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Seeing patterns where none exist

Topic closed. 93 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Rick G.

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Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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Posted: July 13, 2003, 4:59 pm - IP Logged

Pick 3, SC June 2, 3rd digit even for the eve drawing for six draws. 2nd draw even 1/4, 3rd draw even 1/8, 4th draw even 1/16, 5th draw even 1/32, 6th draw even 1/64. So on the 5th draw the chances of an odd number was 97%, but the 6th draw was even. We can both find examples where probability works or doesn't work, so what's the point.


Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

    Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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    Posted: July 13, 2003, 5:00 pm - IP Logged

    I know........I got that part ad nauseum . Just a thought. Never mind.

     Thought it might be interesting for us to change venue. Sometimes a change of scenery can be refreshing and stimulate a more ....

    ........ahh.....never mind.  Lots of luck!

     

      PROMETHEUS       

      Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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      Posted: July 13, 2003, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

      And may the laws of probabilit


      Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers


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        Posted: July 13, 2003, 5:23 pm - IP Logged

        Wow that was pretty heavy stuff!!!

          Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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          Posted: July 13, 2003, 5:29 pm - IP Logged

          One point is this.........one point. If you can find an example of 9 or 10 anything in a row in your draw history......and you start to bet the other way.........I'll kiss your ass ....as you said to me........if your not closer to the end than the beginning of that pattern. Find one.  High Low...odd even....what ever and where ever there is a 50/50 group.  We will start to bet on number 7.....8.....or 9 .....and if we don't hit the other group running out the back door ..... we might not hit the exact one .........but we will be shooting into the correct half of the pool. Ninety-per cent of the next day. 

           Tell me how many 7 anythings you count in a year....how many 8 anythings..........how many 9 anythings?  And if you hold your fire until you see these.......and start shooting 1, 2, or 3 days before they end......

           You see 6 or 7 anythings in a row .........then you tell me how long they continued ..........hundreds cause they are random? No . Thirty a year. No  If you find more than one anything that went 10 in a row during the year .....you need to take out a loan on your boat and bet the other way.  These .......are one example of how you increase your chances. Now.......before you say ......well that does not give you the exact number...... Stay on subject and acknowledge that point first.  Then I'll tell you a second thing. If your Lucky.       

                You find 8 or 9 or 10 anythings in a row ....and tell me how many and how often they go 8 or 9 or 10 draws more....if its random.........should be thousands of 9's and 10's in there. When you spot these...........YOU ARE ALWAYS CLOSER TO THE END THAN THE BEGINNING....AND BY DAMN ...YOU CAN BET ON THAT....AND THATS .........ONE THING! 

           And another thing your math is wrong .......You don't hit 90% probability after only 4 or 5 draws. 

            PROMETHEUS       

            Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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            Posted: July 13, 2003, 5:53 pm - IP Logged

            I am treating the odd and even numbers as coin flips. 1st draw is even, 1/2 odds, 2nd draw even, 1/2x1/2 or 1/4,3rd draw even 1/8, 4th draw 1/32. Isn't this correct?


            Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
              FEMA Region V Camp #21
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              Posted: July 13, 2003, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

              I don't care if you toss a coin 1,000,000 times and it comes up heads each and every time, you will be profitable in betting tails the next 1,000,000 tosses.  This is fact and I can't continue this discussion any further unless you recognize this, Thomas.  Because at that point you are not understanding randomness and any further discussion would be useless because it defies logic.  But I respect your opinion and like I said before you have every right to it.

              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                Bryan's avatar - Lottery-002.jpg
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                Posted: July 13, 2003, 6:11 pm - IP Logged
                Quote: O
                  Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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                  Posted: July 13, 2003, 6:19 pm - IP Logged

                  Oh, sorry Rick, now I understand what you are saying. Ok, using a computer program I will now flip a coin 100,000 times.50124 heads, 49876 tails. I did it 2 million times. It always came up pretty much even. Flipping 100 flips at a time the heads and tails are a little further apart. At one point I got 61 heads and 39 tails. The more you flip, the more even it gets. If this is what you are saying, I agree.


                  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

                    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                    Posted: July 13, 2003, 6:44 pm - IP Logged

                    Prometheus said that the probability of tossing 30 Heads in a row was over 3 Billion to one.

                      According to T.C. if he showed up on the 29th. toss he would buy a quick- pick, and have just a good a chance as anyone. Most of the people on this forum have a real hard time understanding that.

                     Yes, the odds on the 29th toss are still Fifty- percent, and the odds are the same a million tosses from now, still fifty percent but that 30th toss is no fifty-per cent proposition bet. The chances are, shall we say:          Is marginal too strong a word? 

                      Thomas Covenant's avatar - money
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                      Posted: July 13, 2003, 6:52 pm - IP Logged

                      To be honest, If I saw 29 heads in a row, I would bet heads again. I would be thinking that maybe it's not random.


                      Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers

                        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                        Posted: July 13, 2003, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

                        I think Prometheus must have the patience of Job !  He must have cared more than most.

                          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                          FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                          Posted: July 13, 2003, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

                          Thomas, that was exactly what I was getting at, and I agree with you that if a coin toss came up heads 29 times in a row, you bet I'd bet heads on the 30th toss.  Not until the equilibrium started changing would I change my bet and then I'd stick with the equilibrium change until  the scales were balanced, so to speak.  As I mentioned before, it might be a very minute advantage for the player but it is an advantage and in this crazy game you're losing 50% of your money to the state before you even toss the coin so it's even more difficult to gain an advantage as opposed to, let's say blackjack, roulette or horse racing (which is the highest disadvantage of the three at about 18% going to the house).

                          Thanks again for the stimulating discussion.

                          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


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                            Posted: July 13, 2003, 9:02 pm - IP Logged

                            As Gail Howard put it, "The trend is your friend".

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                              Posted: July 14, 2003, 7:32 am - IP Logged
                              Quote: O

                              *Andrew*

                              WINHunter - Freeware Lottery Number Predicting software for the 21st century. NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART.

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