hypersoniq's Blog

I basically suck at picking numbers... latest PB challenge I entered 15 numbers, not a match...

for powerball I had a 13 and 15, 14 comes up grr..............

my betting strategy does keep the wallet happy tho, 1 ticket per $100,000,000

I spent $3 for last night (I gave up the powerplay unless it can be paid for by the previous draw's winnings, and I am in what can best be described as a "dry spell" )

nothing seems to be working for me, I am tempted to just pick up 3 QPs for wed. I think I will...

should be interesting for a winner faced with 2 options

1. Annuity: after tax consists of 30 payments of $3,900,000 they will deduct the 27% and the winner will need to pay $480,000 each year to hit the current tax rate (will go up as the top tax rate goes up)

2. Cash: after tax one-time payment of $56,680,000 (you owe $6,976,000 during the next year in taxes and would have $56,680,000 left free and clear)

the end value of the annuity depends entirely on the tax rate, could fluctuate but will probably never dip below the current 35% (40%+ next liberal president).

If you choose the cash, where do you put it? it is a one-time wire transfer... FDIC insurance is 100k per account PER FINANCIAL INSTITUTION (100 savings accounts at the same bank don't protect you)... highest progra I have ever seen for FDIC protection is a CD-ARS account but that has a cap of $20,000,000...

wonder if that is by s.s.n. ? then a married couple could have 2 accounts at 2 different banks and get 40 million of insurance... putting the balance (16 million) into investments/real estate/municipal funds/trusts for the kids... so many options, too easy to be taken advantage of... I would definitely opt for at least one account in the CDARS format... ideally it will work by s.s.n. then I could have one, the mrs. and each of the 3 kids can have 4 mill (the trust funds) all totally protected by FDIC insurance.... sounds like a definite conversation starter if I ever need to consult a financial planner...

ah, yes but there remains that pesky detail of actually winning...

but I am at least aware of some of my options if I do... come on MUSL, let me have a shot at solving those type of problems...

there appears to be no one formula for solving problems that we need to solve. there are, however different approaches to doing it.

1,2,3,4,?,6

of course it's 5, and to describe the relationship is

n+1

for n+5 with a start number of 10 we have

5,10,15,20,25,30

-------------------------------

for THE FOLLOWING

1,4,10,22,90,182

(n+1)x2

--------------------------------

I am looking at trying something on the powerball (just the red one, not the white 5 for now)involving backsolving an equation thatthe data can fit into... I can't see anyother way around it. I have googled for days (weeks even) and according to mathematics as we know it, there is no general formula for this type of thing. I am going to try some different things out including interpolation (to find midpoints in draw data) and then extrapolation (to find the next draw basedonresultsfrom interpolation).

I'm otherwise out of ideas again, and I hate being out of ideas with a PB jackpot over 100M

sorry for anyone playing along, but I am no longer developing or updating any of the systems I have been working on and sharing until I go back to basics and get concrete steps defined for the process of prediction.

website will stay up, sheets there now will remain... but I am tired of spending time crunching numbers with no idea how to really interpret the results. I'm even going back to QP only for PB...

hopefully I can share a newer system soon with some real power behind it (probably not, but you never know)

what do we DO with draw history?

we could convert it any number of ways (high/low)(odd/even)...

but then what?

we have a ton of filter tutorial threads yet not one single post on how to interpret the results...

why? why not?

deltas... converts the data into changes from the last draw... but then what?

skips... some swear by them, why? how are they to be interpreted?

we have a board full of people capable of gathering and presenting data in wonderful ways, able to extract every statistic possible... but then what?

time to move everything to the next level... time to define once and for all what prediction is, what a trend is, what a pattern is... we need interpretation tutorials... data mining instructions are good, but what to do with the results would be priceless...

this is our "missing link", this is why NONEof the systems can pass backtesting with good results.

any ideas? any links? anything?

so far, the coding is going well... need to get some variable seed sweeps going, gotta learn more about excel to pull that off.

I can make it pick fixed numbers with the rnd(-1) call, and randomize using any seed I want without changing after a recalc... now to find the right seed or seed progression to make some hits appear...

I have a backtest sheet that uses simultaneous picks, it will pick 1 three-digit number and then 3 individual digits to try both methods.

sheet for pick4 is ready just as soon as the pick3 shows some potential.

this is only good for trying individual seeds, to sweep I think I need straight VB

SB is a no-go, can't get any improvements.

on to the next set of projects...

up now is the PRNG synch for PA mid 3/4, and some paper testing of a "focused forecast" for powerball... too complex for backtesting right now, lost a bit of ambition on the SB bust...

I have to start PA mid testing clean-sheet because I don't normally track CPU draws. seed fortesting will start at the number value of the date+time (also known as NOW() in excel) adding 13:10 as a start and working forward.

I will be using VBA for the RNG, calling it in the sheet as a custom function. I will use several functions at a time for streamlined testing, not holding my breath for any great results, but gotta try

SB is a no-go, can't get any improvements.

on to the next set of projects...

up now is the PRNG synch for PA mid 3/4, and some paper testing of a "focused forecast" for powerball... too complex for backtesting right now, lost a bit of ambition on the SB bust...

I have to start PA mid testing clean-sheet because I don't normally track CPU draws. seed fortesting will start at the number value of the date+time (also known as NOW() in excel) adding 13:10 as a start and working forward.

