hypersoniq's Blog

Ahh the challenges of designing a database.

After much thinking and a quick review of the "Designing a database" book I used to study for my MCDBA, I have come to the realization that my entire suite of excel workbooks can be reduced to 2 tables and a few carefully crafted queries... Added bonuses,

1) new filters can be added as easily as dropping in a new query.

2) once complete, a few minor changes can be made to convert to any game

3) I can backtest by simply selecting certain date ranges

I have to refresh my memory on the use of Access forms to make it feel more like an app than a db. but at least I have a plan now.

look out MUSL ;-)

The massive collection of worksheets and workbooks now occupying my "PROfile" folder will eventually become an Access Database App. By converting the summary sheets into queries, I will finally get the power to backtest using date ranges (or draw numbers).

Updating the sheets is already a formidable challenge, but I am essentially looking at an exploded database with multiple queries... I didn't know what I wanted from Access before, but it's all becoming clearer now...

There was good in the first test...

Direction... 5 of 6 went in the indicated directions

Divisibility... 5 of 6 went the indicated way (Even or Odd)

HEXade Groupings... 3 of 6 went where the clusters indicated

Next Step...

Time to add follower ranges... This will be one decent eliminator for some numbers and useless for others.

Also time to make a color coded "elimination sheet"

marking downn what reasons numbers were eliminated. I will keep a workbook full of such sheets to go back and review. Some may be eliminated on more than one filter... I should note this

Also time to continue the PROfiling... Including consistent o/e mixes and the long saught after (by me at least) "out of position repeat" counter. Most of this will not be ready for saturday, but I am giving myself no deadlines, only want one win... ;-)

The complexity of this "suite" of spreadsheets is daunting, but the ease of readability has improved 100 fold over prior attempts. Some stats update from multiple workbooks (usually I use multi-sheet formulas).

Using percentages as confidence indicators is great when deciding what to play, but even better at deciding what NOT to play, hopefully accuracy will get better over time.

Finally done sheets for red ball and the 5 white balls...

Now picks can be made from the data by filling in a "quiz" for each number.

Side-by-side, decisions can be made...

I must modify the Failure analysis form to include the white balls.

Here are the questions I fill in for each number...

Last number Drawn
Expected Direction (Higher/Lower/Repeat)
Confidence Index
Hot Follower
Hot Follower Count
Hot Cluster (HEXades)
Cluster Count Composite
Cluster Count LOW
Cluster Count MED
Cluster Count HI
Frequency of drawn number
Follows Raw Odds? (Y/N)
Odd/Even Count
Lower Numbers
Higher Numbers
Observed Higher
Observed Lower
Observed Repeats
Hot HEXade Subdivision ODD
Hot HEXade Subdivision EVEN

Once they are all side by side, I can make a more informed decision. Doesn't always work out (except for direction which is right about 75% of the time), but it IS the basis for all current work. I updated my sheets and got a pick within 1 hour. (a personal record considering how long it took before).

Still can't get down to just one line to play tho, but since I am getting about 10WB/2PB I think I'll get into the "Powerball Challenge" for wed.

Not waiting for Beta, this alpha system's goin for a LIVE fire test next draw!

Red Ball #29 is my guess.

here's how I arrived at it...

the "magic ratio" seems to be 2 to 1

Direction... in the 25 appearances of #15, the next powerball was higher 16 times and lower 8 times. It never repeated. (2 to 1 Higher)

Divisibility... my category name for odd/even. the 24 followers so far produced 16 odd and 8 even, advantage ODD (2 to 1)

the less than 2 to 1 events leading up to my pick are as follows...

HEXade Clustering... the highest number of followers of 15 end up in Hx5 (25 to 30)

based on that, we have a choice of 25,27 and 29

the oddball event is a "palindrome" potential in the follower list.

following the 15 in the last 4 appearances are 29,5,23,5,??

palindromes are all over the PB data, some in even longer chains than 5.

what I ignored...

