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# \$1.5 BILLION: Wednesday Powerball record jackpot still rising

Topic closed. 282 replies. Last post 6 years ago by sirbrad.

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According to the Texas website, the lottery now is assuming that they will generate \$1.141B in revenue, a significant amount of revenue for the member states even when divided among all of them.    The real message of the most recent rollover, where approximately \$950M in in revenue was generated, producing 475M tickets, should have been that the lottery is now pretty nearly impossible to win, but many people don't care since the sentence includes "nearly."

It is now also nearly impossible to cover the entire field, although the odds of yet another rollover are decreasing.

The Poisoon distribution probabilities of various numbers of winners, assuming a completely randomized ticket selection, and that 1.141B in revenue is generated, and thus 570M tickets are sold, are as follows:

 k, number of winners p(m,k) 0 13.13% 1 26.65% 2 27.06% 3 18.32% 4 9.30% 5 3.78% 6 1.28% 7 0.37% 8 0.09% 9 0.02%

The pretax expectation value is now a robust 1.11, meaning that for the first time since this all began, a Powerball ticket is what can be considered a "good bet."

Dream on, but since the probability that you will really win the whole thing is vanishingly small, don't quit your day job.

Walt Hickey at FiveThirtyEight ran a couple of models. One, similar to yours, has 554m tickets sold and an 85% chance of at least one winner. The other has 1.2b sold and a 98% chance of at least one winner. According to the lower model, there's a natural ceiling at about 600m tickets sold -- there's only so many people willing to put money into the lottery no matter how big it gets. But there's so little data on jackpots this size, who knows?

He says it's not a good bet, though, because his expected value model includes federal taxes. Return of \$1.32 on a \$2 ticket.

 shaft1998New MemberMemphis, TNUnited StatesMember #171832January 12, 20162 PostsOffline January 12, 2016, 11:31 pmIt might approach 2 billion. The winner of this jackpot is not going to be just one person, but several. It's too big for one person to win. I would like to be one of the several
 bigboy90000AlabamaUnited StatesMember #125059March 24, 2012210 PostsOffline January 12, 2016, 11:44 pmPeople out here buying \$800 worth of tickets at a time my God.
 Coin Toss100Zeta Reticuli Star SystemUnited StatesMember #30469January 17, 200611629 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 12:23 amYou can certainly tell everyone is 'getting in the act'. I saw a guy today looking at the play slips and then he asked the clerk, "Which one is Powerball?"Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners. There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
 GroppoUnited StatesMember #162624January 7, 2015780 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 12:41 amQuote: Originally posted by shaft1998 on January 12, 2016It might approach 2 billion. The winner of this jackpot is not going to be just one person, but several. It's too big for one person to win. I would like to be one of the several.       That Shaft is one bad motha. . .SHUTCHO MOUF         I'm just talking about the Shaft.. . . .We can dig it.
 GroppoUnited StatesMember #162624January 7, 2015780 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 12:47 am. That's complete insanity.
 RedStangNYUnited StatesMember #121955January 21, 20123169 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 1:03 amQuote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on January 13, 2016You can certainly tell everyone is 'getting in the act'. I saw a guy today looking at the play slips and then he asked the clerk, "Which one is Powerball?"Yup. When it was it was 900mill i could name 15 people that wouldn't play. Now that's down to 3.
 AbsolutelyFunUnited StatesMember #171268January 5, 2016105 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 3:31 amQuote: Originally posted by RedStang on January 13, 2016Yup. When it was it was 900mill i could name 15 people that wouldn't play. Now that's down to 3.Human Nature!
 sirbradPAUnited StatesMember #22982October 6, 20052229 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 3:34 amFunny how so many only focus on the potentially negative and taxes, even though the chances of of things happening is minuscule. Not to mention you should already have more money than you will ever need after  a year and on anyway unless you are a complete idiot.  Chances are you will get every payment as it is shown with a 5% increase every year. I don't give a crap about the taxes, I am thinking about how much money I will have after them regardless of what method I take. The PB is not going to go bankrupt, look how much money it makes and how long it has been going on. So this kind of obsessive negative thinking is totally necessary. People are more worried about the taxes than the HUGE principle left. The amount is just so high that it is warping people's minds. But most likely everything will be fine, REALLY fine.
 whiteballzNutley, New JerseyUnited StatesMember #131052August 1, 2012901 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 4:53 amQuote: Originally posted by Groppo on January 13, 2016. That's complete insanity.That is Powerball!!!.
 whiteballzNutley, New JerseyUnited StatesMember #131052August 1, 2012901 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 4:53 amQuote: Originally posted by AbsolutelyFun on January 13, 2016Human Nature!Yup..
 sirbradPAUnited StatesMember #22982October 6, 20052229 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 5:12 amYou know I have never been afraid of a lottery jackpot before, but this one scares me...and I like it.  Variation to a quote from Under Siege 2 Penn: [to Sarah Ryback] You know I have never been afraid of anybody. But that uncle of yours scares me... and I like it.
 Bleudog101SimpsonvilleUnited StatesMember #163182January 22, 20152791 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 5:14 amQuote: Originally posted by sirbrad on January 13, 2016Funny how so many only focus on the potentially negative and taxes, even though the chances of of things happening is minuscule. Not to mention you should already have more money than you will ever need after  a year and on anyway unless you are a complete idiot.  Chances are you will get every payment as it is shown with a 5% increase every year. I don't give a crap about the taxes, I am thinking about how much money I will have after them regardless of what method I take. The PB is not going to go bankrupt, look how much money it makes and how long it has been going on. So this kind of obsessive negative thinking is totally necessary. People are more worried about the taxes than the HUGE principle left. The amount is just so high that it is warping people's minds. But most likely everything will be fine, REALLY fine.Couldn't be any better written.  Folks need to think of the positives.  Taxes are inevitable no matter what, so get over it.  Do you complain about the work taxes?  I never do. Mea Culpa with Powerball since I commented long ago that it takes too long with the new matrix for the jackpots to climb.  Clearly I was wrong.
 sirbradPAUnited StatesMember #22982October 6, 20052229 PostsOffline January 13, 2016, 5:24 amQuote: Originally posted by Bleudog101 on January 13, 2016Couldn't be any better written.  Folks need to think of the positives.  Taxes are inevitable no matter what, so get over it.  Do you complain about the work taxes?  I never do. Mea Culpa with Powerball since I commented long ago that it takes too long with the new matrix for the jackpots to climb.  Clearly I was wrong.Yeah that is the greed factor of most, the higher it gets the more people want. They sit on here all day and night arguing how to avoid taxes and how horrible it i will be to win. I think about it what an opportunity of a lifetime I will have, and how much money I will have after taxes that I still will never spend. If they are that worried about it and paying taxes they should not even bother playing. Yet we know they are. With that much money taxes and investing is a non-issue as you should never come close to spending the principle even unless you REALLY mess up. As an avid studier of the law of attraction for a very long time now, I focus on the positives and the great things that kind of money will do for me. If you focus on nothing but fear, hardships, taxes etc chances are you will attract all those issues even more so. You may not even win at all then because in your mind you don't really want to anyway because of your preconceived notions. You don't know what will happen until you experience it, and if you are smart and careful you should be very happy for a very long time.