hypersoniq's Blog

I planned on not playing lucky for life because I disagree with another $2 game in PA that has at it's core a lame prize... 3k per month is only 36k a year... AND that's before taxes...

but, thanks to my $9 hit on wednesday's PB and some mild salesmanship on the part of the guy who owns the store where I play 90% of the time (he said the instant wins would likely be higher on the first day of sales)... I ponied up $2 and got a QP... I told him one shot won't hurt, but I doubt I will make it a regular addition.

well, he pushed the button and the thing starts playing the PA lottery jingle, ticket says I win $10 instantly... well that's cool! so, I get my $2 back and $8 more... given the fact that I also played my pick for PB I intended to leave with $7 (left from the $9 win) and ended up leaving with $15 (enough to keep my PB system funded for 7 drawings)... and a ticket for each game. savor the small victories!

Since I don't plan on playing L4L ever again, I can honestly say I beat that game ;-)

I wonder if the data is enough to try an empirical "process-of-elimination" based on past pernormance of the numbers on saturday (as announcers), the observed ranges and the bell curve indicators...

Might be worth a try. I will add 1 pick using the above method to the 1 system pick just for kicks... last time I used the above method, there were only 120 draws in history, with 86 more draws, maybe the announcers have settled and the bell curve is more "guessable"... time will tell...

5.4% unemployment is a loaded statistic... don't forget that it represents 8,000,000 people

And... they are only people actively collecting unemployment benefits... there are still 1.6 million in a fringe that the government doesn't like to include... they are, and I quote the United states department of labor here...

The number of persons who were marginally attached to the labor force was
1.6 million in August, about the same as a year earlier.  (Data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.)  These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.  They were not counted
as unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the
4 weeks preceding the survey.  There were 534,000 discouraged workers in
August, also about the same as a year earlier.  Discouraged workers, a subset
of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically
because they believed no jobs were available for them.  The other 1.1 million
marginally attached had not searched for work for reasons such as school or
family responsibilities.

1.6 million don't count? Statistics are dangerous in an election year because they can be skewed and adjusted to fit the need of the group requesting or gathering the statistics.

They don't even have a statistic for those who went back to work after the Nafta-Shafta to a job that pays less or has limited or no health benefits?

People won't understand until it affects them... I guess that's the bottom line. It's easy to accept the ignorance of those who have not had to come home not once but twice (or more times) to their families and tell them they were laid off for no better reason than government blessed corporate greed...

THe republicans do not care about the poor or the middle class, the democrats do not care about the rich and the middle class, so regardless of who wins, it's not going to really make things better for the middle class, but an administration willing to stick it to corporate greed is better than the blatant arrogance of rich nafta abusers who are more than willing to sell out their own people for profit.... just go vote and show them we still care... The deadline to register is very early in october, so go do it now, and bring a norm of ID to the poll if you are a first time voter or voting in a new district, that will make the process easier for you. Regardless of which way you vote, just do it because not voting has apparently given them the green light to do whatever they want.

Take all statistics with a grain of salt, because they express what the poll takers want it to express, just like you can fool yourself into believing misleading lottery statistics... we as a group know better than that... just because it hasn't affected you yet doesn't mean it's not affecting millions of others...

People who bothered to vote last time will probably vote the same way in November.

Last time was close.

This time, 4 years worth of 18th birthdays and a multi-angled media blitz might just change things.

---MTV is trying to get 20,000,000 voters in their demographic to the polls ("rock the vote")

---The disenfranchised and angst-ridden punk and skate set is being motivated by such outlets as PunkVoter and their "Rock Against Bush" compilation CDs.

---Millions of unemployed still on the rolls and those no longer counted will certainly se the need if they haven't before.

I don't recall such a push with a unified message... Get Bush Out!... and the best the dems can drum up for a ticket is Kerry/Edwards...

Just today I found out at work that one customer company has filed chapter 11 and another has moved work that we did for them to mexico... again... (last time they did it the work came back because they can't touch our quality). THe blatant corporate abuse of NAFTA will only get worse under gee dubya... he has GOT to go... or be happy with the results... erosion of the middle class and the inevitable depression that follows.