"Hot Follower" the number 39 followed 15 3 times (12%)

Hot Follower has proven to be an unreliable indicator. but so has the HEXade cluster... but Hx5 has a higher percentage of hits than hot follower.

I bought one ticket for the draw, filled in the QP box AND 29 as PB so I have a "Q5" ticket. In 5 tries, the direction almost always holds out, the divisibility is right behind it. last week I caught 1+1,if I catch 0+1 or better this week, I will expand this to the sort order white balls (then eventually to draw order) for wed. draw.

good luck all :-)

Got 1 1/2 more workbooks in excel to complete the full first draft of PROfile.

This has got to be the most massive excel project I have ever undertaken. There are, for example, one worksheet for each powerball number, plus 3 additional sheets including the finally fully automated summary sheet.

All this one does is present data, it makes no guesses... beauty is that it seems applicable to any game. If PB tests go ok, I might just create one for the PA cash5.

Backtesting so far is non existent, but once the whole process is worked out, then it should be at least do-able. I have learned a great deal about the powerball data just in the creation of the excel files... The logging system for recording what worked or didn't is so far the best byproduct.

Cashing in a 1+1 PB winner today, hopefully much more to come.

As I delve back into Excel system creation, I am trying to get better results than the dozens of previous attempts by keeping track of more details. Thistime I am using dated Post-Draw notes to get in depth as to where things went right and wrong. Mostly it's a way to capture a copy of ideas before I forget them.

Below is my first entry for the PROfile Powerball system I am working on...

PRO-file Predictive Decision System
Failure Analysis for 2/7/2007 (wed.) Powerball

Drawn Red Ball = 10 (21st appearance)
Previous Drawn Ball = 37 (34th appearance)

Product of Decision Process = 29

What worked...

1) Direction (Higher/Lower/Repeat)

The Confidence Index of a follower of 37 being lower than 37
was 83. LOWER was chosen and the drawn ball was indeed lower.

what didn't work...

1.) Divisibility (Odd/Even)

There were 21 followers that were odd
and 13 followers that were even.
This was not an accurate aid in elimination.
Could D.O.W. facor in the distribution of O/E?

2.) Range (HxN L/M/H)

Stong apparent indicators excluded the HEXade containing the
right number (10), It could be possible that the system may
be trying to create balance rather than clear-cut indicators...

3.) Follower Frequency

Just because the 29 followed the 37 more than any other number, did

NOT make it reliable as a predictor.

Follow Up and Corrective Action Plan
A). Take apparent trends with a grain of salt. Perhaps a confidence

index is required for each possible follower number? or for each metric...

B). Incorporate Deltas (Drawn/Follower, Precursor/Drawn,

Precursor/Follower). Maybe this can create data that can be

manipulated with different tools (Trigonometry perhaps?)

C.) Continue to automate the PROfile sheet, This file needs to be

complete BEFORE even attempting to expand to the white balls!

D.) Attempt what works for Saturday's guess. PB 10 only has a Confidence Index of 58 to go higher... (Confidence Index Ranges from 24 to 98)

E.) Perhaps a "Backup" pick of the deviant data path (e.g. goes low

when expected to go high) might be in order later in the live trials.

I have kept track of decades in the PB for some time, the data is just as wild as the draw data.

I decided to group the PB data into full matrices...

the powerball numbers 1-42 fit into a 6x7 grid I call HEXades (Groups of 6)

Hx1 = 01,02,03,04,05,06

...

Hx7 = 37,38,39,40,41,42

The white Balls fit nicely in a 5x11 grid I call PENTades (Groups of 5)

Pn1 = 01,02,03,04,05

...

Pn11 = 51,52,53,54,55

So far this yields no great truths or hidden connections, but I'm glad to be back into working a system out.

Since I'm working right now on just the red balls, the 6x7 grid can be nicely broken down further by Low Medium and High

Hx1 Low = 01,02

Hx1 Medium = 03,04

Hx1 High = 05,06

Each subdivision yields one even and one odd number. Still looking for some way to apply this info...

Before moving in a positive direction with my excel work against the PB, I gotta let out the negativity, so here goes...

