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Tackling Thoth...

38 replies. Last post 2 days ago by garyo1954.

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garyo1954's avatar - garyo
Dallas, Texas
United States
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Posted: November 17, 2016, 5:09 pm - IP Logged

So.......

I....uh.....redid the LMH chart in the Pick3 summary. Why?

Well, there's this post by jade about relating Pick3/4 to blackjack. In it there are a couple of interesting links. 

One, "Thoth's Distance indicator" where Tialuvslotto describes how she breaks the sets into very low (0 & 1), low (2-3-4), mid (5-6-7), and high (8 & 9). Reading her explanation put LMH on burn notice, all the code was replaced with VLMH. Found here:

Distance indicator thread

Impressive breakdown. You have the single letter sets (in blue) made up of 28 triples and doubles hit about 6-7% of the time. On the other end, (shade of purple mess) made up of 60 singles hitting 36% of the time. (Think about that for a moment: the same 60 singles hitting over a third of the time.)

The final set (pink) comprised of 132 combos (74 doubles, 58 singles) hits 57% of the time.

 

 

If you're in to playing the odds, this is good stuff.

Just in case my eyes are crossed from seeing 00s, VLLs, 88s, and MMH's, here's a chart to double check.

 

 

Now, back to tackling Thoth. Since all of his charts have disappeared, one obvious and important question I have not seen him answer is if his prognostications (Rule of 5 days) is based on his revised boxed combination principle.

That doesn't mean the principles can't be replicated but would make it easier.

For instance, he mentions most often you'll be making the decision between playing 0 or 1. But doing the set break, we find that 0,0 to 0,9 hits 14.13%, 1,1 to 1,8 hits 24.94%......together about the same as Tia's four purple sets hit.

2,1 to 2,7 hits 18.64% and 3,1 to 3,6 hits 14.12%, which begs the question did he mean between 0 and a real number?

Since 0,0 is all triples with 0,X and X,0 being all doubles, it could be he was saying the decision was between concentrating on singles or doubles.

Back to the dungeon.......

 

G

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

    Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
    Texas
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    Posted: November 18, 2016, 9:46 am - IP Logged

    Thanks for this post, Gary!  And thanks for reminding me of that old post -- time to get back to basics.

    Thoth is tough work, but always worthwhile.

    "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

    ~Robert A. Heinlein

      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
      Dallas, Texas
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      Posted: November 18, 2016, 3:37 pm - IP Logged

      Thanks for this post, Gary!  And thanks for reminding me of that old post -- time to get back to basics.

      Thoth is tough work, but always worthwhile.

      And Thank You for the mind stimulation....lol!

      Thoth is tough. He swam out in the deep water where most won't go, but want to know what's there.

      Years ago I couldn't appreciate what he was saying. Takes time and thought. 

      But now, I'm sure he left posts hanging due to the replies. He wanted to give it time to sink in. He wanted people to think. He left room for questions which weren't being asked. Frustrating to bring the dog a steak and him expect you to chew it up for him. 

      Like that one teacher back in jr high who said, "if you don't understand this, you're going to be lost when we get to the next part......", and we just snickered, he  had to experience that frustration a few times. 

      I could be wrong. That's just the feeling I get reading.

      Anyway, the dungeon awaits. Time to see if the steak is still as good as it looks.

       

      G

      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

        Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
        Zaperlopopotam
        Belgium
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        Posted: November 19, 2016, 7:50 am - IP Logged

        You didn't want them by two.

        with 0,X and X,0 being all doubles,

        Not straight.

        .
          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
          Dallas, Texas
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          Posted: November 19, 2016, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

          You didn't want them by two.

          with 0,X and X,0 being all doubles,

          Not straight.

          Nothing like trying to make sense of a comment and Google saying it can't be translated in 132 languages.

          From this we gather three things......

          1) You emptied the beer keg before responding

          2) Your keyboard is missing letters, or

          3) Formulating a complete thought is too time consuming?

          Fortunately, or unfortunately, I've found a major error, (or many minor ones), in the code which is less puzzling. 

           

          G

          My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

            Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
            Zaperlopopotam
            Belgium
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            Posted: November 19, 2016, 3:35 pm - IP Logged

            Nothing like trying to make sense of a comment and Google saying it can't be translated in 132 languages.

            From this we gather three things......

            1) You emptied the beer keg before responding

            2) Your keyboard is missing letters, or

            3) Formulating a complete thought is too time consuming?