I will be using VBA for the RNG, calling it in the sheet as a custom function. I will use several functions at a time for streamlined testing, not holding my breath for any great results, but gotta try

I put up a powerball sheet on my page

important... IT DOESN"T DO ANYTHING YET, it uses data all the way back to 1997 and it's small in size

the only "pick" it even attempts to make is the raw result of FORECAST

there are 4 sheets...

Worksheet 1. Draw Data

  column A = draw date

  columns B-F = white ball draw data SORTED (WS1-WS5)

  column G = powerball 

  column H-L = white ball draw data DRAW ORDER (WD1-WD5)

  column I = day of the week (wed./sat.)

  column J = draw number

  old draws are at the top, add new draws to the bottom...

Worksheet 2. Frequency

  column A = number (1/55 covers PB 1-42 also)

  column B = total count (how many times appeared in the game whether PB or WB)

  column C-G = sort order freq.. how many times each number hit in each position (SORT ORDER)

  column H = powerball frequency

  column I-M = draw order freq..

      row 58 contains the largest number of each column, this is for conditional formatting to allow the highest one to be highlighted.

Worksheet 3. Statistics

a look at some statistics for the game history

Worksheet 4. Cash Value Calculator

enter the data requested in the green cells (MUSL advertised cash value), see what you can actually expect if taking the cash value

don't know what else it's good for at this point, but it might be a good start for something...

uses formulas extended to row 2000 for fast recalcs (no need for F9 in this one), after row 2000 on history sheet, formulas will need to be changed... that's a LONG way off

enjoy

still looking for improvements, not finding results...

also wondering how to apply something similar to a 5/39 gamelike PA Cash5

and ultimately to the only game I actually play, powerball...

maybe I need a completely new idea... I'm out of them at the moment...

to copy from the old cliche...

I have good news and bad news...

the GOOD news is that ALL formulas have been fixed with some help and the keen eyes of other LP excellers

the BAD news is the hits went away... first sheet corrected went from 64 hits down to 8...

this fails both long term cost/winnings AND cyclic hit rates.

Usually I would stop here, write off the system as YAFA (yet another failed attempt), but there must be more progress that can be made... the concept still seems valid... glad I never got to the part where I buy tickets for it... I'm riding this one out a bit longer, going down with the ship...

I will save a version with the bad formulas, false hope is better than none ;-)

these picks are from each of the 4 SB sheet variants...

good for tonight in PA...

L2H_FH = 4-4-9
H2L_FH = 4-4-9
L2H_RH = 4-4-0
H2L_RH = 4-4-9

see how this works... the 4 systems picked the same first 4 digits, and the same last digit 3/4 times....

you could play this twice and be done.... play the most frequent(449), play the oddball in the group (440), play heavier on the 449, or skip it altogether.

the number of repeat picks like this ensure the system will remain cheap to play ;-)

Here is how I envision version 2....

one workbook with 2 sheets,

sheet one.......

State Draw History

this will contain the draw history as compact as possible

col.A Draw Number

B. Date

C. Combo

D. first digit

E. second digit

F. third digit

G. First vertical pair

H. Second vertical pair

I. third vertical pair

and that's it... the FORMULAE will contain the magic, since we will get faster recalcs that way

PLUS, it will be EASY to get the state's data in for ALL the state games for each individual user.

(smaller files means I can post more than one state to my homepage, after deleting the original backtest versions)

sheet two...

User Interactive Form!

this will do several things... I am thinking of having the following abilities

1.allow you to update the next draw in the database (sheet 1) from an easy form

2. allow you to pick from several options

  a. the original SB pick where it breaks ties low to high, using full history (L2H_FH)

  b. the SB pick where ties are broken High to Low, using full history (H2L_FH)

  c. the SB pick using a shorter version of history, rolling 1800-2000 draws (L2H_RH) & (H2L_RH)

3. will show counts for 0-9 in each position for each of the 4 above so you can see where the numbers came from

ok, what will be lost doing it this way...

    1. no ability to count previous hits, no backtesting

    2. no at-a-glance tally of formula changes over time

what will be gained...

    1. smaller file

    2. faster calculations

    3. 4 sets of numbers to pick from (there WILL be duplicates, maybe that could be an indicator of a good pick?)

    4. ease of use for those not keen on excel experimentation

now the request...

Any other ideas or requests to go into version 2?

After V2 is released, I am moving on to trying to apply this to the PA Cash5 (whole new laundry list of problems to overcome) and eventually the ultimate target (for me, anyway) powerball...

thanks hareless for sending the sheet!

41 hits in 3,814 draws!

(btw, hareless, I fixed up the formula to get rid of the -1's for more accurate results, e-mailed it back to you)

I'm glad it wasn't just a fluke with PA data...

thanks to all who continue to experiment, refine and tweak the system!

best of luck in upcoming 2006, let's break the bank!

Massachusetts evening Numbers Game (pick 4)
29 years, expected 3 hits (needed to pass), got 13  !!!!!!!

cost to play $10,140
amount won $unknown, pari-mutuel
net profit $???

now the reality check
Last Hit 10/10/2005 1-5-4-0
years missed  1976, 1980-1982, 1984-1988, 1990-1993, 1995-1997, 2000-2002, 2004
another state's data appears to work with the SB system!