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For more dynamic direction, I incorporated the last draw (with a weight of 1) into the composite pick.... only one number changed. I will play that line for tomorrow and see how it goes.... I will also test against the graphs, but won't incorporate that until I can figure how.
match6 is doing better than PB for now, matched 2 tonight... + 2 on the QP lines for a free ticket for tuesday!
in the white balls with my system, the last 6 draws, of the 30 white balls picked, only 5 were 10 or more off... 15 were within 4, and of those, 4 were off by one. what does it all mean? I don't know...
my average is 6 away frm the right numbers (actually 5.7)
powerball however is not doing as well... I miss the PB by an average of 13 (13.3)
My charts may help... before, I was left with a blank row to guess the number... now I could use the generated pick as a possible starting ground for some "fine tuning"...
White balls were in the right decade 17 of 30 times (in 6 draws), and within one decade 11 times meaning I only missed by 2 decades on 2 of 30 numbers... that's better than I was doing with no starting point.
I will need to update and dust off my visual graphs by position... only this time, putting the pick in the top row and seeing how it gels with past draw trends... if a pattern exists, fine tune, if not, leave it alone.... sounds like a plan.
that incorporates announcers, and to a degree, frequency... positional frequency at least.
Does it need to be THAT complex?... good thing I like excel...
Well, no dice yet again... still, not far off but no $$$
I have discovered an error in my whole process... I didn't add on the second level of error correction mask... it changed the results dramatically (not enough to win, but alot closer)
I will be ready for wednesday!
I am beginning to think I need to add 3 more things but have NO idea how to implement them into this system...
1. Frequency of all the balls
2. accounting for announcer numbers (or ranges)
3. spotting repeat numbers and incorporating them....
I have zero ieas on how to implement any of the above into the current system of weighted averages... or where to put them in the normula heirarchy... right now every component in the pick process has a reason for being there... 7 of 8 components matched 1 or 2 numbers by themselves, I don't play component picks however, just the resultant composite pick.
it is amazing how many components have had 8% to 10% accuracy in predicitions in certain positions... most are 5% or even less, and the powerball is even worse. picks keep on appearing in the statistical "mush" area of 21 to 36 for the PB, a result of smoothing and averages.
for wednesday, it calls for a PB of 25.... I will stick with that but it just doesn't "feel" right, an 8 as PB has historically been followed by a number in the teens or the 30's... but I will hold the course.... 1 pick done...
Salvaging this from another post... feel free to comment...
I have taken the full history stats and combined them into an auto-ranging weighted matrix resulting in just ONE pick per draw for 2 different jackpot games... Haven't hit much yet (a few $2 and $4 on the match6 so far, thanks to the 2 free QP's and a number or 2 from my line) but I finally did it... the pick changes every draw... follows the short term trends and is still rooted in the full draw history for it's root "profile"... and with excel it's all automatic ;-). While still no big bucks ,my picks are closer than when I was playing 5 and ten tickets per draw... Until I can find something new from calculus to apply, I will stick with this new "one shot" system for the forseeable future...
The math is sketchy, because it incorporates weighted averages, and backtesting only had a dozen $7 winners and 1 $100 hit, but based on all the work I have done looking for the "magic normulae" only to end up disappointed, I can play only one line per game knowing that I gave it my best shot...
the whole auto-ranging weighed average idea came from the study of neurons in artificial neural networks, with a component I added that gives more weight to the better pernorming numbers (using a simple match count as a weight multiplier). My "system" has an open architecture, allowing easy addition, removal or editing of individual components... right now I have 8...
Long Term Components...
MODE (full history) Provides best pernorming numbers
MEDIAN (full History) Provides a range
AVERAGE (Full History) smooths spikes
FORECAST (Full History) a "guess" component
Short Term Trend Components...
MODE (last 10 draws or less) provides recent "hot" numbers
MEDIAN (last 3 draws) short term ranging
AVERAGE (last 3 draws) another smoothing component
FORECAST (last 3 draws) a "wildcard" to shake things up, sometimes calls for negative numbers, but thanks to excel's ABSolute value function, it is now practical....
for each of the above components, a mode-based error correction mask was developed to maximize hits by position... this mask is applied and again checked against history to test and again mode-optimized by position...the resultant stat+error correction mask becomes one component (there are the above 8). A count of matches in the processed pick versus the actual draw numbers for the entire history is there to provide a hit count, this becomes the weight matrix... a component that has matched 19 hits in 179 draws gets a higher weight than a component thatonly matched 10, yet neither is discounted.
once they are all together, they are averaged by using the pick number x weight, this is done for each position to end up with one pick, which is then rounded to zero decimal places (instead of using INT wich discounts fractional components).
here's a simplified math example of the system in action using 2 components...