First, let's start on the same page, with the simplest of all games (nice round numbers), the straight pick 3. (not worth the time to get into box play)

In pick 3, you are playing 3 sequential games of 1:10, you MUST match all 3 games correctly to have a straight hit.

odds of first correct ball = 1:10

odds of also selecting the second correct ball = 1:100 (or 10 possible first game combos times 10 possible second game combos)

odds of ALSO selecting the third correct ball = 1:1,000 (10x10x10)

the range is 0-9 for each game, 000 to 999 for the entire process. To further prove the math I'm about to lay down, most serious pick 3 players know there are 720 combos that contain NO doubles or triples... the derivation is to imagine 10 balls and they pick 3 of them

first ball 1:10

2nd ball 1:9 (one ball is gone)

3rd ball 1:8 (two balls are gone)

10 x 9 = 90,  90 * 8 = 720

All in agreement so far?

now let's look at what the MUSL advertises as the odds for a powerball jackpot win... 1:146,107,962    ... and it's flat out wrong. False on purpose? who knows.  NOW let's do the actual math...

the game starts with one group of 55 white balls and one group of 42 red balls. the odds of matching the first number...

1:55  simple enough. on to two numbers

55x54= 1:2,970 (55 for the first ball, then 54 remain) 

three numbers (a prize they claim has odds of 1:290) 55x54x53 = 1:157,410

four numbers (they say 1:14,254 ... I say) 55x54x53x52 = 1:8,185,320

five numbers 55x54x53x52x51 = 1:417,451,320 (wait, it gets better...)

odds of winning the powerball jackpot, 55x54x53x52x51x42 =

1:17,532,955,440

you read correctly, that is 17 BILLION to one!!! Makes that 15 million minimum look a bit low, yes?

you may slice/dice/analyze this as you see fit... but it's true.

you start with 55 balls, the first one could be any of the 55... the second could be any of the 54 remaining...

This is what we're all up against.... and I STILL accept the challenge!

the bright side is the 42:1 odds of matching a red ball... that is where I choose to begin anew. Also, all 17 billion are not unique, many sets contain the same numbers. BUT trying to create a system that uses draw order data does require you realize the TRUE odds.

As I mentioned last post, I am right now only concentrating on the 1:42 red ball in PB. I am working on an excel file called PROfile that presents several bits of info...

1. RAW odds

for example, the number 5, RAW data would indicate that there are 4 numbers lower, 1 repeat, and 37 higher. using percentages, you can see raw odds of the next number drawn being higher/lower (5 favors higher)

2. Observed history

same scenario, only using observed history.

3. Confidence index

which is simply #1 * #2

4. Binary odd/even data

what has been the count of odd vs. even followers

and finally

6. HEXades

more on that later...

I pretty much dropped off the lotto prediction software game last year when I lost BOTH hard drives in my PC (one was just for backups) to a fried IDE controller card. 2k6 was a miserable year, lottery wise... stuck to playing one ticket with hardly any small hits.

I have since rebuilt my PB sheet and plan to go in some new directions.

My goal remains a one-line prediction... however the methods are getting way out there. 

brief rundown of the first one...

the periodic system...

synopsis: assign each drawn number to it's corresponding element on the periodic table and try to use some chemistry formulas to gain the next number.

So far: one excel sheet, 3 worksheets...

A: the full PB history back to 1997

B: the jackpot calculator (for motivational purposes only)

C: the conversion page

for instance, last night's draw

01-05-26-32-38 + 30  becomes

 H- B-Fe-Ge-Sr  + Zn

info kept includes the element's valence number and periodic family, also whether it is a nonmetal or transition metal... all done with Excel's LOOKUP() function. I'm hoping to possibly use lewis dot notation and valence info to unearth some hidden info... not convinced it has a chance, but nothing else has worked, so why not? at least I will be one who can say I have tried EVERYTHING ;-)

I have been sustaining the PB "habbit" with two QPs per draw, and will continue to do so until I have a single pick from some home brew system to replace one of the QPs. The nice part is that regardles off winnings, I know the maximum total cost of 2007 will be $416 (because I go for the PowerPlay, even less tho because I only play 2 QP's when the jackpot is over 40M). I've sworn off all other lottery games for good. I also spent much less in 2006.

