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Seeing patterns where none exist

Topic closed. 93 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Rick G.

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Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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Posted: July 12, 2003, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

In flipping coins, which is most likely to occur?

HHHHHHHTTT OR HTHHTHTTTH?


Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

    Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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    Posted: July 12, 2003, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

    I'll answer the question now, I'm about to go to bed, (I hope, my daughter has a bad case of poision ivy, she'll be up all night scratching).

    The answer is: It depends on how you look at it. If you treat it as sets, then HTHHTHTTTH is more likely. If you treat it as individual flips, both are equally likely. It would be 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 for both examples.


    Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

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      Posted: July 12, 2003, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

      i wonder if the balls

      ... the lottery never fails to surprise!
        Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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        Posted: July 12, 2003, 8:25 pm - IP Logged

        I don't see how. A bowling ball and a feather falls at the same rate in a vacuum. Weight(at least weight as close as the difference of paint) isn't a factor in that type of lottery machine.


        Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
          FEMA Region V Camp #21
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          Posted: July 13, 2003, 11:33 am - IP Logged

          Good thread here folks...

          I'm not a probability or statistics expert, but I've studied games of chance all my life.

          In a coin toss you have a 50/50 chance each toss.  If one tosses heads six times in a row then tails is 3 times overdue.  At some point, in n number of future  tosses the tails will have to make up those three losses due to the laws of random numbers.  If one were to toss coins after the 6th toss and start counting at that point they would toss the coins n number of draws until the tails came up 3 more times more than heads during that period.  Let's say it took 100 more flips to get that three extra tails, then your tails would have come in 51.5% of the time and your heads would have come in 48.5% of the time, so there is a guaranteed advantage regardless of the time frame...that is inconsequential...the point here is a mandated advantage at some unknown point in the future.

          Back to the example of 6 straight heads in a row, if one uses the pattern instead of going against it, and bet heads on the 7th toss.  You still have a 50/50 chance of hitting it.  If tails were to come up, then he would abandon the trend and play until 2 more tails came up (your first of three due tails just came up) for n amount of drawings.  Again if it takes 100 drawings to get your tails a 2 occurence advantage, you will have won 51% of the time and lost 49% of the time...again an advantage/profit...minimal, but guaranteed after n number of draws.

          OK, so now let's say the same conditions occur after the 6th coin toss...6 heads, no tails.  Let's say you bet the trend of heads until it stops, for example, on the 11th toss a tails finally comes up.  The tails are now at a disadvantage of 4 (since one just came up). Now you start betting tails for n number of times until 4 more tails come up than heads.  Again, let's say it takes 100 more tosses to happen after the 11th toss.  You will have won 52% and lost 48% of the time, but the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th tosses you won so now you have 8 winning tosses out of 105 tosses...approximately a 6.7% advantage/profit.

          Sure beats CD's and it might not take 5 years to happen!

           

          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


            Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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            Posted: July 13, 2003, 11:54 am - IP Logged

            The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken notion that the odds for something with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending upon recent occurrences. In other words, tails can't be 3 times overdue. Type "Gambler's Fallacy" in google and you will see many examples of this.


            Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

              WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
              Stone Mountain*Georgia
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              Posted: July 13, 2003, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

              Thomas a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. You are mixing apples and oranges.

               The one thing you don't seem to understand is the word EVENT.  In the world of probabiltiy an dvent can be one time or it can be many times within the dvent.

               In a one Coin Toss dvent the odds are 50/50 ofcourse, and the probability is the same.

               In a Two coin toss dvent the odds are 50/50 .........., and the probability changes based on the results of first toss.

               In a Ten coin toss dvent the odds are 50/50 ..........., and the probability based on a mixed result is one thing but the probability  based on 9 consecutive heads making it to 10 are completely different.  So, even within the multi-stage dvent one can arrive at wide differences of probability. Based on the construction of the dvent question and the number of steps within.      

