hypersoniq's Blog

So, the concept is known as "multi-level" sorting. It is in spreadsheets under sort where you can apply a sort criteria, then apply a second sort criteria, such as the "then by" fields in Microsoft Excel.

As it stands now, my display is sorted by the digits 0 through 9, so I have to go back to the left column to see which digit the output is describing. These are buffered in a list so that when the function is done, it can display the rows side by side.

I would rather sort by multi level criteria, such that 

1. Data is sorted descending by frequency

Then

2. Sorted by draws out ascending.

The changes I have to make involve first including the digits 0 to 9 in the output columns instead of a stand alone header column. Then, multi level sorts are created backwards...

1. Sort by last draw out (ascending) 

2. Sort by frequency (descending)

This lines up the numbers first by frequency large to small, but where frequency is the same, they are sub sorted by number of draws out from small to large.

It is a pain to do that by hand on paper, and has to be done in multiple sheets to get it right on a spreadsheet... so why not build it directly into the code?

The goal... have each column going from Hots on top to colds on the bottom... the neutrals will line up in the middle and a whole row can be selected... one that lines up all neutrals...

If there are an odd number of rows that contain all neutrals, pick the one in the middle... if there are an even number of all neutral lines, pick between the two at the middle, using the lowest sum of last draw out.

Since it is paper play, the numbers selected using this method for the next 2 weeks (starting yesterday, when the list was written out, so they are current for the next 12 mid day and next 13 eve)

The picks for the next 12 draws are as follows...

PA mid day pick 3 = 690

PA evening pick 3 = 537

So, if those combos appear from today to Wednesday 10/8, then the paper pick test worked. Remember, there is a far greater chance that they appear because I am NOT playing them... but the budget has me on my 2nd week of 4 for the Match 6. That means for the better part of 3 weeks I have time to plan, test and implement these changes into the Pick N script.

I will NOT be paper playing the Match 6 however...

Since they require a pick 3 win to incorporate (Box hit for pick 5 and straight hit for Cash 4 Life), same rules apply... attempts can only be funded by pick 3 wins during the 2 weeks of pick 3 in the 6 week cycle. They don't have to happen immediately, but funding by a win is required, so the chances of playing Cash 4 Life becomes much more limited. Same with the PA Quinto.

Going to get the 2nd week Match 6 ticket this afternoon, 3 weeks until the next shot at the pick 3.

I like the cycle approach because the cost is the same and there are shots at jackpot money for 2/3 of the 6 weeks.

In fact, the Cash 4 Life may not get to go live again until 2026, because the goal for the remaining pick 3 shots this year are to accumulate 3 $250 straight hits by year's end and save them to 100% fund the entire project in 2026.

That would be the ultimate achievement for 2025. (Outside of a Jackpot win on Match 6, of course)

It is all about creating more opportunities to win on the bare minimum budget.

Now I can take a dive into the pick N program to make any desired upgrades and changes during these next 3 "Match 6" weeks, and do the same for the Match 6 script while the pick 3 is live. I am also extending the window of Pick 5 (because the script does pick 2 through pick 5) to 14 days to see if it helps with the percentage of neutral draws like it did with the pick 3 (70% chance of an NNN draw in 7 days on pick 3 vs 90% chance of an NNN draw in 14 days)

The cycles are still variables, anything can be changed and back tested at any time. The logic seems sound, the interpretation of the data by Me is what needs to improve... and that is a work in progress.

It was like any other week long test, no positive results. The numbers that I selected had no more than 2 in the same draw. The QP lines were horrible. 

But, week 2 starts tonight, and with it a new set of QP lines.

When tracking past draws with a 28 draw window, there MAY be an all neutral draw, but it is not guaranteed. There may be 2 or 3... Neutrals were drawn, just not really from the group that I picked. Not concerned however as 21 draws remain in the attempt.

