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Lottery Prediction by Recurrence Analysis

Topic closed. 170 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Raven62.

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CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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Posted: September 9, 2005, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

I have a couple of questions. If I input my draws, 1-500, new to old and I predict from 501-510. Are the numbers I get are they for draws 501 thru 510, or are they for the next draw? My input is descending.

Carbob

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    Posted: September 9, 2005, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

    Carbob: I have a couple of questions. If I input my draws, 1-500, new to old and I predict from 501-510. Are the numbers I get are they for draws 501 thru 510, or are they for the next draw? My input is descending.

    The data in the input file should be arranged from the oldest to the newest results. That is, record 1 for the oldest draw, record 500 for the newest draw. It's also important that the last record really reflects the last known draw. That's because to make a prediction, VRA uses the current "state" as a point of reference, and looks for the similar states in the past. The resulting prediction, dependng on the model, is a regression through all the similar states in the past. If you are using the dataset where the last record reflects some data 100 draws ago, and try to predict for tomorrow, all you'll get is the prediction for the draw that occured 99 draws ago.  Think about something very deterministic, such as the motion of a second hand on the clock. Even if you didn't know how the clock works, it would not take you long to realize that if the second hand is at 22, the next point will be 23, and that would indeed be a good prediction. But to make the meaningful prediction about the second hand in the future, you must know where it is now. If someone showed you a broken watch whose second hand is motionless at 22, you would still make a prediction of "23" for the next moment, and it would still be a perfect prediction... for the event that that has already occured.  It's the same with VRA when it comes to predicting: unlike some other programs which probably use some combinatorics to figure the "good" and the "bad" numbers, VRA constructs the current state (phase) using the last known results. Subsequently, it searches the past history to find similar states (close neighbors in the statistical terminology). What happened immdeiately after those states makes the basis for the next prediction, using various averaging and smoothing techniques which you control with your model parameters. In other words, the entire premise (for all the models in VRA) is that if event X was followed by event Y in the past, and we are currently observing event Z which is similar to event X, then something similar to Y will happen tomorrow. If you understand that concept, you understand VRA.

    valelli: nemesys can you help, ive got several  excel worksheets that ive been using with vra, and for some unknown reason it has stopped working, the vra programme starts up ok, but when i go to open a signal (ie one of my sheets) it closes down the vra programme, its only just started doing this, is there something wrong somewhere, and before anyone shouts virus, ive excluded that already, any thoughts

    I recently discovered a bug that prevents VRA from loading some Excel files. To get around it, use a "Save As" option in Excel and specify a CSV (comma-separated values) format. That will save the data file in a simple text file which will make it easier for VRA to read. I'll fix that problem in one of the next VRA releases.  Additionally, the entire data set must be arranged as a single column of numbers. VRA will probably load multiple columns as well, but it will treat it as a single series (column) anyway.

    FrankieH: Do you have a suggestion for the settings of "Neighbors" and "Fixed Size"? My settings are set for Neighbors (1) and Fixed Size (25).

    The "Number of Neighbors" parameter controls the smoothness of the fit. When the value is large, VRA will include the neighbors that are relatively far from the current state. In the extreme case, it will include all neighbors in the past. When the value is small, VRA will only include the very close neighbors.  To put it more precisely in the statistical terms, the "Number of Neighbors" parameter controls the balance (or trade off) between variance and bias. With the large values of this parameter, the fit will be smooth (because it averages over many points), but it may deteriorate to predicting just the same number all the time. With the small values, the fit will look like a zig-zag trying to fit more closely, but you may be way off on many points. There is no standard scientific way to find the best value. The standard recipie is: "Let the data choose it".

    The "Fixed Size" option lets you choose the maximum separation between the neighbors, instead of specifying the number of neighbors directly. The end result is similar: effectively, you are controllong how many neighbors you "admit" to the neighborhood.

    LANTERN: It seems to me that the software needs to be optimized for lottery predictions and then maybe it would be the new "Holy Grail" of prediction software. 

    Thanks for the feedback and participation to everyone. I'd like to restate for the record that I hold very little hope that VRA can be of any value when it comes to predicting the lottery results, or any other results of unpredictable nature. In fact, I'll make it my purpose to work against you guys and demonstrate with VRA that the predictions that it generates are no better than a random guess. By it's nature VRA is just as good at showing that something is random as it is at showing that something is not random. Let's see who wins. Smile

    Vick: didn't do good tonight but yesterday's was a firecracker.:
    result  nearest neighbour                                 
     5 / 20  17-4 - % of mean size max = 500 3 7 10 13 17 20 24 27 30 34 37 41 44 48 50 54 57 61 64 67
    results here:
    http://lottery.sympatico.msn.ca/cgi-bin/english?job=show_results&lottery=on_daily_keno

    I know very little about the lottery, so can you translate the term "firecracker" into the money terms? That is, how much would you win if you used VRA to play that draw?

    paurths: The overall result of the test was that each time i checked with a real draw, after creating about 300 predictions (ouch, my fingers and eyes!!!), i had all six of the nbrs at least a dozen times. Trouble is that it not once repeated whit the same dimension and delay.
    Finally i gave up on testing b/c it was way too time consuming.

