hypersoniq's Blog

the results of testing so far... the first set is the pick, the second set is the difference from the winning numbers... right now the system is a double-filtered composite of 8 stats (4 long term and 4 short term)... error correction masks have been applied at each phase, backtesting is unimpressive so far, a few match 3/5 and scattered PB only hits... pick for 6/16 is too close to the 6/12 pick, so I shortened the short term to only 10 or less draws back... I may have to either optimize OR make them 5 or less (will work for all but MODE).

from match 6...

numbers are too close together in the picks... short term definitely needs to be shortened...

for tuesday/wednesday, I will reduce the short term to the last 3 draws where possible, maybe Guru is onto something...

My one pick system is an ever evolving nightmare of calculations and continuity challenges... there are now 3 worksheets in one excel workbook feeeding the final pick.

The number is an averaged composite of 10 individual picks (Short term and Long term).... today I conquered the pesky backtest normulae only to be unimpressed with the results... I have generated error corrections like mad, don't know what stage to apply them... I am currently running 2 backtest scenarios side by side to see the results and compare hits...

As expected, it is pulling in more positional hits than any one of the component picks that comprise it, BUT as feared they are not lining up on the same line for a prize win... Oh well, it IS just one pick per draw finally...

I can't help but wonder as I conjure up new error correction masks and refine and optimize the components... Is this like a radio signal? Is there some "frequency" component I should add to the error correction to synchronize individual lines for more hits? or would that just be dangerous hindsight manipulation? Time will tell, but backtest results are not as robust as I thought... could be the wrong stats, or the wrong weighting scheme... maybe error correction needs to be applied at every stage... I can do that and will try that, but it IS a time consuming affair that I need a break from for the rest of the day... I have until wednesday to get one good pick. I already have one for Match6. M6 uses the SAME EXACT normulas, yet the golden pick for match6 is matching 1 or 2 consistently...

one good thing about the whole system is the accurate ranging by decade... alot closer than the individual stat picks...

spent a few hours completely redesigning my powerball and match6 sheets....

issue 1. Replacing the INT function with ROUND for more accuracy.

      for example =INT(MEDIAN(C$2:C175))   becomes  =ROUND((MEDIAN(C$2:C175)),0) in this way a result of 27.7 becomes 28 rather than 27. I did this to my entire set of spreadsheets...

issue 2. Short Term trend data... copied the entire sort and draw stat pages and made new ones looking back from 3 to 11 draws rather than at the whole history

issue 3. combining Long Term and Short Term and determining weights... done by best pernormance over a total of the draw history... do better, get a higher weight.

the big tests will happen tuesday for match 6 and wednesday for powerball. one line for each draw... if this works out well, I will have reduced my regular lottery budget to $8 per week (2 draws each for M6 and PBall... including powerplay)... I will eventually try this with the cash5, but for now I must focus on fine tuning and implementing a back-testing method (to gather a final error-correction mask)

to do...

fine tune Match6 sheet to match fine tuning of powerball short term stats...

back-test

convert cash5 sheet to new protocol....

so far 8 copies of the NBey6 workout have been freely distributed ,a NEW feature has been added, TicTacToe... total picks for each drawing now stand at 16. TTT implementation was at user request...

Just got done updating the cash5 sheet  (was 20+ draws out of synch)

Got a new idea to begin paper teting this week...

Fine tuning PB sheets and Match6 sheets...

Just updated pick 3 mid/eve and pick 4 mid/eve... 1 month old on the eves and not since feb. on the mids...

I am finally on my way to boiling down my myriad of statistics into ONE pick... win or lose...

I have one for TONIGHT's 212M... the prior drawing matched 2 white balls in position (a key success will be having the numbers right in their respective positions)

time for lady luck and the MUSL to take over, I have done my part yet again.

How to beat that pesky red ball.. At this point it's all I am after... picking the right number with 42 possibilities with one pick... WHY is it so elusive?

1:42... and I have no clue as to the next one... my Excel data often leads me on wild goose chases by decades or announcers, rarely resulting in a correct hit... ALL I WANT IS A METHOD TO PICK THE POWERBALL... not even a single shooter, I would be happy to narrow it down to 5 picks of the 42... I can't even get 21 of 42 right most weeks on paper...

someday... but HOW?