            Fortunately, or unfortunately, I've found a major error, (or many minor ones), in the code which is less puzzling. 

             

            G

            1) Eat a Belgian waffle with chocolate.

            2) Eat Belgian fries with mayo(n)naise or your favourite Heinz Ketchup, or English vinegar

            3) Have a dark Belgian beer followed by a double mokka

            4) Read again your own to update yourself with yourself.

            5) Take a break before responding. Think first. Read slowly.

            .
              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
              Dallas, Texas
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              Posted: November 19, 2016, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

              There are three types people in the world.

              Those who rise in the morning hoping to challenge their brain.

              Those who rise hoping to amuse their brain.

              And those who rise hoping they find a brain.

              Please...

              If I'm ever trapped in an elevator with the third type, I promise to allow them last words before they commit suicide by drinking the poison in my pocket.

              My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                Dallas, Texas
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                Posted: November 19, 2016, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

                One conclusion:

                More data is essential.

                While it would seem 13,700 draws are a lot, when you break that down by 1000 combos, some triples for example, have hit less than 10 times. Not much of anything to be found there. 

                My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                  Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
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                  Posted: November 20, 2016, 8:37 am - IP Logged

                  Since the game is essentially the same everywhere, there should be no reason not to combine mid and eve and combine across states.  Plenty of data available.  Or, I believe Jade uses a RNG to simulate millions of draws.

                  "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

                  ~Robert A. Heinlein

                    Avatar
                    Krakow
                    Poland
                    Member #86302
                    February 2, 2010
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                    Posted: November 20, 2016, 10:13 am - IP Logged

                    There are three types people in the world.

                    Those who rise in the morning hoping to challenge their brain.

                    Those who rise hoping to amuse their brain.

                    And those who rise hoping they find a brain.

                    Please...

                    If I'm ever trapped in an elevator with the third type, I promise to allow them last words before they commit suicide by drinking the poison in my pocket.

                    Gary

                    I think Tialuvslotto is absolutely correct. Why not RNG generate say 150,000 draws or as many as you wish  then add on top pf them your real draws. Then delete say a couple of draws, run your analysis to check if and how it works.

                    Adam

                      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                      Dallas, Texas
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                      Posted: November 20, 2016, 5:59 pm - IP Logged

                      Gary

                      I think Tialuvslotto is absolutely correct. Why not RNG generate say 150,000 draws or as many as you wish  then add on top pf them your real draws. Then delete say a couple of draws, run your analysis to check if and how it works.

                      Adam

                      I'm convinced you guys have the right idea.

                      Ran 100,000 while I watched the COWBOYS BEAT BALTIMORE!!!!

                      Put those through the program and found errors. Dumb stuff like, not needing the Game$, Date$, etc.

                      Suspect we'll need to do several sets of 100,000 to verify.

                       

                       

                      HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!!!!!

                       

                      G

                      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                        Avatar
                        Krakow
                        Poland
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                        Posted: November 21, 2016, 3:27 am - IP Logged

                        I'm convinced you guys have the right idea.

                        Ran 100,000 while I watched the COWBOYS BEAT BALTIMORE!!!!

                        Put those through the program and found errors. Dumb stuff like, not needing the Game$, Date$, etc.

                        Suspect we'll need to do several sets of 100,000 to verify.

                         

                         

                        HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!!!!!

                         

                        G

                        Gary

                        I think you could generate say 4 or 5 databases each one of them with 100,000 RNG- generated draws with your real draws on top of each of them. That could give you a good kick start for analysis. That kind of joint analysis might give you an idea what kind of cross filtering gives the best results.

                        Adam

                          Avatar
                          bgonçalves
                          Brasil
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                          June 9, 2010
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                          Posted: November 21, 2016, 10:08 am - IP Logged

                          Hello, gary get pick4 example?

                            Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
                            Zaperlopopotam
                            Belgium
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                            Posted: November 21, 2016, 3:30 pm - IP Logged

                            One conclusion:

                            More data is essential.

                            While it would seem 13,700 draws are a lot, when you break that down by 1000 combos, some triples for example, have hit less than 10 times. Not much of anything to be found there. 

                            Gary

                            Make a billion random drawings. That might do it.

                            Bugs Bunny

                            .
                              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                              Dallas, Texas
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                              Posted: November 21, 2016, 9:52 pm - IP Logged

                              Pick 4 may be down the road, if at all. Need to modify the program to get Pick 4 data before anything.

                              Too much to do with Pick 3 to start thinking about any of that.

                              My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"