hypersoniq's Blog

# 20, called 2 weeks in a row by my one-shot system... finally comes in!

no white ball match for me, but $3 x powerplay of 4 = $12... or 3 more weeks of "free" play... woo hoo!

What is it that Lottery Players want in a system? Some are happy with narrowing a field of numbers by about 1/2 and wheeling the results... Others want a system that generates fewer lines... bottom line is everyone wants to win... Although I have dabbled in trapping, my overall goal remains the same... One Shot, One Kill... a system that generates just one pick, win-or-lose. That system I have, but it loses more than wins... To that end I will use this entry to remind myself of what it is I am after...

The Goal: To develop a system that incorporates draw history (both long term profile and short term trends) to generate the most likely set of results for the next drawing... ONE LINE... that pernorms better than the state's QP's over a pre-determined timeframe... that should WIN more than is invested in a reasonable amount of time...

Steps I have taken:

   1. I have developed a system that takes the 12 picks I used to play every draw and uses a weighting system borrowed from Artificial Neural Networks to give precedence to better pernorming components to narrow the field down to just ONE best pick.

   2. Probably the biggest personal step of all, I have disciplined myself to only play ONE ticket per draw, regardless of the jackpot size. I now spend in one week less than half of what I would spend on one draw. That's a good thing in and of itself... It is just a game with ridiculous odds, and the fun gets diminished when checking a pile of losing tickets vs. checking your one ticket... I have done both and although I miss the better chance for lower tier prizes afforded by multiple tickets, in the end the good outweighs the bad. Since dropping Match6, I spend $4 a week on powerball (2 draws @$2, one line + power play) where I would easily drop $10 or even $20 on one PB draw before (without powerplay). I even paper test system changes without playing both tickets... Without having this mindset, a one shot system would be impossible, not that I am not tempted to fork over more green at a high JP, I just don't anymore. ;-)

   3. I had tested this system for one month by buying a quick pick along with my ticket, week after week my system was closer to the results than the QP was... there was not even one time where the QP did better.

   4. I continually look for ways to improve the overall accuracy of the pick. I have delta data since I started with the system to see if any trends develop in how far I was off... so far there are no definite trends.

Steps I need to take:

   1. Incorporate proper backtest normulae. My results are just typed, I can't retroactively change the system and see what the ripple effect would be like I can with the components.

   2. Seek higher accuracy.

   3. Shake the rust off of my VB programming skills, I have become far too comfortable in excel... I don't even use access anymore.... I need to incorporate the other tools before I forget how to use them, not much call for a DBA on a machine shop floor...

   4. WIN. I don't want to be the last person in PA who hasn't won a major Powerball jackpot...

Summary:  I have the plan for what to do IF I ever win, I have a system capapble of generating just one pick and the ability to stick to just playing that one pick... Things are going good with the job, things were always good at home... If I never win, I still can't complain about life, it's what you make of it. I am not even remotely wealthy, but I don't need to win.... I WANT to win, I want to beat the system, and I want to do it with one ticket... that is my Quest... It's David (Me, actually it's John, but i digress...) vs. Goliath (THe M.U.S.L.) and I'm ready to "rock".

As long as they are dangling millions up for grabs, I'll have my ticket in the mix... Let them throw their spikes and other statistical anomalies, with one ticket, I know my odds... I am still playing for "free" on that $28 hit a few weeks ago...

wow, one-shot in practice has brought back some fun to the game for me... I already have my pick for wednesday... so to the MUSL...

Game ON...

Bring it!

This spike had a wider gap (24) than draw#199 (20) and draw# 195 (11) ... that's 3 high spikes in 8 drawings! The last 2 high spikes had high Powerballs, this time it was a 9... go figure...

my ticket of 04-11-28-32-47  +20  wasn't even close... results were 25-34-36-46-49  +09, leaving a delta of +21/+23/+8/+14/+2 PB -11. Not a good draw for me.

My similarly computed Cash5 system is doing a bit better, since I only play when the jackpot rolls... so far each play got me my $1 back... so it has basically been free so far...

