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Lottery Prediction by Recurrence Analysis

Topic closed. 170 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Raven62.

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Calgary
Canada
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December 7, 2004
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Posted: June 24, 2005, 4:33 pm - IP Logged

Tried the VRA software the other day with pick3 and was able to get 2 out of 3 with a number of settings.  Definately looks very promising.  I tried multiple predictions with different settings all of which had 2 of 3 numbers in them.  I had 8 different settings and got 7 different predictions but they were all very similar.

 

108

184

825

805

488

048

725

825

 

The actual number drawn next was 850.  If you chose the two most common number appearing, 8, and 5 then you had 2 numbers.  The 0 was also in there 3 times, which was tied with 2 and 4 with the next most hits.  With this information, predicting 2 numbers consistently and using all three of the next most hit numbers.  Let's see, that's 3 tickets for a $80 box hit, not bad.  I'm sure it won't happen like that all the time but if you can get two consistently, that's gold.  Have to run this for a week or two and see how well it fares.

 

    NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
    Harrogate
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    Posted: June 24, 2005, 6:09 pm - IP Logged

    Good to see RA works on other lottery games. Not being American I've never encountered these 'Pick n' games lots of people here play. I'm guessing it uses a mechanical draw system.

      NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
      Harrogate
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      Posted: July 25, 2005, 2:57 pm - IP Logged

      As an academic exercise I thought I'd calculate the total number of trajectories in the attractor for the lottery (it's a strange attractor, meaning lots of trajectories). The number is astronomically large, but I was expecting that. First, some simplifying assumptions.

      I'll assume the attractor is based on a 6 from 49 game. This mean 13,983,816 combinations in total. Next, that the game only draws each combination once (at the rate of one draw a week it would run for 268,919 years!)

      Now, how many permutations of 13,983,816 combinations are there? This is where the numbers take on a life of their own (a permutation is a given arrangement of objects). The permutations of k-size from n objects is given by:

      n! / (n - k)!

      where ! is the factorial function. For the 13,983,816 lottery number combinations the number of permutations is therefore:

      13983816! / 13983810! ~ 7.47745 x 10^42

      How does this compare to other large numbers? Surprisingly, it's quite small. The number of elementary particles in the universe is estimated to be 10^80. A googol is 10^100. A googolplex is ten to the power of a googol, 10^(10^100).

      So 10^42 is a mere tiddler. Does it have a name? In the American system, 10^42 is a tredecillion, in the British a septillion, and under the proposed Greek system a tetradekillion. Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC) was the first mathematician to start naming large numbers, in his work 'The Sand Reckoner'; one of his smaller units was the myriad, or 10,000.

      What does the Lottery attractor look like? I'm hoping it's something geometrically pretty, like the famous "butterfly wings" of the Lorenz attractor. Then again, the thing could look like a rat's nest.  You can see a beautiful rendition of the Lorenz attractor at: http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/~pbourke/fractals/lorenz/

      Where does this leave recurrence analysis? RA peers into the attractor to try and see which trajectory is being played out (and therefore which numbers are going to be drawn). Sometimes it approaches the actual one and predicts maybe three numbers. Given there are over 10^42 trajectories, that isn't bad...

        bigdaddy's avatar - aviator2 1.jpg
        BETWEEN OAKRIDGE AND WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB
        United States
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        June 10, 2003
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        Posted: July 25, 2005, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

        take # produced and throw in a wheel!!!!!

        Relax,Bigdaddy has your number!!!!!

        Pi is the way...

        turning $30 or less into thousands everyday!!

        here we go steelers ..here we go---------stairway to seven 

        TIME FOR THE LOMBARDI TROPHY TO  COME  HOME..

          NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
          Harrogate
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          Posted: July 26, 2005, 12:03 am - IP Logged

          Most of the people here are American, so much mention is made of wheels. You'll have to forgive my ignorance, but what is a wheel? (we obviously play differently here in the UK).

            Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

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            November 26, 2004
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            Posted: July 26, 2005, 12:55 am - IP Logged

            Hi Nemesys,

            A wheel is a reduction of N numbers of your Lotto in less possible lines matching a desired guarantee. You could see examples here in lottery post in section wheels or in many websites, just search for lotto wheels in google or any other search engine.

            Example of Pick 6 wheel:


            Source La Joya Covering Repository

            (V,K,T)=7,6,3,3

            1 2 3 4 5 6

            1 2 3 4 5 7

            1 2 3 4 6 7

            1 2 3 5 6 7

            Regards

            El pensamiento ordena el caos..

            http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com


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              Posted: July 26, 2005, 3:16 am - IP Logged

              You know!!!!!You people think waaaayyyyy tooo muuuuuucccchhhhh!!!!...........................................wait a minute....you forgot the infinitesimally small scratches that the balls made on the inner surface of those lottery ball tubes.................."The complex explanation of any result will always embrace, and yield to  simplicity".

              I got your VRA software right here. Just joking......

                MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

                Norway
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                December 10, 2004
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                Posted: July 26, 2005, 5:25 am - IP Logged
                   

                Most of the people here are American, so much mention is made of wheels. You'll have to forgive my ignorance, but what is a wheel? (we obviously play differently here in the UK).