Kerry's flip-flopping is a bother at first, but he does tend to flip flop in the direction of public opinion... so how bad could that be versus blatant arrogance in undermining the very foundations our country was founded upon like bush is doing...

I remember bush in PA, coming to rally for the stupid doctors complaining about malpractice insurance when half the state couldn't even afford to go to them... priorities are too far askew here.

The place where I grew up is like a micro model of what 4 more years will bring... A small rural neighborhood that was eventually decimated and swallowed up by coal companies (literally!). Around here the main goal for college grads is leaving (same for high school grads). Pollution, mine fires, local governments riddled with nepotism, no opportunity for gainful employment... our biggest export in this county is our workforce... those without skills or means to commute or leave end up in poverty. THat's my backyard... I don't want to see the whole country end up like Schuylkill County, PA... heck I have to commute to the next county for work... don't like it, but my good job is now in mexico, so no choice...

I DO have a choice in November and it won't be four more years of middle class "cleansing" leading up to economic armageddon.

Back in the day around here they did organize and fight back as best they could... they were called the Molly MacGuires... Maybe the country needs a middle class revolution... maybe it's already too late, but it's never too late to go down swinging...

Good Luck John Kerry, you're gonna need it to fix this mess.

The new Green Day CD comes out today, it's called American Idiot.

I'm all over it... after work, anyway...

Also got tix to see them live next month with Sugarcult and New Found Glory...

One happy punk here!

(( posted with permission from www.bushin30seconds.org ))

1. It appears that the Bush Administration has consistently misled the American public about Iraq, most significantly regarding Saddam Hussein's possession of weapons of mass destruction and his ties to al Queda and Osama bin Laden. More recently, the failure of Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to address abuse of Iraqi detainees has generated international outrage, threatening to further destablize the region and prolong fighting.
color=#0000ffhttp://www.house.gov/renorm/min/features/iraq_on_the_record

2. The Bush Administration's regressive environmental policies have lowered cleanliness standards for our air and water while allowing utility companies (many of whom are Bush campaign contributors) to profit off of the weakened regulations. In 2002, the head of the EPA's Office of Regulatory Enforcement resigned, complaining that the agency was "fighting a White House that seems determined to weaken the rules we are trying to enforce." (CNN, Aug. 22, 2002)
The Bush Record on the Environment for 2004:
color=#0000ffhttp://www.nrdc.org/bushrecord/2004.asp

3. Bush is underfunding education. The President cut $200 million from his own No Child Left Behind Act, eliminating crucial educational programs for lower income children and cutting professional training for more than 20,000 teachers. Flawed from its very foundation, No Child Left Behind is based on then-Governor Bush's late-`90s "Texas Miracle,"-a program of standardized testing designed to increase pernormance and reduce dropout rates--now recognized as a scandalous failure.
color=#0000ffhttp://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0338/schanberg.php

4. The Bush Administration's Patriot Act threatens our constitutional rights and civil liberties. Passed by a post 9/11 Congress, the Patriot act expands the ability of law enforcement to conduct secret searches, and engage various norms of surveillance, including internet monitoring and wiretapping. It gives the FBI access to American citizens' highly personal medical, financial, mental health, and student records without notification or permission, and allows them to investigate individuals without probable cause of a crime. Finally, it permits non-citizens to be jailed based on mere suspicion and held indefinitely in six month increments without meaningful judicial review.
color=#0000ffhttp://www.aclu.org/SafeandFree/SafeandFree.cfm?ID=12126&c=207

5. Bush's Tax Cuts only benefit the rich. Bush claimed that his tax cut would "reduce tax rates for everyone who pays income tax." He failed to mention that this "relief" program would put half of the tax cut's dividends into the hands of our nation's wealthiest 5%, while 8.1 million citizens in the bottom half of the income bracket receive approximately $300 a year. Reducing tax revenues while doubling the growth rate of federal spending has caused the federal budget deficit to balloon to a projected color=#0000ff$4 trillion over the next 10 years.
color=#0000ffhttp://www.ctj.org/html/gwbfinal.htm