I don't play the Match6 anymore, but still track it... I would have picked 3/6 in one shot if I played friday... just my luck... the one I don't play comes in a winner. I only update my cash5 sheet after a rollover because I don't want to know if it would have hit on low JP draws ;-) ignorance is bliss, or so they say.

There must be a better way...

My pick for the PB number is 20.

My system components rarely agree on one number, the last time they did, they were right with #35... here's hoping....

The last new idea thrown out that I had any real fun with was Guru's Bait before the switch to selling lotto synch... and that ended up getting nowhere with my own experiment...

I'm apparently not psychic either, so there's another idea off the list. I possess no precognitive abilities whatsoever...

Neural networks for pattern classification are always promising, but only because I don't fully understand them... When I do, I am sure that's another bust....

the latest glimmer of hope is pre-loading my spreadsheet.... setting up all the stats with everything for the next draw but the actual results (because they wouldn't be picked yet)... this changes my one-shot number, sometimes considerably.... so far it caught $28 on PB and $7 on Match6 (yes, I thought I was done playing that game too, but had to try the new pick technique), but pb went cold last night, I have also added the cash5, as this system seems to pick 2 every other day to one every 3 days... so a full week isn't costing the full $7.

one definition I found interesting...

Insanity

To keep doing the same things and expect different results.

Are we all nuts? we need some new ideas... I KNOW I am an idiot, it says so on the back of my Green Day fan club shirt... I can run with new concepts, I just can't come up with them...

any new ideas out there?

anywhere?

anyone?

anyone?

Bueller?  Bueller?

Matched 3 on PB with the powerplay of 4 = $28 on a $2 bet... sooooo close to $100 (or $400, actually) off by 1 on the PB...

Just added the cash5 for PA, posted LT, ST and Final Composite picks to predictions for tonight...

time will tell... also have a pick for powerball but not posted...

on paper, I had 2 out-of-position hits on match6... still can't justify wasting the money on that game...

Since C5 is under 600k, I will track it on paper until the jackpot climbs a bit....

Wednesday PB numbers had 30 and 32, in posititions 2 and 3 (1-30-32-37-50 +19)... my ticket had 30 and 32, in positions 3 and 4 (4-16-30-32-44 +24).

naturally, that pays nothing... I wonder if I should apply this system to the PA Cash5, where matching 2 wins your $1 back?

Base Number, a simple concept...

Rather than starting with the last draw or from nothing to track lottery results, start with a "base" number that has some statistical significance... such as the MODE or the MEDIAN... Each draw, measure the difference from the results to this base number and seek patterns and trends in the (now negative nad positive) delta data...

I think that with my error correction mask, I made this concept harder in my own sheets than it needs to be... I might have to get back to the basics.... no hindsight tampering with the data... that's where 99% of all errors come from... at least in my attempts.

base numbers are easy to backtest in excel... go positionally for all games, including pick3/4 types.

Paper play and backtesting are free, I will have at it once again... back when I kept things simpler is when I got my only 100.00 win on PB...

Just finished updating my old pb sheets and graphs, some as old as 6/2/04... cutting what was duplicated elsewhere and making sure the numbers are right.

boooooorrrrriiiinnnngggggg......

results less than stellar for the one pick

-4, -2, -4, +5, -3 and a whopping -27 for PB...

3 of my "furbabies" are internet celebrities! THey are helping to advertise for a water bottle that are good for dogs that would otherwise get sloppy faces from a dish... They are Shih-Tzu, 100% purebred AKC bundles of fun!

introducing Pom-Pom, Pebbles and Teddy! (and my kitchen wall...)

I might try to make up a profiling only sheet for the powerball... containing nothing but gross filter data... even/odd, decades, and a few others. perhaps a profile combined with the other pick from stats could help steer things in a better direction...

I was 2 off for the first 2 numbers ,the rest was a disaster (off by 12 to 19 in each position!)

what is most disappointing is that I am no closer now to predicting the powerball numbers than I was when I first started playing the powerball... I am still left with more questions than answers...

Maybe it's time to go back to a clean sheet... start by establishing general guidelines...

who knows...

Paycheck... that ben affleck/uma thurmann movie... cool ending!

I have not yet visualized anything, but as an added experiment, I took my visual aid page and plugged in the numbers generated by my other system...

see how it goes wednesday ;-)