                Wheels are pretty common in Europe as well as the rest of the world.

                Reduced wheels are the most popular.

                  NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                  Harrogate
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                  Posted: July 26, 2005, 9:40 am - IP Logged

                  Thank you for the explanations. I see what you mean now. In the UK some people clearly will use a wheel, I've just never heard anyone here call it that.

                    NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                    Harrogate
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                    Posted: July 26, 2005, 9:16 pm - IP Logged

                    Latest update to my site: VRA analysis of column 1 of the UK main draw (draws 900 - 1000). The values of dimension and delay are falling into a fairly small range, which is what's required for meaningful predictions. This is really a preliminary set of data; there are gaps which I'd like to try and fill, but even with the data in this raw state it's useful.

                    I decided a column-by-column analysis/prediction might be more accurate.

                    The new page is: http://zarnia.250free.com/analysis.htm

                      NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                      Harrogate
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                      Posted: August 1, 2005, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

                      Latest site update: changes made to the main page text, more links added, and VRA results for UK Thunderball draws 399 - 449 on the analysis page.

                        paurths's avatar - underground
                        Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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                        Posted: August 2, 2005, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

                        Hi, i play Belgian lotto,  642 with powerball (or whatever it is named)

                         

                        Have spent the last few nights and days testing VRA, damn it takes incredible time to test fully and i'm dead beat, but finally came up with something, or nothing.
                        Something that costs a lot of money... When asked the VRA-soft to return 19 numbers (instead of 6), i hit the 7 numbers serveral times (so far 7 out of 16), for 3 periods over the entire period of 22 years (only since 1983, b/c eversince then there are 42 balls instead of 40)
                        can be sheer luck also ofcourse. (lots of experimenting with "neighbors")

                        Pick3 doesn't work too well for Belgium. It works sometimes, but then it completely misses all draws for longer periods. ('tho i found some sort of lineair pattorn (is this the correct word?) and it is expected to return within 5 weeks)

                        Another game, keno, where the machine draws 20 numbers, VRA completely fails (so fair). Well, not really completely, it misses most numbers by just 1 or 2. Problem is ofcourse to know exactly what numbers it misses...

                        Anyway, this looks like a great tool to experiment with.
                        Lots of trouble 'tho, when asking VRA for more than, e.g. 14 numbers. The chart is making me guess what number it is actually showing...

                        Also have a "gutfeeling" that VRA will return better results when the .dat-file holds the numbers in the exact order they were drawn.
                          NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                          Harrogate
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                          Posted: August 3, 2005, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

                          The periodicity of predictions was something I had expected - a run of hits, followed by a longer dry period (you can see it in the phase space portraits).

                          I didn't think RA would work on bingo (that's what we call keno in the UK). One behaviour of VRA predictions I have noticed is that as you gradually increment the values of dimension and delay, predicted values "bounce" around a certain number (often the one that actually gets drawn).

                          Draw order is something I mean to get around to (unless someone else looks into first).

                            paurths's avatar - underground
                            Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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                            Posted: August 3, 2005, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

                            The periodicity of predictions was something I had expected - a run of hits, followed by a longer dry period (you can see it in the phase space portraits).

                            I didn't think RA would work on bingo (that's what we call keno in the UK). One behaviour of VRA predictions I have noticed is that as you gradually increment the values of dimension and delay, predicted values "bounce" around a certain number (often the one that actually gets drawn).

                            Draw order is something I mean to get around to (unless someone else looks into first).

                            I haven't read enough about recurrence analysis, but i guess the "squares" that show up when adjusting the dimension and/orf delay, somehow hints towards the prediction parameters.

                             

                            The spatio-temporal entropy looks promising, or so i thought....
                            I figured, the more drawings, the more accurate the prediction will be (low entropy), but instead the entropy gets sometimes amazingly low when only using the last 3 months or so. But, like i said before, there's alot of reading & learning left.

                            Also with pick3 it bounces all the time around the box-combination. Almost 80% of the predicting only misses out 1 number, by value=1. Then again, it goes in dry periods, out of the blue.

                            I've searched all over "the place" for draw-order-files, to no avail... If you have any, i'll be happy to look into them once i get to know how to set the best parameters for each "period". (within several years or so... Wink )

                              NemeSys's avatar - Nemesis
                              Harrogate
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                              Posted: August 3, 2005, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

                              Spatio-temporal entropy is just a measure of noise (randomness) in a system. A more useful measure is correlation dimension (click on 'analysis' then 'General Nonlinear Analysis'). CD calculates the most likely optimal value of dimension for a given time delay.

                              As for draw order files, you can find one in the zipped Excel file at: http://www.jcwchan.clara.co.uk/lottery1.htm

                              Go down the page about halfway then click on 'Click here to download'. The password is 'extra'. After you've unzipped it and loaded it into Excel, click on the fourth tab, 'UK Order'. It's current up to 16th July.

                              Alternatively, go to: http://lottery.merseyworld.com/Winning_index.html

                              This has a configurable display of results.

                                 
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