A. MODE of first position over full history = 2, EC mask = -1, comp number = 1
B. AVERAGE of last 3 draws = 9 Error correction mask = -2, composite number = 7
A has matched 17 of 179 draws, weight component (Awc) is 17
B has matched 12 of 179 draws, weight component (Bwc) is 12
normula = ((A*Awc)+(B*Bwc))/(Awc+Bwc)
result is 3.48, which rounds to 3 for your first position pick...
|
6/12/2004 |
176 |
2 |
14 |
35 |
41 |
45 |
31 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
-3 |
|
6/16/2004 |
177 |
2 |
15 |
36 |
42 |
46 |
32 |
14 |
3 |
-10 |
-3 |
2 |
-10 |
|
6/19/2004 |
178 |
6 |
17 |
30 |
38 |
47 |
27 |
-4 |
-8 |
6 |
-1 |
1 |
-11 |
the results of testing so far... the first set is the pick, the second set is the difference from the winning numbers... right now the system is a double-filtered composite of 8 stats (4 long term and 4 short term)... error correction masks have been applied at each phase, backtesting is unimpressive so far, a few match 3/5 and scattered PB only hits... pick for 6/16 is too close to the 6/12 pick, so I shortened the short term to only 10 or less draws back... I may have to either optimize OR make them 5 or less (will work for all but MODE).
from match 6...
|
3 |
10 |
19 |
25 |
37 |
47 |
|
3 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
H |
-2 |
|
4 |
9 |
18 |
27 |
37 |
45 |
|
6 |
3 |
14 |
12 |
5 |
4 |
|
5 |
9 |
20 |
28 |
38 |
46 |
|
3 |
5 |
3 |
-4 |
-13 |
-11 |
numbers are too close together in the picks... short term definitely needs to be shortened...
for tuesday/wednesday, I will reduce the short term to the last 3 draws where possible, maybe Guru is onto something...
My one pick system is an ever evolving nightmare of calculations and continuity challenges... there are now 3 worksheets in one excel workbook feeeding the final pick.
The number is an averaged composite of 10 individual picks (Short term and Long term).... today I conquered the pesky backtest normulae only to be unimpressed with the results... I have generated error corrections like mad, don't know what stage to apply them... I am currently running 2 backtest scenarios side by side to see the results and compare hits...
As expected, it is pulling in more positional hits than any one of the component picks that comprise it, BUT as feared they are not lining up on the same line for a prize win... Oh well, it IS just one pick per draw finally...
I can't help but wonder as I conjure up new error correction masks and refine and optimize the components... Is this like a radio signal? Is there some "frequency" component I should add to the error correction to synchronize individual lines for more hits? or would that just be dangerous hindsight manipulation? Time will tell, but backtest results are not as robust as I thought... could be the wrong stats, or the wrong weighting scheme... maybe error correction needs to be applied at every stage... I can do that and will try that, but it IS a time consuming affair that I need a break from for the rest of the day... I have until wednesday to get one good pick. I already have one for Match6. M6 uses the SAME EXACT normulas, yet the golden pick for match6 is matching 1 or 2 consistently...
one good thing about the whole system is the accurate ranging by decade... alot closer than the individual stat picks...
spent a few hours completely redesigning my powerball and match6 sheets....
issue 1. Replacing the INT function with ROUND for more accuracy.
for example =INT(MEDIAN(C$2:C175)) becomes =ROUND((MEDIAN(C$2:C175)),0) in this way a result of 27.7 becomes 28 rather than 27. I did this to my entire set of spreadsheets...
issue 2. Short Term trend data... copied the entire sort and draw stat pages and made new ones looking back from 3 to 11 draws rather than at the whole history
issue 3. combining Long Term and Short Term and determining weights... done by best pernormance over a total of the draw history... do better, get a higher weight.
the big tests will happen tuesday for match 6 and wednesday for powerball. one line for each draw... if this works out well, I will have reduced my regular lottery budget to $8 per week (2 draws each for M6 and PBall... including powerplay)... I will eventually try this with the cash5, but for now I must focus on fine tuning and implementing a back-testing method (to gather a final error-correction mask)
to do...
fine tune Match6 sheet to match fine tuning of powerball short term stats...
back-test
convert cash5 sheet to new protocol....
so far 8 copies of the NBey6 workout have been freely distributed ,a NEW feature has been added, TicTacToe... total picks for each drawing now stand at 16. TTT implementation was at user request...
Just got done updating the cash5 sheet (was 20+ draws out of synch)
Got a new idea to begin paper teting this week...
Fine tuning PB sheets and Match6 sheets...
Just updated pick 3 mid/eve and pick 4 mid/eve... 1 month old on the eves and not since feb. on the mids...
I am finally on my way to boiling down my myriad of statistics into ONE pick... win or lose...
I have one for TONIGHT's 212M... the prior drawing matched 2 white balls in position (a key success will be having the numbers right in their respective positions)
time for lady luck and the MUSL to take over, I have done my part yet again.
How to beat that pesky red ball.. At this point it's all I am after... picking the right number with 42 possibilities with one pick... WHY is it so elusive?
1:42... and I have no clue as to the next one... my Excel data often leads me on wild goose chases by decades or announcers, rarely resulting in a correct hit... ALL I WANT IS A METHOD TO PICK THE POWERBALL... not even a single shooter, I would be happy to narrow it down to 5 picks of the 42... I can't even get 21 of 42 right most weeks on paper...
someday... but HOW?
