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If you can pick one number you can win P3

Topic closed. 64 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Clipper.

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Bluegrass's avatar - nw archer.jpg
Killer's Cove
United States
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December 17, 2001
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Posted: May 4, 2004, 1:08 am - IP Logged

 

Did the same thing for Georgia, looks pretty close.




 


 


Georgia


 


 


 


 


Positions


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


1


2


3


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


9.94%


9.31%


9.93%


 


 


 


 


 




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    Posted: May 4, 2004, 1:14 am - IP Logged

     Wow! Thanks Bob.

      Bluegrass's avatar - nw archer.jpg
      Killer's Cove
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      Posted: May 4, 2004, 1:28 am - IP Logged

       

      For Georgia only, The first digit repeats in the first position 9.94 %, it has also repeated in the second position a total of 8.86 %, the first digit has repeated in the third position a total of 7.69 %, for a total repeat percentage of 26.48 %. Surprised me !

      I'll check out the other positions later this afternoon if time permits.

      Cheers !

      Bob

        Berley's avatar - animal bear.jpg
        ROGERS, AR.
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        Posted: May 4, 2004, 3:01 am - IP Logged





        MISSOURI HAS HAD 4784 DRAWS


        4784


        #


        HITS IN NO. 1 POSITION




        0


        55


        1.15%




        1


        52


        1.09%




        2


        51


        1.07%




        3


        54


        1.13%




        4


        51


        1.07%




        5


        45


        0.94%




        6


        48


        1.00%




        7


        32


        0.67%




        8


        49


        1.02%




        9


        52


        1.09%





        489


        10.22%

        GOOD LUCK.

        __________
        Berley

          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
          Dump Water Florida
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          Posted: May 4, 2004, 3:34 am - IP Logged
          Quote: Originally posted by Clipper on May 03, 2004


          PS.....besides....I told you earlier I dont have a 1 digit system so it leaves me out.    This discussion was about a 1 digit system and I asked BobP if he had heard about Steve Player's new system and just happened to mention my system and how close I was.  No discussion initiated.



          I received Steve's new system advertisement too.  I find it hard to believe a static system can win often enough to play at a profit over time and note he makes no claims of winning, only providing examples of what you would collect if it did win.  I checked a year and a half worth of Florida draw history for the three numbers his example gave 12 pure numbers for, only a hand full of times those three came up and only one win from the handful which I guess made a profit for a handful times $12.  One really has to wonder whether there is really anything behind it or just a fancy lucky number book like the ones you can buy for a buck at the newspaper stand.

          I can see making such a system based on historic followers, would look really good compared against the draw history when back tested, can't say how it would do in future draws.  BobP

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            Texas
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            Posted: May 4, 2004, 10:31 am - IP Logged

            Thanks Bluegrass = saves me from having to go back and look at my database lol  Im sure yours is more complete the mine right now because I dont have to keep an extensive database to work my system.

            Is interesting indeed to see the % of how often a specific position might repeat itself.  While a digit repeats in same position collectivelyl for all 3 position 42.3% of the time we can now say that anyone specific position does not repeat itself more then 10% of the time.

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              Posted: May 4, 2004, 10:45 am - IP Logged
              Clipper, thanks for the effort but something just doesn't seem right.  The question was about the first position and how often it repeats the next day. If 126 hits on Monday then what are the odds the same number will repeat in the first position  on Tuesday as the same number 1 45  etc.? 

               I had indicated before in the earlier post that it seemed like it might do this about 10% of the time or rather not come back this way 90% of the time. This would allow us to negate at least one of the 10 digit choices for the next day and be right approx. 90% of the time and increase our chances of a straight hit . 

               Clipper, are you  saying that it does come back in first position more than that? We are talking about First position only right?  My guess would be that using a 7 day a week game that the first digit should not return on top of itself more than 10% of the time. Average. That's because there is just a 1 in 10 chance for any single digit to appear in that 1st. position at any time anyway we cut it. Right? 



              _________________
              Dr P





              Yes of course there's a 1 in 10 chance of a digit repeating in the same position. You could also say that there's a 1 in 100 chance that any digit will be drawn in a particular positin and repeat. Let's say that the #3 is drawn in the first positon. The chances of it repeating remains 1 in 10. Let's say that three hasn't been drawn yet and i anticipated it to be drawn twice in a row in the same position. Now the chances of that happening would be 1 in 100. This is all basic math. You don't need to analyze previous drawing to get that answer, however it is a good idea to see the average patterns, and also to see if there's anything out of the norm occurring.
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                Texas
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                Posted: May 4, 2004, 11:11 am - IP Logged

                Here is some additional input though about repeat as it pertains to Texas.  I looked at the 211 instances in my database where there had been a repeat digit and looked at the "sequences" of happenings.  In otherwords, how long a sequence did a repeat happen regardless of "where" it repeated.

                There was 1 instance of a run of 10 games for repeat with the remainer of the sequences going 6-5-4-3-2-1.  Of course the number of 6 sequence was smaller then 5, 5 smaller then 4 with the higher repeat sequences being between 3-2 & 1.

                Of the 3-2-1 sequence runs there were 34 instances where a digit repeated from prior game and the sequence ended.  Of these 34 instances, 17 (50%) of the time when the digit repeated it did so in the same position.    Such happening during a 2-3 sequence run was considerably less...like 3 times out of 16 for 2 sequence and even less for 3 sequence run out of slightly less number of runs.