    I feel your pain, and for the large part, it's there because VRA is really not meant for lottery prediction, although I am thankful to Nemesys and others for popularizing it here. I'll consider how to make it easier for you, the lotto guys.

    Nemesys: The best values for dimension seem to be 21 or 22

    That seems way too high to me. There is that thing called "the curse of dimensionality", which is saying that the larger the dimension, the larger the data set you need to fill that hyper space with enough points. Here is what it means in more intuitive terms: take a dozen of pennies and arange them randomly along a straight line of 20 inches long. Now, point your finger anywhere on that like, and you are likely to touch a penny. Now, arange them randomly anywhere in the square of  dimension 20x20 inches, and point your finger anywhere -- you are much less likely to hit a penny. Now do the same in the cube of dimension 20x20x20, and you are even less likely to find a penny. And so it goes on, making it exponensially less likely to find the neighbors in the hyperspace of ever increasing dimension.  For the hyperspace of dimension 20, you would need billions of data points in your data set to find a meaningful number of close neighbors. Thus the curse: if you are studying the system which lives in a high-dimensional space (that is, the system driven by a large number of independent variables), you'll probably never find out how it works, because you would need a data set whose size is so large that it'll take you the age of the Universe just to gather the data.

     

      paurths's avatar - underground
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      Posted: September 9, 2005, 7:46 pm - IP Logged

      nonlinear: I feel your pain, and for the large part, it's there because VRA is really not meant for lottery prediction, although I am thankful to Nemesys and others for popularizing it here. I'll consider how to make it easier for you, the lotto guys.

      ... just throw in some pathintegralsn perhaps a little monte-carlo, let it calculate for hours & hours, predicting most likely futures on "knowledge" of parameters it has used to create possible pasts that actually got real close to "reality" and we might get somewhere. As long as it gets 3 out of 6 every prediction you will be our hero from now till eternity, at least, if that future is predictable... Wink

      I wish i would have enough knowledge about that subject... but the formula's are giving me a migraine just by looking at them these days...

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        Posted: September 9, 2005, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

        Vick: didn't do good tonight but yesterday's was a firecracker.:
        result  nearest neighbour                                 
         5 / 20  17-4 - % of mean size max = 500 3 7 10 13 17 20 24 27 30 34 37 41 44 48 50 54 57 61 64 67
        results here:
        http://lottery.sympatico.msn.ca/cgi-bin/english?job=show_results&lottery=on_daily_keno

        I know very little about the lottery, so can you translate the term "firecracker" into the money terms? That is, how much would you win if you used VRA to play that draw?

        -----------------------------------------------------------

         

        for that specific draw i had predicted 13 numbers with vra, it's all the time i had, and it hit for:

        9 / 13

         

        random said that 13 should on average always hit @ = 3.71428571428571 or 4 / 13 in a 20 / 70 keno game

         

        if i had wheeld those 13 numbers in my small wheel of 8 numbers it would have hit for 8/8 = which pays out $25,000 CND

        let's hope it can continue with the winning picks !

          retxx's avatar - mrthumbs
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          Posted: September 9, 2005, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

          nemesys can you actually post a screen showing probable numbers and where they would appear on the chart. thanks

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            Posted: September 9, 2005, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

            didn't too good tonight again in the keno.

             

            mabye that first time was a fluke ?

              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
              Tx
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              Posted: September 10, 2005, 2:32 am - IP Logged

              nonlinear: I feel your pain, and for the large part, it's there because VRA is really not meant for lottery prediction, although I am thankful to Nemesys and others for popularizing it here. I'll consider how to make it easier for you, the lotto guys.

              ... just throw in some pathintegralsn perhaps a little monte-carlo, let it calculate for hours & hours, predicting most likely futures on "knowledge" of parameters it has used to create possible pasts that actually got real close to "reality" and we might get somewhere. As long as it gets 3 out of 6 every prediction you will be our hero from now till eternity, at least, if that future is predictable... Wink

              I wish i would have enough knowledge about that subject... but the formula's are giving me a migraine just by looking at them these days...

              Eugene.

              I don't know how to say this, but maybe what paurths and some others need is a sort of macro that will automate certain needed VRA tasks maybe a sort of pre-processed script to be run by VRA a sort of way to automate certain needed VRA tasks, like maybe a linear series of predictions (or repetitive predictions) with progressive and automatic varied steps of dimention and or delay and or other variables or whatever is needed.