It felt good to fire up excel once more, gotta shake off the rust! outside of flaky systems, I have goals in mind for excel this year, including finding matches regardless of position and more accurate backtesting statistics. I will set some kind of backtest goal before replacing one of the QPs, much higher than in the past. Also I will be working separately on JUST THE POWERBALL. Separate sheets, formulae, programs etc... My programmer's new years resolution is to work on that pesky red ball. They pick ONE from 42, why is it so hard just to pick that one? I hope to answer that question. the pb only progs have priority #1 for my limited time behind the keyboard.

so what are you planning this year? 

I basically suck at picking numbers... latest PB challenge I entered 15 numbers, not a match...

for powerball I had a 13 and 15, 14 comes up grr..............

my betting strategy does keep the wallet happy tho, 1 ticket per $100,000,000

I spent $3 for last night (I gave up the powerplay unless it can be paid for by the previous draw's winnings, and I am in what can best be described as a "dry spell" )

nothing seems to be working for me, I am tempted to just pick up 3 QPs for wed. I think I will...

should be interesting for a winner faced with 2 options

1. Annuity: after tax consists of 30 payments of $3,900,000 they will deduct the 27% and the winner will need to pay $480,000 each year to hit the current tax rate (will go up as the top tax rate goes up)

2. Cash: after tax one-time payment of $56,680,000 (you owe $6,976,000 during the next year in taxes and would have $56,680,000 left free and clear)

the end value of the annuity depends entirely on the tax rate, could fluctuate but will probably never dip below the current 35% (40%+ next liberal president).

If you choose the cash, where do you put it? it is a one-time wire transfer... FDIC insurance is 100k per account PER FINANCIAL INSTITUTION (100 savings accounts at the same bank don't protect you)... highest progra I have ever seen for FDIC protection is a CD-ARS account but that has a cap of $20,000,000...

wonder if that is by s.s.n. ? then a married couple could have 2 accounts at 2 different banks and get 40 million of insurance... putting the balance (16 million) into investments/real estate/municipal funds/trusts for the kids... so many options, too easy to be taken advantage of... I would definitely opt for at least one account in the CDARS format... ideally it will work by s.s.n. then I could have one, the mrs. and each of the 3 kids can have 4 mill (the trust funds) all totally protected by FDIC insurance.... sounds like a definite conversation starter if I ever need to consult a financial planner...

ah, yes but there remains that pesky detail of actually winning...

but I am at least aware of some of my options if I do... come on MUSL, let me have a shot at solving those type of problems...

there appears to be no one formula for solving problems that we need to solve. there are, however different approaches to doing it.

1,2,3,4,?,6

of course it's 5, and to describe the relationship is

n+1

for n+5 with a start number of 10 we have

5,10,15,20,25,30

-------------------------------

for THE FOLLOWING

1,4,10,22,90,182

(n+1)x2

--------------------------------

I am looking at trying something on the powerball (just the red one, not the white 5 for now)involving backsolving an equation thatthe data can fit into... I can't see anyother way around it. I have googled for days (weeks even) and according to mathematics as we know it, there is no general formula for this type of thing. I am going to try some different things out including interpolation (to find midpoints in draw data) and then extrapolation (to find the next draw basedonresultsfrom interpolation).

I'm otherwise out of ideas again, and I hate being out of ideas with a PB jackpot over 100M

sorry for anyone playing along, but I am no longer developing or updating any of the systems I have been working on and sharing until I go back to basics and get concrete steps defined for the process of prediction.

website will stay up, sheets there now will remain... but I am tired of spending time crunching numbers with no idea how to really interpret the results. I'm even going back to QP only for PB...

hopefully I can share a newer system soon with some real power behind it (probably not, but you never know)