6. 3.3 million jobs (93,000 in August of 2003 alone) have been lost since Bush took office--more than the last 11 Presidents combined. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2001-August 2003) Bush is likely to be the first president since Herbert Hoover to show a color=#0000ffnet loss of jobs at the end of his first term. Meanwhile, huge corporations are paying fewer taxes than ever:
color=#0000ffhttp://www.aflcio.org/yourjobeconomy/jobs/jobcrisis.cfm

7. Bush is underfunding homeland security. While energetic in waging war abroad, the Bush administration has been oddly lethargic in fortifying our defenses at home. Domestic security agencies have been neglected. Police and firefighters have been denied essential resources, and muddled public strategy has only spread alarm and confusion.
color=#0000ffhttp://www.ppionline.org/

 

THe sad part is I tend to lean right on most issues... I haven't seen a good repuplican since Reagan... NOR have I seen a good democrat.... can't remember since when.

What we really need is someone in office that had to WORK for a living and a congress that actually RePrEsEnTs the people...

Here are my ideas for congressional renorm...

1. No congressperson can have a salary that exceeds the median income level of the people in their state... if they want a raise... EARN it by helping everyone out.

2. Until such time as rampant healthcare costs are brought under control, Congress goes on AFLACK, and pays for it themselves... wanna represent the people, right?

3. Vote for all sessions, AND vote the way the people want... use web polls with SSN's as passwords, it's not about the congressperson's opinion, they are there to REPRESENT the people... make lobbyists go to the states and pay US off!

No matter which party you belong to, if dubya wins again, the party is over for the middle class... THey want 2 classes, rich and poor... if you are not now already rich, they do NOT want you to become rich... this is not the America we used to know... They want us in the middle class to be happy with 7 and 8 dollar an hour jobs with minimal or no benefits.

What we really need is a working class president. I am actually a big military technology supporter and really do NOT like kerry, but I was personally affected by Bush in a negative way and will do my part to preserve the middle class, and if that means I must vote democrat for the first time ever (yuck, but I HAVE to now)... then I will. I voted for his dad the first time, mostly out of respect for Reagan... but I register non-partisan, and at the rate things are going, we are going to turn over a polluted broke and corporate controlled country to our children that is hated the world over...

Bush only won because of FL. Unemployed people will be voting... he's on the way out... and if by hook or crook he gets back in... I can only pray for the future...

 

A true unemployment census would horrify those of us still working...

Don't get me wrong, Kerry is certainly no prize, He is the lesser of 2 evils...

My good job is overseas now, I know that I am voting and it ain't for bush... This one is for the preservation of the middle class...

# 20, called 2 weeks in a row by my one-shot system... finally comes in!

no white ball match for me, but $3 x powerplay of 4 = $12... or 3 more weeks of "free" play... woo hoo!

What is it that Lottery Players want in a system? Some are happy with narrowing a field of numbers by about 1/2 and wheeling the results... Others want a system that generates fewer lines... bottom line is everyone wants to win... Although I have dabbled in trapping, my overall goal remains the same... One Shot, One Kill... a system that generates just one pick, win-or-lose. That system I have, but it loses more than wins... To that end I will use this entry to remind myself of what it is I am after...

The Goal: To develop a system that incorporates draw history (both long term profile and short term trends) to generate the most likely set of results for the next drawing... ONE LINE... that pernorms better than the state's QP's over a pre-determined timeframe... that should WIN more than is invested in a reasonable amount of time...

Steps I have taken:

   1. I have developed a system that takes the 12 picks I used to play every draw and uses a weighting system borrowed from Artificial Neural Networks to give precedence to better pernorming components to narrow the field down to just ONE best pick.

   2. Probably the biggest personal step of all, I have disciplined myself to only play ONE ticket per draw, regardless of the jackpot size. I now spend in one week less than half of what I would spend on one draw. That's a good thing in and of itself... It is just a game with ridiculous odds, and the fun gets diminished when checking a pile of losing tickets vs. checking your one ticket... I have done both and although I miss the better chance for lower tier prizes afforded by multiple tickets, in the end the good outweighs the bad. Since dropping Match6, I spend $4 a week on powerball (2 draws @$2, one line + power play) where I would easily drop $10 or even $20 on one PB draw before (without powerplay). I even paper test system changes without playing both tickets... Without having this mindset, a one shot system would be impossible, not that I am not tempted to fork over more green at a high JP, I just don't anymore. ;-)

   3. I had tested this system for one month by buying a quick pick along with my ticket, week after week my system was closer to the results than the QP was... there was not even one time where the QP did better.