               The probability of getting one tail some where within a 10 toss dvent is different than getting that tail on the 10th. toss. In other words (hhhh t hhhhh ) is not as rare as (hhhhhhhhh t) and the probabilities are completly different percentages of one. Although both dvents contain just one tail.

               The word Event is the cause of much misunderstanding on this subject.

               Promethus said his strategy was based on more than one draw or EVENT. The reason is obvious. He is after the advantage that only the multi-stage dvent can offer.

               
              People cannot continue to insist or impose one time dvent strategy on multi-stage dvents. If you do then you will misunderstand  and misuse valid principles such as the "Gamblers Fallacy" and "The Maturity of Chances" out of context. 

                   WIN  d

                 "There is a big difference between lightning and lightning bug."

                Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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                Posted: July 13, 2003, 2:24 pm - IP Logged

                Thomas,

                I think you failed to see my point.  Where n is an unknown number of occurrences, random occurrences have to equal out based on the laws of randomness.  It might take a million occurrences for it to happen, but it will happen.  This is the heart of the concept of randomness and the rule of nature in general.  For every action there is an opposite but equal reaction.  You cannot refute this basic concept of our universe.  This concept has ruled the universe for 12+ billion years.

                A simple example in point.  Check out any lottery drawing's number history for any length of time you choose and look at the bar graph of digit-hit occurrences.  Now double your history, then double your history again, ad infinitum, and the bar graph becomes straighter proportionate to the increased number of draws chosen.  This is fact.  I challenge anyone to look at a lottery's last 50 draw history and compare it to a lottery's last 1000 draw history and convince me that a bar graph's discrepancies are greater with the 1000 draw history than the 50 draw history.  In fact, to use your analogy, I will kiss anyone's a** who can show me such a phenomen in a random number dvent.  It just ain't gonna happen.

                However, I do agree with you (and I think all participants of this disussion agree with you also) that we can't predict today's occurence or that this occurrence will happen in the next 10, 20, 50 1000 dvents but it will happen.

                Random dvents happen in fits and spurts.  Otherwise when we are flipping our coin it would be H-T-H-T-H-T-H-T-H-T ad infinitum ...that's as unlikely as hitting the big 130 million to 1 odds jackpot.  So my point here is to take advantage of the current trend and then jump on the deficit in random number predicting; therefore random dvents are, albeit infinitesimally, predictable.

                I love it when people say that more people win with quick picks than chosen numbers.  Well, that's because more people play quick picks than chosen numbers.  To my knowledge no study has been done as to the profitability of either approach, but nevertheless you can't argue with the laws of the universe and the laws of randomness as we know them and that have been proven.

                Every dvent in life is random, but if you stay out of the street, there is a better chance you won't get hit by a car.  That's why insurance companies are in business...you are more likely to die at 50 than you are at 20.  They make a good profit using "probability" statistics as their guidelines and I think the lottery player has a similar advantage.

                Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                  Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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                  Posted: July 13, 2003, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

                  Rick G ....I already tried the graph approach on another forum ...the systems section. That was the last time it was brought up. Thomas was to.... "do some research and get back to me" but I never got a reaction to the graph. This was in June so ...... Here it is again. 

                  Thomas Covenant, tell us about "white gold".Then,I would be curious about your observations on this results chart. 

                  This is a frequency chart for Georgia. It is a beautiful thing.This is an actual results breakdown over almost three years. If you will total the hit rate from left to right,and compare that to the Expected hit rate on the left side of the chart you might have a surprise. If you are a Probability atheist, then you might have to explain the results. No, these digits don't have memory, but year after year they act in a very predictable way. What ever you call these results, they happen like this. This is only part of what a system player knows will happen,year after year, every year. "You can bet on it". Because it is PREDICTABLE.  Probability is when math meets COMMON SENSE. You can bet on that too, even if you can't explain these results.       

                  Chart - Hit Frequency and Rank after 1000 draws Georgia. 