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                  Posted: May 4, 2004, 12:45 pm - IP Logged
                  Quote: Originally posted by QWEST46 on May 04, 2004


                  _________________






                  Yes of course there's a 1 in 10 chance of a digit repeating in the same position. You could also say that there's a 1 in 100 chance that any digit will be drawn in a particular posting and repeat. Let's say that the #3 is drawn in the first position. The chances of it repeating remains 1 in 10. Let's say that three hasn't been drawn yet and i anticipated it to be drawn twice in a row in the same position. Now the chances of that happening would be 1 in 100. This is all basic math. You don't need to analyze previous drawing to get that answer, however it is a good idea to see the average patterns, and also to see if there's anything out of the norm occurring.



                   Quest, thanks for the input. When this thread first began it was about how to pick that Magic"one number"using the 300 positional digits or the 271 representations. Either way, it seemed to be more about how to break these down to fewer play choices. That part of the thread seemed to die out and left the subject hanging out there. This gave a lot of people the impression that we were left with only those 271 or 300 choices. Everyone seemed to be saying that they knew of the system years ago and it wasn't worth anything and had written it off as "not worth it."

                   I think what Prometheus was attempting to do was point out that although it was also a bad system with only expected win of only 10%, that it was sadly one of the best (known) systems going up till now. He was talking about free open systems that serious players already knew about. I also thought he was attempting to show that most "known systems" can't do much better and was challenging anyone who wanted to help or add anything to jump in. 

                   I did jump in, with what I think is a way to cut down the 300 or 271 choices by at least 1 third over 90% of the time with some "simple basic math."which bluegrass was kind enough to confirm with real world data. This is what I think Prometheus was leading up to, ways to improve on that 10% hit rate. As far as known, open, published systems go, I do not think there is a better system either. Anyway, that's my contribution. That's about a 30% improvement to the way it was left hanging out there. Now, it's a 13%expected hit rate system, 90% of the time. Anyone got one better?

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                    Texas
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                    Posted: May 4, 2004, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

                    Dr Pepper = I break it down by going with 1 digit/1 position.  Not only do you pick the "magical number" you pick the position it will play in. 


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                      Posted: May 4, 2004, 4:15 pm - IP Logged

                      Quest46,

                       I re-read your post and you lost me after you agreed that a digit repeating on top of itself had a 1 in 10 chance of hitting in that same position. That's correct and obvious and confirmed with real world data. But- - - -  then you said, Quote: "You could also say that there's a 1 in 100 chance that any digit will be drawn in a particular posting and repeat." Would you show how this changed from 1 in 10 to the 1 in 100  using some good old basic math to explain. Thanks

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                        Posted: May 5, 2004, 1:43 am - IP Logged

                        Quest46,

                         I re-read your post and you lost me after you agreed that a digit repeating on top of itself had a 1 in 10 chance of hitting in that same position. That's correct and obvious and confirmed with real world data. But- - - -  then you said, Quote: "You could also say that there's a 1 in 100 chance that any digit will be drawn in a particular posting and repeat." Would you show how this changed from 1 in 10 to the 1 in 100  using some good old basic math to explain. Thanks







                        Dr. Pepper, Lets say that i play pick three lottery. I choose to play 1 digit exact (some states have 1 digit exact & 2 digit exact). Well anyways i decide to bet on #4 for two days in a row. Now There's a 1 in 100 chance that that digit will be drawn for those 2 days (any particular digit). Now lets say that today #4 was drawn. This would not make the chances of 4 being drawn 1 in 100 tomorrow. The chances of it being drawn tomorrow is still 1 in 10 and always will be. But if you were to say that  4 were to be drawn tomorrow plus the day after that, then the chances of that would be 1 in 100. That's all there is to it. Like i was saying, basic math. All gamblers should know this basic stuff. I'm sure that not everyone here is a gambler. I mean, i wouldn't consider anyone who  just throws out a few bucks on the lottery a gambler. Gamblers are those that expect to win, and when they don't, they find ways to win. Ask anyone about this.

                        Basically, in the above example, I'm not saying that if the #4 came out today then the chances of it being drawn tomorrow is 1 in 100, it's 1 in ten and will always be 1 in 10. To say that it will come out on two given days, there is a 1 in 100 chance.

                        Come on, basic math. Coin toss example that everyone (gambler) should know. Head=1 in 2, tails=1 in 2.  ie:

                        What are the chances of heads landing? >DUH! 1 in 2.

                        What are the chances of heads landing twice in a row.  (the math, basic)  1/2x1/2=1/4 ONE IN FOUR.

                        what are the chances of heads landing three times in a row?  1/2x1/2x1/2=1/4= 1 in Eight.

                        Now if heads were to land two times in a row, the chances of it landing on the next toss is still 1/2 (not 1/8).  The chances of heads landing three times in a row is the 1 in 8 chance.

                        Do u understand now Dr. Pepper?

                         

                          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
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                          Posted: May 5, 2004, 2:12 am - IP Logged

                          If there are 1,000 Pick-3 numbers consisting of three digits each, doesn't that mean there are 3,000 digits in the full set of 1,000 numbers? 


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                            Posted: May 5, 2004, 11:17 am - IP Logged

                             Thanks for jumping in Bobp.  Really need the help here. I had no idea where to begin with this and questioned the effort it might involve. 

                             Well, perhaps the attempt might help some other folks at the same time, so any help you could offer would be appreciated. Anything I were to say at this point would sound a little condescending, or too instructive to be of value, and that's not the impression someone wants to give. No one wants to discourage anyone from trying to participate, especially someone who has at least taken the time to master basic probability theory on equally like dvents, (good work) however, sadly misapplied in this case. 

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                              Posted: May 5, 2004, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                              Yes bob, there r 3 thousand digits.