The interesting concept is looking at those around the second quartile (the median frequency ones), particularly those just below that median. Since that involves looking at the median frequency value, it means to look for ones that have not yet crossed that value, this subset cuts many numbers from the neutrals... it also increases the risk of throwing away ones that will be drawn. This attempt focuses on those, while future attempts may look to those neutrals closer to the hot and cold limits... new neutrals warming up from the cold side or warm neutrals about to go hot... next Match 6 cycle will look at the colder ones and the Match 6 cycle after that will focus on those at the border of being hot.

In between 4 week Match 6 cycles will be the Pick 3 cycle of 2 weeks... these will continue to look at the Q2 line, as that seems to be the place of greatest interest for these games.

So the overall 6 week cycle is basically 4 weeks of jackpot chase followed by 2 weeks of trying to have the state fund it... when looking back at what I had played in the first 9 weeks, extending to a second week the same pick 3 combos would have brought in 3 more boxes and a mid day straight hit... but hindsight is always 20/20.

I try

I adjust

I try again

That is the real cycle here.

While the Match 6 first test has 22 draws left, it is time to do some work to the pick 3 version... namely roll it into a GUI. I usually stop development at getting output to study, but I feel it may be best to take the next step and make a graphic user interface. There is interest in being able to rearrange data that has been calculated by certain criteria, such as sorting by frequency rather than sorting by digit, and even flipping back and forth between views. Not being familiar with Python GUI tools is 100% my fault, an oversight that I can correct. This will also allow spawning of visualizations much easier than at the script level. Some things may need refactoring, but nothing too major, and it will directly apply to any Pick N game data I feed it. Then when there is match 6 down time during pick 3 play, convert to that game what was learned in the pick 3 GUI development.

If I can get a good start, 2026 will be much more interesting. Goal... play all year. Never did that before!

With a 6 week cycle of Match 6 and pick 3, starting on the 1st with the Match 6, I will get 9 chances on Match 6 (4 weeks) and 8 chances on the pick 3 (2 weeks). The last pick 3 cycle will roll into 2027. I Know the cost up front @$728, I know the schedule... now just have to know the numbers, the hardest part of all.

The $14/week budget seems to be the best (and cheapest) one yet. Can't play multiple games on it (with the exception of the pick N day and night games). It has known expenses...

1 week $14

1 month ~$60 on average

1 year $728

Looking at the fact that I am 10 weeks in, my total expense on this system has been $42 because of that one hit. Many months this year were also skipped while developing the current system.

While it may be tempting to play both the pick 3 AND Match 6 simultaneously, the above numbers would be doubled.

So what I have decided is to A and B it for the rest of the year...

Currently nearing the end of the Match 6 first week of four. When that wraps up, I will switch to 2 weeks of the pick 3, then back to the Match 6 for 4 more weeks. Best of both worlds, chance at play money (pick 3) and a chance at real money (Match 6). 

Lower prizes cut the cost, so it is doubtful that the full $728 would ever be reached. Finishing out the year with this A and B plan. That is also the plan moving into 2026.

At the year end the budget starts over, losses from the current year are not worth worrying about, as it was "entertainment". Looking back at this year, given the gaps, my expenses are definitely less than 1/4 of that $728, and I played more often this year than in years prior... if the rest of the year is a wash, this system will end 2025 $196 in the red, and the entire year might get close to $400 in expenses, but as far as hobbies go, it is cheap.

The A and B change also allows down time with each game to work out strategy refinements that were rushed in the week to week plan. If I had doubled the budget to accommodate both games at the same time, losses would be doubled. Not to mention that if the few weeks left with the pick 3 have some luck, 3 straight hits pay for 2026 in advance!

Everything stays identical, except the chance of at least one all neutral hit goes from 70% to 90%...

What does that mean going forward? It means play the same combo for 2 weeks, not just 1...

Today, the Mid Day pick 3 was last week's pick boxed... cost $28 ( 2 weeks @ $14), the box hit would have been $40, refunding the 2 weeks and providing $12 of the $14 needed for the next week... the 90% holds for day (RNG) and night (Mechanical).