                  Rank27410281695


                  Expected
                  Hit Times
                  300
                   


                  315
                   


                  297
                   


                  312
                   


                  276
                   


                  315
                   


                  284
                   


                  318
                   


                  299
                   


                  282
                   


                  302
                   
                  Numbers0123456789


                  _________________


                    PROMETHEUS       

                    Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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                    Posted: July 13, 2003, 2:45 pm - IP Logged

                    Here is another part of that Systems post in June.....



                    Fig. #1


                     Sure. The topic on this post was about Pick-3. It was a system posted to help predict the possible outcomes of the next draw, based on "one thing". The chart above contains all 10 of the digits in the pick-3 game and list those digits at the bottom of the chart. The number 300 to the left of the chart is static, and was the Expected or Predicted total of hits that would come in the future. Based on previous data.


                     The numbers at the top of the chart list the rank and position of each individual digits performance during this 1000 draws. The larger numbers under these are the actual hit rates per digit.


                    The results of this "Prediction chart"....so to speak...do not come as a surprise to the systems player. He bets on it. We systems players observe many micro versions of these dvents everyday,and use them to our advantage. In your quest for truth, perhaps this Macro example above will help absorb what the majority of this Lottery Forum....study and believe. We bet on it ! We bet on this and hundreds of micro versions of it everyday.


                     As for previous data not having anything to do with future data. Well, give me the previous observed data on the length and width of your kitchen.......and I will give you a "PREDICTION" on the Area of that room.


                     Here's another prediction based on previous data. Using the green and yellow shapes above. We can predict the pattern of your kitchen floor. With or without the green shapes. If we compress the shapes together in sufficent number we can predict the MAJORITY pattern this will make in the future. We have never done this with these shapes before, but some intuitive instinct is giving me an exact picture of what the result will be. LOL


                     Hope this helps !



                    _________________
                      PROMETHEUS       

                      PROMETHEUS       

                      Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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                      Posted: July 13, 2003, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

                      Rick, I agree with what you say, up to a point. Trends and patterns are seen in hindsight. No matter what trend you see in hindsight, you can't predict the very next drawing. You can't predict a coin toss, with only two possible outcomes.(Well, there's actually 4 outcomes) You surely can't predict a lottery draw.


                      Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

                        Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                        FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                        Posted: July 13, 2003, 2:57 pm - IP Logged

                        Thanks for the chart Prometheus.  Now if one were to look at this chart they'd see that number 6 came in more often than the other digits. Would it be wise to play the number 6 digit today?  I don't know...I would then look at where the 18 hits over expected norm came from.  Did it come recently or 500 hits ago?.  Is that surplus of 18 hits becoming greater as time goes by or smaller?  Chances are that 1000 draws from now that digit 6 will have an 18 occurrence deficit compared to the norm.  At some point, let's say eternity, all digits will have been picked almost the same number of times.

                        Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
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                          Posted: July 13, 2003, 3:06 pm - IP Logged

                          Thomas,

                          That is where I agree with you 100%.  No one can predict a single dvent unless you are a bona fide psychic and I've yet to see one in my lifetime...where hits outnumber misses.

                          But you have brought a great point up for discussion, one of the best I've seen on these forums and you have created a lot of interest and got our minds working.  You've had me pondering this all afternoon and I thank you for bringing it up.  No one is right or wrong here in the short run of dvents.  In the long run of dvents we might disagree, but that's what life is all about and it sure would be boring otherwise.

                          Nothing like a good mental caffeine pill!

                          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                            Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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                            Posted: July 13, 2003, 4:37 pm - IP Logged

                            Thomas, here is a real world question that might really shine some light on the subject. Do you have access to your states pick 3 database? Perhaps if we could point to some actual examples it would help. Are you in S.C. ? Then we will be on the same page. 

                              PROMETHEUS       

                              Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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                              Posted: July 13, 2003, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

                              I'm not saying you can't find patterns within past draws. I'm saying you can use past draws to predict future drawings.


                              Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers