I hate them with a passion!  I gonna have to find a way to yuck it out of their grimy little hands so I can laugh in their stupid faces!!

  Success is liking yourself, what you do and how you do it!

  Psalm 122:6
• CTNY

  

  New Haven, CT - Queens, NY
  United States
  Member #98,734
  October 13, 2010
  5,460 Posts
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  Jan 31, 2016, 1:21 pm

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  I think the odds are good as they are.

  I don't care to beat the house.

  Because you cant beat the house. Ever.

  I just want consistent wins.

  Consistent Wins  + Progressive Wagering = 

   

  These numbers games require the same discipline required

  when investing in the stock market.

  Watch your resistance.

  Watch your support and place your stops lol

  Jumping from strategy to

  strategy is a sure fire way to LOSE!!

  The goal is to approach the Pick 3 & Pick 4 game sensibly and systematically!! 

   I'm not like the guy who predicted the end of the world and nothing happened.
• Lildarryl

  

  South Carolina
  United States
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  May 31, 2014
  2,013 Posts
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  Jan 31, 2016, 1:25 pm

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  In response to CTNY

  Quote: Originally posted by CTNY on Jan 31, 2016

  I think the odds are good as they are.

  I don't care to beat the house.

  Because you cant beat the house. Ever.

  I just want consistent wins.

  Consistent Wins  + Progressive Wagering = 

   

  These numbers games require the same discipline required

  when investing in the stock market.

  Watch your resistance.

  Watch your support and place your stops lol

  Jumping from strategy to

  strategy is a sure fire way to LOSE!!

  Thank you for posting this.   I still can't believe folks jumping from system to strategy to system to strategy. Like they change their underwear.     

   

  Find one and improve it ......

  Turning digits into wins, one number at a time!
• CTNY

  

  New Haven, CT - Queens, NY
  United States
  Member #98,734
  October 13, 2010
  5,460 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 31, 2016, 3:07 pm

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  In response to Lildarryl

  Quote: Originally posted by Lildarryl on Jan 31, 2016

  Thank you for posting this.   I still can't believe folks jumping from system to strategy to system to strategy. Like they change their underwear.     

   

  Find one and improve it ......

  Right.

  Pick 3 and 4 is a very straight forward and basic game.

  Some complicate the game with puzzles, hills, valleys, pi, long division etc

  The goal is to approach the Pick 3 & Pick 4 game sensibly and systematically!! 

   I'm not like the guy who predicted the end of the world and nothing happened.