When returning to pick 3, it will be a 2 week window... same budget... of course, if the best chance at a hit is in the second week... why play the first week at all? Will watch the paper play carefully for the next month or so...

So far, as expected, nothing won. On my line, night 1 had 0 numbers, night 2 had 1 and night 3 had 2.

On the pick 3, you could tell when the all neutral draw happened because 2 of the numbers would be in position and then it was back to being way off. I expect the same with the Match 6.

The biggest difference is the sample ratio. The pick 3 used 150 draws to make sure each number had a fair shot at being drawn 15 times, the Match 6 is looking at 490 draws to make sure each number has a fair shot at being drawn 10 times. If this initial test goes by with no highlights, the second pick will be made from 735 draws to match the 15 times of the pick 3 version.

There are other differences, and it is interesting how each version incorporates something learned from the last. The Cash 4 Life implementation of the "rows (draws) since last appearance" required logic to handle numbers NOT drawn at all in each column. This was directly incorporated into the Match 6 version.

Playing the Match 6 is just one line, played 4 times for 7 days each. Total of 28 draws, so this marks a break from using their advance draw availability to set the forecast window. Perhaps when this gets old and I go back to the pick 3, it could be for a 14 draw window instead of 7. Also, the Cash 4 Life could expand to a 30 day window, that way the same bet slip marked for 10 draws can just be used 3 times without the need for that last one that was for 6 draws. The chance of getting another crack at the Cash 4 Life is just about zero while playing the Match 6.

Not sure how long this Match 6 will go, but each attempt takes 4 weeks. May finish the year on it.

More excitement for the same budget... the Pick 3 straight is not a major event, but getting this to work even once would be literally life changing... even if split with other winners... though that is rare, most Match 6 hits are solo wins... even when it climbs from the starting $500,000 to 2 or 3 million.

Why not go for the Cash 5? For a ticket cost that is the same $2 per draw, there are more prize tiers. Also, that one is usually hit by multiple winners.

Even though they give 2 quick pick lines, I am focusing on my picked line. Breaking the 28 draw window into one week steps, those QP lines will be changed every 7 days.

They let you play for up to 26 advance draws, but the 7 day / 4 week window gives 2 extra draws and it stays on the weekly budget.

I have, in the past, held 26 draw tickets. I did that once with follower data and hit $1k for 5 of 6, but it was on a QP line. For the purpose of this trial, I am only counting matches on my picked line, the neutrals. The N of 18 prizes are not being factored in... only counting the number of neutrals picked per draw. 

Any N of 18 hits will help defray the next week's purchase, but if the neutrals are not showing up, then it is time to look for a new way to pick from the script output.

This first test involved picking from the central transition, which is the median (Q2). Numbers were picked that had a frequency just below this level, and will cross over to the higher side of neutral if selected.

With 2 draws in, the first night had 0 matches on the line of interest, and last night my line matched 1. 

You need 3 on one line for $2, also having 4 of 18 also pays $2. No cash prizes hit in the first 2 nights.

Outside of the top tier hit of 6 out of 6, the pay table is kind of weak...

Top prize is the rolling jackpot (currently $830,000)

5 of 6 on one line only pays $1,000

4 of 6 on one line pays $20

3 of 6 on one line pays $2

The N of 18 game pays based on all 3 lines

10+ pays $2,500

9 pays $1,000

8 pays $50

7 pays $25

6 pays $10

5 pays $5

And 4 pays $2

If all 18 numbers on a ticket are unique, your ticket in the N of 18 can only be worth up to $10 on that part of the game (unless those 6 are all on the same line...)

The high N of 18 prize would require 5 of 18 numbers to have a match on the QP lines, which you do not get to pick. This is why I decided to go with a 4 week window (28 draws, changing the QP lines 4 times) rather than one $52 26 draw ticket. The N of 18 game is kind of like the double play on power ball, only they don't charge extra for it and the prizes are weak.

Don't get me wrong, any hit will be taken, but the absolute focus is on that line of neutrals I picked, because that is what I had to work with.