              In other words, the software should run or process pre-programmed scripts or sequences of it's settings and or variables and or controls, a sort of lottery front-end addition to the program.

              A sort of tasks programmer, tasks to be executed by the program, tasks scripts to be run by the program. A sort of (pre-programmed) tasks control director (front-end) to the program.

              I don't know if I have made myself understood or not.

              Good luck.

                NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
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                Posted: September 10, 2005, 3:16 am - IP Logged

                For the benefit of retxx (and anyone else interested) here's a screen shot of an actual prediction (for the EuroMillions draw):

                VRA example

                To explain: the numbers up to 574 are those drawn so far. The 573rd and 574th numbers are 3 and 6 (the 'lucky star' balls). Beyond that you have the prediction (575 to 581). This prediction was for the 9th of September. It gave 8, 12, 23, 40 and 50, with lucky stars 8 and 9. The actual result was 8, 12, 19, 31, 50, and 6, 7. So the prediction gave three out of the five main numbers. You read off your predictions from the vertical axis (labelled 'Actual & Predicted').

                Now, here's the rub. I had to hunt around for the values of dim and del to get those three numbers after the draw result - and this is the problem. The only way I know of finding the right values is to go over past results and compile a table of dims and dels, then choose those that give the best results. This is the main objection people have raised: having to cycle through dozens of dims and dels by hand. Sadly there is no other way to do it until the process is automated somehow.

                Although Eugene stated that high dimension values require data sets running to billions, sometimes - perversely - they are the values that work. At least delay values appear easier to arrive at.

                "God is subtle but He is not malicious." - Albert Einstein

                "In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - Alec Guinness, Star Wars Episode IV

                  LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                  Tx
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                  Posted: September 10, 2005, 3:34 am - IP Logged

                  Instead of the chart is there a way of getting numerical predicted values?

                  And yes, tasks such as those and others should be preprogrammed and automatic.

                  To be run at night while sleeping for example. And numbers instead of just graphs would be good also.

                  Perhaps somebody will code a  suitable programable keyboard macro that can be used with VRA to automate certain needed tasks.

                    NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
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                    Posted: September 10, 2005, 4:54 am - IP Logged

                    The shareware version of VRA allows you to save graphs but not files, the full version does. I don't mind using the graph, even though it's a bit harder on the eyes, although there is a zoom function: hold down the left mouse button and drag the cursor from top left to bottom right. To zoom out again drag the other way (bottom right to top left). Perhaps Eugene will automate some of the procedures, now that there is a greater demand for VRA.

                    "God is subtle but He is not malicious." - Albert Einstein

                    "In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - Alec Guinness, Star Wars Episode IV

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                      Posted: September 10, 2005, 6:53 am - IP Logged

                      thanks eugene, ive checked and my spreadsheets are all in one column, they were working until recently and then stopped, but i was still testing it, ive got to do some amendments to my computer, and then i will try it again saving them as csv files and see if that works, and would like to say i love the programme, although still a newbie with it, how long have you been producing programmes like these.

                        NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
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                        Posted: September 10, 2005, 8:11 am - IP Logged

                        I'll add a sub-page to my site detailing the mathematics I'm using, then people can play with the equations and perhaps make their own discoveries. I'll add an analysis of  EuroMillions too (the nights are drawing in and trawling through combinations of dimension and delay is a good way to kill time).

                        "God is subtle but He is not malicious." - Albert Einstein

                        "In my experience there's no such thing as luck." - Alec Guinness, Star Wars Episode IV

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                          Posted: September 10, 2005, 8:37 am - IP Logged

                          nemesys how about putting a predictions page on as well for forthcoming draws with the del and dim used we can then compare them to our own results.

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                            Posted: September 11, 2005, 12:51 am - IP Logged

                            i didn't play keno tonight because was playing the 649's, but using yesterday's numbers from my best parameters set, ie the same one that would have hit for $25,000 a few draws ago it would have hit 11 / 20 which is MUCH BETTER than random average of 6 / 20. A little wheel and some luck could have hit for some more money [note that in quebec if you hit 15 / 20 that's $1 MILLION win but we don't have that here in ontario but if you were to hit 15/20 your wheels would surely hit for large]. This was yesterday's set applied to today's Sept 10 results at:

                             

                             17-4 - % of mean size max = 50047101417202427303437404346505457616467




                             

                            results:

                            http://lottery.sympatico.msn.ca/cgi-bin/english?job=show_results&lottery=on_daily_keno

                             

                              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                              Tx
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                              Posted: September 11, 2005, 8:04 pm - IP Logged

                              It is very nice to have an alternative to "old" LottoSync, now we have a new "plaything".

                              It is better than Lottosync, because VRA can be used for any lottery games.

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