   4. I continually look for ways to improve the overall accuracy of the pick. I have delta data since I started with the system to see if any trends develop in how far I was off... so far there are no definite trends.

Steps I need to take:

   1. Incorporate proper backtest normulae. My results are just typed, I can't retroactively change the system and see what the ripple effect would be like I can with the components.

   2. Seek higher accuracy.

   3. Shake the rust off of my VB programming skills, I have become far too comfortable in excel... I don't even use access anymore.... I need to incorporate the other tools before I forget how to use them, not much call for a DBA on a machine shop floor...

   4. WIN. I don't want to be the last person in PA who hasn't won a major Powerball jackpot...

Summary:  I have the plan for what to do IF I ever win, I have a system capapble of generating just one pick and the ability to stick to just playing that one pick... Things are going good with the job, things were always good at home... If I never win, I still can't complain about life, it's what you make of it. I am not even remotely wealthy, but I don't need to win.... I WANT to win, I want to beat the system, and I want to do it with one ticket... that is my Quest... It's David (Me, actually it's John, but i digress...) vs. Goliath (THe M.U.S.L.) and I'm ready to "rock".

As long as they are dangling millions up for grabs, I'll have my ticket in the mix... Let them throw their spikes and other statistical anomalies, with one ticket, I know my odds... I am still playing for "free" on that $28 hit a few weeks ago...

wow, one-shot in practice has brought back some fun to the game for me... I already have my pick for wednesday... so to the MUSL...

Game ON...

Bring it!

This spike had a wider gap (24) than draw#199 (20) and draw# 195 (11) ... that's 3 high spikes in 8 drawings! The last 2 high spikes had high Powerballs, this time it was a 9... go figure...

my ticket of 04-11-28-32-47  +20  wasn't even close... results were 25-34-36-46-49  +09, leaving a delta of +21/+23/+8/+14/+2 PB -11. Not a good draw for me.

My similarly computed Cash5 system is doing a bit better, since I only play when the jackpot rolls... so far each play got me my $1 back... so it has basically been free so far...

I don't play the Match6 anymore, but still track it... I would have picked 3/6 in one shot if I played friday... just my luck... the one I don't play comes in a winner. I only update my cash5 sheet after a rollover because I don't want to know if it would have hit on low JP draws ;-) ignorance is bliss, or so they say.

There must be a better way...

My pick for the PB number is 20.

My system components rarely agree on one number, the last time they did, they were right with #35... here's hoping....

The last new idea thrown out that I had any real fun with was Guru's Bait before the switch to selling lotto synch... and that ended up getting nowhere with my own experiment...

I'm apparently not psychic either, so there's another idea off the list. I possess no precognitive abilities whatsoever...

Neural networks for pattern classification are always promising, but only because I don't fully understand them... When I do, I am sure that's another bust....

the latest glimmer of hope is pre-loading my spreadsheet.... setting up all the stats with everything for the next draw but the actual results (because they wouldn't be picked yet)... this changes my one-shot number, sometimes considerably.... so far it caught $28 on PB and $7 on Match6 (yes, I thought I was done playing that game too, but had to try the new pick technique), but pb went cold last night, I have also added the cash5, as this system seems to pick 2 every other day to one every 3 days... so a full week isn't costing the full $7.

one definition I found interesting...

Insanity

To keep doing the same things and expect different results.

Are we all nuts? we need some new ideas... I KNOW I am an idiot, it says so on the back of my Green Day fan club shirt... I can run with new concepts, I just can't come up with them...

any new ideas out there?

anywhere?

anyone?

anyone?

Bueller?  Bueller?

Matched 3 on PB with the powerplay of 4 = $28 on a $2 bet... sooooo close to $100 (or $400, actually) off by 1 on the PB...

Just added the cash5 for PA, posted LT, ST and Final Composite picks to predictions for tonight...

time will tell... also have a pick for powerball but not posted...

on paper, I had 2 out-of-position hits on match6... still can't justify wasting the money on that game...

Since C5 is under 600k, I will track it on paper until the jackpot climbs a bit....