You need 4 pairs for a shot at the 10 of 18, I have never bought such a ticket, but there are the occasional winners of that prize. They DO pay on both versions of the game... if you have 3 on one line ($2) and match one other number on the other lines for 4 of 18 ($2), you win $4. When I hit that $1,000 they paid $1,025 because I matched 7 of 18 as well.

I know in advance the cost of this first attempt, $56... but not all up front. It replaces the $14/week that I was already using to play the pick 3. Also, any small prize hits along the way will lower that $56 cost.

2 draws in, no cash prizes. My current week ticket has 3 pairs, so highest possible N of 18 = 9.

Onward...

The "strategy" is play one combo for a week, the same combo for 28 draws (4 weeks) for a cost of $14 per week.

Why not just play for 26 draws at once? Because I get 2 new QP lines each week.

Best case scenario for the pick 3... IF day and night hit in the same week is $580 to $660. If this game works out, best case (min. Jackpot, post tax) is $299,650 (per winner).

Same basic concept.

Now if they will pick the right numbers for a change..

Got the draws out counter working on the Cash 4 life version of the script. This was more difficult because not all 60 numbers appear in each column. I had to wrap the counter in an if statement to first check if the value appears, then process as normal if it does, and replace with a dummy value (999) if it does not.

In this update I also added the display of neutrals per column.

Last update will be adding the chi square goodness of fit and P value... then porting to Match 6 will be as easy as changing the game parameter values (mere minutes of work).

I may be on my last pick 3 week for a change of focus to the Match 6 for the exact same budget.

Maybe it would be helpful to jot down what the components are and how they are obtained.

The first is the "model". Simple to put together, it is the last 150 draws pf the PA pick 3. There is a separate model for day and night.

Next is the classified distribution over that model. This is all digits 0 through 9. Looking at raw frequency, the count is the number of times each was drawn in that 150 draw model, separate columns per position. Along with that is the percentage of the whole... digit frequency divided by 150, then multiplied by 100. This shows at a glance how near or far the raw frequency was from the 10% expectancy. It is this percentage that is the basis for the other statistics. 

Quartiles are calculated for the percentages, with Q2, the median, always being at or near 10%. Those percentages that fall within the inter quartile range (Q1 to Q3) are classified as Neutral. Any percentage below Q1 is classified as Cold, and any percentage above Q3 is classified as Hot. This used to be one standard deviation below or above expectancy, but the inter quartile range is more stable and less influenced by outliers.

Finally, each digit has a number that is how many draws since it's last appearance. This is calculated by counting the rows from the bottom (newest) until that digit appears.

Seems straight forward enough.

Now, we look toward that 7 draw window in which we are trying to guess which all neutral numbers will appear. I wrote the script with a window parameter. When set to 0, it just gives the list above. When set to 7, it goes back 7 draws before calculating the model and then proceeds to classify the last 7 draws. After 1 week of play, the 7 draws are added to see how they were classified, and where I went wrong with the guess.

The original observation was that an all neutral draw happens at least once in any given 7 draw window about 70% of the time... back testing confirmed the observation.

We can not peer into the future. We still do not know which numbers will or will not be drawn, but we Do know which will drop off the list by the end of the week... it is the first 7 draws of 150... so the script will run the full 150, then run with a smaller model of 143. Both lists are printed, so we can see if a number changes classification at the transition points (hot to neutral, neutral to cold).

So then over the weeks of play, I started focusing on the Q2 transition area. Numbers slightly below expectancy transitioning to slightly above expectancy.

The current week focused on these transition numbers specifically. In simple form, numbers drawn less than 15 times that could come up and hit the 15 mark or even exceed it.

The good part... these numbers do end up appearing when looking over the next 7 draws

The bad part... they do NOT appear on the same draw.

Remembering that not only are draws independent of previous draws, they are also independent by position, I find myself stuck for how to tie them together.

I had learned through observation and back testing that when eliminating hots and colds as outliers, numbers in a random system tend to fill from the middle of the frequency range. This holds true for both RNG draws (PA Pick 3 MID) and ball draws (PA Pick 3 EVE). Yet even with this knowledge, it is still difficult or even impossible to get the right combo. (Outside of a single coincidental win, just like every other system so far.)

That is where I begin to look at an automated phase 2. Feeding these statistics into an agent that can analyze what data is present, based on the constraints provided by a Markov Decision Process. The problem I am having with this is... how do I set up rules when I can't even figure the steps out on my own?

I think it would be worthwhile to take a break from the Pick 3 again and brainstorm some new ideas. So, once I convert the Cash 4 Life script to work with the PA Match 6, I will switch to that for 4 weeks (28 draw window, 735 draw model) and drop the pick 3. Same cost ($14/week), and playing the same combo 4 times over 4 weeks will allow for 2 different QP lines each week.

Probably won't be ready for the change over for another week or 2, but I am coming up dry now trying to get that elusive second pick 3 win. Even though the Match 6 lower tier prizes are not very exciting, that minimum $500,000 top prize is better than I can get within the budget on any of the pick N games... and if that only works once, it is good enough!

Of course, since there is at least 1 or 2 weeks left to play Pick 3 before switching to Match 6, the all neutral QP generator could help out by reducing the number of neutrals loaded into it... just loading neutrals that are near that Q2 internal transition area. It is these numbers I notice most as showing up in the 7 draw window. If there is no deterministic way to select, just use an RNG to select from the leading candidate digits in each position... worth a shot!

Thinking about the wait on wins for the pick 3 brings up another option... the Match 6. 

If it were played in 7 draw increments, it would cost the same as the pick 3, $14 per week... a window of 28 days is just playing the same combo 4 weeks in a row. Sure the Quick Pick lines would change each week, but it fits the budget perfectly... park the pick 3 attempt for 4 weeks... if only the lower tier prizes were better...

As I approach the halfway point of week 9, It is getting a bit dull seeing the same thing week after week.

It will take a bit of time to convert the script for the 6/49 game, but it might be a welcome change up. I can still paper play the pick 3 for those 4 weeks to keep trying to refine the process. This will force my lazy self to finish the Cash 4 Life variant that I can not seem to find the motivation to do.

In the past 8 weeks or so, I have seen one night number picked in the day, it was boxed. I have also seen at least 2 instances where a boxed hit would have come in if I played the wild ball.

Not a missed opportunity, however. 8 weeks @ $14 per week is $112. Those "opportunities" would have netted $112... BUT... playing day for night and night for day DOUBLES the ticket price, and adding the Wild Ball ALSO doubles the ticket price... that $112 would have cost an additional $336, for an 8 week cost of $448.

At that point it is not fun anymore...

Because of an earlier win, I am about to drop another $14 out of pocket for this next week, bringing my total out of pocket expense to $28... not bad for 9 weeks of daily play... PLUS the original win funded a few cracks at the pick 5 AND the initial attempt at the Cash 4 Life brute force gambit.

Another straight win will allow free play for the rest of the year, if there are 2 wins between now and December 31st, that will fund a second try at Cash 4 Life.

The point, gotta be rigid with the budget, no added bells and whistles like wild balls or playing the day/night switch. This lets it keep the entertainment value. 2 games (mid P3 and eve P3) for $14 per week is as modest as I can make the budget and still be in the game.

Now, I could always drop the box play and cut that in half to $7 per week, but what fun would that be?

The strategy this week is to pick frequencies that reside in between Q1 and Q2, with Q2 being the transition target.

In 150 draws, Q2 is that frequency of 15 appearances, so looking at the neutrals at or below 15... where being drawn crosses the Q2 line within the next 7 draws.

So far, not looking good. The first day (9/4) was probably the best shot at a box hit on mid, and a straight hit on eve...

My mid number... 393, Thursday mid draw 133,

My eve number... 172, Thursday eve draw 272.

I have no new ideas for how to interpret the output any differently for next week. BUT, I will try again.